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95 February 13, 2009 12:02 pm
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http://bbp.cx/a/8506
amazin_mess
Awesome....and you'll now see Bumgarner scooped up in all but the shallowest keeper leagues.
amazin_mess
Kevin - how close was Brad Holt to making the cut?
SC
Thanks for the list. Someday I'd love to see a 'top 10/20/50/100' prospects of the last decade, ignoring everything they did (or didn't do at the major league level. How does Price compare to Prior? Wieters to Mauer?
Kevin GoldsteinI really like this idea. Not sure how to really wrap my head around it properly yet, but I like it.
BillJohnson
Long ago, BP ran a retrospective at the end of the year summarizing how that year's top 50 (this was back when it was still 50, not 100) had fared, with graded rankings according to whether they'd met their expectations, overachieved, or fallen short. It might be nice to resurrect that as a first step in this direction. Amusingly, it disappeared before the installment for 2001 was due; apparently that year's rookie class (Pujols, Ichiro, Oswalt, Rollins, etc.) just broke the durn thing. :-)
SC
Not sure how he does them, but would Clay's translated stats be a place to start? Of course for players who burst onto the scene with little or no minor league experience (F. Hernandez, Pujols), I don't know what you evaluate them on other than scouting reports.
lailaihei
So... did Carlos Triunfel just fall of a cliff and I missed it? What's the deal with leaving him off?
Bogomil
"For expanded commentary on all 100 players and many more, pick up Baseball Prospectus 2009, available at Amazon.com now and in bookstores nationwide."
Do you guys get more or less depending on where we buy the book?
alskor
So I see you havent given up on Brignac or Adenhart yet...
Andrus at 73 and Brignac at 62...? I understand Brignac profiles as a more complete hitter and Andrus's secondary skills are fairly limited, but that still strikes me as a strange choice.
Kevin GoldsteinYou just said Brignac strikes you as a more complete hitter, yet this confuses you? I agree with your offensive evaluation there, and I don't think Andrus' defensive edge (which is smaller than one might think) makes up for it.
alskor
I know you havent done the Rangers yet... but Im having trouble separating Smoak and Hosmer as prospects. One high school, one college. One a switch, one a lefty. Massive power vs. polished high AVG. What is the difference in ceiling here? I cant eyeball it at all and Im curious to hear who scouts like more... well... Hosmer apparently, but Im curious as to their rationale. Thanks.
Dan
Are Smoak and Hosmer really that far ahead of Alonso? (Reds fan here, obviously...)
Kevin GoldsteinI'm not sure how you want me to answer this? Those are the ranking. If I thought he was closer, he'd be so, no?
jpm9263
How far off the list were Dayan Viciedo and Tyler Flowers?
ddrezner
I see there are no worries about rumors regarding Alvarez's conditioning.
One of the best things about your prospect lists is the top 11 players under 25 in each organization, which puts many of these prospects into perspective. Have you thought about a similar Top 100 list?
James Martin Cole
So no Jeremy Hellickson? I've been really high on him for a while, but I guess his stock fell after his second half last year?
Leviathan
Like the list, but Alderson at 60? I think a lot of people are overrating him, but what made you put him so far down?
FRL
Smoak ahead of Castro? As an Astro fan, I hope Bobby Heck knows something you don't.
alskor
Does anyone have Castro above Smoak? I thought this was a given...
FRL
I was referring the Astros' decision to draft Castro (at #10) over Smoak (#11) last June. As an Astros season ticket holder, it's tough to see Smoak ranked 50+ spots higher less than a year into their careers.
Dan
OK, I didn't ask my earlier question the way I meant to...
I guess what I'm wondering is, what do you see in Smoak and Hosmer that you like better than Alonso?
(With Alonso's beefy build, great walk rate, and power toward LCF, I've been hoping for him to become the next Jim Thome!)
jhelfgott
Why was Hellickson left off the list?
Fresh Hops
Two questions: what percentage of these guys (i.e. how many) are five star prospects? Also, if there's a way to answer this question, how big is the gap between first 4 star guy and Price or Alvarez? (The top prospects that don't get entire whole articles written about them.)
DGBL
Were Juan Ramirez or Hector Rondon ever in the discussion as you got towards the end?
Thanks.
jmoultz
Great list KG, thank you. Would anyone from the current draft crop (after Strasburg) make this list if they were eligible?
Mooser
So the Jays Top 11 have not come out, but with Arencibia ahead of Carrasco of the Philles, does that mean he is a 5 star prospect.
mymrbig
Two things immediately strike me - you are a much bigger believer in Pedro Alvarez than a lot of the other folks out there and you are much less of a believer in Logan Morrison than most other folks out there. What drops Morrison so low for you? I'm really surprised to see him below Alonso, given Alonso's struggles against same-handed pitchers in college.
gilgamesh
Thanks for the list ... I am curious where Gerardo Parra rates vis-a-vis this list. Just outside?
doog7642
Kevin -- Would you be willing to do a ranking of your top age-25-and-under talent? That's a fantastic feature of the team reports, and I'd love to see a composite ranking.
