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Ben Murphy 

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07-24

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TTO Scoresheet Podcast: All About Failure
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

07-17

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TTO Scoresheet Podcast: All-Star Week
by
Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

07-10

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5

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Crossover Season Begins
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

07-03

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TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Maximizing Value in Midseason Trades
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

06-27

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TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Chatting With Brian Dewberry-Jones
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

06-19

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TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Handling Lopsided Trades
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

06-12

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TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Preference Lists
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

06-05

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TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Novelty Food
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

05-29

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TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Scoresheet Player Trend Watch: May Supplemental Draft
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

05-22

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TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Running a Scoresheet Auction League
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

05-15

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TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Sell-High Candidates
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

05-09

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TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Finding Trade Targets
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

05-02

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TTO Scoresheet Podcast: An Interview with John R. Mayne
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

04-25

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TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Taking Stock of Your Team
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

04-18

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TTO Scoresheet Podcast: A Mock Supplemental Draft
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

04-11

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TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Three Heads Are (Usually) Better Than One
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

04-04

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TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Episode 12: Brandon "Sweet Talkin'" Guyer
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

03-28

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22

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Episode 11: Filling Out Your Lineup Card
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

03-21

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TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Episode 10: Late-Round Drafting
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

03-14

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TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Episode 9: SS/SIM
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

03-07

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TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Relief Pitchers
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

02-28

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TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Starting Pitchers
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

02-21

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TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Outfielders
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

02-14

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3

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Third Basemen
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

02-10

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11

TTO Scoresheet Rankings
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

02-07

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TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Shortstops
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

01-31

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TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Second Basemen
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

01-24

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13

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: First Basemen
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

01-17

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12

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Catchers
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

03-26

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33

Fantasy Beat: Improved SS/SIM for 2011
by
Ben Murphy

04-21

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BP Kings Preview
by
Ben Murphy

04-11

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BP Kings Update
by
Ben Murphy

11-09

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Predictatron Recap
by
Ben Murphy

11-02

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The AL-Kings
by
Jared Weiss and Ben Murphy

11-01

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Hacking Mass
by
Ben Murphy

07-26

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AL-Kings July Update
by
Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

03-09

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Player Forecast Manager
by
Ben Murphy

02-23

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The Player Forecast Manager
by
Ben Murphy

11-29

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Predictatron Pontification
by
Ben Murphy

11-14

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2005 HACKING MASS Results
by
Ben Murphy

11-07

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Call it a Comeback
by
Ben Murphy

10-25

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Call it a Comeback
by
Ben Murphy

08-03

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What's New at Baseball Prospectus
by
Ben Murphy

07-11

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Predictatron Pontification
by
Ben Murphy

06-01

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Prospectus Hit List: Week of May 29, 2005
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Ben Murphy

05-24

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Prospectus Hit List: Week of May 22, 2005
by
Ben Murphy

05-18

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Prospectus Hit List: Week of May 15, 2005
by
Ben Murphy

02-24

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Prospectus Triple Play: Anaheim Angels, Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers
by
Ben Murphy

11-19

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Marginal Dollars per Marginal Win
by
Ben Murphy

06-29

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You Get What You Pay For
by
Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

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This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

February 10, 2014 6:00 am

TTO Scoresheet Rankings

11

Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

The Scoresheet team reveals the rest of its positional rankings to help you decide on your keepers.

Note: This piece was originally published on February 9th.

While those of you in standard fantasy leagues are blissfully waiting for pitchers and catchers to report, for many of us on the Scoresheet side, yesterday was the culmination of an offseason of decision-making. Sunday was the standard keeper deadline, and to prepare, BP's Scoresheet team put together a complete ranking list for you to make your decisions, or to get a second opinion for keepers or trade possibilities. Consider this a beta release, as we will continue to prepare our official rankings to coincide with Scoresheet's fantasy position weeks. Until then, do you have a question? We'll take last minute questions right here in the comments section, in email at scoresheet@baseballprospectus.com, or @TTOScoresheet on Twitter. We're here to help, so let us know what your deadline is! For those of you with later keeper deadlines, we'll continue to discuss rankings both here and on the podcast all month long.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

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February 7, 2014 6:00 am

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Shortstops

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Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

A look at how this position breaks down for Scoresheet leagues, including rankings and which players would benefit contenders and rebuilders.

