CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Vote in the Internet Baseball Awards for a chance at a free copy of Dollar Sign on the Muscle
Voting ends in 17 days and 7 hours

Clay Davenport 

Search Articles by Clay Davenport

All Blogs (including podcasts)

Active Columns

Authors

Article Types

Archives

02-28

comment icon

2

The BP Wayback Machine: How Good is Aroldis Chapman?
by
Clay Davenport

05-27

comment icon

49

Grumblings from a Surly Sabermetrician: Scott Cousins is a Dirty, Dirty Ballplayer...
by
Clay Davenport

05-19

comment icon

4

The BP Wayback Machine: Baseball in 1864
by
Clay Davenport

01-03

comment icon

2

Between The Numbers: Ground-ball Rates in the Minors and Majors
by
Clay Davenport

10-05

comment icon

14

BP Unfiltered: BP: LABR Champions
by
Clay Davenport

06-08

comment icon

6

BP Unfiltered: Strasburg's Minor League Performance
by
Clay Davenport

05-18

comment icon

1

Fantasy Beat: Fantasy Today
by
Clay Davenport

04-20

comment icon

3

Between The Numbers: Short Season to Majors in Two Years
by
Clay Davenport

04-01

comment icon

31

Fantasy Beat: PFM Update 4-1
by
Clay Davenport

03-21

comment icon

13

Fantasy Focus: Depth Chart/PFM Update, Part 2
by
Clay Davenport

03-20

comment icon

13

BP Unfiltered: 3/19 Pecota Update: Weighted Means In for Pitchers
by
Clay Davenport

03-17

comment icon

16

Fantasy Beat: Depth Chart/PFM Update
by
Clay Davenport

10-26

comment icon

3

World Series Prospectus: The Weather
by
Clay Davenport

10-06

comment icon

6

Playoff Prospectus: Post-Season Ballparks
by
Clay Davenport

08-13

comment icon

3

Defection Alert
by
Clay Davenport

08-03

comment icon

7

Movin' On Up
by
Clay Davenport

03-04

comment icon

6

Champions of the World
by
Clay Davenport

02-26

comment icon

10

Translation Mambo
by
Clay Davenport

02-19

comment icon

33

PECOTA Projected Standings
by
Clay Davenport

01-20

comment icon

11

Over There, Over There
by
Clay Davenport

08-28

comment icon

0

You Could Look It Up: A Guide to the New Veterans Committee Ballot, Part 2
by
Steven Goldman and Clay Davenport

08-26

comment icon

0

You Could Look It Up: A Guide to the New Veterans Committee Ballot, Part 1
by
Steven Goldman and Clay Davenport

02-21

comment icon

0

Winter League Top Performers
by
Clay Davenport

02-13

comment icon

0

Winter League Top Performers
by
Clay Davenport

10-25

comment icon

0

Projecting the World Series
by
Clay Davenport

10-02

comment icon

0

In Good Company
by
Clay Davenport

07-15

comment icon

2

The Answer
by
Will Carroll and Clay Davenport

05-11

comment icon

0

Counting Down to 756
by
Clay Davenport

03-26

comment icon

0

Going Into LABR
by
Clay Davenport

03-14

comment icon

0

Hope and Faith: How the Baltimore Orioles Can Win the World Series
by
Clay Davenport

