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Colin Wyers 

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02-13

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24

Feature Focus: PECOTA Weighted Means Spreadsheet
by
Colin Wyers

11-01

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36

Manufactured Runs: Moments of Transition, Moments of Revelation
by
Colin Wyers

10-02

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9

Playoff Prospectus: NL Wild Card Game Recap: Pirates 6, Reds 2
by
Colin Wyers

09-19

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1

Reworking WARP: The Importance of a Living Replacement Level
by
Colin Wyers

09-11

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17

Reworking WARP: Why We Need Replacement Level
by
Colin Wyers

09-05

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22

Reworking WARP: The Uncertainty of Offense, Part Two
by
Colin Wyers

08-28

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3

BP Unfiltered: 2013 Hitter Uncertainty
by
Colin Wyers

08-28

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35

Reworking WARP: The Overlooked Uncertainty of Offense
by
Colin Wyers

08-27

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12

Manufactured Runs: Are The Astros Really the Most Profitable Team in History?
by
Colin Wyers

08-21

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57

Reworking WARP: The Series Ahead
by
Colin Wyers

08-13

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21

Manufactured Runs: SABR and the Importance of Preserving Sabermetric History
by
Colin Wyers

08-05

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21

Manufactured Runs: Biogenesis and Baseball's Post-Human Present
by
Colin Wyers

08-02

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3

Manufactured Runs: SABR Recap: On Motion Trackers, and Exciting Games
by
Colin Wyers

08-01

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3

Manufactured Runs: The Phillies President Speaks to SABR
by
Colin Wyers

07-25

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3

Feature Focus: Daily Hit List
by
Colin Wyers

07-10

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6

Manufactured Runs: The Mystery of the Missing .500 Teams, Part Two
by
Colin Wyers

07-05

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14

Manufactured Runs: Ruben Amaro and the Ryan Howard Reality
by
Colin Wyers

06-28

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14

Manufactured Runs: The Mystery of the Missing .500 Teams
by
Colin Wyers

06-27

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7

Feature Focus: Player Cards
by
Colin Wyers

06-20

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7

Feature Focus: Cot's Contracts and the Compensation Browser
by
Colin Wyers

05-27

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5

BP Unfiltered: Productive and Unproductive Outs, TAv Edition
by
Colin Wyers

05-24

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11

BP Unfiltered: Votto v. Phillips, The People's Case
by
Colin Wyers

05-14

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51

Manufactured Runs: Listen to What the Heyman Said
by
Colin Wyers

05-08

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18

BP Announcements: Rest-of-Season PECOTAs
by
Colin Wyers

04-30

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3

BP Unfiltered: The Love Song Of P. Scott Proefrock
by
Colin Wyers

04-26

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46

Manufactured Runs: The Hawk Trap
by
Colin Wyers

04-22

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8

Manufactured Runs: The King in Cubbie Blue
by
Colin Wyers

04-20

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0

BP Unfiltered: Who's on First, Jean Segura Edition
by
Colin Wyers

03-28

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23

BP Announcements: PECOTA Percentiles Are Here
by
Colin Wyers

02-20

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40

The Socratic Approach to PECOTA
by
Ben Lindbergh and Colin Wyers

02-15

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18

Baseball Prospectus News: Introducing the 2013 Playoff Odds Report
by
Colin Wyers

02-11

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103

Baseball Prospectus News: Now Arriving: PECOTA, Depth Charts, and the PFM
by
Colin Wyers and Rob McQuown

01-10

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46

Manufactured Runs: What Hall of Fame Voters are Doing to the Hall of Fame
by
Colin Wyers

01-08

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15

BP Unfiltered: Is Jack Morris the Best Pitcher of an Era?
by
Colin Wyers

12-26

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6

Transaction Analysis: Stocking Stuffers and Holiday Turkeys
by
R.J. Anderson and Colin Wyers

12-21

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10

BP Unfiltered: The Philosophy of Park Factors
by
Colin Wyers

12-08

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2

BP Unfiltered: Walking in a Spreadsheet Wonderland
by
Colin Wyers

11-08

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3

Manufactured Runs: What the Recent Trend Toward Inexperienced Managers Means
by
Colin Wyers

11-03

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8

Transaction Analysis: What We Would Have Said About the Dan Haren Deal That Didn't Happen
by
Colin Wyers

