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05-25

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1

What You Need to Know: Chris Sale, Imperfect
by
Emma Baccellieri

05-25

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3

Minor League Update: Games of Tuesday, May 24th
by
Wilson Karaman

05-25

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1

The Toolshed
by
James Fisher

05-25

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1

Prospectus Feature: The RISP Mystery
by
Rob Mains

05-25

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5

Team Chemistry: Diagnosing the Swing Swings
by
John Choiniere

05-25

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2

Transaction Analysis: Return of The Freak
by
Matthew Trueblood, Kate Morrison, Bryan Grosnick, Adam McInturff, Steve Givarz and Christopher Crawford

05-25

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7

Updating the Tiers: Relief Pitchers
by
Bret Sayre

05-25

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21

Updating the Tiers: Starting Pitchers
by
Mike Gianella

05-25

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0

TDGX Transactions: Hello Newman
by
George Bissell

05-24

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0

BP Toronto
by
Tammy Rainey

05-24

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0

What You Need to Know: About That Kershaw Walk...
by
Nicolas Stellini

05-24

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6

Notes from the Field: May 24, 2016
by
BP Prospect Staff

05-24

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3

Five to Watch: Low-A Hitters
by
Greg Wellemeyer

05-24

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4

An Agent's Take: On Poaching, Intentionally and Not
by
Joshua Kusnick

05-24

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2

Prospectus Feature: Joe Nathan's Got One Thing To Prove
by
Aaron Gleeman

05-24

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0

Closer Report: Week Eight
by
Matt Collins

05-24

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6

Updating the Tiers: Third Basemen
by
Mike Gianella

05-24

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4

Baseball Therapy: Framing the At-Bat
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-24

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11

Cold Takes: Make OBP Honest
by
Patrick Dubuque

05-24

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15

Updating the Tiers: Shortstops
by
Bret Sayre

05-24

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8

Updating the Tiers: Outfielders
by
Bret Sayre

05-24

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4

Minor League Update: Games of Monday, May 23rd
by
Christopher Crawford

05-24

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1

Expert FAAB Review: Week Eight
by
Mike Gianella

05-23

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0

BP South Side
by
James Fegan

05-23

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0

The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, May 23
by
Matt Sussman

05-23

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2

The Quinton: Trades, Supply Chains, and Lead Times
by
Jeff Quinton

05-23

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5

Prospectus Q&A: Rich Hill, Ace Pitcher
by
Tim Britton

05-23

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7

Prospectus Feature: Overcoming Negativity
by
Jonathan Judge

05-23

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2

What You Need to Know: Matt Cain's Campaign To Get His 2018 Option Picked Up Wins the Weekend
by
Ashley Varela

05-23

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1

Monday Morning Ten Pack: May 23, 2016
by
BP Prospect Staff

05-23

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3

Raising Aces: Today's Velo Losers
by
Doug Thorburn

05-23

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7

Updating the Tiers: Catchers
by
Mike Gianella

05-23

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9

Updating the Tiers: Second Basemen
by
Mike Gianella

05-23

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16

Updating the Tiers: First Basemen
by
Bret Sayre

05-23

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7

The Buyer's Guide: Nick Castellanos
by
J.P. Breen

05-23

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7

Minor League Update: Games of May 20-22
by
Christopher Crawford

05-22

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3

Rubbing Mud: So You Want to Fire Your General Manager
by
Matthew Trueblood

05-22

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0

BP South Side
by
James Fegan

05-22

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0

BP Milwaukee
by
Julien Assouline

05-22

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0

BP Mets
by
Erik Malinowski

05-21

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0

BP Boston
by
Matthew Kory

05-21

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1

Raising Aces: Shades of Gray
by
Doug Thorburn

05-21

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0

BP Bronx
by
Stacey Gotsulias

05-21

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0

BP Wrigleyville
by
Rian Watt

05-20

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0

BP Milwaukee
by
Julien Assouline

05-20

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0

The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, May 20
by
Matthew Kory

05-20

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4

Players Prefer Presentation: The Analytics of Jake Arrieta Bobbleheads
by
Meg Rowley

05-20

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3

What You Need to Know: So This Is Matt Harvey?
by
Nicolas Stellini

05-20

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14

Soft Toss: Making a Pitch for Practice Pitchers
by
Brendan Gawlowski

05-20

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3

Rubbing Mud: The Quarter-Pole Odds Changes
by
Matthew Trueblood

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Hit List, everybody needs a thrill. Hit List, we all got a space to fill.

