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10-01

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Transaction Analysis: Playing a Hinch
by
R.J. Anderson

10-01

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Playoff Prospectus: AL Wild Card Game Recap
by
Jeff Long

10-01

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Pebble Hunting: The '80' Pitches In This Year's Postseason
by
Sam Miller

10-01

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Playoff Prospectus: NL Wild Card Game Preview
by
Mike Gianella

09-30

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1

Fantasy Freestyle: Playoff Spotlight: Eric Hosmer
by
Ben Carsley

09-30

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16

Raising Aces: Stuffing the Ballot
by
Doug Thorburn

09-30

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12

Playoff Prospectus: AL Wild Card Game Preview
by
R.J. Anderson

09-30

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5

Daisy Cutter: The Draw of Averages
by
Sahadev Sharma

09-30

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The Week in Quotes: September 22-29
by
Nick Bacarella, Chris Mosch and Nick Wheatley-Schaller

09-30

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8

Baseball Therapy: The Wild Card Penalty
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-29

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2

The Prospectus Hit List: The Greatest Hits List
by
Matt Sussman and Matthew Kory

09-29

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2

The BP Wayback Machine: So long Abreu; Farewell, Willingham
by
Baseball Prospectus

09-29

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8

Pebble Hunting: The Padres' Sad Team Leaders
by
Sam Miller

09-29

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: 2014 Expert-League Recaps
by
Mike Gianella

09-29

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4

What You Need to Know: September 29, 2014
by
Daniel Rathman

09-29

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Skewed Left: All Games Are Equal Except For These
by
Zachary Levine

09-29

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7

Baseball Therapy: There Is No Derek Jeter Conspiracy
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-29

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3

Monday Morning Ten Pack: Breakout Candidates for 2015
by
BP Prospect Staff

09-26

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Daily League Strategy: Our (T.J.) House
by
Paul Sporer

09-26

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6

The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, September 26
by
Matthew Kory

09-26

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7

Fantasy Freestyle: Prospect Rankings Review
by
Craig Goldstein

09-26

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6

Going Yard: How Jose Altuve Got His Groove
by
Ryan Parker

09-26

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5

What You Need to Know: September 26, 2014
by
Daniel Rathman

09-26

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0

Transaction Analysis: It Takes Stew to Make a Thing Go Right?
by
R.J. Anderson

09-26

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171

Notes About Baseball: Very Important Baseball Question: Is A Hot Dog A Sandwich?
by
Rocco DeMaro

09-25

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3

Fantasy Freestyle: Using FIP to Find Value
by
Wilson Karaman

09-25

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1

Fantasy Freestyle: Theory-Driven Versus Context-Driven Strategy
by
Jeff Quinton

09-25

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1

They Hold No Quarter: Starting Pitchers
by
BP Fantasy Staff

09-25

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33

Pitching Backward: Buxton or Beane?
by
Jeff Long

09-25

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2

Painting the Black: How David Price Gets The Best of Jose Abreu
by
R.J. Anderson

09-25

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1

What You Need to Know: September 25, 2014
by
Chris Mosch

09-24

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6

The Prospectus Hit List: Wednesday, September 24
by
Matt Sussman

09-24

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16

The Lineup Card: Best Baseball Player Idiosyncrasies, 2014 Edition
by
Baseball Prospectus

09-24

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10

Dynasty Dynamics: Jumping Ship
by
Ben Carsley and Craig Goldstein

09-24

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8

Pebble Hunting: Spoiler: Spoiling Spoiled
by
Sam Miller

09-24

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0

The BP Wayback Machine: Dayton Moore's First Week
by
Rany Jazayerli

09-24

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6

What You Need to Know: September 24, 2014
by
Chris Mosch

09-23

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11

Prospectus Feature: Colin Moran and the Matter of Draft Status
by
Jeff Moore

09-23

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2

Transaction Analysis: Wren's End
by
R.J. Anderson

09-23

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12

Fantasy Freestyle: Backing Off Backstop Prospects
by
Ben Carsley

09-23

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21

Baseball Therapy: Will StatCast Cure Our Defensive Metric Blues?
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-23

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What You Need to Know: September 23, 2014
by
Daniel Rathman

09-22

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6

The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, September 22
by
Matthew Kory

09-22

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1

The Week in Quotes: September 16-22, 2014
by
Nick Bacarella, Chris Mosch and Nick Wheatley-Schaller

