Why it pays to look at the weather forecast before starting a flyball pitcher at Wrigley Field.
One of the first axioms I learned when I wandered into the world of sports betting was to heed Wrigley Field’s winds. Wrigley’s proximity to Lake Michigan gave it a reputation for dramatically affecting fly balls, which would inflate or deflate the game over/under on runs. If the wind was blowing out, fly balls were expected to sail out as home runs, and the total would be unusually high. A low total typically meant that winds were blowing toward home plate, suppressing fly balls.
Vegas already knew this, which unfortunately added an additional dimension to handicapping Cubs home games. Amazingly though, this advice was extremely exploitable in fantasy baseball. An “@ChC” note next to my pitcher meant a trip to Baseball Weather Analyzer or Daily Baseball Data (two sweet resources) to examine Wrigley Field’s conditions that day. Flyball pitchers sat on blow-out days and started on blow-in days.
Chris Constancio of The Hardball Timesinvestigated the effect of winds on HR/FB rates six years ago, and he observed statistically significant results in Chicago parks. I replicated his method on data from 2007 to the present and found that the Wrigley wind effect is stronger than ever. Over 508 games, here’s how pitchers performed in HR/FB rate, ERA, and slugging percentage allowed, split by Retrosheet’s wind field:
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Running through the notable quotes of the week that was.
SNAKES ON TOP OF THE WEST "I was spotty at first. As good as I've felt the last few times, coming out again I just wasn't there, I wasn't sharp, but I had a focus point that I wanted to get back to. About the second inning on, I was able to get back to that and at least repeat my delivery and was able to kind of turn the game over in my favor instead of the first where everything was a little up and a little too hittable."
—Diamondbacks starter Brandon McCarthy, after throwing a complete game shutout at Marlins Park on Saturday. Arizona’s 25-19 record leads the NL West. (Steve Gilbert, MLB.com)
Running through the notable quotes of the week that was.
MOTHER’S DAY “When they were growing up, it was baseball 24/7. And it's still baseball 24/7. The other day, we had Kyle on TV, Justin on the computer, and were listening to Corey on the radio. That's what we do all night, every night. [...] When the boys were born, you took 'em outside and got a ball and bat and ran around the yard. That's all we've ever done. Let's put it this way: They have broken a lot of my figurines in the front room with either a baseball or basketball.”
—Baseball mother Jody Seager, who has raised her three sons to be successful athletes. Kyle Seager is with the Mariners, Corey Seager is in the Dodgers’ system as a first-rounder, and Justin is playing at UNC-Charlotte. (Greg Johns, MLB.com)
Running through the notable quotes of the week that was.
CLAY BUCHHOLZ AND THE SECRET SUBSTANCE SAGA “It bothers me immensely when someone is going to make an accusation, and in this case cheating, because they’ve seen something on TV. [Buchholz has] got rosin on his arm. I think rosin was designed to get a grip. But the fact is, he’s got it on his arm. I’ve seen some people who have brought photographs to me. They’re false. The fact is the guy’s 6-0. He’s pitched his tail off. If people are going to point to him cheating? Unfounded.”
—Red Sox manager John Farrell, responding to cheating allegations that surfaced after Clay Buchholz’s most recent start against the Blue Jays on Wednesday night. Some members of the Toronto media accused Buchholz, now 6-0 with a 1.01 ERA, of applying an illegal substance to his pitches. (Nick Cafardo, Boston Globe)
Running through the notable quotes of the week that was.
ANIBAL THE ANIMAL “From the times I've faced him, he was a different guy tonight.” —Braves second baseman Dan Uggla, on Detroit starter (and former teammate) Anibal Sanchez, who set a Tigers record with 17 strikeouts against Atlanta on Friday night. (Jason Beck, MLB.com)
Running through the notable quotes of the week that was.
RED SOX, MLB HELP BOSTON HEAL "I think it's important that we recognize that we're all behind the people in Boston and everyone that was involved. You think about that being a song that's a tradition there, it's special to Fenway Park and the people of Boston. We're behind them. Put the baseball teams aside, we want to be there for them. —Yankees manager Joe Girardi, whose team blasted Neil Diamond’s “Sweet Caroline”—the Red Sox’ proverbial anthem—this week as a gesture of solidarity with Boston, and a tribute to those affected by Monday’s bombings. (John Schlegel, MLB.com)
Running through the notable quotes of the week that was.
MARTY FOSTER COLLECTS SAVE #300 FOR JOE NATHAN "I saw the pitch and of course don't have the chance to do it again, but had I had a chance to do it again, I wouldn't call that pitch a strike."
—Umpire Marty Foster, admitting he blew the call on Monday when he rung up Tampa Bay’s Ben Zobrist to end the game, sealing a 5-4 victory for Texas and giving Joe Nathan his 300th career save. (Marc Topkin, Tampa Bay Times)
Running through the notable quotes of the week that was.
YU DARVISH PITCHES INTO ALMOST-HISTORY "When you're throwing the ball as well as he's throwing, I thought he would get it. It just wasn't meant to be. He had all his pitches working—curve and slider, splitter, he had a good sinker working, moved his fastball around. He threw the kitchen sink at them and he threw them all over the plate. He dominated them."
—Rangers manager Ron Washington, on starter Yu Darvish’s stellar, near-perfect game against the Astros on Tuesday, where he retired 26 straight hitters before yielding a single to Marwin Gonzalez. (T.R. Sullivan, MLB.com)
Running through the notable quotes of the week that was.
IT’S OPENING DAY!!! "It's going to be pretty special. Opening Day is already just so cool, but to be introduced as the captain, that's pretty special. It's something I didn't really think about until a couple of days [ago] and then started thinking about it, it's going to be pretty special and obviously a memorable Opening Day for me."
—Mets third baseman David Wright talking about why this Opening Day will be special. (Matt Ehalt, ESPNNewYork.com)
Running through the notable quotes of the week that was.
DON’T EXPECT TO SEE JETER ON OPENING DAY "This continues to tell you that it's just not ready yet for the full duties. Obviously, it's looking more likely than not that he will start the season on the DL, and a more realistic goal is April 6."
—Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, conceding that shortstop Derek Jeter will probably not be ready for Opening Day. Jeter is recovering from an ankle injury sustained during last year’s playoffs. (Bryan Hoch, MLB.com)
Running through the notable quotes of the week that was.
WORLD BASEBALL CLASSIC REFLECTION "As you can imagine, you have to have to focus on the pitch that comes after that one. That first pitch, I had to forget about that. I just calmed myself down."
—Dominican shortstop Erick Aybar, who was justifiably irate after a questionable strike call in the ninth inning of his country’s WBC contest with the United States. He singled home the eventual winning run on the next pitch, and the Dominican Republic ultimately defeated the US. (Barry M. Bloom, MLB.com)
Running through the notable quotes of the week that was.
MO WILL CALL IT QUITS AFTER 2013 "They were always saying I am going to retire for the last 10 years, and I might play another five more years. No, I won't. This is it. I made my decision before coming to spring training."
—Longtime Yankees closer Mariano Rivera, who announced his intention to retire after the 2013 season on Saturday. The 38-year-old owns the all-time saves record with 608, and compiled a 2.21 ERA over an astonishing 18-year career. (Adam Berry, MLB.com)
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Daily Hit List: Thursday, September 20
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