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11-21

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10

Pebble Hunting: Hank Aaron's Hypothetical Fortune
by
Sam Miller

11-21

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25

2015 Prospects: Cincinnati Reds Top 10 Prospects
by
Nick J. Faleris and BP Prospect Staff

11-21

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5

Fantasy Team Preview: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
by
Wilson Karaman

11-21

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7

Moonshot: A New View of Plate Discipline, Part 2
by
Robert Arthur

11-21

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0

Raising Aces: Free Agent Pitchers: The Top Tier
by
Doug Thorburn

11-21

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5

Rumor Roundup: Upton and Ubaldo in One Ugly Rumor
by
Daniel Rathman

11-20

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9

Skewed Left: Saving on Stanton?
by
Zachary Levine

11-20

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1

Fantasy Freestyle: Offseason Trades and the Default Effect
by
Jeff Quinton

11-20

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3

Rumor Roundup: The Ideas That Dayton Moore Toys With
by
Chris Mosch

11-20

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0

Retrospective Player Valuation: National League Pitchers
by
Mike Gianella

11-20

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1

Pitching Backward: The Guy Who Makes Scherzer (Slightly More) Expendable
by
Jeff Long

11-20

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10

An Agent's Take: When the Smallest Transactions are the Biggest
by
Joshua Kusnick

11-20

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0

Transaction Analysis: The Butler Did It
by
R.J. Anderson and Craig Goldstein

11-19

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4

Fantasy Team Preview: Kansas City Royals
by
Ben Carsley

11-19

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0

The Lineup Card: Seven of Our Favorite Giancarlo Stanton Home Runs
by
Baseball Prospectus

11-19

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45

2015 Prospects: Pittsburgh Pirates Top 10 Prospects
by
Chris Mellen and BP Prospect Staff

11-19

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3

Rumor Roundup: Are the Marlins Stanton Pat?
by
Chris Mosch

11-19

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: Internet Commenters Try to Trade for Giancarlo Stanton
by
Ben Lindbergh

11-18

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4

Transaction Analysis: Russell Martin Gets That McCann Cash
by
R.J. Anderson, Craig Goldstein and Mauricio Rubio

11-18

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3

Retrospective Player Valuation: National League Hitters
by
Mike Gianella

11-18

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9

Fantasy Freestyle: Five Fantasy Busts
by
J.P. Breen

11-18

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8

Baseball Therapy: Against the Grind
by
Russell A. Carleton

11-18

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3

Rumor Roundup: Are the Jays Preparing to Splurge?
by
Daniel Rathman

11-18

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10

Transaction Analysis: Heyward Movement
by
Sam Miller, Jeff Moore, Ben Carsley and Wilson Karaman

11-17

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21

2015 Prospects: Milwaukee Brewers Top 10 Prospects
by
Nick J. Faleris and BP Prospect Staff

11-17

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0

Fantasy Team Preview: Oakland Athletics
by
Keith Cromer

11-17

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0

The Week in Quotes: November 10-16, 2014
by
Nick Bacarella, Chris Mosch and Nick Wheatley-Schaller

11-17

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3

Daisy Cutter: How To Win
by
Sahadev Sharma

11-17

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5

Rumor Roundup: Will Cubs Rustle Martin?
by
Daniel Rathman

11-17

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0

Transaction Analysis: Diamondbacks Trade For Jeremy Hellickson
by
R.J. Anderson, Mark Anderson, Craig Goldstein and Bret Sayre

11-17

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19

Transaction Analysis: When $325 Million Is An Easy Decision
by
Sam Miller

11-14

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0

Fantasy Team Preview: Seattle Mariners
by
Nick Shlain

11-14

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63

2015 Prospects: Chicago Cubs Top 10 Prospects
by
Nick J. Faleris and BP Prospect Staff

11-14

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5

Pitching Backward: Designing A Bullpen Usage Critique
by
Jeff Long

11-14

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4

Going Yard: Swing Dancing with Josh Harrison
by
Ryan Parker

11-14

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12

Transaction Analysis: Jays Leggo Their A. Gose
by
R.J. Anderson, Craig Goldstein and Jordan Gorosh

11-13

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4

Hot Stove Scouting Report: Justin Masterson
by
Mark Anderson

11-13

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1

Before They Were Prospects
by
David Rawnsley, Todd Gold and Patrick Ebert

11-13

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11

Baseball's Seven Wonders
by
Sam Miller

11-13

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7

Retrospective Player Valuation: American League Pitchers
by
Mike Gianella

11-13

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4

Transaction Analysis: Victor Control
by
R.J. Anderson and Nick Shlain

11-13

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0

Fantasy Freestyle: Five Fantasy MVPs of 2014
by
J.P. Breen

11-13

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0

Skewed Left: Fixing Awards Season
by
Zachary Levine

11-12

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16

2015 Prospects: Washington Nationals Top 10 Prospects
by
Chris Mellen and BP Prospect Staff

11-12

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9

Fantasy Team Preview: Cleveland Indians
by
Matt Collins

11-12

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7

The Lineup Card: Nine Teams Whose 2015 Odds Are Too Short or Long
by
Baseball Prospectus

