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Happy Thanksgiving! Regularly Scheduled Articles Will Resume Monday, December 1

Colin Wyers 

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02-13

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24

Feature Focus: PECOTA Weighted Means Spreadsheet
by
Colin Wyers

11-01

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36

Manufactured Runs: Moments of Transition, Moments of Revelation
by
Colin Wyers

10-02

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9

Playoff Prospectus: NL Wild Card Game Recap: Pirates 6, Reds 2
by
Colin Wyers

09-19

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1

Reworking WARP: The Importance of a Living Replacement Level
by
Colin Wyers

09-11

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17

Reworking WARP: Why We Need Replacement Level
by
Colin Wyers

09-05

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22

Reworking WARP: The Uncertainty of Offense, Part Two
by
Colin Wyers

08-28

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3

BP Unfiltered: 2013 Hitter Uncertainty
by
Colin Wyers

08-28

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35

Reworking WARP: The Overlooked Uncertainty of Offense
by
Colin Wyers

08-27

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12

Manufactured Runs: Are The Astros Really the Most Profitable Team in History?
by
Colin Wyers

08-21

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57

Reworking WARP: The Series Ahead
by
Colin Wyers

08-13

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21

Manufactured Runs: SABR and the Importance of Preserving Sabermetric History
by
Colin Wyers

08-05

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21

Manufactured Runs: Biogenesis and Baseball's Post-Human Present
by
Colin Wyers

08-02

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3

Manufactured Runs: SABR Recap: On Motion Trackers, and Exciting Games
by
Colin Wyers

08-01

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3

Manufactured Runs: The Phillies President Speaks to SABR
by
Colin Wyers

07-25

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3

Feature Focus: Daily Hit List
by
Colin Wyers

07-10

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6

Manufactured Runs: The Mystery of the Missing .500 Teams, Part Two
by
Colin Wyers

07-05

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14

Manufactured Runs: Ruben Amaro and the Ryan Howard Reality
by
Colin Wyers

06-28

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14

Manufactured Runs: The Mystery of the Missing .500 Teams
by
Colin Wyers

06-27

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7

Feature Focus: Player Cards
by
Colin Wyers

06-20

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7

Feature Focus: Cot's Contracts and the Compensation Browser
by
Colin Wyers

05-27

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5

BP Unfiltered: Productive and Unproductive Outs, TAv Edition
by
Colin Wyers

05-24

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11

BP Unfiltered: Votto v. Phillips, The People's Case
by
Colin Wyers

05-14

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51

Manufactured Runs: Listen to What the Heyman Said
by
Colin Wyers

05-08

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18

BP Announcements: Rest-of-Season PECOTAs
by
Colin Wyers

04-30

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3

BP Unfiltered: The Love Song Of P. Scott Proefrock
by
Colin Wyers

04-26

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46

Manufactured Runs: The Hawk Trap
by
Colin Wyers

04-22

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8

Manufactured Runs: The King in Cubbie Blue
by
Colin Wyers

04-20

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0

BP Unfiltered: Who's on First, Jean Segura Edition
by
Colin Wyers

03-28

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23

BP Announcements: PECOTA Percentiles Are Here
by
Colin Wyers

02-20

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40

The Socratic Approach to PECOTA
by
Ben Lindbergh and Colin Wyers

02-15

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18

Baseball Prospectus News: Introducing the 2013 Playoff Odds Report
by
Colin Wyers

02-11

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103

Baseball Prospectus News: Now Arriving: PECOTA, Depth Charts, and the PFM
by
Colin Wyers and Rob McQuown

01-10

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46

Manufactured Runs: What Hall of Fame Voters are Doing to the Hall of Fame
by
Colin Wyers

01-08

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15

BP Unfiltered: Is Jack Morris the Best Pitcher of an Era?
by
Colin Wyers

12-26

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6

Transaction Analysis: Stocking Stuffers and Holiday Turkeys
by
R.J. Anderson and Colin Wyers