This week, we’re taking a look at shortstops. If you tune into our podcast, you’ll hear our thoughts on individual players and strategy, only some of which we cover below. We also answered a number of reader questions on keepers, and we discussed what keeper rules we’d change if we held the keys to the Scoresheet kingdom. If you need help with any last minute keeper decisions, feel free to drop us a line and we’ll do our best to get back to you before the deadline.

Here’s how we rank shortstops in Scoresheet:

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This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

January 31, 2014 6:00 am

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Second Basemen

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Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

A look at how this position breaks down for Scoresheet leagues, including rankings and which players would benefit contenders and rebuilders.

As Baseball Prospectus wraps up a week dedicated to second basemen, we’re here to take a look at the Scoresheet merits of players minding the keystone. Be sure to check out our podcast for lots more on the position. In addition, this week we answered a number of reader questions concerning keeper strategy, so you’ll want to tune in to hear our thoughts as you make your keeper decisions. On that note, with the keeper deadline for most leagues just days away, send us your keeper quandaries via email, Twitter (@TTOScoresheet), or commenting on this article, and we’ll be happy to respond before the deadline.

Here how we rank the second basemen in Scoresheet:

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This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

January 24, 2014 8:00 am

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: First Basemen

13

Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

In the second edition of the Three True Outcomes podcast, our fantasy crew looks at first basemen for Scoresheet leagues.

Welcome back to the second installment of BP’s weekly Scoresheet fantasy baseball podcast and column. If you missed the first one, which focused on catchers, you can check it out here. This week we are following our BP brethren by taking a look at first basemen, and don’t forget to listen to our podcast, links to which can be found at the bottom of the page.

In a typical AL10 or NL12 league, the TTO crew recommends that you try to focus your offensive value around up the middle positions--C, 2B, SS, CF. So our typical teams represent a tradeoff where we redraft our 1B and DH instead of finding a keeper level player. This is at least in part because Scoresheet allows anybody to play at 1B, and players with average or better defensive rankings at other infield positions will have average defense at 1B. Our rankings are meant to be agnostic of our strategic mindset but incorporate the Scoresheet tactical rules. We would therefore advise that when you’re sitting down on draft day, you might consider the tiers of first basemen and pick out the guys you want for your team and can draft without making too many sacrifices for positional scarcity.

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In the debut edition of the Three True Outcomes podcast, our fantasy crew looks at catchers for Scoresheet leagues.

Welcome to BP’s take on Scoresheet fantasy baseball. Scoresheet, for those unfamiliar, is a type of fantasy baseball in which your drafted team plays simulated games each week against other teams in your league, with your players’ performance depending on how they played in real life that week—but not entirely, unlike in a roto or head-to-head league. Other differences from most roto leagues include the importance of real-life fielding ability and a tendency for rosters to be rather deep. While many Scoresheet leagues have their own unique quirky rules, most allow players to be kept for an indefinite number of years, and allow rookies to be kept very cheaply. For non-Scoresheet players in deep or dynasty leagues, we urge you to check out BP’s new TINO podcast, but after you listen to that, we think we will be able to provide some supplementary value as well. Or, better yet, sign up for a Scoresheet team to explore a whole new world of fantasy baseball.

We want to thank BP for this chance to contribute to their suite of fantasy baseball offerings. Our goal is for the weekly column and podcast to complement each other. Both will cover similar ground and maybe even the same jokes. But we believe reading the article will make the podcast more meaningful. And vice versa. In upcoming weeks we look forward to joining in the BP Fantasy fun by taking a position-by-position look at the upcoming season, starting with catcher this week. We’ve got lots more planned after that, but if there’s anything you’d like us to tackle, please feel free to contact us @TTOScoresheet on Twitter or at scoresheet@threetrueoutcomes.com

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We walk through the methodology used to improve and enhance the Scoresheet value statistic SS/SIM for 2011.

We recently went to great lengths to develop the new version of SS/SIM, the Scoresheet simulation value metric here at Baseball Prospectus. As fellow Scoresheet owners, we realize that optimally these valuations would have been complete several weeks ago. Unfortunately, the original formulation of SS/SIM was not available to us this year, and our replacement took more time to develop than we had anticipated. We set out to create an all-new run-based value metric for Scoresheet team owners to use in player valuation. This time consuming effort was spearheaded by BP staffers with Scoresheet experience, and included research into the Scoresheet engine, talking with Jeff and Dave Barton, and consulting with Scoresheet experts for feedback.

