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Dan Fox |
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February 7, 2008 12:00 am
Schrodinger's Bat: The Toughest of Them All? |
Tweaking a simple projection system, and addressing whether or not the AL Central is really the game's toughest division.
"Never make predictions, especially about the future."
--Casey Stengel
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January 31, 2008 12:00 am
Schrodinger's Bat: Back to the Drawing Board |
With a nod to the wisdom of crowds, Dan revisits Simple Fielding Runs and outfield defense.
"I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work."
--Thomas A. Edison
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January 30, 2008 12:00 am
Player Profile: James Shields |
Already well-rewarded for a few years of excellent major league service after uninspiring minor league performances, how'd he get from there to here?
Recently the Rays locked up James Shields to an extension, one that serves both parties very well. Shields gets paid well with a guaranteed contract for a few seasons before he would have been arbitration-eligible, and the Rays win out even if Shields is only a league-average pitcher for the duration of the guaranteed years of the deal. The questions we are interested in today have to do with just what can be expected from Shields in the near future, and how he came to be in his current position.
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January 24, 2008 12:00 am
Schrodinger's Bat: Simple Fielding Runs Version 1.0 |
With a few minor tweaks, Simple Fielding Runs version 1.0 is ready for release.
"Let him hit it, you've got fielders behind you."
--Alexander Cartwright, attributed by Bob Chieger in Voices of Baseball
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January 17, 2008 12:00 am
Schrodinger's Bat: For the Sake of Completeness |
Sorting and separating the best and worst baserunners from the rest.
"I don't really like to run, and that's why I didn't go out for track in high school. I ain't no fool, I see those dudes running around a track for a living. I wouldn't want to run against them. I wouldn't want to embarrass myself."
--Willie Wilson
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January 10, 2008 12:00 am
Schrodinger's Bat: Getting Shifty |
Repositioning the infield and its effects on history, defense, and batting.
When asked what he did in the winter when there is no baseball, Rogers Hornsby famously replied that he would "stare out the window and wait for spring." Fortunately, these days fans of the game have plenty to keep them occupied in the cold winter months. Not least amongst the off-season events is looking forward to the baseball-oriented Christmas loot that keeps us busy until spring. While not the massive haul of our Jay Jaffe, I'll keep warm with a new Cubs fleece from my lovely wife and keep occupied with Lee Lowenfish's hefty biography of Branch Rickey titled Branch Rickey: Baseball's Ferocious Gentleman and Cait Murphy's romp through the 1908 season Crazy '08: How a Cast of Cranks, Rogues, Boneheads, and Magnates Created the Greatest Year in Baseball History; both additions to my library courtesy of my in-laws.
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December 20, 2007 12:00 am
Schrodinger's Bat: The Issue of the Day, and Ranging into the Outfield |
Before moving on to assessing outfielders through SFR, some thoughts on the import of Senator Mitchell's findings.
"Athletes who are chemically propelled to victory do not merely
overvalue winning, they misunderstand why winning is properly valued."
George Will, "Barry Bonds' Enhancement," Newsweek, May 21, 2007
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December 13, 2007 12:00 am
Schrodinger's Bat: Inching Along |
Fueled by reader feedback, Dan makes some adjustments to his new defensive metric.
"The subject may appear an insignificant one, but we shall see that it possesses some interest, and the maxim 'de minimis lex non curat'--the law is not concerned with trifles--does not apply to science."
--Charles Darwin, from the preface of his book The Formation of Vegetable Mould, Through the Action of Worms, With Observations on Their Habits (1881)
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December 6, 2007 12:00 am
Schrodinger's Bat: Defense and Alphabet Soup |
RF, FR, FRAA, FRAR, UZR, ZR, PMR, DRA, SAFE, and, for the first time, Dan introduces SFR.
"Defense to me is the key to playing baseball."
--Willie Mays
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November 29, 2007 12:00 am
Schrodinger's Bat: Always Increasing |
It's the season of giving, and Dan's got something every stathead wants in his or her stocking--BIPChart 2.5
"Software is like entropy. It is difficult to grasp, weighs nothing, and obeys the second law of thermodynamics; i.e. it always increases."
-Norman R. Augustine
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November 15, 2007 12:00 am
Schrodinger's Bat: Minor League Baserunning Awards |
With awards season upon us, Dan looks to the minors to crown this year's best and worst baserunners down on the farm.
"Maybe being a minor league baseball player makes you insane. Maybe you just have to be crazy to be a minor league baseball player."
--Jim Bouton, from I'm Glad You Didn't Take it Personally
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November 8, 2007 12:00 am
Schrodinger's Bat: The Biggest Booms and Busts? |
Dan invests a bit of time to come up with something pretty authoritative on the subject.
"The present is never our goal: the past and present are our means: the future alone is our goal. Thus, we never live but we hope to live; and always hoping to be happy, it is inevitable that we will never be so."
--Blaise Pascal
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Schrodinger's Bat: Reminiscing with SFR, the Sequel
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