09-22

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1

Interleague Report: Week 26
by
Jeff Quinton

09-22

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0

What You Need to Know: September 22, 2014
by
Daniel Rathman

09-22

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: DFS and the State of Fantasy Baseball
by
Mike Gianella

09-22

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: Circling Back to The Holy Trinity
by
J.P. Breen

09-22

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30

Monday Morning Ten Pack: The Season's Most Disappointing Prospects
by
BP Prospect Staff

09-19

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Daily League Strategy: Coors, Coors, Coors
by
Paul Sporer

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We ask baseball players an eternal question about baseball's official meal, with wondrous results.

Is a Hot Dog a sandwich?

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September 25, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Using FIP to Find Value

3

Wilson Karaman

Examining some pitchers whose second-half ERAs belied strong peripherals to see whether a breakout 2015 might be in store.

Well, it’s that magical time of year. The season is winding down, and here we sit preparing to begin our annual stare into the frozen, dead abyss of a fantasy-baseball-less winter. Fortunately, those of us in keeper and dynasty leagues are somewhat exempt from this situation because, as the saying goes, there is no offseason. This is actually, legitimately one of my favorite times of the year for those formats, as it’s the time when we can start to analyze the breakouts and the disappointments of the past season and begin to construct rudimentary target lists for upcoming trade talks over the winter and, in shallower formats, drafts next spring. I play primarily in head-to-head leagues, and particularly in this format I’ve found the following exercise to be quite valuable as a quick and dirty starting point. Since head-to-head championships are determined by player performances during weekly format playoff matchups the it tends to open up opportunities for acquiring players on the relative cheap who performed poorly down the stretch and may have contributed to a league-mate losing his or her final matchup. This “recency bias” plays off exactly the kind of negative memory impact my colleague Jeff Quinton took a long and engaging look at last offseason, and I highly recommend the read for context.

One of the primary places I like to direct my efforts at the start of each off-season is the FIP bin of second-half pitching performances. Particularly given that starting pitchers will usually only get one shot, maybe two, to contribute in a head-to-head matchup a poor finish to the year can sting that much more. And the metric also provides a valuable opportunity to sniff out some emerging talent among guys who may have started to come into their own at the big league level but might not quite have the production (or, subsequently, the hype) to back it up just yet.

To this end, here are the top 20 pitchers with the biggest gap between their second-half ERA and FIP numbers:

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September 25, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Theory-Driven Versus Context-Driven Strategy

1

Jeff Quinton

Distinguishing between the two approaches and explaining why the latter is far superior in fantasy baseball contexts.

As this fantasy baseball season ends and a new fantasy baseball off season begins, I thought it would be helpful to take a look at why I take the approach I do when writing about fantasy baseball. Consequently, I do so.

As I see it, there are two styles of strategy that can be used in fantasy baseball: (i) theory driven and (ii) context driven. While I write about theories and concepts in the majority of my articles, I am a firm believer in context-driven strategy, especially for fantasy baseball. Before I go any further, please find my definitions for theory driven and context driven strategy below:

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September 25, 2014 6:00 am

They Hold No Quarter: Starting Pitchers

1

BP Fantasy Staff

These hurlers aren't widely owned, but they might be useful fliers for keeper-league owners looking ahead to 2015.

If there’s anything we love more than baseball around here on the fantasy staff, it’s collaborating with each other. So, at the behest of myself, we’re going to be doing one final group series of the year to close out the last seven weeks of the season. For this series, we will each select one player who is below 25 percent owned in either ESPN or Yahoo! leagues who could be someone to consider grabbing before the end of the season with an eye toward a keeper spot. Now, given the depth we’re dealing with here, these recommendations are not for owners who can keep five or seven players from season-to-season—it’s more for those of you who play in leagues where keepers take up more than half of your roster (and possibly more, in the case of some recommendations contained within).

Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles
“In most years, Gausman's 3.57 ERA would be enough to advertise on its own, but in 2014, it was barely above league average, and he didn't have a ton of peripheral value, which probably explains why he's unowned in the vast majority of leagues despite a ton of prospect hype. Still, there's a lot to like here, and it's based mostly on pedigree and raw ability more than it is borne out in the numbers.


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September 25, 2014 6:00 am

Pitching Backward: Buxton or Beane?

