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January 6, 2010

Future Shock

Mariners Top 11 Prospects

by Kevin Goldstein

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top 11 prospects

Five-Star Prospects
1. Dustin Ackley, OF/2B
Four-Star Prospects
2. Michael Saunders, OF
3. Gabriel Noriega , SS
Three-Star Prospects
4. Adam Moore, C
5. Alex Liddi, 3B
6. Nick Franklin, SS
7. Johermyn Chavez, OF
8. Guillermo Pimentel, OF
9. Carlos Triunfel, SS
Two-Star Prospects
10. Greg Halman, OF
11. Maikel Cleto, RHP

Four More:
12. Mario Martinez, 3B: Martinez is a corner infielder who shows a potent bat, but he needs to tap into that power and improve his approach.
13. Dan Cortes, RHP: His stuff continues to impress, but Cortes' command and control issues continue to lead to sub-par results.
14. Ezequiel Carrera, OF: He's a tiny, speedy outfielder who led the Double-A Southern League in batting and on-base percentage, but he has less power than my cat.
15. Matt Tuiasosopo, 3B: Never bad but rarely great, Tuiasosopo could be a solid bench player, and soon.

1. Dustin Ackley, OF/2B
DOB: 2/26/88
Height/Weight: 6-1/185
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted/Signed: 1st round, 2009, North Carolina
2009 Stats: Did not play
Last Year's Ranking: Did not qualify

Year in Review: Having a .417/.512/.763 line for the season as a Tar Heel cemented Ackley as one of the better college hitters in the last few years, earning him a $6 million bonus as part of a big-league deal that could reach close to $10 million.
The Good: Scouts are universal in seeing Ackley as a player who could compete for both batting and on-base percentage titles. His approach at the plate is already above-average by major-league standards, and his combination of bat speed and control leads to consistent hard contact to all fields, and his 22 home runs as a junior were five more than his freshman and sophomore seasons combined. Unlike most college hitters, he's a lean, wiry, toolsy athlete with plus-plus speed, and he earns high praise for his makeup and baseball intelligence.
The Bad: There is debate about Ackley's power translating as a pro, and Ackely did little to alleviate those concerns with just one home run over 73 at-bats in the Arizona Fall League. Arm problems, including a Tommy John surgery, limited him to first base in college, so while he has the athleticism to play center, his arm will always be well below average. The Mariners are hoping to alleviate that by having him learn second base during the offseason, as while he's never played the position, he certainly has the tools to succeed there.
Ephemera: Ackely used a small portion of his bonus money to buy a matte black Camaro with blacked out windows, earning a joking nickname of "The Punisher" from his Arizona Fall League teammates.
Perfect World Projection: With his skills, Ackley could have a .300+ batting average, .400+ on-base percentage, 20+ stolen bases and, depending on who you talk to, between 12 and 25 home runs annually.
Path to the Big Leagues: For now, he's expected to begin his career as a second baseman, but the outfield is always a backup plan, so he has multiple routes to the big leagues.
Timetable: Ackley's bat should allow for a very quick progression through the minors. He could begin the year as high as Double-A, and will likely get his first taste of the big leagues by September.

2. Michael Saunders, OF
DOB: 11/19/86
Height/Weight: 6-4/210
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted/Signed: 11th round, 2004, Lambrick Park SS (BC)
2009 Stats: .310/.378/.544 at Triple-A (64 G); .221/.258/.279 at MLB (46 G)
Last Year's Ranking: 3

Year in Review: The big, athletic outfielder was having a breakthrough season at Triple-A, but he struggled in the big leagues before jamming his shoulder.
The Good: Saunders is a big, athletic outfielder with plenty of upside. He's combines plus raw power with good speed, and his quick, compact swing gives him more contact ability than most with his profile. He has good instincts in the outfield, and he's a plus in a corner while even holding his own in center.
The Bad: Saunders was overmatched in the big leagues, as he pressed and got away from the patient approach that served him so well in the minor leagues. He's gone from a true plus runner to a tick above average in recent years, and he'll likely be limited to a corner only by the time he hits his prime. His arm is a bit short for right field.
Ephemera: Players drafted 333rd overall have hit 581 home runs in the big leagues, but 564 have come off the bat of Jim Thome (1989).
Perfect World Projection: He projects as a .280+ corner outfielder with good power and walks.
Path to the Big Leagues: The Milton Bradley deal makes Saunders the odd man out for now.
Timetable: Without the opportunity for consistent at-bats in the majors, Saunders will begin 2010 by biding his time in Triple-A.