Development of SS/SIM for both hitters and pitchers starts with the Scoresheet definition of replacement level, namely the awful Triple-A players that are used when you run out of playing time in the Scoresheet simulation. From there we have captured the most important aspects of the Scoresheet simulation and built them into the SS/SIM methodology to produce a single metric for Scoresheet owners. These adjustments seek to raise the effective replacement level and account for the differences between MLB and Scoresheet. [edit: BJM 2011-03-28]

Read the full article...

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April 21, 2008 12:00 am

BP Kings Preview

0

Ben Murphy

BP's Fantasy Scoresheet League is back for another year. Today, the participants outline their strategies and draft results.

Despite that snafu, I'm pretty happy with the end result of my team. I have a better pitching staff than last year, and a number of good prospects getting closer to being able to help me. And since I'm not in Nate's division, I'll have an opportunity to contend.


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April 11, 2007 12:00 am

BP Kings Update

0

Ben Murphy

Everything you wanted to know about the BP Kings Charity Scoresheet Draft.

Peter Gammons' unfortunate incident focused the spotlight on cerebral aneurysms, but my connection is more personal. My mother had a cerebral aneurysm rupture way back in 1977 and was fortunate to survive. Draft Strategy: Be strong at scarce positions offensively, avoided the dreaded Pitcher-AAA as always, and work on building a better bullpen to compensate for the lack of early starting pitchers. I sort of strayed from that strategy by taking John Lackey relatively early, and I might have a problem at second base if Jose Lopez doesn't pan out. I wanted to build a good core under the age of 30, and I did a fairly decent job of that. One of my harder decisions was my first one--Grady Sizemore vs. Joe Mauer. The consensus seems to be that I went the wrong with Sizemore--the consensus could be right, but I get the idea that three years from now Mauer won't be catching as often, to preserve his knees. Maybe that's too far forward to look, but at the same token, I see Sizemore as basically being risk-free.

I participated in the Mock Draft in the Scoresheet newsgroup, and because of that I expected the draft to be a little more prospect-heavy early-on. With the notable exception of Nate Silver, it wasn't, which suits me fine. I'm happy to have Brignac and Adam Miller among my top prospects.


King Kaufman & Rob Granickback to top Charity: Physicians for Reproductive Choice and Health
Draft Strategy: Our only real strategy was to get big bats with the first few picks, then turn to pitching. Other than that, we basically reacted to the draft. We had the third pick, and in a league with an obvious top three, that made things easy. The one who's left is your guy, and that was Joe Mauer, whom we were happy to have. When Vernon Wells fell, we felt, to us at No. 22, we had our theme for the early part of the draft: Young, studly up-the-middle guys.


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November 9, 2006 12:00 am

Predictatron Recap

0

Ben Murphy

BP's newest contest is taken down by a Twins fan.

Just as I did last year, I'm here to follow up the HACKING MASS Wrap with a look at this year's Predictatron results. This is the second year we've done the Predictatron contest, and it continues to be popular, for obvious reasons--trying to predict the order of finish and teams' eventual records is one of the oldest hobbies of baseball fans.

For those that haven't had the pleasure to compete, Predictatron is the annual contest at Baseball Prospectus where entrants can win $500 by predicting the total wins for each of the 30 major league teams, and the results of the playoffs. Basic scoring is set up so that everyone starts with 1000 points, and you lose points for every win you are off for each team; you can win points back with the playoffs. There are also a few wrinkles, like the Mortal Lock, so I'd encourage everyone to read the full rules.

Read the full article...

November 2, 2006 12:00 am

The AL-Kings

0

Jared Weiss and Ben Murphy

Scoresheet can be a tough mistress, as BP's Celebrity Scoresheet League crowns a champion.

Kaline Standings, Pitching W L pct. GB 4 Las Vegas Red Sox 86 76 .531 - 10 Page 42s 85 77 .525 1 1 STL Golden Bears 83 79 .512 3 7 Inwood 73 89 .451 13 Fox Standings, Pitching W L pct. GB 11 Street Walkers 80 82 .494 - 2 Tutankhamun 78 84 .481 2 8 Wolfcastle Rainiers 77 85 .475 3 5 KG 73 89 .451 7 Ruth Standings, Pitching W L pct. GB 3 Montclair Red Sox 92 70 .568 - 9 Jonah Keri 85 77 .525 7 6 Royale with Ortiz 82 80 .506 10 12 RotoWire 78 84 .481 14
If you just checked out the July update, these standings may look vaguely familiar. In fact, no one in either the Kaline or Fox divisions managed to move up or down since that July article. It is worth noting, though, that second- and third-place teams made up a lot of ground, and both the Las Vegas Red Sox (Dave Cokin) and the Street Walkers (Sam Walker) barely staved off their competition.

