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The First-ever Baseball Prospectus Futures Guide - now just $6.86 at Amazon ( bbp.cx/fg ) |
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Ben Lindbergh |
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May 21, 2013 10:17 am
BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 207: Reevaluating Patrick Corbin/Baseball and Redheads |
Ben and Sam discuss whether they've underrated Patrick Corbin, then talk about whether there's a bias against redheads in baseball.
May 21, 2013 9:35 am
Overthinking It: The Pitches No Zone Can Contain |
The pitches pitchers don't throw for strikes, to try to get strikes.
There’s a story about Gene Bearden in Veeck as in Wreck that I’ve written about before. As a 27-year-old rookie in 1948, the knuckleballing Bearden posted a 2.43 ERA in 37 games and 29 starts for the Indians, winning 20 games and finishing second to Alvin Dark in Rookie of the Year voting. But he couldn’t sustain his success. In Bearden’s sophomore season, Casey Stengel, who had managed Bearden during his successful 1947 PCL campaign with the Oakland Oaks, was hired to manage the Yankees. Stengel, the story goes, knew that Bearden’s knuckleball “usually dipped below the strike zone after it broke, which meant that [he] was totally dependent upon getting the batter to swing.” So he instructed his hitters not to swing at the knuckler until there were two strikes, forcing Bearden to elevate it or throw his unremarkable fastball or curve. The scouting report spread around the rest of the league, Bearden became more hittable, and his walk rate rose. Working primarily out of the bullpen, he posted a 90 ERA+ from 1949 on and was out of the majors after 1953.
It’s an interesting story, and the stats mostly support it. Bearden was probably due for some regression, Stengel’s advance scouting aside—his BABIP in 1948 was some 40 points below the AL average (low even for a knuckleballer), he walked more batters than he struck out, and he allowed only nine home runs in 229 1/3 innings. But in 1949, his walk rate rose by more than two batters per nine, and he allowed 11 runs in nine IP against the Yankees, posting a lower strikeout-to-walk ratio (0.17) against them than he did against any other team. (Admittedly, Bearden struggled against the Yankees in 1948, too. The Yankees were good.)
May 21, 2013 8:23 am
BP Unfiltered: Former MLB Umpire Jim McKean on Catcher Framing |
A former umpire and umpire supervisor weighs in on the influence catchers have over calls.
Jim McKean worked as an MLB umpire from 1973-2001, serving on three World Series crews. He became one of MLB’s umpire supervisors after retiring from active duty and has since served as an umpiring consultant for ESPN. He offered his thoughts on the influence a catcher’s receiving skills can have on an umpire’s calls.
May 20, 2013 7:00 am
BP Unfiltered: Brandon McCarthy on Catcher Framing |
What the cerebral Diamondbacks starter thinks about the importance of framing pitches.
Diamondbacks starter Brandon McCarthy is known as one of baseball’s most thoughtful, analytical pitchers; two years ago, he famously embraced advanced statistics and remade himself as a pitcher by perfecting a two-seamer that helped him get groundballs more often. As a result, he’s pretty popular on the internet. I asked him to provide the pitcher’s perspective on the importance of pitch framing and receiving skills.
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May 20, 2013 5:00 am
Prospectus Q&A: The College of Coaches on Catcher Framing |
Catching instructors and coordinators comment on the importance of receiving skills.
While working on a feature on catcher framing for Grantland, I spoke to many catching instructors and coordinators about what makes a good receiver, what receiving skills are worth, and to what extent they can be improved. Many of their most interesting insights didn't make it into that story, so I've collected them here.
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May 20, 2013 5:00 am
BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 206: When Does it Make Sense to Fire Managers?/What We Think about Hot Streaks |
Ben and Sam talk about the circumstances under which they'd feel comfortable recommending that a manager be fired, then discuss different beliefs about hot streaks.
May 18, 2013 10:06 am
Overthinking It: This Week in Catcher Framing, 5/18 |
The best and worst framers of the week and the season, plus framing-related links.
Framing-related links of the week
It’s been an eventful week for framing on the internet. If you're here because you’re interested in catcher receiving skills, you might also want to take a look at these three articles:
Estimated historical framing: More great work by Max Marchi, who used Retrosheet pitch-by-pitch data to estimate framing performance going back to 1988. He also took a look at how receiving skills age. Next on his to-do list: estimated framing for minor leaguers, and the quantification of game-calling.
May 17, 2013 11:02 am
BP Unfiltered: Jeff Keppinger Finally Works a Walk, and a Disar Awards Update |
The latest on the longest season-starting walkless streaks.
It’s appropriate that Jeff Keppinger’s first walk of 2013 was a game-winner. After 140 plate appearances without one—150 dating back to the end of last season—it would’ve been a shame if the walk we’d all been waiting for hadn’t helped the White Sox win.
May 17, 2013 7:34 am
BP Unfiltered: The Longest Plate Appearance of the Week, 5/17 |
Starling Marte makes Bobby Parnell throw 13 pitches.
Last Friday, I started a new series in which I'll be breaking down, marveling at, and ruminating on the longest plate appearance of the preceding week. This is the second installment of that series. The inaugural edition featured a 12-pitch showdown between Mike Moustakas and Chris Sale that remains exactly as interesting as it was when it was published, so if you want to watch that plate appearance, click this link. If you’ve already seen it, or you’re interested only in the latest longest plate appearance, read on.
May 17, 2013 5:00 am
BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 205: Catcher Framing Questions/A Hypothetical Pitching Problem/Post-Start MRIs |
Ben and Sam answers listener questions about catcher framing, a very unusual reliever, and cautionary MRIs.
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May 16, 2013 1:09 pm
Overthinking It: The Mystique and Aura of the Other 29 Teams |
Yankee magic is universal, as it turns out.
There’s a strange thing that happens to normally rational baseball writers when discussing the Yankees. People who would normally question every assumption and demand to see some empirical proof blindly believe that the Yankees have mastered the dark art of picking up past-their-prime players and restoring some of their former success. The only evidence is anecdotal, so we know we’re being naughty and going off the reservation, sabermetrically speaking. But like Luke Skywalker, we’ve searched our feelings, and we know it to be true. And we’re only kind of kidding.
When the Yankees traded for a struggling Ichiro Suzuki last July, The Great Grant Brisbee—after acknowledging the absurdity of what he was about to say—wrote this:
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May 16, 2013 7:00 am
BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 204: The Yankees and Luck/How We Watch Baseball/Consuming Scouting Reports |
Ben and Sam team up for a simulpodcast with Carson Cistulli of FanGraphs and FanGraphs Audio to discuss whether the Yankees have been lucky, the best way to watch baseball, and the value of old scouting reports.
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