33

Jeff Long

Would you rather have the best GM or the best prospect for the future of your franchise? And more importantly, how would you determine the answer?

There’s this captivating scene in the movie Moneyball: Over archival footage of Dan Duquette presenting a Red Sox jersey to Johnny Damon at a press-filled event in Fenway Park, a Brad Pitt voiceover explains how the A’s will chart a new direction in player valuation and roster construction. The scene is supposed to poke fun at the Red Sox, Jonah Hill having just delivered a soliloquy about Damon’s true value and how he’ll never be worth $7.5 million. But meanwhile in Boston, a team of analysts, economists, front office folks, and consultants had determined that Damon’s value on and off the field would far exceed his salary.

The dramatized scene lays down the “new way” vs. “old way” narrative playing out over the course of the film. What it really does, though, is underscore the fact that teams value players differently.

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September 25, 2014 6:00 am

Painting the Black: How David Price Gets The Best of Jose Abreu

2

R.J. Anderson

In a repeat matchup, David Price shows the many things he can do, and teaches us something about Abreu in the process.

Even before he received a proper introduction, David Price seemed to respect Jose Abreu. Consider how Price approached Abreu during their first encounter. Price pitched to him three times, and all but doffed his cap with his pitch selection. The intent was clear: Price wanted to keep Abreu's barrel off the fastball, hence why he threw him a changeup in a different situation each time. First it was in a 1-0 count, then as the 1-1 offering, and lastly to begin the day's final conflict, which led to this resolution:

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September 25, 2014 6:00 am

What You Need to Know: September 25, 2014

1

Chris Mosch

Alleged sign stealing and benches clearing spoils a fine duel in Detroit, Phil Hughes sets a record in amusing fashion, plus more from Wednesday and previews for Thursday.

The Wednesday Takeaway

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September 24, 2014 10:10 am

The Prospectus Hit List: Wednesday, September 24

6

Matt Sussman

The final Sussman Hit List of the year :(

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The staff describes a new batch of big leagers' strangest habits.

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September 24, 2014 6:00 am

Dynasty Dynamics: Jumping Ship

10

Ben Carsley and Craig Goldstein

Examining some veterans, prospects, and post-prospects you won't regret dropping.

“I will go down with this ship,” Dido sings so eloquently on her smash hit, White Flag. “I won’t put my hands up, and surrender.”

Dido was an idiot. Abandon the sinking vessels that these players represent in dynasty leagues. Get out while there’s still time.

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September 24, 2014 6:00 am

Pebble Hunting: Spoiler: Spoiling Spoiled

8

Sam Miller

Do out-of-it-teams play better or worse than you'd expect based on their talent level? Spoiler: You'll have to read the article to find out.

It’s been a pretty exciting pennant race for a handful of lucky baseball teams. The Red Sox got to play spoiler. The Astros got to play spoiler. The Marlins got to play spoiler. The Reds got to play spoiler. The Rays got to play spoiler. The Diamondbacks got to play spoiler. The Phillies got to play spoiler. The Rangers got to play spoiler. The Rockies got to play spoiler. The Cubs got to play spoiler. The Braves got to play spoiler. The White Sox got to play spoiler. The Padres got to play spoiler. The Twins got to play spoiler. The Mets got to play spoiler. Last night, the Blue Jays got to play spoiler.

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Flashing back to Rany Jazayerli's assessment of the Kansas City squad that Moore inherited.

Over the next five days, the Royals and Tigers will continue to battle for the AL Central crown. Today we flash back to June 2006, when the Royals hired Dayton Moore to be their new general manager and Rany Jazayerli wondered whether Moore and the Royals could conceivably follow the turnaround modeled by... the Detroit Tigers and their talented GM, Dave Dombrowski.

At some point, an extreme performance can't simply be chalked up to simple sample size issue. Any team can play .250 ball for a week, or two weeks, or even a month. But it is now the middle of June, and as I write this the Royals have won barely one-quarter of their games--only a narrow victory over the Angels on Wednesday kept them from falling back to exactly .250--over a span of 64 games, or 40% of the season. "On pace" is an overused term in sports, but when we say the Royals are on pace to finish 43-119, equaling the 2003 Detroit Tigers' AL record for losses in a season, that is a pace not to be taken lightly. This team doesn't just suck; it sucks at a truly historical level.

Read the full article...

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