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Aaron Gleeman 

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05-19

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Banjo Hitter: Gimme a Quarter's Worth: Rising Odds
by
Aaron Gleeman

05-18

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Banjo Hitter: Gimme a Quarter's Worth: Vanishing Odds
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Aaron Gleeman

05-10

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Banjo Hitter: Beyond the 90th Percentile
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Aaron Gleeman

05-04

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Banjo Hitter: The First 162: Byron Buxton
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Aaron Gleeman

04-25

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Banjo Hitter: Mr. April
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Aaron Gleeman

04-17

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Banjo Hitter: The First 162: Tim Beckham
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Aaron Gleeman

04-14

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Banjo Hitter: Jon Singleton, Suited Connector
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Aaron Gleeman

03-29

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Looking Back on Tomorrow: Minnesota Twins
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Aaron Gleeman

03-24

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Banjo Hitter: Sticking at Shortstop
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Aaron Gleeman

03-08

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Banjo Hitter: The Lost Outfielders
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Aaron Gleeman

03-03

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Transaction Analysis: Major Minors
by
Jared Wyllys and Aaron Gleeman

03-02

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Banjo Hitter: PECOTA vs. Vegas
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Aaron Gleeman

02-24

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Banjo Hitter: PECOTA's Breakout Bets: Pitchers
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Aaron Gleeman

02-21

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Banjo Hitter: PECOTA's Breakout Bets: Hitters
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Aaron Gleeman

02-16

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10

Banjo Hitter: PECOTA and the Twins, Sitting in a Tree
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Aaron Gleeman

02-07

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Banjo Hitter: Age-Old Questions
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Aaron Gleeman

01-24

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Banjo Hitter: Best of the Rest
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Aaron Gleeman

01-13

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Transaction Analysis: Going Back To Cali
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Aaron Gleeman

12-30

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Best of BP 2016: The Fall of the Ryan Empire
by
Aaron Gleeman

12-16

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Transaction Analysis: Colorado Chronometer
by
Kenny Ducey, Aaron Gleeman, Patrick Dubuque and Jared Wyllys

12-09

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3

Internet Baseball Awards: The Polls Are Open!
by
Aaron Gleeman

11-23

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Transaction Analysis: Twins Pay For Stolen Strikes
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Aaron Gleeman

11-03

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14

Playoff Prospectus: After 108 Years, Cubs Win the Marathon and the Sprint
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Aaron Gleeman

11-01

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Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and World Series Game 6 Preview
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Aaron Gleeman

10-30

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Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and World Series Game 5 Preview
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Aaron Gleeman

10-30

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Playoff Prospectus: Wrigley Goes Silent as Indians See the Finish Line
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Aaron Gleeman

10-28

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Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and World Series Game 3 Preview
by
Aaron Gleeman

10-25

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Playoff Prospectus: World Series Preview: Cubs vs. Indians
by
Aaron Gleeman

10-22

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Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and NLCS Game 6 Preview
by
Aaron Gleeman

10-19

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Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and LCS Game Previews
by
Aaron Gleeman

10-15

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Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Preview: Dodgers vs. Cubs
by
Aaron Gleeman

10-13

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Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and NLDS Game 5 Preview
by
Aaron Gleeman

10-07

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Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and ALDS Game 2 Previews
by
Aaron Gleeman

10-06

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Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Preview: Blue Jays vs. Rangers
by
Aaron Gleeman

10-04

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Playoff Prospectus: AL Wild Card Game: Orioles vs. Blue Jays
by
Aaron Gleeman

09-28

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Banjo Hitter: The Derek Falvey Era
by
Aaron Gleeman

09-13

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Banjo Hitter: Another Day In Which We Are Called To Stare At Brian Dozier
by
Aaron Gleeman

09-08

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Banjo Hitter: Let's Find the Twins a Future
by
Aaron Gleeman

09-06

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Banjo Hitter: Y'all Know Me, Still The Same Joe V.
by
Aaron Gleeman

08-25

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Banjo Hitter: Baseball's Unlikeliest Slugger?
by
Aaron Gleeman

08-16

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Banjo Hitter: The Seagers' Pursuit Of Best-Brothers Status
by
Aaron Gleeman

08-12

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9

Banjo Hitter: Winter of Their Discontent
by
Aaron Gleeman

08-09

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Banjo Hitter: How Ryan Braun Became An Asset
by
Aaron Gleeman

08-04

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Banjo Hitter: Edwin Diaz Demands Your Attention
by
Aaron Gleeman

08-01

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2

Transaction Analysis: Twins, Angels Make Seller-To-Seller Swap
by
Aaron Gleeman, Meg Rowley, Christopher Crawford and Wilson Karaman

08-01

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Transaction Analysis: Not Abad Trade
by
Aaron Gleeman and Will Haines

07-29

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Transaction Analysis: Nunez's Career-Year Moves to San Francisco
by
Aaron Gleeman and Adam McInturff

07-28

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Banjo Hitter: The Superstar as Washed-Up Hack
by
Aaron Gleeman

07-26

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Banjo Hitter: Miguel Sano Is a Strikeout Pioneer
by
Aaron Gleeman

07-21

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Banjo Hitter: The Players Who Are Just Dying To Be Traded
by
Aaron Gleeman

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It was a good first quarter for the Rockies, Yankees, Nationals, and Diamondbacks.

