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01-30

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1

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Third Base
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

01-30

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2

Player Profile: Adrian Beltre
by
Jeff Quinton

01-30

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3

Player Profile: Chris Davis
by
Wilson Karaman

01-30

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12

2015 Prospects: Seattle Mariners Top 10 Prospects
by
Jordan Gorosh and BP Prospect Staff

01-30

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1

Transaction Analysis: Big Giant Snider
by
R.J. Anderson, Tucker Blair and Jeff Quinton

01-30

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14

Fantasy Players to Avoid: Third Basemen
by
BP Fantasy Staff

01-30

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8

Daisy Cutter: How the Indians Ended Up With Stars
by
Sahadev Sharma

01-30

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1

Rumor Roundup: Brandon Beachy Cares Not For Your Impatience
by
Daniel Rathman

01-30

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7

Fantasy Freestyle: PFM vs. the 'Experts,' Part One (Hitters)
by
Mike Gianella

01-29

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39

Prospectus Feature: The PECOTA Release
by
Mike Gianella and Rob McQuown

01-29

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2

Tale of the Tape, Dynasty Edition: Maikel Franco vs. D.J. Peterson
by
Ben Carsley

01-29

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0

The -Only League Landscape: National League Third Basemen
by
Keith Cromer

01-29

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9

BP Experts Prospect Mock Draft: Rounds 3-4
by
BP Fantasy Staff

01-29

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15

Dynasty League Positional Rankings: Top 50 Third Basemen
by
Bret Sayre

01-29

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4

The BP Wayback Machine: The Science of Forecasting
by
Nate Silver

01-29

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7

Rumor Roundup: Aaron Sanchez Is This Close To Saving 38 Games and Winning Rookie of the Year
by
Chris Mosch

01-29

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2

Baseball ProGUESTus: Why College Bats Disappeared From the Top of the Draft
by
Christopher Crawford

01-28

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8

The Lineup Card: Eight Final Moves
by
Baseball Prospectus

01-28

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2

Transaction Analysis: Reds' Mes Around
by
R.J. Anderson

01-28

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15

Skewed Left: Favorite PECOTA Comps
by
Zachary Levine

01-28

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2

The -Only League Landscape: American League Third Basemen
by
Nick Shlain

01-28

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0

The Quinton: Third Base and Avoiding Result-Driven Strategy
by
Jeff Quinton

01-28

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2

The Adjuster: Third Base
by
Wilson Karaman

01-28

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16

Fantasy Three-Year Projections: Top 30 Third Basemen
by
J.P. Breen

01-28

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23

2015 Prospects: Texas Rangers Top 10 Prospects
by
Nick J. Faleris and BP Prospect Staff

01-28

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0

Rumor Roundup: Only Half Of These Rumors Concern Kevin Correia
by
Daniel Rathman

01-27

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0

Rumor Roundup: The Dodgers + Yoan Moncada Is So Obvious
by
Daniel Rathman

01-27

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2

Before They Were Prospects
by
Patrick Ebert and David Rawnsley

01-27

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4

Tale of the Tape: Evan Longoria vs. Carlos Santana
by
Matt Collins

01-27

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0

The Week in Quotes: January 19-26, 2015
by
Chris Mosch and Nick Wheatley-Schaller

01-27

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13

Get to Know: Third-Base Prospects
by
Ben Carsley

01-27

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8

Fantasy Infographic: Third Base
by
Mauricio Rubio

01-27

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12

Baseball Therapy: Why Saber-Savvy Teams Might Want a Shift Ban
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-27

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18

Fantasy Tiered Rankings: Third Base
by
Craig Goldstein

01-27

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52

BP Experts Prospect Mock Draft: Rounds 1-2
by
Bret Sayre

01-26

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15

Pebble Hunting: What It Means To Have The Best Farm System In Baseball, Part Three
by
Sam Miller