ScotMartin
10 catchers on the list and not one of them with the Rangers. Is it Teagarden's bat and Ramirez's defense keeping them off the list?
Kevin GoldsteinBingo! Like 'em both. Don't love 'em both.
hagan311
How close was Chris Marrero to making this list? Also seeing Brandon Allen get some recognition made my day!
NL2003
Great list, KG, looking forward to the write-up in the book.
Well, Carrasco's a 5-star, and F-Mart's a 4-star...kind of looks like there are 43 5-star players according to KG.
I'd also be interested to know the magnitude in difference, in your opinion, between 5 and 4.
I assume, for example, that Carrasco and Halman are closer in your rankings than Carrasco and FMart, right? Or is there a pretty fine line between 5 stars and 4 stars?
(And yes, I know it is an art, not a science.)
deadsmith
Anyone know who the youngest person on the list is?
Zach
As an Orioles fan, I have not seen Erbe on any top 100 prospect lists this year. You think he can overcome the control/HR issues and be a starter or do you see him as a late inning reliever?
operatic
Would Josh Fields have made this list (if he'd signed)?
And will he sign?
Joal K.
I'm a little surprised to see Mike Stanton so high, considering his BB and K rates. Do you see him as someone that can succeed because he improves those rates, or in spite of them?
TheBunk
I'm assuming that Anderson being ahead of Hosmer is because he's much farther ahead, cause all I keep hearing is that Hosmer is a once in a decade kind of hitter.
Philkid3
I'm a little shocked Teagarden or Ramirez weren't on here and by how low Holland was. That's about it.
Haven't Tea and MaxRam been in your top 100 before?
Hendo
Where would Aaron Crow have been on this list? Or would he have qualified?
Pietaster07
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Which Marlins prospect is closer to making this list? Stanton(OF) or Dominguez(3B)?
Also, I'm quite pleased Skipworth as made so much progress. It makes me feel better about the Marlins not getting Posey, me being both a huge Marlins and Seminole fan.
modred
Why are some of the player names and teams linked and others are not?
mbodell
I'm pleasantly surprised to see 4 Jays on the top 100. For a long time it has been Snider and hope.
My question is, how many of the bottom guys would it take for you to trade for the top guy? If you were a GM with Wieters would you need guys 98-100 or 96-100 or 90-100 or 80-100 or what to make that trade?
Domenik Hixon
Michael Taylor at 55? That's high, no? He's old for his league and has shown good, not great power.
oira61
Kevin -- thanks for the list. From the comments it's clear that a chat about it would be popular. Is that possible next week?
Happy St. Valentine's Massacre Day.
Zach Nadel
How do you resist putting in a fictitious prospect (a la Sports Illustrated's Sidd Finch) on the list at, say, #4, and enjoying the panic-driven e-mails from fantasy players scurrying around trying to find out who this stud is?
Guess this kind of thinking is what drove me into health care and not something like the serious, emotionally charged world of baseball projections.
Love the list- counting down the days until UPS shows up at my door with the 2009 Baseball Prospectus.
nblascak
If Jake McGee was healthy, where would he fit in these rankings?
hambone1818
Inoa in the top 20. KG, with the rate of attrition for prospects as young as him I'm a bit surprised.
goose102977
Just curious, why did Cecil slide all the way down to 90? Seems a bit lower for a lefty who experienced success in 2008.
steev
I'm noticing that there's not a single 2B on this list... is because many of the future 2Bs are currently seen as SS, or is there an actual lack of talent at the position going on?
russadams
Where is Toby Gardenhire? His bloodlines must give him that special gritty quality that some people can appreciate. I mean, if his father says that what he likes in infielders is bunting and running around and catching the ball since it's fun to watch, then Toby should be listed, correct? If Ron sets the guidelines for what an infielder should be, then his son must be the prime example.
keeperleaguegm
Kevin-
Based on Pittsburgh's need for an impact player now...what are the odds that Alvarez is up mid season?
mafrth77
Engle Beltre still hnaging around in the 60's after posting a 2% walk rate. didn't he do the same thing as Triunfel? AVG and no secondary skills while being young for his level?
azynkewl
nice job on your list kevin!
i like the players you listed, but i was shocked inoa is ranked 20th overall. sure he's got a huge ceiling and he's shown good mechanics, but he's 6ft7 and only 16. kinda makes you wonder if he'll still have good mechanics if he grows another several inches over the next few yrs. i agree he's a top 100 talent, and i know i'm not as knowledgable as you, so i could end up being very wrong, but i really think you overranked him quite a bit.
niffoc4
Great List. I'm wondering, if you rated players solely based on their hitting ability how far would Brett Wallace move up? Top 5 among hitters?
fletchdm
I am quite shocked by the Jeremy Hellickson omission. The dude had a 162:20 K/BB ratio in 152 IP last year. I don't care if you don't have a "major league body"...if you put up those numbers you belong on any Top 100 list.
Compare that to teammate Wade Davis who had a 136:66 K/BB ratio in 160 IP.
I would put money down that Hellickson will have a better career than Davis.
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