CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

BP Articles 

Search BP Articles

All Blogs (including podcasts)

Active Columns

Authors

Article Types

Archives

01-26

comment icon

0

Pebble Hunting: What It Means To Have The Best Farm System In Baseball, Part Three
by
Sam Miller

01-26

comment icon

0

Transaction Analysis: Miami Ich
by
R.J. Anderson

01-26

comment icon

0

State of the Position: Third Base
by
Mike Gianella

01-26

comment icon

2

2015 Prospects: Kansas City Royals Top 10 Prospects
by
Nick J. Faleris and BP Prospect Staff

01-26

comment icon

0

Daisy Cutter: (A)nother (S)eason (T)hreatening (R)ecords (O)f (S)trikeouts
by
Sahadev Sharma

01-26

comment icon

0

Rumor Roundup: Papelbon Not Proven Closer To Milwaukee
by
Chris Mosch

01-26

comment icon

0

Fantasy Players to Target: Third Basemen
by
BP Fantasy Staff

01-23

comment icon

14

The Lineup Card: Eight Intriguing PECOTA Projections
by
Baseball Prospectus

01-23

comment icon

14

Pebble Hunting: The Pitchers Who Changed PECOTA's Mind
by
Sam Miller

01-23

comment icon

1

Player Profile: Arismendy Alcantara
by
Nick Shlain

01-23

comment icon

13

Raising Aces: Best and Worst Mechanics: NL East
by
Doug Thorburn

01-23

comment icon

9

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Second Base
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

01-23

comment icon

2

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Bonus Podcast: Mock Draft
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

01-23

comment icon

3

Fantasy Players to Avoid: Second Basemen
by
BP Fantasy Staff

01-23

comment icon

3

Rumor Roundup: Everth Cabrera is a Wanted Man
by
Daniel Rathman

01-22

comment icon

2

Rumor Roundup: Jonathan Singleton Is Probably Not the Breakout Candidate You're Looking For
by
Chris Mosch

01-22

comment icon

3

The -Only League Landscape: National League Second Basemen
by
Keith Cromer

01-22

comment icon

25

Dynasty League Positional Rankings: Top 50 Second Basemen
by
Bret Sayre

01-22

comment icon

4

Transaction Analysis: Colby Rasmus is the Astros
by
R.J. Anderson

01-22

comment icon

7

Moonshot: Forecasting With Fastball Frequency
by
Robert Arthur

01-22

comment icon

4

Tale of the Tape, Dynasty Edition: Nick Franklin vs. Marcus Semien
by
Craig Goldstein

01-22

comment icon

13

Pitching Backward: The Cost of Being on Baseball's Bad Side
by
Jeff Long

01-22

comment icon

1

Player Profile: Aaron Hill
by
J.P. Breen

01-21

comment icon

5

Prospectus Feature: Quantifying the Wobbly Chair
by
Andrew Hopen

01-21

comment icon

8

The Adjuster: Second Base
by
Wilson Karaman

01-21

comment icon

13

Fantasy Three-Year Projections: Second Base
by
Ben Carsley

01-21

comment icon

5

Fantasy Infographic: Second Base
by
Mauricio Rubio

01-21

comment icon

1

The -Only League Landscape: American League Second Basemen
by
Nick Shlain

01-21

comment icon

42

2015 Prospects: Detroit Tigers Top 10 Prospects
by
Chris Mellen and BP Prospect Staff

01-21

comment icon

4

Daisy Cutter: Maddon Meets the Bleacher Bums
by
Sahadev Sharma

01-21

comment icon

6

Rumor Roundup: The World Is Drunk On Burke Badenhop Rumors
by
Daniel Rathman

01-20

comment icon

11

Get to Know: Second Base Prospects
by
Craig Goldstein

01-20

comment icon

0

Tale of the Tape: Brian Dozier vs. Ian Kinsler
by
Matt Collins

01-20

comment icon

16

Fantasy Tiered Rankings: Second Base
by
Mike Gianella

01-20

comment icon

11

Prospect Mechanics
by
Doug Thorburn and Ryan Parker

01-20

comment icon

10

Baseball Therapy: Rick Ankiel's Third Act
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-20

comment icon

0

Rumor Roundup: Brew Crew Clues True?
by
Chris Mosch

01-20

comment icon

9

Transaction Analysis: The Cubs Get Raysy
by
Sahadev Sharma and Craig Goldstein

01-20

comment icon

5

Transaction Analysis: The Rangers Get Durable
by
R.J. Anderson, Mark Anderson and J.P. Breen

01-20

comment icon

20

Transaction Analysis: The Nationals Stare Into The Future
by
Sam Miller and Mike Gianella