11-12

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15

The Best Roster Cores
by
Jonathan Judge

11-12

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2

Five to Watch: More Post-Hype Prospects for 2015
by
Ben Carsley

11-11

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0

Fantasy Team Preview: New York Yankees
by
Bret Sayre

11-11

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1

Retrospective Player Valuation: American League Hitters
by
Mike Gianella

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November 21, 2014 6:00 am

Pebble Hunting: Hank Aaron's Hypothetical Fortune

10

Sam Miller

Hank Aaron would be worth a billion dollars if he were playing today. What would he actually get?

The other day, as in not today, but any other day from the storage of prior human existence, Jeff Sullivan did a simple thing that turned out interesting: He took a bunch of guys like Giancarlo Stanton to see how much they would have been worth in the 13 years following their age-24 season. This was interesting for reasons having to do with Giancarlo Stanton’s outlook, which is why Jeff wrote it that day, but it was also interesting for sweet, sweet Fun Fact reasons. At the very, very top of the list was this:

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November 21, 2014 6:00 am

2015 Prospects: Cincinnati Reds Top 10 Prospects

25

Nick J. Faleris and BP Prospect Staff

Depending on how you look at things, this system is stocked with upside or filled with a lot of question marks.

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November 21, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Team Preview: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

5

Wilson Karaman

Two words: Mike Trout.

The Angels rolled their way to the best record in baseball last season on the strength of one of the best offensive units in the league. With a lineup featuring the current best player in the game as well as one of the greatest right-handed hitters in its history, they paced MLB with 773 runs scored and a collective .277 TAv. Pitching wasn’t quite as pretty, as the Halos’ 3.58 team ERA ranked just a middle-of-the-pack 15th even though they call one of the more pitcher-friendly parks in baseball home. Despite the overall mediocrity of the staff, there were several standout arms for fantasy purposes, with guys like Garrett Richards and Matt Shoemaker coming out of nowhere to produce strong returns on FAAB investments.

Despite the regular season success the Orange Countians were quickly dispatched from the playoffs by the Tasmanian Devil that was your October 2014 Kansas City Royals. But with only Jason Grilli headed from a contributing role into free agency this offseason they’ll head into 2015 as the early favorites to repeat as Western Division champions, and they currently project to feature pretty much the exact same cast of fantasy-relevant characters. Let’s take a look at what they have to offer.

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November 21, 2014 6:00 am

Moonshot: A New View of Plate Discipline, Part 2

7

Robert Arthur

Turning a smarter, better plate discipline measure into a leaderboard--and examining what it means.

Last week I wrote about how thinking about the zone in a probabilistic way could inform a better approach to plate discipline. In brief, I wrote that the zone as a discrete box above the plate does not exist. In its place, we can judge each pitch according to the probability that it will be called a strike, building into our estimate some of the factors which we know change the geometry of the zone. Examining plate discipline in this fashion proved illuminating, not to mention predictive of walk rates.

There’s a further step we can take with this probabilistic zone, which is to bring in linear weight information in order to judge the actions of each batter. In so doing, we can get an idea of the value of a hitter’s decision-making translated into the fundamental currency of baseball, runs.

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November 21, 2014 6:00 am

Raising Aces: Free Agent Pitchers: The Top Tier

0

Doug Thorburn

Significant money will be handed out to a trio of arms this offseason, so how their mechanics grade out is certainly of great interest.

There is a thick crop of free agent pitchers this offseason, including a trio of arms at the top of the class who will likely command nine-figure deals with commitments of at least five years apiece. Pitching mechanics take on greater importance in these cases, given the long-term timeframe and the heavy cost expenditure; the physical elements of the delivery play a role in a pitcher's ability to consistently execute his pitches, the reliability of his performance, his injury risk, and his long-term adaptability as stuff naturally wanes and these pitchers get further from their physical peak.

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November 21, 2014 6:00 am

Rumor Roundup: Upton and Ubaldo in One Ugly Rumor

5

Daniel Rathman

Plus: The Phillies might have moved on from a Cuban slugger, and the Nationals have multiple starters they could trade.