10-30

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32

BP Unfiltered: Do the Giants Signal the End of Moneyball?
by
Colin Wyers

10-17

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32

Manufactured Runs: Caution: Narratives Being Built
by
Colin Wyers

10-11

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18

Manufactured Runs: Is the 2-3 Format Fair?
by
Colin Wyers

10-03

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8

Manufactured Runs: Mariners to Move Safeco Fences In
by
Colin Wyers

10-02

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6

BP Unfiltered: Putting the V in MVP
by
Colin Wyers

09-26

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51

BP Unfiltered: A Modest Point About the AL MVP Race
by
Colin Wyers

09-21

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17

Manufactured Runs: The Very Long Night of Melky Cabrera
by
Colin Wyers

09-12

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5

Manufactured Runs: Searching for Fatigue in Stephen Strasburg
by
Colin Wyers

09-07

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15

BP Unfiltered: Do the Dodgers Lack Chemistry?
by
Colin Wyers

09-05

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6

Manufactured Runs: How Much Team Age Matters
by
Colin Wyers

08-27

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3

BP Unfiltered: Ethier's Interference
by
Colin Wyers

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A holiday carol.

‘Sheet cells zing, are you listening,
In B12, Excel’s arithmeticin’
A beautiful sight,
We're happy tonight.
Walking in a spreadsheet wonderland.





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The Rockies and Marlins recently hired managers without any prior major-league managerial experience, and they're not the only teams to do it. Colin explains it all.

The Colorado Rockies have announced the hiring of new manager Walt Weiss, and it’s an interesting case study in what might be a new trend in managerial hiring. Weiss had a long and fine career as a player, split mainly between Oakland and Colorado. After that, he turned to coaching… at the high school level.  Weiss is making the jump straight to the majors from Regis Jesuit High School (although notably he has been a minor-league instructor and scout in the Rockies’ system until now.)

Weiss wasn’t even the most inexperienced manager under consideration by the Rockies; they were seriously considering Jason Giambi, who actually played for the team in 2012. Such a thing would not have been entirely unprecedented—through much of baseball history it wasn’t unheard of to have players themselves managing—but it’s certainly not very common these days.

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The Angels didn't trade Dan Haren to the Cubs for Carlos Marmol on Friday night. But if they had, this would have been our reaction.

On Friday night, it was reported by several sources that the Angels and Cubs had agreed to swap starter Dan Haren—whose $15.5 option for 2013 was due to be picked up or declined by 12 AM ET—for reliever Carlos Marmol. Ultimately, the Cubs pulled the offer off the table, killing the deal, and the Angels declined Haren’s option, making him a free agent. But before that happened, Colin Wyers wrote up a reaction to the rumored transaction. This is what we would have said had the trade gone through.

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In a word, "no."

From Bruce Jenkins, writing in the San Francisco Chronicle:

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October 17, 2012 5:00 am

Manufactured Runs: Caution: Narratives Being Built

32

Colin Wyers

Are narratives bad for baseball analysis?

When I was younger, I was (you’ll be shocked by this, I’m sure) fascinated by space. I learned about the planets and their orbits and their names and their colors (and I learned that there were nine of them—oops). Among my prized collection of space-themed t-shirts was one from the Adler Planetarium in Chicago, which depicted the planets in their orbit around the sun. I loved looking at that shirt and picturing the planets as they moved throughout their orbits. And I learned about distant stars and how they worked and what the constellations were.

Now. Learning about the gasses that make up the atmosphere of Venus (hint: if you are ever on Venus, BRING AIR) is pretty cut and dried; it is objective. Learning that it’s called Venus and that it’s a planet is somewhat less so (especially now that there is now some actual controversy over what, exactly, is and isn’t a planet). But it’s a discussion grounded in fact, where the disputes are largely about how we express the reality, not the underlying reality.

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October 11, 2012 11:58 am

Manufactured Runs: Is the 2-3 Format Fair?

18

Colin Wyers

Has the Division Series format for 2012 put some teams at a home field disadvantage?

Today, the Oakland A’s and Detroit Tigers face off in an elimination game for both teams, with the winner advancing to the League Championship Series round. The A’s looked almost certain to be eliminated last night until they mustered some late-inning heroics, scraping together a three-run ninth against Tigers closer Jose Valverde.