01-19

comment icon

12

Pebble Hunting: The Hitters Who Changed PECOTA's Mind
by
Sam Miller

01-19

comment icon

2

Transaction Analysis: Unlikely Nori
by
R.J. Anderson and Craig Goldstein

01-19

comment icon

0

The Quinton: Middle Infielders, Expectations, and Weaknesses
by
Jeff Quinton

01-19

comment icon

10

Fantasy Players to Target: Second Basemen
by
BP Fantasy Staff

01-19

comment icon

9

Rumor Roundup: Big Yields Shields
by
Daniel Rathman

01-19

comment icon

3

State of the Position: Second Base
by
J.P. Breen

01-19

comment icon

0

The Week in Quotes: January 12-19, 2015
by
Nick Bacarella, Chris Mosch and Nick Wheatley-Schaller

01-16

comment icon

8

Raising Aces: Best and Worst Mechanics: AL East
by
Doug Thorburn

01-16

comment icon

20

Fantasy Freestyle: Stop Looking for Sleepers, Start Looking for Value
by
Mike Gianella

01-16

comment icon

21

Pebble Hunting: The Gospel According to Baseball
by
Sam Miller

<< Previous Article Entries Next Article Entries >>

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

January 23, 2015 6:00 am

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Bonus Podcast: Mock Draft

2

Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

The Outcomes welcome John R. Mayne and Nate Stephens to discuss the recent mock draft.

In this special edition of the podcast, the Three True Outcomes are joined by John R. Mayne and Nate Stephens to talk about the recent Scoresheet Mock Draft, and many related topics.

Information about the mock draft, including links to the resources we mention, is available in the following locations:

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

January 23, 2015 6:00 am

Fantasy Players to Avoid: Second Basemen

3

BP Fantasy Staff

You might want to veer away from these keystoners in your drafts and auctions this spring.

Previous articles in this series:

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

January 23, 2015 6:00 am

Rumor Roundup: Everth Cabrera is a Wanted Man

3

Daniel Rathman

The Blue Jays might be interested in an infielder with legal troubles, while the Orioles might demand a substantial return if they let Dan Duquette go.

Jays might look at Everth Cabrera to play second base
The Jays have a new catcher, a new third baseman, a new first baseman, a new left fielder, and possibly a new second baseman, if Devon Travis, who came over from the Tigers for Anthony Gose, wins the job out of spring training. For all of general manager Alex Anthopoulos’ efforts, though, the keystone might still come down to a competition between Ryan Goins, Maicer Izturis, and Steve Tolleson, if Travis—whose prospect stock varies depending on whose opinion you seek—fails to impress in Grapefruit League play.

Adding another veteran option with upside might thus be tempting. The Jays have some recent history of buying low on players with makeup concerns (Colby Rasmus) or performance-enhancing drug ties (Melky Cabrera), and CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman tweeted Thursday that they might be prepared to go bargain hunting in the same bin.


The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

Singleton might be squeezed out of Houston's outfield, and Ryan Vogelsong might be squeezed into the Giants rotation.

Jonathan Singleton could be odd man out in Houston
The Astros outfield has been in a fluid state during the past week, with the club acquiring Evan Gattis from Atlanta, bidding farewell to Dexter Fowler and, on Tuesday, formally introducing Colby Rasmus as the latest addition to the club. Assuming the Astros are done swapping outfielders, Rasmus and George Springer are virtual locks to be penciled into the lineup come Opening Day, with the final outfield spot to be sorted out come spring training. However, general manager Jeff Luhnow tipped his hand at Tuesday’s press conference, indicating that Jake Marisnick stands to be the front-runner to receive the bulk of playing time at that spot.


“I got to say, based on how Jake did at the end of last year, he’s going to be strong consideration for a starting spot,” Luhnow said. “But you know, I think part of the theme of how we’re constructing the roster is there’s options at every position. … Based on what Jake did second half of last year with us, yeah, he deserves every opportunity to be a starting outfielder, and he’ll probably get (that opportunity).”



The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

January 22, 2015 6:00 am

The -Only League Landscape: National League Second Basemen

3

Keith Cromer

A closer look at the keystone options in the senior circuit.

We have explored the catching and first base landscapes in the National League the past two weeks, and this week we will take a deeper look at the state of the second base position.

If you are searching for power sources, you may struggle finding them from this player pool. Only two members of the current pool of second basemen hit more than 12 homers last season, as Neil Walker and Anthony Rendon led the field with 23 and 21 long flies, respectively. You will also not find a surplus of speed from this position, as only Dee Gordon (64 steals) and Kolten Wong (20 steals) cracked 20 swipes a season ago. While there are very few fantasy stars, there are several second- and middle-tier options at second base that may not produce jaw-dropping stats, but have shown consistency in recent years delivering production across multiple categories, which makes them quite valuable. As J.P. Breen wrote in his State of the Position article on Monday, the landscape of the second-base position is subtly changing but very deep, and this holds true in the NL.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

January 22, 2015 6:00 am

Dynasty League Positional Rankings: Top 50 Second Basemen

25

Bret Sayre

Sizing up the second-sackers for the long haul.