01-26

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2

Transaction Analysis: Miami Ich
by
R.J. Anderson

01-26

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2

State of the Position: Third Base
by
Mike Gianella

01-26

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19

2015 Prospects: Kansas City Royals Top 10 Prospects
by
Nick J. Faleris and BP Prospect Staff

01-26

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2

Daisy Cutter: (A)nother (S)eason (T)hreatening (R)ecords (O)f (S)trikeouts
by
Sahadev Sharma

01-26

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0

Rumor Roundup: Papelbon Not Proven Closer To Milwaukee
by
Chris Mosch

01-26

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2

Fantasy Players to Target: Third Basemen
by
BP Fantasy Staff

01-23

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14

The Lineup Card: Eight Intriguing PECOTA Projections
by
Baseball Prospectus

01-23

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15

Pebble Hunting: The Pitchers Who Changed PECOTA's Mind
by
Sam Miller

01-23

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1

Player Profile: Arismendy Alcantara
by
Nick Shlain

01-23

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13

Raising Aces: Best and Worst Mechanics: NL East
by
Doug Thorburn

01-23

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10

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Second Base
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

01-23

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3

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Bonus Podcast: Mock Draft
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

01-23

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3

Fantasy Players to Avoid: Second Basemen
by
BP Fantasy Staff

01-23

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3

Rumor Roundup: Everth Cabrera is a Wanted Man
by
Daniel Rathman

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January 30, 2015 10:31 am

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Third Base

1

Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

Sizing up the hot corner for Scoresheet leagues.

Both in real life and fantasy, it's a joy to watch the current crop of third basemen play. The position most neglected historically is having maybe its best era, with great peak talents, future Hall of Famers exiting their prime, and a few youngsters getting ready to approach greatness. What's more, this list doesn't even contain Kris Bryant yet.

As ever, our house rules for these rankings. The keeper rankings assume that your team is in a 10-team continuing league with 13 hard keepers, including up to two crossovers, operating under standard Scoresheet rules. The more your league differs from normal, the more your lists may vary.

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January 30, 2015 6:00 am

Player Profile: Adrian Beltre

2

Jeff Quinton

The Rangers' third baseman is getting up there in age, but he continues to produce at a high level.

Player Background

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January 30, 2015 6:00 am

Player Profile: Chris Davis

3

Wilson Karaman

Come for the power, stay for the third-base eligibility... while it lasts.

Player Background

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January 30, 2015 6:00 am

2015 Prospects: Seattle Mariners Top 10 Prospects

12

Jordan Gorosh and BP Prospect Staff

Investing in international free agency and some right-handed pop has the Mariners system healthy.

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January 30, 2015 6:00 am

Transaction Analysis: Big Giant Snider

1

R.J. Anderson, Tucker Blair and Jeff Quinton

Do you seek the gold?

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January 30, 2015 6:00 am

Fantasy Players to Avoid: Third Basemen

14

BP Fantasy Staff

You might want to let someone else pick these players in your drafts and auctions this spring.

Previous articles in this series:

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January 30, 2015 6:00 am

Daisy Cutter: How the Indians Ended Up With Stars

8

Sahadev Sharma

The best players on the Indians were far from the best prospects.

On Monday I read about the Devin Mesoraco extension and my brain immediately went to one name: Yan Gomes. Mesoraco’s new contract was a nice move by the Reds, but the Indians' decision to give Gomes six years and $23 million prior to the 2014 campaign now looks like an even bigger steal and quite the stroke of genius. There were some front office executives who were a bit surprised that the Indians were so aggressive in their efforts with Gomes, extending him after he seemingly came out of nowhere and delivered a strong all-around performance in 2013 while splitting catching duties (before taking over the role full time in August) with Carlos Santana.

