CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

BP Articles 

Search BP Articles

All Blogs (including podcasts)

Active Columns

Authors

Article Types

Archives

03-06

comment icon

0

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Talking Keepers and Prospects
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

03-06

comment icon

0

Player Profile: Neftali Feliz
by
Nick Shlain

03-06

comment icon

0

The BP Wayback Machine: Who Will Be MLB’s First $300 Million Player?
by
Maury Brown

03-06

comment icon

1

Some Projection Left: The Severino Enigma
by
Christopher Crawford

03-06

comment icon

2

Raising Aces: Under the Gun 3.0
by
Doug Thorburn

03-06

comment icon

4

Fantasy Players to Avoid: Relief Pitchers
by
BP Fantasy Staff

03-06

comment icon

0

Rumor Roundup: Trout Pulling the Trigger
by
Daniel Rathman

03-05

comment icon

0

Rumor Roundup: Huston Street Might Have Relief-Ace'd Himself Into the Angels' Future
by
Chris Mosch

03-05

comment icon

11

The -Only League Landscape: National League Relievers
by
Keith Cromer

03-05

comment icon

6

Tale of the Tape, Dynasty Edition: Nick Burdi vs. Derek Law
by
J.P. Breen

03-05

comment icon

14

Rubbing Mud: A Solution Does Not Exist
by
Matthew Trueblood

03-05

comment icon

15

Dynasty League Positional Rankings: Top 50 Relief Pitchers
by
Bret Sayre

03-05

comment icon

5

Pitching Backward: In Search of the Winningest Logo
by
Jeff Long

03-04

comment icon

12

The Lineup Card: Nine Ways to Improve Your Fantasy League
by
Baseball Prospectus

03-04

comment icon

5

The Adjuster: Relief Pitchers
by
Wilson Karaman

03-04

comment icon

9

Fantasy Three-Year Projections: Relief Pitchers
by
Ben Carsley

03-04

comment icon

5

The -Only League Landscape: American League Relief Pitchers
by
Nick Shlain

03-04

comment icon

0

Player Profile: David Robertson
by
Jeff Quinton

03-04

comment icon

0

Rumor Roundup: Don't Call It A Committee!
by
Daniel Rathman

03-04

comment icon

1

The BP Wayback Machine: Can Spring Training Slugging Really Predict Breakouts?
by
Jon Shepherd and Ben Lindbergh

03-03

comment icon

1

Expert League Auction Recap: CBS NL-Only
by
Keith Cromer and Mike Gianella

03-03

comment icon

8

Fantasy Tiered Rankings: Relief Pitchers
by
Mike Gianella

03-03

comment icon

18

An Agent's Take: How To Get An Autograph Without Losing Your Soul
by
Joshua Kusnick

03-03

comment icon

6

Tale of the Tape: Fernando Rodney vs. Huston Street
by
Matt Collins

03-03

comment icon

25

Baseball Therapy: The Thirty-Run Manager
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-03

comment icon

45

Get to Know: Relief Pitcher Prospects
by
Craig Goldstein

03-03

comment icon

4

Rumor Roundup: Shift Happenings
by
Chris Mosch

03-02

comment icon

8

Expert League Auction Recap: CBS AL-Only
by
Keith Cromer

03-02

comment icon

5

State of the Position: Relief Pitcher
by
J.P. Breen

03-02

comment icon

6

The Quinton: Market Corrections and Undervaluing Closers
by
Jeff Quinton

03-02

comment icon

1

Transaction Analysis: It's the Latest Johan Santana Comeback
by
R.J. Anderson

03-02

comment icon

14

Fantasy Players to Target: Relief Pitchers
by
BP Fantasy Staff

03-02

comment icon

4

Rumor Roundup: You Can't Predict Padres
by
Daniel Rathman

03-02

comment icon

0

The Week in Quotes: February 23-March 1, 2015
by
Nick Bacarella, Chris Mosch and Nick Wheatley-Schaller

02-27

comment icon

8

Fantasy Infographic: Starting Pitchers
by
Mauricio Rubio

02-27

comment icon

7

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: The Average Keeper Rankings for 2015
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

02-27

comment icon

9

Prospectus Feature: A.J. Preller's Offseason and the Toronto Precedent
by
Steven Jacobson

02-27

comment icon

0

Transaction Analysis: The Bad Bullpen Teams Get A Little Less Bad
by
R.J. Anderson and J.P. Breen

02-27

comment icon

4

Rumor Roundup: Diamondbacks Third Baseman is on the Bobbly Chair
by
Daniel Rathman