The Primer:

Because dynasty league rankings are relatively league-dependent, I set up parameters for ranking the players below (and the ones who will follow at other positions). The list here presupposes a 16-team standard dynasty format, where there are no contracts/salaries, players can be kept forever and owners have minor league farm systems in which to hoard prospects. So feel free to adjust this as necessary for your individual league, whether it’s moving non-elite prospects without 2014 ETAs down if you don’t have separate farm teams or moving lower-risk, lower-reward players up in deeper mixed or only formats.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

January 22, 2015 6:00 am

Transaction Analysis: Colby Rasmus is the Astros

4

R.J. Anderson

Houston signs a guy who'll strike out and hit some homers, the Rangers get a better backup catcher, and Kelly Johnson goes back to the other East.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

January 22, 2015 6:00 am

Moonshot: Forecasting With Fastball Frequency

7

Robert Arthur

Can we improve on PECOTA's forecast for a hitter just by looking at which pitches the opposing catcher called?

The fastball is the meat and potatoes of the batter-pitcher contest. Variations in fastball[1] velocity and movement explain a lot of the differences between pitchers, and a good heater can set up a whole arsenal of other pitches to boot. Fastballs are the most commonly thrown pitch by a wide margin, and so they determine to a great extent the results of any given matchup.

It’s no surprise then that pitchers tend to vary how much they use their fastballs on a hitter-by-hitter basis. Some hitters see fastballs rarely, others overwhelmingly, and the difference between hitters tells us something about their power (as well as their proficiency against fastballs). Being that they are the main offering of most pitchers, fastballs are the easiest to tee off against, and so they are thrown more rarely against powerful hitters.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

January 22, 2015 6:00 am

Tale of the Tape, Dynasty Edition: Nick Franklin vs. Marcus Semien

4

Craig Goldstein

The Ray takes on the A.

You know the drill by now. Two names that land back-to-back on Bret’s dynasty list for the position get thrown under the microscope—this time from a dynasty perspective. Today we’ll entertain quasi-starting options Marcus Semien and Nick Franklin. It’s worth noting that Semien will pick up shortstop eligibility relatively quickly, but for now he’s a second-sacker.

Batting Average

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

January 22, 2015 6:00 am

Pitching Backward: The Cost of Being on Baseball's Bad Side

13

Jeff Long

What losing the All-Star game means for Baltimore.

Back in July 2013, news leaked that Baltimore was interested in hosting the 2016 MLB All-Star Game. The O’s had discussed internally the idea of hosting the multi-day event with the hopes of showcasing Camden Yards during its 25th season. The last time the O’s hosted the Midsummer Classic was in 1993, and early media reports noted the stars seemingly aligning in Baltimore’s favor:

The site generally alternates between National League and American League cities, and with Cincinnati hosting in 2015, the AL would likely be up the following year.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

January 22, 2015 6:00 am

Player Profile: Aaron Hill

1

J.P. Breen

Is there reason to hope that the Snakes' keystoner could bounce back?

Player Background

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

What makes a manager lose his job?

Last fall, the Diamondbacks, Cubs, and Red Sox all finished last in their respective divisions. The Diamondbacks dismissed manager Kirk Gibson in what was widely seen as an appropriate move given the franchise’s decline and Gibson’s grittiness-bordering-on-violence. The Cubs fired manager Rick Renteria, not because of performance but because Joe Maddon became available. Public reaction was one of uncomfortable sympathy; nobody was out for Renteria’s head, but c’mon, it’s Joe Freaking Maddon. The Red Sox retained John Farrell, whose team severely underperformed expectations. Surely he benefitted here from a wildly successful 2013.

Point being, keeping or dismissing a manager is a complicated decision, in which on-field results have to be weighed against history, context, and intangibles like leadership and respect. But of the tangible results, which types truly matter, and how much does each shade the picture? I aimed to build a model to answer that question.

The Model
For my data, I included all seasons from 1996 (first full season of the Wild Card Era) to 2013, using information I could find within or derive from the Lahman database. This includes things like win percentage, playoff appearances, year-to-year improvement, and awards won. I opted to include every opening day manager (i.e. no interim guys, whose fates are often pre-determined) and used my data to predict whether or not each would appear as manager for the same franchise next year. I chose to fit a decision-tree model with boosting. (For those interested, the final tuning parameters chosen by repeated CV were: shrinkage=0.01, #trees=350, and interaction depth=3.) I excluded the two expansion-team managers because they messed up variables that relied on previous seasons, and because I felt they deserved unique categorization but were too few to be distinguished by the model. I also excluded 1999 Astros manager Larry Dierker, whose health forced a mid-season hiatus, resulting in two separate 1999 stints in the Lahman database.


Read the full article...

<< Previous Article Entries Next Article Entries >>