3. Gabriel Noriega, SS
DOB: 9/13/90
Height/Weight: 6-2/170
Bats/Throws: S/R
Drafted/Signed: Venezuela, 2007
2009 Stats: .311/.360/..456 at Rookie-level (61 G)
Last Year's Ranking: Not ranked

Year in Review: This young Venezuelan shortstop was the most talked about position player in the Appalachian League.
The Good: Noriega is your classic young Venezuelan shortstop, but he differentiates himself with a big, athletic frame in the mold of a young Troy Tulowitzki. Defensively, he's among the minors' best, with instincts and fundamentals far beyond his years, as well as the athleticism and arm to make the spectacular play. At the plate, he has gap power that could turn into more down the road, and also has good hitting mechanics.
The Bad: Noriega gets a bit pull-conscious at times, which has led to a high strikeout rate. He's only an average runner, but he doesn't have the kind of frame that fills out the wrong way and should be able to maintain it. He needs to tighten up his strike zone and work on his approach.
Ephemera: In the 20 games that Noriega hit eighth in the lineup last year, Noriega hit a whopping .377/.403/.623.
Perfect World Projection: Noriega looks to be a Gold Glove shortstop with above-average power for the position.
Path to the Big Leagues: He's a long way away, but the system is thin on shortstops and Jack Wilson won't be a factor by the time Noriega is ready.
Timetable: Noriega will makes his highly anticipated full-season debut in 2010 with High-A Clinton.

4. Adam Moore, C
DOB: 5/8/84
Height/Weight: 6-2/205
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 6th round, 2006, University of Texas
2009 Stats: .263/.371/.411 at Double-A (27 G); .294/.346/.429 at Triple-A (91 G); .217/.250/.391 at MLB (6 G)
Last Year's Ranking: 8

Year in Review: This backstop continued to improve on both sides of the plate while earning his first big-league call-up.
The Good: Moore projects as an everyday major-league catcher with few weaknesses. He's an adept hitter with gap power, and at times more power, and he has enough plate discipline to keep pitchers honest. His arm is a plus defensive tool, and he earns high marks for the work he's put in to improve defensively.
The Bad: Moore still remains a bit below average behind the plate, needing specific work at his lateral movement and receiving skills. He has a big strike zone and often finds himself in pitcher's counts. Like many catchers, he's a below-average runner.
Ephemera: Moore's first big-league home run on September 30 against Oakland's Jeff Gray tied him for second place all-time on the homer list among UT-Arlington draftees. Houston's Hunter Pence is the all-time leader with 67, and early-'80s Cubs utility player Dave Owen is the only other to hit a long ball.
Perfect World Projection: He'll be good, but he won't be a great everyday big-league catcher.
Path to the Big Leagues: Moore is likely a finished product.
Timetable: Moore will battle Rob Johnson for primary catching duties this spring, but will likely begin the year as the backup.

5. Alex Liddi, 3B
DOB: 8/14/88
Height/Weight: 6-4/176
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: Italy, 2005
2009 Stats: .345/.411/.594 at High-A (129 G)
Last Year's Ranking: Not ranked

Year in Review: Liddi, an Italian import, had a breakout season, and scouts were able to see through the inflated offensive environment to see real progress.
The Good: Liddi has always passed the scouting sniff test with ease. He's a tall, long-limbed athlete with good bat speed, slightly above-average power and plenty of projection for more as his frame fills out. He's a solid, if unspectacular third baseman with an above-average arm.
The Bad: Liddi is an average runner, and he'll likely fall below that as his body matures. He has approach issues that vary wildly between letting good pitches go by and flailing at breaking balls in the dirt. Some scouts were worried that playing at High Desert created some bad habits, as he often forced more of an uppercut into his swing.
Ephemera: Reno Bertoia, who played 10 years (1953-1962) as a utility player for three teams, is the only player born in Italy to ever hit a home run in a big-league game, popping out 27.
Perfect World Projection: Liddi projects as an everyday third baseman, and while there are still plenty of holes in his game, there's still star upside as well.
Path to the Big Leagues: Chone Figgins' four-year deal confuses things a bit.
Timetable: Liddi will begin 2010 at Double-A with the pressure of his first taste of the upper levels combining with a need to prove that 2009 was more than a High Desert mirage.