02-27

comment icon

17

Fantasy Players to Avoid: Starting Pitchers
by
BP Fantasy Staff

02-27

comment icon

14

Raising Aces: The Eyes of March
by
Doug Thorburn

02-27

comment icon

20

Dynasty League Positional Rankings: Top 175 Starting Pitchers
by
Bret Sayre

02-26

comment icon

0

Rumor Roundup: It's Never Too Early to Think About Extending Andrew McCutchen Forever
by
Chris Mosch

02-26

comment icon

20

The Lineup Card: Nine Spring Training Job Battles to Watch
by
Baseball Prospectus

02-26

comment icon

4

Player Profile: Jesse Hahn
by
Wilson Karaman

02-26

comment icon

5

Daisy Cutter: Is Rizzo For Real?
by
Sahadev Sharma

02-26

comment icon

68

The Top 101 Dynasty League Prospects for 2015
by
Bret Sayre

02-26

comment icon

0

Painting the Black: The Other Side of PECOTA's Crush on the Rays
by
R.J. Anderson

02-25

comment icon

2

Rumor Roundup: Closer Closer to Closing Deal
by
Daniel Rathman

02-25

comment icon

13

Fantasy Three-Year Projections: Starting PItchers, Part Two
by
Doug Thorburn

<< Previous Article Entries Next Article Entries >>

Among all the things that don't matter, might logos not matter a bit less?

There’s a funny thing happening in college football. The University of Oregon has gotten very good at recruiting and even better at winning football games, which is normal enough, but the funny thing is that they’ve gotten better at winning games much faster than they’ve gotten better at recruiting. Over the past four years the Ducks have a composite recruiting class ranking of 18, which is good but not great, especially for a perennial national championship contender. When it comes to outperforming their expected performance based on recruiting class rankings, though, Oregon was the second-best school in the country, according to analysis from FiveThirtyEight.

After two consecutive bowl appearances in the mid-1990s, Nike founder Phil Knight got involved and planted the seeds for a college football behemoth. The re-branding of the school and specifically the football program proved to be a boon to the university. The eye-catching uniform combinations have become a common sight on primetime. So while Oregon is recruiting more and better players than they did 20 years ago, they’re also playing a whole heck of a lot better than they have any right to it would seem. There are undoubtedly a lot of factors that play a huge role in Oregon’s success, but do the uniforms and the logo have anything to do with it? Is it possible that players play harder when they look good? Is it possible that there’s more than just a spurious correlation between the logo on a player’s hat and their performance on the field?

Read the full article...

The staff has some ideas for enhancing your fantasy experience.

Read the full article...

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

March 4, 2015 6:00 am

The Adjuster: Relief Pitchers

5

Wilson Karaman

Examining relievers who are worth targeting in leagues that count Holds or have innings caps.

I want to start this article by stating, clearly and in no uncertain terms, that I did not want to write this article. Bret made me do it. While on the one hand, aggressively targeting middle relievers in the early season is one of my favorite strategies for driving down my pitching ratios, projecting middle relievers before the season starts for draft day consumption is just a terrible, terrible idea. Yes, the flame-out rate is high. But just as importantly, the out-of-nowhere-hero effect is even higher. Dellin Betances? Yeah, that dude got drafted in like one percent of leagues last year. Wade Davis, Ken Giles, Brad Boxberger… none of those guys were high priority for drafters outside the deepest of leagues last spring.

Relievers come, and relievers go. How they’ll perform, nobody knows. Still, there do tend to be some traits in particular you’ll want to go after if you’re targeting guys in a Holds league. For one, there’s a significant correlation between strikeouts and the Holds leaderboards. Since accumulating Holds oftentimes depends on securing outs in high-leverage situations, this would seem to follow rather logically. Jeff Zimmerman wrote a nice piece to this effect last winter, and the basic punchline was that using past performance to predict future Holds totals is basically pointless, but that middle relievers with higher strikeout rates tend to be the best bets.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

March 4, 2015 6:00 am

Fantasy Three-Year Projections: Relief Pitchers

9

Ben Carsley

Ranking the bullpen arms based on their value through the end of the 2017 season.

Previous articles in this series:

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

March 4, 2015 6:00 am

The -Only League Landscape: American League Relief Pitchers

5

Nick Shlain

A closer look at each team's non-closer 'pen arms.