The Kaline division saw a heated battle down the stretch. Indeed, in the words of Dave Mlodinoff, half of the Page 42s: "We got killed during the last week--swept by Joe and Rany, two last-place teams. I think it was our only 0-6 week of the year--great timing, no? Even one win that week (or at any point) would have given us the division title over Cokin, due to tiebreakers."

The Street Walkers managed to "win" the Fox Division, despite their losing record and only the 7th-best record in the league. The team was fortunate to be in the same division as the team with the highest ERA (Tutankhamun), the team that scored the second-fewest runs (the Wolfcastle Rainiers), and the team tied for the worst record in the league (KG).

Jonah Keri's team made the biggest improvement since the July update, adeptly trading players to go from four games under .500 to eight games over, enough to garner a share of the wild card. He wasn't able to catch Peter King's team in the Ruth Division, however, as the Montclair Red Sox maintained their seven-game lead that they had in July en route to finishing with the best record in the league by a sizable margin.

The first round of the playoffs saw Jonah Keri play the Page 42s (co-owned by Rob Neyer and Dave Mlodinoff), as both teams had a share of the wild card with identical 85-77 records. The series went the full seven games, with Jonah Keri ultimately prevailing. Here's what Mlodinoff had to say about Game Seven: "That one really hurt, as we had Wang starting against Jamie Moyer; Moyer somehow outpitched Wang, and we crashed and burned big time."

That gave us final quartet of Jonah Keri, Dave Cokin's Las Vegas Red Sox, Peter King's Montclair Red Sox, and Sam Walker/Nando DiFino's Street Walkers. Since the Montclair Red Sox had the best regular season record, they were matched up with the Street Walkers, owners of the worst record among teams to make the playoffs. The series was much closer than teams' records might have suggested it would be, as it took the Montclair Red Sox the full seven games (including winning Games Six and Seven) to down the Street Walkers. Adding to the excitement, Games One and Two both went eleven innings, with King winning the first, and the Street Walkers taking the second.

To continue a now-familiar motif, the other semi-final series also went seven games, as the Las Vegas Red Sox edged out Jonah Keri. This series may have been the closest, as Dave Cokin's first three wins were all achieved in extra innings. Additionally, over the course of the series, the Las Vegas Red Sox had only five more hits, and one fewer run scored than Jonah Keri.

The two teams that remained after all this mayhem were the Las Vegas Red Sox and the Montclair Red Sox. Assured of a championship, Boston fans were no doubt confused, and spent most of the series trying to figure out how they could still somehow root against the Yankees. Noting Peter King's regular season dominance, oddsmakers had the Montclair Red Sox winning the series in seven.

Montclair took Game One, scoring three runs in the bottom of the 8th to win 5-4. Las Vegas parried by winning Game Two, riding a strong seven-inning, two-run start by Cliff Lee. As the series moved to Las Vegas, Montclair again won in exciting fashion, pulling out an 8-6 victory in ten frames after Las Vegas had rallied to knot up the game at six apiece in the bottom of the 9th on an Adrian Beltre solo homer. Las Vegas handily took Game Four, trouncing Adam Eaton for six runs, keeping the series tied up at two games apiece. The fans again got their money's worth in Game Five, with the lead seesawing back and forth, but Dave Cokin's team ultimately pulled it out in the bottom of the 9th when Carl Crawford hit a single off of Scot Shields to plate Jason Kendall.

As the teams re-crossed the country to go back to Montclair, Red Sox fans were heard complaining about the unfair system that only allowed one Red Sox team to win the trophy. Meanwhile, Peter King, sipping a cup of coffee, gave his team an impassioned motivational speech, and in the visitor's locker room, Dave Cokin tried to use the underdog card one more time in an effort to coax a final victory from his squad.

Game Six was a rematch of the same starting pitchers as in Game Two, but this time Cliff Lee failed to match his prior performance, giving up four runs in six innings, while Joe Blanton only gave up two runs in five. The bullpens took over, and the game was soon tied, as Las Vegas' Huston Street and Kiko Calero combined for three innings and one run, while Montclair's Tim Wakefield gave up three runs in three and two-thirds innings. With the score 5-5 after nine innings, Las Vegas was held scoreless in the 10th by Mark Hendrickson. Montclair also went three up and three down in the bottom of the 10th, at the hands of Ron Villone. With two outs in the top of the 11th inning, Julio Lugo stepped in against Hendrickson. Perhaps the lanky lefty let his mind wander to the bottom of the inning, hoping his team could score a run and send the series to Game Seven, as all the other postseason series had. Perhaps he just did not think Lugo could catch up with his heater. In any case, Lugo crushed a pitch, putting Las Vegas up by a run.