12-21

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10

BP Unfiltered: The Philosophy of Park Factors
by
Colin Wyers

12-08

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2

BP Unfiltered: Walking in a Spreadsheet Wonderland
by
Colin Wyers

11-08

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3

Manufactured Runs: What the Recent Trend Toward Inexperienced Managers Means
by
Colin Wyers

11-03

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8

Transaction Analysis: What We Would Have Said About the Dan Haren Deal That Didn't Happen
by
Colin Wyers

10-30

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32

BP Unfiltered: Do the Giants Signal the End of Moneyball?
by
Colin Wyers

10-17

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32

Manufactured Runs: Caution: Narratives Being Built
by
Colin Wyers

10-11

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18

Manufactured Runs: Is the 2-3 Format Fair?
by
Colin Wyers

10-03

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8

Manufactured Runs: Mariners to Move Safeco Fences In
by
Colin Wyers

10-02

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6

BP Unfiltered: Putting the V in MVP
by
Colin Wyers

09-26

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51

BP Unfiltered: A Modest Point About the AL MVP Race
by
Colin Wyers

09-21

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17

Manufactured Runs: The Very Long Night of Melky Cabrera
by
Colin Wyers

09-12

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5

Manufactured Runs: Searching for Fatigue in Stephen Strasburg
by
Colin Wyers

09-07

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15

BP Unfiltered: Do the Dodgers Lack Chemistry?
by
Colin Wyers

09-05

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6

Manufactured Runs: How Much Team Age Matters
by
Colin Wyers

08-27

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3

BP Unfiltered: Ethier's Interference
by
Colin Wyers

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Colin reviews two stats presentations from SABR's Friday schedule.

Two stats presentations on the first day of SABR.

The first is a WPA-based look at the most exciting games of all time, based on WPA adjusted for “odds of winning the World Series.” Methodology discussion was sparse to non-existent, bulk of talk is a list of games itself. Without any detail on methodology, hard to critique or approve of the methodology, and a dry recitation of quote-unquote “exciting” games is not especially exciting in and of itself.

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A review of the keynote address at this week's SABR convention in Philadelphia.

It may seem incongruous to some to have David Montgomery, president of the very traditional (and sometimes openly disdainful of sabermetrics) Philadelphia Phillies address the crowd at SABR. But it really shouldn’t. Sabermetrics is named in homage to SABR, but while Bill James’ admiration for SABR is returned by many of its members, it is a very traditional organization as well. Its membership skews very old – even older than the 2013 Phillies, believe it or not. And while you’ll find a diversity of interests at SABR (including some interested in sabermetrics, in fact), on the whole it skews heavily toward an appreciation of baseball history. The Phillies too share an appreciation for baseball’s historical record, apparently up to and including using it as a reason to sign Delmon Young. So it really is a good fit.

Montgomery opened by welcoming everyone to “his city” of Philadelphia, saying, "This is a very passionate sports town, which is great if you happen to work in sports. Well for the most part, it’s great.” He got more than a few laughs from that. He then went on to discuss the “cycles” of the Phillies, talking about the high points of the franchise (including the recent run of success. He did not elucidate where the 2013 Phillies were in the cycle, however.)

Read the full article...

The Hit List Factor and Adjusted Hit List Factor explained.

This is the city, Baseball Prospectus, The Internet. I work here. I carry a spreadsheet. My partner’s Bill Gannon. My name’s Wyers. We were working out of Feature Focus when we got a call about a Daily Hit List.

Let’s look at the navigational options first:

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Have we been underrating big-market, high-payroll teams?

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about the distribution of team wins, and the discovery that the distribution may in fact be bimodal, not normal as one might expect.

One of the predictions that came from this theory was that teams right at .500 would, counterintuitively, tend to regress away from the mean. So one thing we can do is actually check to see if the real world behaves the way we expect it to. I took all teams from 1969 on with even numbers of games and split them into “halves” of even-number games. I use scare-quotes for halves since in order to boost the sample size, I split into increments of two and kept any pair where both “halves” were within 20 games of each other. Then I looked at teams that were exactly .500 in the “before” sample— 716 teams total—and saw what they did afterward:

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July 5, 2013 5:05 pm

Manufactured Runs: Ruben Amaro and the Ryan Howard Reality

14

Colin Wyers

The Phillies can survive Ryan Howard's contract, but can they survive the GM who gave it to him?