12-14

comment icon

0

Team and Organizational Ages
by
Clay Davenport

12-08

comment icon

0

What the Numbers Say
by
Clay Davenport

10-26

comment icon

0

Going Back in Time
by
Clay Davenport

09-30

comment icon

0

Kissing Your Sister
by
Clay Davenport

08-02

comment icon

0

Going Streaking
by
Clay Davenport

05-03

comment icon

0

Playoff Odds Report
by
Clay Davenport

03-31

comment icon

0

Probability and Possibility
by
Clay Davenport

03-23

comment icon

0

About Outs
by
Clay Davenport

03-01

comment icon

0

The World Baseball Classic
by
Clay Davenport

02-28

comment icon

0

The World Baseball Classic
by
Clay Davenport

11-02

comment icon

0

Watch the Leather
by
Clay Davenport

10-03

comment icon

0

How Far They Fell
by
Clay Davenport

09-12

comment icon

0

Playoff Odds Report, 1964
by
Clay Davenport

08-23

comment icon

0

An Objective Hall of Fame
by
Clay Davenport

08-18

comment icon

0

An Objective Hall of Fame
by
Clay Davenport

08-15

comment icon

0

An Objective Hall of Fame
by
Clay Davenport

08-10

comment icon

0

An Objective Hall of Fame
by
Clay Davenport

08-08

comment icon

0

An Objective Hall of Fame
by
Clay Davenport

05-19

comment icon

0

Postseason Odds
by
Clay Davenport

04-18

comment icon

0

Minor League Batting Averages on Balls in Play
by
Clay Davenport

<< Previous Author Entries Next Author Entries >>

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

October 25, 2007 12:00 am

Projecting the World Series

0

Clay Davenport

Calculating the likely winner of the World Series changes pretty radically once you start evaluating the specific batter/pitcher matchups.

Since I've gotten a lot of e-mail about the postseason odds and their nod to the Rockies as a favorite-more questions than I can readily answer, certainly-I thought I'd take a look not only at that, but a number of other projections as well.

Of the various formulations we have, many of which Nate touched on here, the one I think is most likely to be useful is the Elo post-season odds report. At the close of the season, Boston had a commanding 1564-1539 advantage over the Rockies. The postseason has not substantially changed that gap-Boston's Elo has increased to 1579, up 15 points, while Colorado is up 17 to 1556. Colorado's superior post-season record, 7-0 to Boston's 7-3, is offset by Boston's beating better teams. Playing out the World Series through Elo standards would make Boston a 58-42 (percentage) favorite.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

October 2, 2007 12:00 am

In Good Company

0

Clay Davenport

Faster than you can say "90 percent chance of reaching the playoffs," some teams have famously imploded in the stretch drive. But which teams did it the fastest?

Yesterday, I ran some numbers for Carl Bialik, the Numbers Guy at wallstreetjournal.com. The gist of what I was working on was that there were 32 teams, going back to 1873 and the National Association, where a team had reached a 90 percent probability of reaching the postseason, and then failed to do so. What I was looking at for Carl was, specifically, how fast they were able to blow it, and go from 90 to nothing. The record evolved like this:

In 1873, the Philadelphia club was 34-10 in a 60-game season. They went 2-7 the rest of the way, while a Boston club (essentially today's Braves franchise) that started three games behind them went 12-3 to bury them. That Philadelphia team took 20 days to go from 90 percent to elimination.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

July 15, 2007 12:00 am

The Answer

2

Will Carroll and Clay Davenport

Sorting out the all-time achievements of the game's greatest sluggers can give us an answer we can all agree upon.

You're going to have to pick your poison here, old-timers. You can either hate Barry Bonds, or you can hate statheads, but when it comes to solving the "problem" of the all-time home run title, you can't have it both ways. Those that want to place an asterisk on Bonds' achievements have always focused on the question of whether or not he's been cheating, something that remains unproven in the legal if not literal sense. In that argument, you can never win, not until Bonds pumps out a positive steroid test, something that seems pretty unlikely at this late stage of his career. Instead, if you really want to make your point sans the Frickian asterisk, you're going to have to rely on that other thing that baseball purists hate: math.

Over and over, people always bring up that we can't compare Babe Ruth or Hank Aaron to Barry Bonds. To that, we say "nuts." Because we most certainly can. There's some question as to how physical skills might translate, but it's easy enough to translate statistics to adjust for park, league, and era. In fact, it's one of the bedrocks of Baseball Prospectus. Since before its founding, Clay has been making translations available. Translations of player performance aren't that complex on the surface and are easily read, just like a normal stat line. It's behind the scenes where it gets complex, and why Davenport Translations have never been seriously contested. Unlike attempts at the "One True Stat" like VORP, or Runs Created, or WARP, or Win Shares, all with their various degrees success or failure, translations seldom raise any significant argument among serious statheads, and no one has developed a competing system.

Read the full article...

Clay dives into the probabilities of when and where Barry Bonds will set the record.

Love him, hate him, or just don't care about him, Barry Bonds is on the cusp of eclipsing baseball's most cherished record, the title for most career home runs. Want to know when he'll do it?

Using essentially the same system as the playoff odds report, we can model Bonds' home run hitting on a game-by-game basis in order to get an estimate for just when #756 will carry over an outfield fence. All of this will assume that the chances remain relatively stable--if he deliberately avoids hitting home runs on the road (by, say, bunting against the shift), or if pitchers start walking him even more often to make sure they're not the next Al Downing, then all bets are off.

Read the full article...