As the positional series comes to a close this week with relief pitchers, we’re changing up the format for the –Only Landscape pieces. Instead of looking at the closers, all of which will have value in “only” leagues, Keith Cromer and I decided it would be best to examine each team carefully and identify interesting deep targets that aren’t in line for saves right away. This was originally Keith’s brainchild, so if there’s credit, I’ll humbly accept, and if there’s blame, well, you know where to find Keith. Kidding aside, if this does go awry, Bret, (to paraphrase Animal House) you screwed up, you trusted us.

Baltimore Orioles: Darren O’Day, Tommy Hunter
Despite being a setup man, O’Day is one of the best relievers in all of baseball. Over the last three seasons, he’s seventh among relievers (min. 150 innings) in ERA (2.05) and sixth in WHIP (0.94). He tied Andrew Miller and Brad Boxberger for the second highest earnings among non-closing relievers in standard 5x5 AL-Only leagues last year with $15, according to valuation expert Mike Gianella. He’s worth owning for the ratios alone, but he also makes for solid Zach Britton insurance because the Orioles don’t have many other options in the bullpen. They tried making Hunter the closer last year and it backfired in May when he allowed eight earned runs and 18 baserunners over 10 games. His ERA was 9.39 for the month, but he recovered to post a 1.83 ERA in 44 and 1/3 innings while in a lower-leverage role over the last four months of the season.


The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

March 4, 2015 6:00 am

Player Profile: David Robertson

0

Jeff Quinton

A look at what's in store for the closer, who left the Bronx for the South Side of Chicago.

Player Background

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

March 4, 2015 6:00 am

Rumor Roundup: Don't Call It A Committee!

0

Daniel Rathman

The Blue Jays might have multiple closers. Chris Young is weighing options.

Manager John Gibbons refuses to commit to closer
Perhaps the most intriguing element of the Blue Jays’ pitching depth chart, reinforced only slightly this offseason with the additions of Marco Estrada and Johan Santana, is the wealth of options it gives its skipper.


The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

Examining an oft-cited method of predicting regular-season success from spring training stats.

This spring, you'll hear stats cited. You'll hear stats discounted, and from some of those discounters, you'll hear other stats cited. Two years ago, Ben Lindbergh and Jon Shepherd looked at one rule of thumb about spring training stats to see if it still held up.

It’s only natural to seek meaning in spring training statistics. By the time spring games roll around, we’re baseball-starved enough to believe anything. We’re also preparing for fantasy drafts, which means we’re always on the lookout for any info that could give us an edge. And contrary to the popular stathead saying, spring training stats aren’t actually meaningless—they’re just less meaningful, compared to a same-sized sample of big-league performance. Any change in a player’s performance should produce a corresponding (albeit small) change in our projection for that player. The more extreme that change in performance is, and the larger the sample, the more that projection shifts.

Read the full article...

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

March 3, 2015 6:00 am

Expert League Auction Recap: CBS NL-Only

1

Keith Cromer and Mike Gianella

Keith and Mike share their thoughts coming out of the war room.

Last week, the CBS Fantasy team held their AL and NL-only expert league auctions. Baseball Prospectus had two representatives at the table, as Keith Cromer had the pleasure of participating in both the AL and NL auctions while I joined the NL auction for the second year in a row. Keith finished in a first place tie in the NL last year while I finished third.

Below are our recaps of how we did in the National League. The full results can be found here.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

March 3, 2015 6:00 am

Fantasy Tiered Rankings: Relief Pitchers

8

Mike Gianella

Stacking up the ninth-inning men.

To read the previous articles in this series, follow the links below:

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

We've all seen the dude embarrassing himself to get a teenager's scribble. You don't have to be this dude, and you can still get the autograph.

"Spring is here again, tender age in bloom, bruises on the fruit, but knows not what it means." —Kurt Cobain

Read the full article...

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

March 3, 2015 6:00 am

Tale of the Tape: Fernando Rodney vs. Huston Street

6

Matt Collins

Which of these AL Central closers is a better bet for your fantasy squad in 2015?

We’ve finally gotten to the week where we cover everyone’s favorite position. Who doesn’t love projecting and just generally thinking about relief pitchers with all of their spare time? It can’t just be me, right? For this week’s Tale of the Tape, we’re pitting two veteran division rivals against each other, both of whom possess the all-important “established closer” tag. Although neither are to be considered top tier options, both will be owned in all leagues, and figure to play significant roles in their respective team’s playoff chances. It’s Fernando Rodney vs. Huston Street.

Saves

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

<< Previous Article Entries Next Article Entries >>