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07-11

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Raising Aces: Breakout Breakdown: Corey Kluber and Garrett Richards
by
Doug Thorburn

07-11

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15

Overthinking It: Forever Changes
by
Ben Lindbergh

07-11

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1

Notes from the Field: Not Jose Fernandez (But the Best Since)
by
Jeff Moore

07-11

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Transaction Analysis: A Pierz to be Missing
by
R.J. Anderson

07-11

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4

Minor League Update: Games of Thursday, July 10
by
Jeff Moore

07-11

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: Buy or Sell: Charlie Morton
by
Wilson Karaman

07-11

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1

Fantasy Freestyle: What to Expect From Jimmy Nelson
by
Craig Goldstein

07-11

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What You Need to Know: Alcantara Can Stay
by
Daniel Rathman

07-11

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2014 Futures Game Preview
by
Ron Shah

07-11

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1

Pebble Hunting: The Best Defensive Game of June
by
Sam Miller

07-10

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9

2014 Futures Game Preview
by
Ron Shah

07-10

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5

Notes from the Field: July 10, 2014
by
Jeff Moore and Austin Diamond

07-10

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1

Free Agent Watch: Week 15
by
Mike Gianella and Bret Sayre

07-10

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Fantasy Freestyle: League Norms and Trade Markets
by
Jeff Quinton

07-10

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1

Painting the Black: Book Review: The Art of Scouting
by
R.J. Anderson

07-10

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4

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Crossover Season Begins
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

07-10

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3

Minor League Update: Games of Wednesday, July 9
by
Jeff Moore

07-10

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3

What You Need to Know: Chris Sale's Revenge
by
Chris Mosch

07-10

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9

The Call-Up: Christian Vazquez
by
Al Skorupa and Ben Carsley

07-10

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25

An Agent's Take: How the Unseen Post-Draft Process Works
by
Joshua Kusnick

07-09

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12

The Call-Up: Arismendy Alcantara
by
Mauricio Rubio and Craig Goldstein

07-09

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The Prospectus Hit List: Wednesday, July 9
by
Matthew Kory

07-09

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3

The Lineup Card: Eight Second-Half Decline Candidates
by
Baseball Prospectus

07-09

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6

Fantasy Freestyle: Don't Forget About Me
by
J.P. Breen

07-09

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9

The Stash List: 13th Edition
by
Bret Sayre

07-09

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11

Minor League Update: Games of Tuesday, July 8
by
Jeff Moore

07-09

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7

Skewed Left: What the CBA Says About the All-Star Game
by
Zachary Levine

07-09

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1

Pitcher Profile: Jake Arrieta
by
Harry Pavlidis

07-09

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6

Dynasty Dynamics: Progress Report: Prospect Edition, Part Two
by
Ben Carsley and Craig Goldstein

07-09

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1

What You Need to Know: The Tigers' Roaring Comeback
by
Chris Mosch

07-08

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3

The View from the Loge Level: Matt Williams Explains the Infield
by
Daron Sutton

07-08

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9

Notes About Baseball, 7/8
by
Rocco DeMaro

07-08

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1

Deep Impact: Week 14
by
Ben Carsley

07-08

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9

Going Yard: Super Hits of the 70s
by
Ryan Parker

07-08

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9

Minor League Update: Games of Monday, July 7
by
Jeff Moore

07-08

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0

Daily League Strategy: Cutting to the Chase
by
Paul Sporer

07-08

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7

Baseball Therapy: What is a Fast Runner Worth?
by
Russell A. Carleton

07-08

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3

What You Need to Know: Matt Adams Powers Up
by
Daniel Rathman

07-08

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1

Moonshot: Survival of the Fittest: Position Players
by
Robert Arthur

07-08

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23

The 2010 Redraft
by
Baseball Prospectus

07-07

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1

The Buyer's Guide: Michael Brantley
by
J.P. Breen

07-07

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1

The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, July 7
by
Matt Sussman

07-07

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0

Interleague Report: Week 15
by
Jeff Quinton

07-07

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9

Pebble Hunting: Why Do Teams Pitch to Trout?
by
Sam Miller

07-07

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1

Transaction Analysis: Good Old New York
by
R.J. Anderson and Ron Shah

07-07

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7

Closer to Me: Week 15
by
Mauricio Rubio

07-07

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82

The BP Top 50
by
Jason Parks and BP Prospect Staff

07-07

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1

Fantasy Freestyle: Trade Deadline Edition, Sellers
by
Mike Gianella

07-07

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11

Minor League Update: Games of July 3-6
by
Jeff Moore

07-07

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0

The Week in Quotes: June 30-July 6
by
Nick Bacarella, Morris Greenberg, Chris Mosch and Nick Wheatley-Schaller

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July 8, 2014 6:00 am

Baseball Therapy: What is a Fast Runner Worth?

7

Russell A. Carleton

Where should a manager bat his burners? And how much does it matter?

“He brings us that athletic dimension that we’ve been missing.”

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July 8, 2014 6:00 am

What You Need to Know: Matt Adams Powers Up

3

Daniel Rathman

The Cardinals take a close one, James Shields carves up his old team, and more action from Monday, plus what to watch today.

The Monday Takeaway
At 6-foot-3, 260 pounds, Matt Adams screams “slugger.” So when his ISO stood at .149 at the end of May, right around those of speedsters Brett Gardner and Desmond Jennings, something didn’t seem quite right.


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July 8, 2014 6:00 am

Moonshot: Survival of the Fittest: Position Players

1

Robert Arthur

How can we tell which hitters will have long careers?

