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Colin Wyers 

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02-13

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24

Feature Focus: PECOTA Weighted Means Spreadsheet
by
Colin Wyers

11-01

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36

Manufactured Runs: Moments of Transition, Moments of Revelation
by
Colin Wyers

10-02

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9

Playoff Prospectus: NL Wild Card Game Recap: Pirates 6, Reds 2
by
Colin Wyers

09-19

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1

Reworking WARP: The Importance of a Living Replacement Level
by
Colin Wyers

09-11

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17

Reworking WARP: Why We Need Replacement Level
by
Colin Wyers

09-05

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22

Reworking WARP: The Uncertainty of Offense, Part Two
by
Colin Wyers

08-28

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3

BP Unfiltered: 2013 Hitter Uncertainty
by
Colin Wyers

08-28

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35

Reworking WARP: The Overlooked Uncertainty of Offense
by
Colin Wyers

08-27

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12

Manufactured Runs: Are The Astros Really the Most Profitable Team in History?
by
Colin Wyers

08-21

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57

Reworking WARP: The Series Ahead
by
Colin Wyers

08-13

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21

Manufactured Runs: SABR and the Importance of Preserving Sabermetric History
by
Colin Wyers

08-05

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21

Manufactured Runs: Biogenesis and Baseball's Post-Human Present
by
Colin Wyers

08-02

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3

Manufactured Runs: SABR Recap: On Motion Trackers, and Exciting Games
by
Colin Wyers

08-01

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3

Manufactured Runs: The Phillies President Speaks to SABR
by
Colin Wyers

07-25

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3

Feature Focus: Daily Hit List
by
Colin Wyers

07-10

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6

Manufactured Runs: The Mystery of the Missing .500 Teams, Part Two
by
Colin Wyers

07-05

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14

Manufactured Runs: Ruben Amaro and the Ryan Howard Reality
by
Colin Wyers

06-28

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14

Manufactured Runs: The Mystery of the Missing .500 Teams
by
Colin Wyers

06-27

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7

Feature Focus: Player Cards
by
Colin Wyers

06-20

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7

Feature Focus: Cot's Contracts and the Compensation Browser
by
Colin Wyers

05-27

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5

BP Unfiltered: Productive and Unproductive Outs, TAv Edition
by
Colin Wyers

05-24

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11

BP Unfiltered: Votto v. Phillips, The People's Case
by
Colin Wyers

05-14

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51

Manufactured Runs: Listen to What the Heyman Said
by
Colin Wyers

05-08

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18

BP Announcements: Rest-of-Season PECOTAs
by
Colin Wyers

04-30

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3

BP Unfiltered: The Love Song Of P. Scott Proefrock
by
Colin Wyers

04-26

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46

Manufactured Runs: The Hawk Trap
by
Colin Wyers

04-22

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8

Manufactured Runs: The King in Cubbie Blue
by
Colin Wyers

04-20

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0

BP Unfiltered: Who's on First, Jean Segura Edition
by
Colin Wyers

03-28

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23

BP Announcements: PECOTA Percentiles Are Here
by
Colin Wyers

02-20

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40

The Socratic Approach to PECOTA
by
Ben Lindbergh and Colin Wyers

02-15

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18

Baseball Prospectus News: Introducing the 2013 Playoff Odds Report
by
Colin Wyers

02-11

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103

Baseball Prospectus News: Now Arriving: PECOTA, Depth Charts, and the PFM
by
Colin Wyers and Rob McQuown

01-10

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46

Manufactured Runs: What Hall of Fame Voters are Doing to the Hall of Fame
by
Colin Wyers

01-08

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15

BP Unfiltered: Is Jack Morris the Best Pitcher of an Era?
by
Colin Wyers

12-26

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6

Transaction Analysis: Stocking Stuffers and Holiday Turkeys
by
R.J. Anderson and Colin Wyers

12-21

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10

BP Unfiltered: The Philosophy of Park Factors
by
Colin Wyers

12-08

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2

BP Unfiltered: Walking in a Spreadsheet Wonderland
by
Colin Wyers

11-08

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3

Manufactured Runs: What the Recent Trend Toward Inexperienced Managers Means
by
Colin Wyers