Phillies no longer covet Yasmany Tomas?
Along with news from CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman that the Cuban slugger might head to San Diego for next month’s Winter Meetings comes this nugget from MLB.com’s Paul Hagen: the Phillies, once perceived as the favorites to land Tomas, may be cooling on the idea.


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November 20, 2014 6:00 am

Skewed Left: Saving on Stanton?

9

Zachary Levine

Just how much does backloading Giancarlo Stanton's contract help the Marlins?

That the Marlins are backloading Giancarlo Stanton’s contract in order to go out and sign players now is a nice story. It might also be true—there’s fair reason to doubt it, given the Marlins’ dubious history when it comes to spending—but giving him $6.5 million in 2015 rather than the $25 million average annual value of the deal frees up space to make a better run in 2015.

And Stanton is saying all the right things. At his Wednesday press conference, the takeaway line was “We’ve got to trust that we are all in it to win it,” a trust that seemed to be all but gone when Stanton was sniping at his own front office after the post-2012 liquidation sale.

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November 20, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Offseason Trades and the Default Effect

1

Jeff Quinton

Logic dictates that offseason trade activity should be virtually endless, so why doesn't this happen?

While no Major League Baseball games are currently being played, the offseason maintains a tight hold on our attention. The offseason brings every team back to 0-0 (for both major-league and fantasy baseball), and we are captivated by the hope of the new season and intrigued by the strategy each team will deploy.

Whereas in-season trades and moves tend to be limited by the competitive landscape, the offseason tends to be less limited, because more uncertainty exists about the upcoming season. In fantasy baseball, potential moves and strategies are even less limited in the sense that all teams have closer to equal resources because of parity-promoting rules and constructs such as salary caps, keeper limits, auction dollars, and draft rounds. Given all of this to go along with person-to-person inconsistency in valuing uncertain future assets (baseball players), one could assume that the offseason would be a time of torrent trade activity. In theory, each owner would continue to trade until he or she possesses each asset that he or she most values among his or her peers (obviously this depends on the value of the assets one originally owns, but you get the point). Put differently, because every owner would rank the top 300 players (or top 300 values in leagues with contracts) differently, one could assume that there would be trade after trade after trade until every discrepancy in valuation has been corrected.

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November 20, 2014 6:00 am

Rumor Roundup: The Ideas That Dayton Moore Toys With

3

Chris Mosch

Where the Royals might look for offense, where Jon Lester will find enough suitors to start a bidding war, and why Dan Haren might retire.

Billy Butler is headed west for Oakland and Nori Aoki is reportedly seeking a three-year deal on the open market. For the Royals, this means that if they aren’t willing to pony up for the Japanese outfielder, they’ll find themselves with two bat-first positions to fill one year after finishing last in the American League in True Average.

CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reported yesterday that with Butler in Kansas City’s rearview mirror, the club is expected to focus on Torii Hunter for the free outfield spot. Ervin Santana and Francisco Liriano are the reported targets on the starting pitcher market.

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November 20, 2014 6:00 am

Retrospective Player Valuation: National League Pitchers

0

Mike Gianella

An in-depth look at senior-circuit arms' fantasy performance during the past year.

This is the fourth part of a six-part series looking back at valuation in 2014. Today, I look at what pitchers earned in the National League.

Before I dig in, here is a brief description of the charts below.

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Even if Max Scherzer leaves this offseason, the Tigers will have a dominant top four. A big part of that is Rick Porcello's emergence. Here's how it happened.

Six years and $144 million. That was the contract that Max Scherzer reportedly turned down before the 2014 season. Instead, Scherzer took his $15.5 million to pitch this season, famously taking out a sizeable insurance policy on his ability to obtain a large contract this offseason. It’s probably safe to chalk this one up as a win for the insurer, given that Scherzer is in line to receive a huge contract as a free agent this winter.

Losing Scherzer will inevitably hurt, but the Tigers will still have David Price, Justin Verlander, an underrated Anibal Sanchez, and Rick Porcello in their rotation next season. Taking that a step further, Porcello’s “emergence” this season could play a role in the club’s willingness to part ways with one of their former Cy Young winners. If Porcello’s 2015 season resembles the one just past, the club will be in good shape.

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The arduous job of sticking with a client through thin.

Jaye Chapman is a professional baseball player. I first scouted him while I was a student at FSU and he was a student at Chipola Junior College. Jaye was an Atlanta Braves draft-and-follow, back when those still existed. I had the pleasure of seeing him pitch against Lorenzo Cain and Michael Saunders at Tallahassee Community College in 2004; Jaye’s teammates on Chipola that day included Rene Tosoni, Tyler Flowers, and Mat Gamel. That’s six major leaguers on one junior college field.

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