Paste post text here

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May 23, 2016 6:00 am

The Quinton: Trades, Supply Chains, and Lead Times

2

Jeff Quinton

Considering the sequence of a fantasy trade, from research to completion, can help us to avoid missing out on the best deals.

Trades are coming. We have discussed different types of trades, the importance of trades, and a lot of other things to do with trades. We have taken a look at the actual mechanics of trades here and there (we have discussed trading with different negotiation types, how we can use choice architecture when crafting trades, and so on), but we often overlook the supply chain of a trade. If, as the internet states, supply chain is “the sequence of processes involved in the production and distribution of a commodity,” then the supply chain of a fantasy baseball trade is the sequence of processes involved from the time a trade is conceptualized to the time it is agreed upon or disbanded.

The important (for this conversation) thing about supply chain, whether that of a fantasy baseball trade or that of a new-product launch, is that it is easy to overlook. It is easy to assume everything will just work out so long as we have the right idea and the right plan. This assumption, though, causes product launches to be delayed or less profitable, and it causes us to miss out on beneficial trades. Because we want to make as many beneficial trades as possible, we do not want to make this assumption—we do not want to overlook the supply chain of our trades. Maybe you do not overlook the supply chain of your trades. If so, well done. If not, or if you want to take read about the concept, then please find the below discussion around a critical concept of supply chain: lead time.

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On the most interesting success story in baseball.

Rich Hill's latest major-league opportunity relied upon a batting practice flyball striking Steven Wright in the head along the warning track at Marlins Park last August. Two days later, the Red Sox signed Hill off the roster of the Atlantic League's Long Island Ducks, and a day after that, he made his first (non-rehab) start in affiliated ball in six years.

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DRA in depth: Finding a run-expectancy curve that would eliminate the negative DRA.

This is the second in a series of articles explaining in depth the updated formulation of Deserved Run Average. The overview can be found here, and Part I of the in-depth discussion of the revised approach can be found here.

Call me Jonathan.

For most of this offseason, my (entirely metaphorical) White Whale was baseball’s run expectancy curve; the distribution, if you will, between the minimum and the maximum number of runs yielded by pitchers per nine innings of baseball. Why would something so seemingly arcane be so very important to me? Let’s start with some background on run expectancy.

In 2015, for pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched, their ERAs ranged from .94 (Wade Davis) to 7.97 (Chris Capuano). In more prosperous times, such as the 2000 season, pitcher ERAs at the same threshold ranged from 1.50 (Robb Nen) to 10.64 (Roy Halladay). For something more in the middle, we can turn to 1985, when a starter (!), Dwight Gooden, had the lowest ERA at 1.53, and Jeff Russell topped things off at 7.55.

Here’s what those seasons look like on a weighted density plot, side by side:

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The 2010 Giants are back, sort of. Meanwhile, Noah Syndergaard continues his takeover of the world, while Joe Kelly flashes great stuff.

The Weekend Takeaway
The ghost of the 2010 Giants was resurrected on Saturday when Matt Cain delivered his first win of 2016. Yes, yes, the baseball-god-defying Giants did lay claim to championship titles in 2012 and 2014, but the last time Cain’s cFIP dipped under 100 in a winning Giants season, he was headlining the rotation with Tim Lincecum and sporting a career-high 6.1 WARP while the club marched to their its World Series in San Francisco.