In this space yesterday, I examined the four struggling teams that have seen their BP Playoff Odds drop the most through one-quarter of the season. Let’s flip things around now and look at the four teams that have seen their odds rise the most since Opening Day.

(All records and odds through Wednesday's games.)

Read the full article...

The first quarter of the season has not been kind to the Giants, Mets, Pirates, and Mariners.

To slightly tweak a well-worn saying, you can't win a playoff spot in the first quarter of the season, but you can lose it.

The following four teams have seen their BP Playoff Odds decline the most since Opening Day, through slow starts, crowded disabled lists, and various other calamities. Let's take a closer look at how each team fell so far so fast, as well as how they might climb out of the early hole with three-quarters of the season left to play.

Read the full article...

This season is old enough to know better, but some early hitting performances really stand out.

I know it’s still too early in the season to draw meaningful conclusions about much of anything because my beloved Twins have a winning record, but we are far enough along that only seven hitters with 100 or more plate appearances are beating their 90th percentile PECOTA projections by at least 200 points of OPS. Two of those seven, Bryce Harper and Freddie Freeman, are great hitters off to especially strong starts, leaving five genuine, out-of-nowhere surprises among full-time position players. By the end of the season they may all have turned back into pumpkins, but in the meantime my curiosity is piqued.

Read the full article...

Byron Buxton's first 162 games have been filled with bad offense, good defense, and missed expectations.

It wasn’t supposed to go like this for Byron Buxton.

Read the full article...

Bryce Harper is off to a great start, which is business as usual for one of the best April hitters of all time.

I realize, given the Nationals’ lack of October success, that using a “Mr. April” moniker in relation to Bryce Harper may be viewed as criticism of some sort. That’s not my intention. Harper has hit four career playoff home runs—tied with Miguel Cabrera, Jimmie Foxx, Johnny Bench, Chipper Jones, and Jose Canseco for the 10th-most ever through age 24—and I have no doubt that he’ll put up plenty of big playoff numbers in the future. For now, though, his opening-month numbers are the ones worth drooling over, because few players in baseball history have ever hit like Harper in April.

Read the full article...

The no. 1 pick in the 2008 draft has not turned out as expected, yet very little has changed.

Tim Beckham played his 162nd major-league game Sunday, going 2-for-4 with a home run as the Rays’ starting shortstop.

Read the full article...

Maybe teams should be being even more aggressive signing prospects to long-term contracts.

Jon Singleton signed a long-term contract with the Astros before he’d even played a major-league game, inking a five-year, $10 million deal one day ahead of his June 3, 2014 debut. At the time Singleton was a 22-year-old consensus top prospect, cracking both the Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America top-100 lists in four consecutive seasons. Other prominent prospects—including Astros organization-mate George Springer—had turned down similar pre-debut offers, and some critics believed that Singleton was signing away his future too cheaply.

Read the full article...

Minnesota has a new front office and a friendly PECOTA projection, but are Buxton and Sano ready to be stars?

Read the full article...

How many top-ranked shortstop prospects actually go on to play shortstop in the majors?

Last weekend the Twins announced that their top prospect Nick Gordon, the fifth overall pick in the 2014 draft, would cease playing exclusively shortstop and begin spending some time at second base as well. Positional versatility is not a bad thing, but Gordon’s draft stock was based on the belief that he was a shortstop, period, so the fact that there’s uncertainty about his ability to stick there before he even got to Double-A is discouraging. As a rail-thin 21-year-old with a poor walk rate and just five home runs in 293 games as a pro, Gordon will likely need to have significant defensive value to be a big-league asset.

Gordon’s older brother, Dee Gordon, was also a top prospect as a shortstop who later moved to second base. Dee, who cracked BP’s top 101 prospects list in 2010 and 2011, remained a shortstop long enough to log 147 major-league starts there in 2011-2013, but then shifted to second base full time in 2014 and hasn’t played shortstop since. When talk of little brother Nick possibly moving off shortstop got louder a couple weeks ago, Dee spoke up, telling Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press: “I’m not their front office, but my brother is a shortstop and it’s going to be tough for him to play second.”

Read the full article...

There's a lot riding on comebacks by Michael Brantley, Kyle Schwarber, and A.J. Pollock.

Michael Brantley was one of baseball’s best all-around outfielders in 2014 and 2015, hitting a combined .319/.382/.494 with 35 homers, an MLB-high 90 doubles, 38 steals, and more walks (112) than strikeouts (107) in 293 games. He easily led Indians position players in WARP during that two-year span and placed third in the AL MVP voting in 2014. And then he missed nearly the entire 2016 season following offseason shoulder surgery, appearing in just 11 games and seeing zero action after mid-May.

Read the full article...

Pedro Strop signs an extension with the Cubs and minor-league deals galore for Mat Latos, Gordon Beckham, and Yusmeiro Petit.

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Projection systems and oddsmakers have a lot more in common than you might think.

Picture a veteran oddsmaker grinding away in a smoke-filled backroom, sweating over stacks of scribbled notes between puffs from a cigar. He knows all and trusts his gut feeling to come up with the casino’s lines for each day. That’s a romantic notion we’ve all seen portrayed in movies and on television, but it’s very far from reality these days. If there is a backroom, it’s more likely to be smoke-free and filled with computer monitors and advanced degrees. Analytics, not guts, drive sports-betting lines.

Read the full article...

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