Some baseball teams are disappointing by strange twists of fate. Some are disappointing by design. Not because they’re designed to perform poorly (although that happens, too), but because they’re given expectations contrary to reality, and when reality diverges from expectations, they continue to cling to the expectations.

The 2013 Phillies are a team modestly below .500. Given a preseason forecast of a basically .500 team, this shouldn’t be a terrible shock—baseball is a game filled with randomness, after all. But to view the Phillies as a real disappointment requires you to compare them to their run of excellence from 2007 through 2011, rather than the team they are now. General manager Ruben Amaro’s expectations, then, seem weirdly out of date, in more ways than one. When asked about the player who will most likely define Amaro’s career as a GM, he responded succinctly:

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June 28, 2013 5:00 am

Manufactured Runs: The Mystery of the Missing .500 Teams

14

Colin Wyers

If .500 is average, where are all the teams with .500 records?

Sometimes, baseball research happens because you go out looking for something and you find it. Other times, it happens because you go off looking for something else and you trip over something far more interesting. This is the latter. While looking through historic team records for another project I was working on, I came across an interesting puzzle—there were far fewer teams exactly at .500 than I would have expected. I thought maybe it was a wacky feature of the sample set I was using, but I expanded my search to nearly 50 years of Major League Baseball, and the same puzzle was still staring me in the face. So I was left with three questions: Was what I was seeing really there? Why was it happening? And what did it mean?

One of the best parts of working at Baseball Prospectus is the ability to pester the staff email list with really bizarre questions. Some people use this power to ask questions where they don’t know the answer. Those people are probably much more well-liked than I am by the other staffers. I, instead, ask questions to which I already know the answer and request that people make wild guesses without doing any research first. I do this because sometimes when I’m looking at data, it helps me to get an unbiased perspective of what someone might expect the data to look like. But to get that, you need to ask people who haven’t seen the data, because once you’ve been staring at the data for too long you expect the data to look like the data.

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A walkthrough of all the info available on BP's player cards.

It’s time for another episode of Feature Focus! Now this is the last time we’re doing the home game… I know, I know.

Oh, wait, that’s the episode of Press Your Luck where TV game shows were broken forever. Instead, we’re going to talk about the BP player cards. A key note is that I’m showing off the full cards, including subscriber-only features, so if you don’t see all of these things, you may want to get yourself a subscription.

Read the full article...

A guided tour of BP's financial tools.

Welcome to another installment of Feature Focus. I’m your host, Colin Wyers. When last we checked in with our intrepid he… oh, sorry, wrong spiel. The point of Feature Focus is to put a spotlight on what’s available at Baseball Prospectus and help guide you around.

With the trade deadline coming up soon, a lot of people are going to be wondering about player salaries and contracts. We have two products that can help with this.

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Who's costing their team the most with their situational outs in 2013?

Occasionally I get asked why such-and-such a player has a True Average that seems out of line with what their OPS (or some other offensive rate) would suggest. There's a lot of potential answers to that -- TAv is a bit more precise in how it weights various events, and it has park and league quality adjustments. But I find that most people understand those answers pretty intuitively. There's one that seems to confuse people a bit more often.

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Is it really fair to compare Joey Votto to Brandon Phillips?

So, about Joey Votto. Cincinnati.com's Paul Daugherty isn't sure he endorses how Joey Votto goes about hitting baseballs:

Read the full article...

Why Jon Heyman's questions about WAR are worth asking, and answering.

As that old pop song goes, “oops, he did it again.” Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman is asking questions about WAR:

Read the full article...

They're here.

It's my pleasure to inform you that we have started producing PECOTA updates for rest-of-season performance.

Before we get into the details, let's clarify what is being updated. The changes will affect:

Read the full article...

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