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Ben Murphy |
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02-24 | Prospectus Triple Play: Anaheim Angels, Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers |
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October 25, 2005 12:00 am
Call it a Comeback |
Jason Giambi and Ken Griffey Jr. won the Comeback Player of the Year Award in their leagues as voted by the fans. Is there a more objective way of handing out the award?
This bounceback comes in three steps: the first peak, the valley and the second peak. In order for a player to qualify for our 2005 Objective Rebound Award (or ORA, because we love acronyms and we're hoping that the winner has that special something about him), the second peak should come in 2005. For the initial run, we're only going to consider players whose first peak came in 2003 and valley came in 2004. Later, we'll open it up to look at larger windows, up to five years from peak to peak. Although the subjective Comeback Awards are given out by league, we'll make no such distinction here, to avoid having to split playing time across leagues.
Overall, the level of the rebound is measured by the distance dropped plus the distance gained back, or (Peak 1 VORP - Valley VORP) + (Peak 2 VORP - Valley VORP). Although this method would leave us open to having some rebounds that appeared large because of one large peak on either end, there are so many seasons in question that the highest rebounds end up having large peaks on each end. Once we start to limit the sample sizes down to three consecutive years ending in 2005, you get some interesting "rebounds." Although we could place limits on these, it would take arbitrary cut-offs, and since it's an inexact science and simply a toy at this point, we can eliminate these by sight as they come up.
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August 3, 2005 12:00 am
What's New at Baseball Prospectus |
The Tech staff has been busy at Baseball Prospectus over the last few months. Here's what they've been putting together.
We're also working on updates and improvements as the new statistical reports continue to evolve. If you have suggestions for the next iteration, please feel free to contact me.
July 11, 2005 12:00 am
Predictatron Pontification |
With the season at the halfway point, Ben Murphy has a look at how people made their Predictatron picks.
Before delving deeper, some of you might find it helpful to read up on these statistical terms (thanks to Wikipedia):
June 1, 2005 12:00 am
Prospectus Hit List: Week of May 29, 2005 |
The Orioles hang on to the top spot in this week's Prospectus Hit List, but the rest of the AL East is on the rise.
May 24, 2005 12:00 am
Prospectus Hit List: Week of May 22, 2005 |
Who's up and who's down? Find out on this week's Hit List.
May 18, 2005 12:00 am
Prospectus Hit List: Week of May 15, 2005 |
With the Orioles and Cardinals in the top two spots, this week's edition of the Hit List is for the birds.
February 24, 2005 12:00 am
Prospectus Triple Play: Anaheim Angels, Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers |
New faces and signings pose challenges in Anaheim, Chicago, and Milwaukee. Plus, can Dusty keep his pitchers healthy?
Player Age IP EqERA EqH9 EqBB9 EqSO9 EqHR9 VORP Donnelly 33 49.1 3.25 7.5 3.0 8.1 1.0 15.8 Gregg 27 91.2 4.29 8.8 2.9 6.7 1.1 16.2 Shields 29 95.2 3.61 8.9 2.9 7.0 0.8 25.0 Yan 30 64.2 4.30 9.8 2.9 6.2 1.1 12.4 All of these guys are between 27 and 33, generally considered peak years. Both Shields and Gregg project to throw more than 90 innings, toward the high end of modern usage patterns. Shields has shown he can handle it, throwing more than 100 innings last year and nearly 150 in 2003. Gregg hasn't been around very long, but did post almost 90 innings last year. Donnelly, Gregg and Shields all show moderate power numbers (EqSO9 near 7.0 or 8.0), and all four guys show reasonable control (EqBB9 around 3.0).
November 19, 2004 12:00 am
Marginal Dollars per Marginal Win |
Continuing the work of Doug Pappas, we look at the teams that got the most--and least--bang for their buck.
A year ago, Doug presented 2003 data, then presented historical information in both Baseball Prospectus 2004 and in a series on this site. The formulas for marginal wins and marginal payroll, first presented in The Numbers, Part Four, are as follows:
Marginal wins = ((winning percentage - .300) x 162) Marginal payroll = (Opening Day payroll - (28 x $300,000)) In past years, the average marginal dollars per marginal win has reached approximately two million dollars. This year is no exception, as the average was about $1,855,682.
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June 29, 2004 12:00 am
You Get What You Pay For |
Inherent in the desire to develop better baseball statistics--and as a result, improve baseball analysis--is the belief that this information is not only available but also not being used by the men and women who run baseball. As Moneyball and the resulting reaction has showed, some General Managers seem to be using the same methods for performance evaluation that were used 20 or 40 years ago. It therefore stands to reason that GMs are paying players not for actual performance, but rather for perceived performance as viewed through the rusty and decrepit glasses of decades-old beliefs about the statistics of the game. For this study we wanted to find out if General Managers were, in fact, paying players along the lines of their objective "value" (as defined by VORP), or if there were something else in play.
Inherent in the desire to develop better baseball statistics--and as a result, improve baseball analysis--is the belief that this information is not only available but also not being used by the men and women who run baseball. As Moneyball and the resulting reaction has showed, some General Managers seem to be using the same methods for performance evaluation that were used 20 or 40 years ago.
It therefore stands to reason that GMs are paying players not for actual performance, but rather for perceived performance as viewed through the rusty glasses of decades-old beliefs about the statistics of the game. For this study we wanted to find out if General Managers were, in fact, paying players along the lines of their objective "value" (as defined by VORP), or if there was something else in play.
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June 9, 2004 12:00 am
Prospectus Q&A: B.J. Upton |
In Baseball Prospectus 2004, our authors ranked Devil Rays farmhand B.J. Upton as the No. 8 prospect in the game, while Baseball America on pegged him at No. 2 on their preseason list. Since then Upton's done nothing to make those rankings look foolish, and at the tender age of 19, has already found himself playing shortstop every day at Triple-A Durham, where he's currently hitting .315/.422/.565. Since being taken second overall in the 2002 amateur draft, Upton has been covered by John Sickels at ESPN.com and by David Cameron here at BP. Baseball Prospectus caught up with Upton before a recent home game against the Syracuse Skychiefs, where we discussed tough pitchers, being a role model, and what it takes to improve defensive performance.
Baseball Prospectus caught up with Upton before a recent home game against the Syracuse Skychiefs, where we discussed tough pitchers, being a role model, and what it takes to improve defensive performance.
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