In 2014, Gomes rewarded the Indians for their faith in him and showed that he wasn’t just a small sample wonder, delivering a .283 TAv, compiling 3.7 WARP, and once again proving to be a strong defender (and framer) behind the plate. By the end of the season, not many were questioning the decision to extend Gomes—and maybe they shouldn’t have doubted the move from the very start. As an organization, Cleveland has done a good job unearthing and developing hidden gems like Gomes, so perhaps they deserve the benefit of the doubt when they make a move that on the surface appears to not make complete sense.

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January 30, 2015 6:00 am

Rumor Roundup: Brandon Beachy Cares Not For Your Impatience

1

Daniel Rathman

The two-time Tommy John survivor will wait before signing this winter, while Jurickson Profar is recovering nicely.

Brandon Beachy in no hurry to sign
The link above goes to the first in a series of tweets from FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, relaying a statement from Rob Martin, who represents Brandon Beachy. To save you the trip to Rosenthal’s timeline, here is the quoted statement in its entirety:


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January 30, 2015 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: PFM vs. the 'Experts,' Part One (Hitters)

7

Mike Gianella

Part one in a two-part series comparing the PFM's performance to those of owners in experts leagues.

Sometimes in these pieces, I delve into a long explanation of what I’m going to write and what I’m going to set out to prove. That’s not going to happen today. I’ve got a lot of tables to produce and a tight deadline so I’m just going to dive right into it. Today’s goal is to take a look at the PFM, take a look at expert prices, and determine whether or not I should be using the PFM more as a tool to devise my bid limits or if perhaps I should chuck my bid limits entirely. How’s that for a attention grabbing lead?

Baseball Prospectus fantasy writers get asked about PECOTA a lot. Some subscribers don’t understand why they should bother with my bid limits when the PFM serves the same purpose as my bid limits but with a more mathematical bent. Others find my bid limits interesting but think that the PFM should be featured more as we approach Draft Day.

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Tackling a few relevant topics on PECOTA day.

Welcome to PECOTA day, sponsored by DraftKings. Premium subscribers can now download the 2015 Weighted Means Spreadsheet under the Fantasy tab at the top of this page, or by clicking "manage your profile." Player pages have been updated with these projections, as have team depth charts (with projected standings) and the fantasy team tracker. Allow us to expand on a few details that might be helpful to you.

Why Does PECOTA Hate My Team?

Every year, fantasy owners and fans of teams ask this question, “Why Does PECOTA Hate My Team?” Last year, Deadspin compiled five dozen “(maybe) surprising player projections.” This season, there’s already been a Lineup Card with eight such surprising projections and Sam Miller did some Pebble Hunting to reveal some of the “winners” in the PECOTA pitching projections. This all raises the question of why Baseball Prospectus would keep publishing surprising projections. Shouldn’t these things be getting better with time, as the system is refined and there’s more data?

It would be disingenuous to suggest that projections never miss the mark. Sometimes by a lot. In fact, last season alone, 39 of the 362 position players for which Baseball Prospectus had projected 100 or more plate appearances actually amassed 100 or more plate appearances with very unexpected (to PECOTA) hitting performances. We looked at these players’ WARP-per-600 plate appearances, with FRAA removed (yes, FRAA is important, but it’s projected differently and is—sometimes—much more out of the player’s control than batting stats). Using this metric, 39 players missed by 3.0 or more WARP-per-600. It could almost have been called, “Craig’s List”, as Mr. Allen Craig was the no. 9 culprit with a WARP-per-600 difference of 4.6 … and as those who saw him play for Boston can attest, he was making a strong run to top this list. PECOTA had projected 1.8 WARP-sans-FRAA in 426 PA (March 22nd projections), and he ended up with -1.7 WARP-sans-FRAA in 505 PA. But Dan Uggla took the top honors, falling 5.7 WARP-per-600 short of projections. Steve Pearce was no. 3 and represented the top over-performer, bettering his WARP-per-600 projection by 5.4.

