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Dan Brooks 

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04-21

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 432: The Weekend of Unwritten Rules
by
Ben Lindbergh and Dan Brooks

04-08

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BP Unfiltered: Mark Appel: A PITCHf/x First Look
by
Dan Brooks

03-03

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47

Framing and Blocking Pitches: A Regressed, Probabilistic Model
by
Harry Pavlidis and Dan Brooks

01-29

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28

Throw the Flag
by
Dan Brooks and Russell A. Carleton

01-16

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2

BP Unfiltered: RISPy Business
by
Dan Brooks

09-23

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7

Pebble Hunting: Pedro Hernandez and the Rashomon Project
by
Sam Miller, R.J. Anderson, Dan Brooks and Dan Rozenson

10-05

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3

Advance Scout
by
Dan Brooks

09-27

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3

Baseball Prospectus News: Announcing the PITCHf/x Matchup Analysis Tool
by
Dan Brooks

09-14

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2

Baseball Prospectus News: Introducing Pitch Sequence Visualizations
by
Daniel Mack and Dan Brooks

08-30

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1

BP Unfiltered: Is Stephen Strasburg Wearing Down?
by
Dan Brooks

08-17

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4

BP Unfiltered: Clay Buchholz Does the Splits
by
Dan Brooks

08-14

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11

PITCHf/x Profile: Dissecting the Decline of Josh Beckett
by
Dan Brooks

08-10

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1

BP Unfiltered: A PITCHf/x Companion Piece on Jered Weaver
by
Dan Brooks

08-09

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1

BP Unfiltered: Yu Darvish with Two Strikes
by
Dan Brooks

08-08

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9

PITCHf/x Mailbag: Swing Tendencies on 3-0 Counts
by
Dan Brooks and Harry Pavlidis

07-23

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BP Announcements: Sabermetrics, Scouting, and the Science of Baseball
by
Dan Brooks

07-13

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5

BP Announcements: Normalized Hitter/Pitcher Profiles Have Arrived
by
Dan Brooks and Harry Pavlidis

07-12

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24

Baseball Prospectus News: Introducing the BP Pitcher Profiles
by
Dan Brooks and Harry Pavlidis

07-09

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22

Baseball Prospectus News: Introducing the BP Hitter Profiles
by
Dan Brooks and Harry Pavlidis

06-19

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4

BP Unfiltered: Knuckleballing to the Count
by
Dan Brooks

04-30

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6

BP Unfiltered: Sabermetrics, Scouting, and the Science of Baseball
by
Dan Brooks

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Ben and Dan discuss the weekend's news and transactions, including a trio of unwritten rules violations.

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2013 first overall pick Mark Appel made an exhibition start in Houston, and PITCHf/x was watching.

Earlier this week we got our first look from a pitch tracking system at Mark Appel, the first overall selection in the 2013 draft and one of Houston’s (and baseball’s) top prospects. The data come from a preseason exhibition contest that was played on the final day of spring training—but because it was played in Houston, and because the PITCHf/x cameras were operational and outputting information, we got some stats to supplement the scouting reports we’ve read.

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The best blockers and receivers, revealed.

[T]he expected runs produced from each plate appearance starting with a strike decreases by .029 runs and increases by .040 for every ball thrown on a first pitch. In other words, having as many of those 0-0 'striballs' called strikes can greatly impact the outcome of the game.

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January 29, 2014 6:04 am

Throw the Flag

28

Dan Brooks and Russell A. Carleton

Could the manager challenge system sink expanded instant replay?

About that instant replay system that MLB put in place—we found a little problem with it. It started with us asking a pretty easy question. What is the best strategy for a manager to use in deciding when to throw “the flag” to challenge a call? We were sitting around talking about it, and the answer that we came up with is actually kinda scary: Managers should just throw that flag for any close play, the first time that they see one. When we say any close play, we mean just about anything that they have a smidgen of belief could be overturned by consulting a replay. And they shouldn’t fear throwing it even in the first inning, or throwing it to contest something that would give them only a trivial advantage.

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With the Pitch Usage tool on BrooksBaseball, you can see how certain pitchers vary their offerings depending on the situation.