11-03

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8

Transaction Analysis: What We Would Have Said About the Dan Haren Deal That Didn't Happen
by
Colin Wyers

10-30

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32

BP Unfiltered: Do the Giants Signal the End of Moneyball?
by
Colin Wyers

10-17

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32

Manufactured Runs: Caution: Narratives Being Built
by
Colin Wyers

10-11

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18

Manufactured Runs: Is the 2-3 Format Fair?
by
Colin Wyers

10-03

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8

Manufactured Runs: Mariners to Move Safeco Fences In
by
Colin Wyers

10-02

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6

BP Unfiltered: Putting the V in MVP
by
Colin Wyers

09-26

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51

BP Unfiltered: A Modest Point About the AL MVP Race
by
Colin Wyers

09-21

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17

Manufactured Runs: The Very Long Night of Melky Cabrera
by
Colin Wyers

09-12

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5

Manufactured Runs: Searching for Fatigue in Stephen Strasburg
by
Colin Wyers

09-07

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15

BP Unfiltered: Do the Dodgers Lack Chemistry?
by
Colin Wyers

09-05

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6

Manufactured Runs: How Much Team Age Matters
by
Colin Wyers

08-27

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3

BP Unfiltered: Ethier's Interference
by
Colin Wyers

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How to get all of our preseason player projections in one place.

Note: this piece was originally published on July 11, 2013.

Welcome back to another installment of Feature Focus! I’m your host, Richard Kiley. (We spared no expense.) This week, I want to talk to you about the PECOTA Weighted Means Spreadsheet.

Read the full article...

Colin thanks and bids farewell to the sabermetric community as he joins the Houston Astros.

While working on cleaning out my house recently (more about that later—but long tangents before I get to the point are a tradition around here, and I can’t well abandon that at the end, can I?), I came across a book called Understanding Solid-State Electronics. I don’t think I’ve seen it in years before now. It’s a bit dated. Actually, it was a bit dated even when I was reading it as a kid—its illustration of something that fits the Universal System Organization of sense, decide, and act is a record player.

Read the full article...

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October 2, 2013 6:00 am

Playoff Prospectus: NL Wild Card Game Recap: Pirates 6, Reds 2

9

Colin Wyers

Pittsburgh's under-the-underdog story continues.

The Pittsburgh Pirates entered Tuesday’s game the favorite team of many fans whose own teams failed to make the playoffs, with some going so far as to call upon the Reds to lose graciously as a favor to baseball fans as a whole. One suspects the Reds did not heed that call, although from the way the game was played it was somewhat difficult to be sure.

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Why and how replacement level has shifted over time.

Last week, we talked about what replacement level is, and why we need it. Now let’s talk about who replacements are, and how to find them.

What we uncovered last time is that, rather than being some wholly arbitrary baseline concocted by evil sabermetric geniuses, replacement level (and the consequences of replacement level-based analysis) in fact grow out of something fundamental to the game: the distribution of talent in baseball, and the limited number of roster spots available. So the question becomes, how do we measure the distribution of talent? What are some things we need to make sure we’re capturing?

Read the full article...

Or why none of the alternatives to replacement level works as well.

Last week, we talked about different ways to measure offensive performance. Let’s talk some about baselines. The past few weeks have had a lot of math; this time I want to step back and talk some theory (although we’ll have a fair amount of math as well.)

What’s funny is that sabermetrics is regarded as being about math first, when really the heart of the thing is theory. I and my fellow travelers have been accused of “ruining” the game with numbers. But from its earliest days, the spread of baseball was as much about newsprint filled with columns of numbers in agate type as it was about the stories written about the game. Numbers have always had an incredible power to tell us about the game of baseball, and that was as true in 1913 as it is in 2013. Scratch any columnist who talks about how stats are ruining the game and you can find a voluminous knowledge of the history of the game as told in numbers, of the records people hold and the records people haven’t managed to break.