On paper, the A’s were the higher seed coming into this series and thus were entitled to the greater home field advantage. But without last night’s miraculous win, the A’s were never going to see the benefit of their better record, due to the format of the five-game series. In order to cut down on travel days, MLB has switched to a 2-3 format—two games at home for the lower seed, then three games at home for the higher seed. In the 2-2-1 format it replaced, the team with the better record gets to take, well, advantage of their home field advantage if the series runs to three games or five games, with only a four-game series depriving them of that benefit. In the current setup, the series has to run five games for them to see the benefit of their higher seeding.

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October 3, 2012 2:12 pm

Manufactured Runs: Mariners to Move Safeco Fences In

8

Colin Wyers

A look at Seattle's plans to move in the fences of their ballpark to boost offense.

Over time, baseball teams develop identities, and even if the players change, the identities stay the same. The Yankees (and the Red Sox, for that matter) have cultivated a slow, plodding, methodical style of three-true-outcomes baseball that scores lots of runs and takes its time doing it. The Cubs, until recently, were the team who struck out the world when pitching and wouldn’t take a walk to save their lives. The Twins were all about manufactured runs and control pitchers.

The Mariners have an identity, based largely around 1-0 losses and the brutal, crushing inevitability of death. And some of this can be attributed to the players—this is the team that has tried Adam Kennedy as a designated hitter in recent years. But as Egon Spengler put it, “It's not the girl, Peter, it's the building!” Safeco Park has been absolutely brutal on offense. This has probably not had much of an effect on wins and losses—what Safeco takes way from offense it gives back to pitching and defense. So Safeco isn’t causing the Mariners to lose, it’s just subtracting from the sum total of joy and happiness in the universe.

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What does valuable mean?

Every year, at this time, there is a debate over what "valuable" means, in terms of Most Valuable Players. The instructions to voters say: "There is no clear-cut definition of what Most Valuable means. It is up to the individual voter to decide who was the Most Valuable Player in each league to his team." The rules of voting do provide some guidelines:

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One question that seems to have gone unasked.

I know the crowd I'm writing for, and I know where 90 percent of my readers (if not more) are going to fall on the issue of whether or not Miguel Cabrera or Mike Trout deserves to be named the Most Valuable Player in the American League. And I know this has been discussed to death, but I do want to raise one little point—just raise it, nothing more or less.

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Does it really matter who wins the batting title?

It would be an exaggeration, but not TOO great of one, to say that everything I’ve learned in life I’ve learned from the Christian Bible, The Book, Babylon 5 and the British sitcom Yes, Minister. In the last of those, cabinet minister Jim Hacker has to deal with the difficulty of balancing the demands of politics with the machinations of the civil servants supposedly serving him (and occasionally, with the notion of actually doing the right thing).

In one episode, the new leader of the fictional country of Buranda is visiting the UK in hopes of purchasing some oil rigs that the government is very keen to sell to them. Hacker has set up a visit between Buranda’s president and the queen as a way to deliver a state visit to some “marginal constituencies” (the equivalent of swing districts) immediately before an election. His brilliant plan seems to backfire, though, after the leader of Buranda gives them an advance copy of the speech he plans to make, where he urges the Scots and Irish to fight British oppression. A panicked Hacker sounds out his chief source of advice, Sir Humphrey Appleby:

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September 12, 2012 11:05 am

Manufactured Runs: Searching for Fatigue in Stephen Strasburg

5

Colin Wyers

Does a look at Stephen Strasburg's PITCHf/x data reveal what might have caused the Nationals to shut him down early?

Tonight in New York is the “not” heard round the world: the game Stephen Strasburg would have been pitching if the Nationals hadn’t shut him down ahead of schedule, due to problems “mentally concentrating” that the Nationals blame on the level of media attention to the team’s plans to shut him down.

The Nationals have a strong lead in the NL East, so they are unlikely to miss his performance in one game, or for the rest of the regular season, very much. The larger issue surrounding Strasburg is the impact of losing him for the postseason. When the Nationals instituted their plan for Strasburg at the beginning of the season, it made a lot of sense for a young team with slim hopes of making the playoffs to protect one of their most valuable (and most fragile) players from injury. With the Nationals heavily favored to make the playoffs, though, some Nationals fans are likely to be disappointed if their team’s ace isn’t available for a single game of the postseason.

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An alternative explanation for their lack of success since the big trade.

So, Ken Rosenthal laid down the gauntlet this morning:

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