In last week’s article, I extended my approach of survival modelling to examine what the early career success of a pitcher can tell us about his long-term survival in MLB. Despite the inherent randomness of the pitching profession in the age of Tommy John surgery, I discovered that by far the best predictor of a long career was the age at which a player debuted in MLB. Besides debut age, the abilities to rack up strikeouts and avoid walks meant the most for a pitcher’s long-term career outlook.

I turn the same method now to position players. Position players have different risks from pitchers, and a different set of career arcs. Position players are less likely to be hur, and more able to continue their career in the face of injury by moving down the defensive spectrum. What’s more, whereas a pitcher contributes the vast majority of his value from his pitching, a position player might be great in several different ways: by hitting, by fielding, or even (to a lesser extent) by baserunning.

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How would the first round of the 2010 draft go down with the benefit of hindsight?

It's been just over four years since the 2010 draft, and we've gotten a good look at how that crop of highly touted amateurs has has performed in the pros. To see how much perceptions of those players have changed, we decided to do the draft over again, just as we did with the 2013 draft, the 2012 draft, and the 2011 draft. We assigned 32 picks to BP authors and re-drafted from scratch, selecting only from the pool of players who were drafted and signed in 2010 and ignoring team need. Here's how the first-round redraft shook out.

1:1 Washington Nationals
Actual Selection: Bryce Harper, OF
Draft Position Change: None
Explanation: I think there is a real case for Chris Sale at no. 1 (and I imagine there'd be one for Harvey if he wasn't hurt), but I have to stick with the chalk here. I remain firmly in the camp that sees Harper as an emerging superstar. His start hasn't been as fast as Mike Trout's, but holding anyone to that kind of standard is absolutely insane. The numbers Harper has put up at these ages are also historic, just not as monstrous. —Paul Sporer





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July 7, 2014 11:23 am

The Buyer's Guide: Michael Brantley

1

J.P. Breen

Is J.P. buying the Cleveland outfielder's breakout?

With the summer trading season in full swing, the letters “PTBNL” are about to become quite familiar. However, while many trade deadline deals include that mysterious Player To Be Named Later, recent history has taught baseball fans to disregard any such player, as they usually turn out to be inconsequential.

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July 7, 2014 9:37 am

The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, July 7

1

Matt Sussman

Hey now, you're an all-star, get your game on, go play! (Sung to the tune of Barenaked Ladies' One Week.)

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July 7, 2014 6:00 am

Interleague Report: Week 15

0

Jeff Quinton

A look at the upcoming AL-vs-NL and NL-vs-AL matchups, and how they might affect teams' lineups.

Please note that in the “DH” column, the player listed is the player that has been added or removed from the lineup, not necessarily the player in the DH slot. For example, if the Phillies move Dominic Brown to DH and put Tony Gwynn Jr. in the OF, then I will list Gwynn Jr. in the “DH” column because he is the player that is gaining at-bats.

Last Week

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July 7, 2014 6:00 am

Pebble Hunting: Why Do Teams Pitch to Trout?

9

Sam Miller

Is Mike Trout suffering from a lack of respect? Or is the batter behind him overrated?

Here’s a story about Mike Trout and intentional walks: During his junior year, in the state playoffs, the opposing Cherry Hill East manager got so spooked by Trout’s batting practice display that he intentionally walked him to lead off the game; then again in his second at-bat, with a runner on first; and once more in his third at-bat, with the bases loaded.

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July 7, 2014 6:00 am

Transaction Analysis: Good Old New York

1

R.J. Anderson and Ron Shah

The Yankees take on Arizona's salary and get a pretty good pitcher, while Seth Smith gets an extension in San Diego and the Angels get a left-handed reliever.



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July 7, 2014 6:00 am

Closer to Me: Week 15

7

Mauricio Rubio

Surveying the ninth-inning situations around the league.

Tampa Bay Rays
This can be a difficult article to write. Speculating on saves is a tricky thing, one that requires following a lot of beat writers and trying to find trends written into stat lines. The closer job is a serious one, and it’s not like managers pick the closer for completely arbitrary reasons that have little to do with logic and are more holistic in nature. I mean there’s no way someone would pick a closer based on aura, right?


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July 7, 2014 6:00 am

The BP Top 50

82

Jason Parks and BP Prospect Staff

The top prospect in baseball hasn't changed, but plenty else has since our preseason top 100.

With as many eyes as we can possibly put on the prize, we seek to provide the prospect temperature of the given moment, as we take to the fields night after night armed with our stopwatches, radar guns, and in my case, thermometers. As in previous top 50 updates, we will not be including prospects recently promoted to the majors, nor will we be including prospects recently selected in the amateur draft (further explanation provided below the Top 50 courtesy of Nick Faleris). This is a list of the top prospects currently in the minors, and we use a scouting-heavy approach to support the work, either in the form of our own eyewitness accounts or via our industry sources, although in most cases the rankings are indicative of the blissful marriage between the two.

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July 7, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Trade Deadline Edition, Sellers

1

Mike Gianella

A look at the moves sellers might make and the fantasy impact they'd have.

Unless you are in a very shallow mixed league, chances are excellent that the major league non-waiver trade deadline will have an impact on your fantasy league. Even if you don’t play fantasy baseball, the deadline is a fun time if you are a baseball fan, but ever since I started playing fantasy baseball, I feel like I pay extra attention to the rumor mill.

What I have compiled for our readers this week is a helpful, at-a-glance, one article look at the potential trade market this month, particularly from the viewpoint of players who might be on the move. Since this is a fantasy article, I will focus on fantasy impact, but if you are a non-fantasy player and a Baseball Prospectus reader, I hope that this article proves useful to you as well.

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