Read the full article...

How we can acknowledge uncertainty while minimizing it as much as possible.

Last week, we talked a bit about measuring the uncertainty in our estimates of offense. I hinted at having a few additional ideas on quantifying the uncertainty involved. Let’s examine two different routes we could take, both of which would offer less uncertainty than what we quantified last week.

When we did our estimates of uncertainty last week, we compared the linear weights value of an event to the actual change in run expectancy, given the base-out states before and after the event. What we can do instead is prepare linear weights values by base-out state and find the standard error of those instead. Looking at official events:

Read the full article...

A little side note from today's WARP article.

As an aside to today's article on uncertainty in measuring offense, here's the top 20 in batting runs above average in 2013, plus the uncertainty in the offensive production:

Read the full article...

How accurate can we be when comparing hitters' performance?

Previous Installments of Reworking WARP
The Series Ahead [8/21]

When I started working on a series about revising WARP, I didn’t expect to have much to say on the subject of offense. Measuring offense is probably the least controversial part of modern sabermetrics. So why start here? I have a few reasons:


Read the full article...

No. No they aren't.

It’s that time of year again, when Forbes gives us its estimates of baseball team finances and baseball teams dispute the estimates. This year’s reporting comes with an especially sensational headline:

2013 Houston Astros: Baseball's Worst Team Is The Most Profitable In History

Read the full article...

What we'll be doing with WARP in the coming weeks, and why.

The hardest part of explaining sabermetrics to someone who’s versed in traditional baseball stats is explaining that they’re different not just in degree, but also in kind. The definition of an RBI, for instance, hasn’t changed since it was made an official statistic in 1920. The stats created by sabermetricians are much more prone to revision. Some look at this as a bug, because they view sabermetrics only as potentially better versions of traditional stats.

But sabermetrics isn’t ever a finished product. (This is not, in fact, a bad thing.) So instead of expecting our stats to calcify, we should be expecting them to grow and change as we develop the ideas beneath them. So it is with WARP, which has undergone any number of changes over the years. And now we’re going to be changing WARP again. But we’re going to be throwing open the doors and letting you watch us while we work. So we’re kicking off a series of articles, running each Wednesday, where we’ll take you inside what we’re doing. There’ll be a lot of math, but also a lot of discussion about what WARP is trying to measure and the philosophy behind various choices.

Read the full article...

Why knowing what went before will help the sabermetric movement in the future.

This was my third year attending the annual convention of the Society for American Baseball Research—in this case, the 43rd such event. It is one of the social highlights of the year for a community that essentially suffered a diaspora at birth—it’s never been easier for baseball researchers to communicate, but every so often it’s vital to actually bring them together under one roof, and SABR is a vital way of doing that.

There are panel discussions, keynotes, presentations, posters, and committee meetings. There are also discussions in hallways and on escalators and in line at cheesesteak vendors and in bars… well, okay, mostly in bars. And those ad hoc interactions are at least as important as the formal events, if not more so. I’ve tried to recap the formal events, at least the ones I found of suitable interest. But it doesn’t really do enough to capture the sense of what the thing is. So let’s talk a bit. I don’t mean so much talk about SABR, although I’ll do that plenty. I mean let’s talk like we’re at the bar, with room to meander and ruminate and think about larger things. Now, obviously, I’m going to be doing most of the talking here to start, but a few of my victims from the hotel bar on Saturday night can tell you that’s pretty typical of being at SABR too.

Read the full article...

The real danger Biogenesis revealed and the false threat that we shouldn't make this about.

The announcement was mostly anticlimax. Twelve players accepted 50-game suspensions for their involvement with the Biogenesis clinic, and Alex Rodriguez is looking at a longer suspension pending appeal. Some of the names are a surprise, but not the name that everyone is talking about.

The Biogenesis story has, admittedly at the urging of MLB, become primarily about Alex Rodriguez and his massive contract, and Ryan Braun and his improperly handled sample. It is understandable, in that they’re both big stars and the storylines around them are indeed compelling. But there’s a larger story here that’s mostly being missed.

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