The above examples come from the most stable group of players—batters who were projected to play and who did play. Yet, some of the most surprising projections entering the 2014 season ended up being close to perfect. For example, people who saw A.J. Burnett pitch in 2013 thought PECOTA needed glasses, as it projected Burnett to have one of the 10 largest declines in 2014. It projected his ERA to be 4.24, which, considering the drop in leaguewide offense in 2014, would have been adjusted to 4.14. His FIP in 2014? 4.14. Projections for Bryce Harper and B.J. Upton, tabbed as “(maybe) surprising” in the Deadspin article, proved prescient.. Remember the reaction when Chris Davis had a .289 TAv projection (again March 22)? That number ended up being optimistic (he posted a .271), even though when he was coming off a .358 TAv season virtually everyone thought PECOTA hated the guy.

Seriously, though, PECOTA doesn’t hate any player or anyone’s team. There are no biases in it based on anything but historical track records. For completeness, it should be noted that results such as the examples herein are not just “shrugged off” – both accurate and inaccurate results are processed. So, while some projections are going to be surprising, it’s important to keep in mind that all-in-all, the results have been very accurate over the years (thank you, Nate Silver!).

Using Team Tracker

Everyone who follows baseball at all has probably dabbled in the Baseball Prospectus Team Tracker—the most powerful tool of its kind available. For a reminder of some of the various things Team Tracker can do, both on the Team Tracker pages and elsewhere on the site, please refer back to Feature Focus articles on Team Tracker, Basics and Team Tracker, Advanced. The primary reason it’s being mentioned here is that 2015 PECOTA forecasts are now available. Shown is an actual portion of the Team Tracker page for the hitters on my Scoresheet team. (A team which was much better last season than it had any right to be. I had the second-best record among 24 teams entering the final week of the season and then, um, moving on… ) It can be seen that even for a 24-team league, hard times are likely ahead in 2015, based on PECOTA projections. The excerpt from my Team Tracker display is truncated on the right side as a reminder that there are many other stats which can be selected for the reports—allowing them to be tailored to each owner’s needs.

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January 29, 2015 9:45 am

Tale of the Tape, Dynasty Edition: Maikel Franco vs. D.J. Peterson

2

Ben Carsley

Which of these two third basemen is likely to be more valuable over the long haul?

It's a battle for the future of your CI spot today, as we're pitting Maikel Franco and D.J. Peterson against each other in this Tale of the Tape. Will Franco ever stop swinging at garbage? Will Peterson ever play third base? Will rhetorical questions as literary devices ever work? The Answers May Surprise You:

Batting Average

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January 29, 2015 6:00 am

The -Only League Landscape: National League Third Basemen

0

Keith Cromer

This player pool might be deeper than you think.

At first glance, the NL third-base pool looks a little thin, primarily based on last year’s production. There are concerns about veterans coming off injury-plagued seasons (David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman, and Aramis Ramirez) that leave us unsure if they will be able to return to fantasy star status, along with uncertainty about the roles and fantasy relevance of younger players like Kris Bryant, Maikel Franco, and Yasmany Tomas. Despite the question marks and lack of fantasy studs at the position, the hot corner in the NL is deeper than you might think. Based on how last year played out and the landscape of the position heading into 2015 drafts, this player pool has the potential to provide the biggest fantasy impact of all the NL infield positions from a value perspective.

We start at the top, and by far the fantasy standouts are Anthony Rendon and Todd Frazier. Not only did both surpass $30 in earnings a year ago in standard NL-Only 5x5 formats and utilize the power/speed combo we yearn for at the hot corner, they also qualify at two positions, which increases their value. Rendon’s 2B/3B and Frazier’s 3B/1B eligibility will allow for flexibility in constructing your rosters, which can prove to be critical when putting together a balanced offense. Both players will go for a premium, and deservedly so, and once they are off the table, it’ll be time to study those sheets you agonized over for months for your preferred targets. This decision could prove crucial, as the next tier of players is where the potential for value sits.

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