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May 23, 2016 6:00 am

Monday Morning Ten Pack: May 23, 2016

1

BP Prospect Staff

Notes on Mercer's Kyle Lewis, the Cubs' flow bro Dan Vogelbach, and the Mets' Wuilmer Becerra.

Kyle Lewis, OF, Mercer (2016 Draft Class)

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May 23, 2016 6:00 am

Raising Aces: Today's Velo Losers

3

Doug Thorburn

Where have you gone, past velocity? Should we be concerned your arm will break? Hey, hey, hey.

In the last episode of Raising Aces, we followed up with the big velocity gainers and losers from last season to investigate any trends, for better or worse. We found that the velocity changes over time reflected George Carlin's view of people in general: a few winners but a whole lot of losers.

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May 23, 2016 6:00 am

Updating the Tiers: Catchers

7

Mike Gianella

Reranking the backstops based on early-season performances, injuries, and the like.

Welcome, to Baseball Prospectus’ first (or at least first time in a long time) in-season rankings update to our preseason positional tiers article. As we did during the preseason, players at each position will be divided into five tiers, represented by a “star” rating. In addition, unlike with the preseason “star” ratings, these lists can also be viewed as a straight ranking.

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May 23, 2016 6:00 am

Updating the Tiers: Second Basemen

9

Mike Gianella

Robbie Cano returns to the keystone's elite ranks, among other changes in this mid-season reranking.

Welcome, to Baseball Prospectus’ first (or at least first time in a long time) in-season rankings update to our preseason positional tiers article. As we did during the preseason, players at each position will be divided into five tiers, represented by a “star” rating. In addition, unlike with the preseason “star” ratings, these lists can also be viewed as a straight ranking.

Five-star players are the studs at their position. In general, they are the players who will provide first or second round draft value and will be worth $30 or more in auction formats. Four-star players are a cut below the studs at the position. They will earn more than $20 in auction formats. Three-star players are the last tier in which players are projected to provide double-digit dollar value in auctions, and two-star players are projected to earn single digits in dollar value in auctions. One-star players are the types of players who provide back end roster value. The positional tiers aren't simply a regurgitation of what has happened year-to-date but rather try to offer some insights into what we expect will happen the rest of 2016.

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May 23, 2016 6:00 am

Updating the Tiers: First Basemen

16

Bret Sayre

Anthony Rizzo drops down a peg, Chris Carter rises, and more changes in the revised ordering of the first sackers.

Welcome, to Baseball Prospectus’ first (or at least first time in a long time) in-season rankings update to our preseason positional tiers article. As we did during the preseason, players at each position will be divided into five tiers, represented by a “star” rating. In addition, unlike with the preseason “star” ratings, these lists can also be viewed as a straight ranking.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

May 23, 2016 6:00 am

The Buyer's Guide: Nick Castellanos

7

J.P. Breen

Is it time to sell high on the Tigers third baseman?

Nick Castellanos began the year being drafted outside the top-15 third baseman, behind guys like Danny Valencia. Almost two months into the season, though, the Tigers’ third baseman is hitting .340/.366/.582 with eight homers and 30 RBI. He’s a top-five fantasy third baseman, according to ESPN’s Player Rater.

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May 23, 2016 6:00 am

Minor League Update: Games of May 20-22

7

Christopher Crawford

Notes on prospects who stood out this weekend, including Jacob Faria, Daniel Gossett, Adam Brett Walker, Mike Yastrzemski, and Dwight Smith.

Prospect of the Weekend:

Jacob Faria, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays (Double-A Montgomery): 7 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 11 K.
Command has been an issue for Faria in 2016, but it certainly wasn’t an issue on Saturday. When everything is clicking, he’ll show two plus pitches in his fastball and change, and the curveball is a fringe-average offering with enough depth to keep hitters honest. He doesn’t have the upside of some of the other big names in the Rays’ system, but assuming he throws enough strikes, he has a great chance of pitching in the back of someone’s rotation for a long time.


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