Looking to close out the series, Dave Cokin turned the ball over to J.J. Putz to save the game for Las Vegas, even though Putz had pitched two innings in Game Five, and an inning and two-thirds in Game Four. Leading off for Montclair was Angel Berroa at the bottom of the order, and then Ichiro and Melvin Mora. Noted posteason hero Scott Podsednik was sent in to bat for Berroa, but Putz struck him out. Ichiro stepped to the plate and quickly banged out a single, giving hope to Montclair fans everywhere. Putz then struck out Melvin Mora, leaving the game in the hands of Grady Sizemore. Sizemore proved unequal to the task, as his popped out to give the championship to Dave Cokin's Las Vegas Red Sox.

The winning manager was appropriately humble in victory. Reflecting on his team's performance, Cokin said, "I thought from the outset that I had an okay team that might make a run at a playoff spot, but in no way did I feel I had the strongest squad. The thing I liked best about my team is that it was pretty well balanced with no glaring holes. I benefited from the general parity in our league, and got good pitching at the finish line to get lucky. I'm still more a Roto fan than the Scoresheet style of play, but this was fun and hope we can do this again next season."

As does Dave's charity, The Lied Animal Shelter. The shelter will be receiving a $1,000 donation, courtesy of Baseball Prospectus. Speaking of BP, by the way, it should be noted that their best and brightest pretty much fell flat in the league, with the postseason being dominated by the non-BP experts invited into the league.

Congratulations to Dave Cokin for winning the inaugural BP Kings league. Hopefully you had as much fun keeping tabs on the league as the experts did playing in it. Look for a brand new version of the league next year, and don't be surprised if the BP writers work hard in the offseason to avenge their disappointing showing this year.



We asked the participants of the BP Kings League to share some of their thoughts on the season. Many of them were kind enough to respond with lengthy e-mails detailing nearly their every move. Below are some of the comments of King Kaufman (STL Golden Bears) and Nando DiFino (Street Walkers) on what this season of Scoresheet has meant to them.

King Kaufman:

I learned a lot about baseball--and also maybe a little something about baseball coverage--playing this game. And I learned a lot of it in the very first week. I could see the coverage: This team is all heart! They never give up! They just keep fighting! Etc.!

But there's no heart in this game. It's just a series of baseball events. And I could feel myself anthropomorphizing them (is that the word?), giving them moral shadings, ascribing to them attributes like "grit" and "heart" and "indominability."

I don't know that Scoresheet is necessarily a direct translation to real-life baseball. Maybe those elements do exist. Maybe teams are gritty and clutchy and never-say-die-ish, and they succeed in late-inning situations and win close games because of those attributes. Maybe Scoresheet's series of events look like real baseball because the play-by-play comes out looking similar, but it's missing the flesh-and-blood elements that cause those events in real life.

On the other hand, maybe baseball really is just a series of events, and we ascribe emotional and moral qualities to the plays and the players just as falsely in real life as I was tempted to do in Scoresheet.

I also learned a lot about the role of luck in baseball. I'd always thought of luck as funny bounces, bad hops, bad calls, untimely injuries, that sort of thing. But what is it other than luck, from your point of view, that determines the quality of your opponent?

If we'd been a real-life team, the press would have roasted us for that 1-9 stretch in early September. We choked. All that would have been visible would have been the nine losses. We could have lamely said, "They just played great," and it would have sounded like a bad excuse. But that's what it was, in Scoresheet anyway.

That's the lesson I'd learned when I wrote, after the Tigers beat the Yankees in the playoffs, that from the Yankees point of view, they'd gotten unlucky because they'd run into a Tigers team that, all of a sudden, after sucking the previous week, was playing dynamite baseball. A lot of readers took that to mean the Tigers won by getting lucky, but that's not what I meant. I meant what I said: The Yankees got unlucky. If they'd caught the same Tigers who got swept by the Royals, they'd have won the series easily playing exactly the same way.

Nando DiFino:

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November 1, 2006 12:00 am

Hacking Mass

0

Ben Murphy

Who was the best at predicting the worst?

HACKING MASS All-Star Team

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July 26, 2006 12:00 am

AL-Kings July Update

0

Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

More news from the BP celebrity Scoresheet league.

Kaline Division

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