I’m writing this blog post with the knowledge that a lot of people reading this, especially those who are “inside” baseball, will be shaking their heads at the monitor once they finish. We're used to dismissing RISP statistics because the sample sizes are too small. In this case, though, we appear to see real and meaningful differences.

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Four authors used different methods to watch the same pitcher make the same start. These are their reviews of that pitcher's performance.

In the movie Rashomon, a samurai is murdered. Four witnesses give four accounts of the murder, and out of one scenario come four very different narratives and three different killers. Do more angles get you closer to truth, or further from it? It's not clear.

What follows is an experiment. Four of us took a starter that none of us knew anything about: Pedro Hernandez, a Twins lefty making his 12th career start, on Saturday against the A’s. Without doing any research on Hernandez, the four of us watched the start from four different angles:

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October 5, 2012 5:26 am

Advance Scout

3

Dan Brooks

Even if you figure out what Darvish has done, you might not know what he's about to do.

Today brings baseball’s first wild-card play-in games. It also brings another baseball first: Yu Darvish’s first start against the Baltimore Orioles, scheduled to get underway at 8:37 PM ET.

You can bet that the prospect of facing Darvish for the first time in a high-stakes game has the Orioles worked into an advanced scouting frenzy. Their season—a magical one, at that—hinges on their ability to analyze (and effectively attack) a pitcher whom their hitters have never seen.

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A new way to visualize and analyze every batter-pitcher matchup from the PITCHf/x era.

Just in time for the playoffs, we’re bringing you a way to get detailed information on every batter-pitcher matchup via our new Matchup Analysis Tool, found here and also accessible through the “PITCHf/x Matchups” dropdown link on the “Statistics” tab of the navbar at the top of the page.

The Matchup Analysis Tool allows you to select a particular pitcher and batter and visualize every time they’ve faced each other during the PITCHf/x era (partial 2007, complete 2008-2012). As an example, let’s take Prince Fielder vs. CC Sabathia.

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Want to know not just what pitches a pitcher throws, but where, when, and in what order he throws them? Now you can.

At Brooks Baseball, we’ve built a repository where you can access almost any information about any pitcher’s pitches and be confident that the pitch types were identified correctly. For example, you can ask how many times batters swung and missed at a Stephen Strasburg changeup, how often batters hit Chris Sale’s slider for a groundball, or what the overall called-strike rate is for Felix Hernandez’s fastball.

But PITCHf/x databasing is still in its infancy. Pitching is not the sum of individual statistics about individual pitches any more than a piece of music is the sum of an individual set of notes. Pitching is a sequence of events—the previous pitch’s execution may be as germane to the outcome of the at-bat as the current pitch’s execution. We often hear about how a pitcher might go up in the zone with a high fastball to raise a batter’s eye level and then down in the zone with a curveball. None of that was captured in the maze of tables and charts already available.

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Was Stephen Strasburg's velocity loss during his last start atypical? And if so, should we be worried?

ESPN Stats and Information published an article about Stephen Strasburg’s less-than-successful start on Tuesday that noted, “Strasburg’s velocity declined as his start went on. His heater averaged 96.6 MPH in the first two innings and 94.8 MPH after. “

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Clay Buchholz is known for throwing a nasty changeup, but he's added a new off-speed pitch to his arsenal in 2012.

Clay Buchholz has added a splitter this year to go with his well-known (and devastating) changeup. We first noticed this back when he was throwing one or two per game, but now it’s not unusual to see him throw a nice cluster of splitters in each start. A comparison between his pre-splitter and post-splitter pitch graphs is shown below:

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Josh Beckett isn't the ace he was in 2007, but what about him has changed over the past five seasons?

In 2007, Josh Beckett finished second in the AL Cy Young voting. He led the league with 20 wins. He was a 4.8 PWARP player, good for third in MLB. He struck out 8.7 batters per nine innings and finished with 194 punchouts.

Fast forward to 2012. Beckett’s win-loss record is 5-9; more importantly, his walk rate is up, and his strikeout rate is down. He’s been worth 0.5 PWARP, good for 174th in baseball.

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