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

March 26, 2007 12:00 am

Going Into LABR

0

Clay Davenport

Clay has a spring delivery that's sure to get you to thinking about your own fantasy exploits.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

Second-class citizens in the AL East seemingly forever, the Orioles have the assets to contend under the right circumstances.

Will talks with Clay about the Orioles' chances on Baseball Prospectus Radio. Click to download the mp3.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

December 14, 2006 12:00 am

Team and Organizational Ages

0

Clay Davenport

While working on the 2007 annual, Clay discovers some interesting information about player ages across teams.

Average team age is established by looking at the weighted average of the ages of all players on the team as of July 1, 2006. Ages are calculated in days, with weights assigned by plate appearances (hitters) and innings pitched (pitchers). Batters' and pitchers' scores are then averaged together to get team total age.

The average age of each level was determined to be as follows:

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

December 8, 2006 12:00 am

What the Numbers Say

0

Clay Davenport

Clay runs the numbers on all the players picked in yesterday's Rule 5 Draft, distinguishing the legitimate major-leaguers from the wannabes.

These are purely statistical impressions from the Rule 5 draft, as we sort out who's where and why. The players' statistics are translated with an eye towards future performance--not nearly as in-depth as PECOTA, but the system in play generally does well, and will help give us a sense as far as what's possible for these guys.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

October 26, 2006 12:00 am

Going Back in Time

0

Clay Davenport

Vintage Base Ball games have become a popular pastime. While attending one in Baltimore, Clay Davenport becomes part of the action.

I finally got around to looking through my library for a book that had rules of the 1860s in it, but I couldn't find the ones I had in mind, and so I just decided that I'd go and see what the rules were by watching. I was pretty certain that balls on one bounce were still being called outs, and that they weren't allowed to retire runners by throwing the ball right at them ("soaking"). There certainly wouldn't be any gloves, but beyond that I really didn't know what to expect. Saturday came and the weather was great for the middle of October, clear and sunny, if a touch cool. Traffic turned into a mini-nightmare thanks to some road construction I didn't know about, so by the time we had gone off the highway and worked our way through local streets to the park, the two teams had already started the first game.

It turned out I was right about the one-bounce and no-soaking rules, but there were plenty of others that caught me by surprise--some that I remembered after seeing them in action, and a few that I had never heard of. Some of the chatter was amusing, such as the oh-so-polite calls of "Well struck, sir!" that followed a nice hit. The first game sailed right along; the Elkton club was pretty clearly the better team and won handily, although I wasn't keeping track of the score. I was chatting throughout the game with another SABR member whose curiosity had been aroused by the same e-mail I had gotten. The first game over, we both went over to the exhibit of old bats that had been set up while the players took a short break.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

September 30, 2006 12:00 am

Kissing Your Sister

0

Clay Davenport

Clay factors in the MLB tiebreaker rules to make the Postseason Odds Report more accurate.

Since the code doesn't handle it, I will. These numbers are through Friday's games, and are based on the regular Postseason Odds Report only.

In the American League Central, the model left the Tigers and Twins tied in 377,115 of the million runs. Since this is a tie for both the division title and for the wild card, league rules say that there will be no playoff game, but that whichever team won the most games in head-to-head play will be called the division champion. The Tigers won the season series, 11 games to eight, so they should be called the champions in all of those tied series, not half of them. Net result: the Tigers chances of winning the division increase from 59.90315 to 78.7589, and the Twins chances fall from 40.09685 to 21.2411.

Read the full article...

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

August 2, 2006 12:00 am

Going Streaking

0

Clay Davenport

Clay takes a closer look at Chase Utley's odds of reaching or breaking DiMaggio's hitting streak.

Short answer for the really impatient: 1 in 194.

How I got there:

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

Clay describes the newest addition to BP's Playoff Odds report.

As a result, last year's postseason odds had some strange results--like jumping on the Orioles' hot start to give them a 75% chance of making the playoffs, odds which many readers disputed at the time. I've tried to temper that by providing a second report this year, which you can reach from the regular report. This second one works exactly like the main report, except it uses the projected standings that Nate Silver generated using PECOTA as its baseline for the regression to mean, not .500. Last year, the Orioles were projected to be a .484 team by PECOTA, with the Yankees (.588) and Red Sox (.610) substantially better.

Forty games into last season, on May 20, the regular report looked like this:

Read the full article...

<< Previous Author Entries Next Author Entries >>