6. Nick Franklin, SS
DOB: 3/2/91
Height/Weight: 6-1/170
Bats/Throws: S/R
Drafted/Signed: 1st round, 2009, Lake Brantley HS (FL)
2009 Stats: .302/.318/.419 at Rookie-level (10 G); .400/.429/.600 at Short-season (6 G)
Last Year's Ranking: Did not qualify

Year in Review: It was a bit surprising to see Franklin slip into the end of the first round, and even more surprising to see him get an above-slot bonus, but he justified it early with an outstanding, albeit brief, pro debut.
The Good: Franklin was one of the most advanced high school position players in the 2009 draft. He's a pure shortstop with smooth actions, soft hands, and a slightly above-average arm. At the plate, he has a smooth swing from both sides, makes consistent contact, and is an above-average runner.
The Bad: Franklin is slight and skinny, and is unlikely to ever hit for power. He's a free swinger who will have to learn how to lay off breaking balls as he moves up the ladder. He's solid across the board and has the fundamentals to move quickly, but few see star-level impact.
Ephemera: Beyond producing Franklin and both Weeks brothers, Lake Brantley High also produced infielder Felipe Lopez, catcher Jason Vartiek, and BP alum Keith Woolner.
Perfect World Projection: Franklin has the tools to be an above-average everyday shortstop.
Path to the Big Leagues: Next season starts a race for the future job with Franklin and Noriega.
Timetable: Seattle is undecided as how to deal with two young, talented shortstops both ready for the same level. There could be a time-share at Low-A Clinton, with both players learning other positions to increase versatility.

7. Johermyn Chavez, RF
DOB: 1/26/89
Height/Weight: 6-3/220
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: Venezuela, 2005 (Blue Jays)
2009 Stats: .283/.346/.474 at Low-A (134 G)
Last Year's Ranking: Not ranked

Year in Review: A big right fielder, Chavez made tremendous progress in his second year in the Midwest League before being included in the Brandon Morrow deal.
The Good: Chavez is a prototypical right fielder, as he's a physically imposing right fielder with plus power and a very good arm. He takes a big swing and is capable of hitting the ball out of any park, to any field. He made significant improvements in his approach last year, laying off of more bad pitches and getting himself into hitter's counts. He's a good athlete for his size, and a solid outfielder.
The Bad: Chavez's power-only swing leads to plenty of strikeouts, and he needs to temper his two-strike approach. There are worries about just how big he'll be once he fully matures, as he could lose speed down the road.
Ephemera: When batting in the sixth inning of games for Lansing in 2009, Chavez went 24-for-64 (.375) with six home runs.
Perfect World Projection: He stands to be a prototypical power-hitting corner outfielder.
Path to the Big Leagues: The Mariners have a stable big-league outfield, but there is still considerable distance between Chavez and the big leagues.
Timetable: Chavez is the kind of player who could put up some ridiculous numbers in 2010 at High-A High Desert.

8. Guillermo Pimentel, OF
DOB: 10/5/92
Height/Weight: 6-1/180
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted/Signed: Dominican Republic, 2009
2009 Stats: Did not play
Last Year's Ranking: Did not qualify

Year in Review: Seattle continued to be an aggressive player on the international market, spending $2 million to bring Pimentel to the Mariners.
The Good: Pimentel's power from the left side is a rare commodity, as he has plus-plus raw power now, with some international scouts putting a future 80 on the tool, and one going as far to say Pimentel reminds him of "a young Juan Gonzalez from the left side." The power comes from a combination of raw strength and bat speed, and his swing needs little mechanical adjustments.
The Bad: Unlike most seven-figure Dominican outfielders, much of Pimentel's future lies solely in his bat. He's an average runner at best which, combined with a below-average arm, has him profiling best as a left fielder. There is some question about his pure ability to hit, as he struggled with anything other than fastballs in limited looks.
Ephemera: Ken Griffey had 652 big league hits and 87 home runs before Pimentel was born.
Perfect World Projection: He could be a clean-up hitting left fielder on a first-division club.
Path to the Big Leagues: All he has right now is a path to los Estados Unidos.
Timetable: Pimentel won't show up in a box score until the complex leagues begin in Arizona.

9. Carlos Triunfel, SS
DOB: 2/27/90
Height/Weight: 5-11/175
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: Dominican Republic, 2006
2009 Stats: .250/.250/.313 at Rookie-level (4 G); .231/.286/.269 at Double-A (7 G)
Last Year's Ranking: 6

Year in Review: Triunfel, a high-ceiling infielder, was limited to just 11 games due to a broken leg, and then looked exceptionally rusty in the Arizona Fall League.
The Good: Scouts still have his praise for Triunfel's bat, as he has an excellent knack for putting the thick part of the bat onto pitches regardless of type or location. His arm is an absolute rocket, and he showed above-average speed before the injury.
The Bad: Much-hyped throughout his career, Triunfel has yet to perform well for an extended period of time at any level. His swing is generated far more for line drives than power, and his body is already thickening up, which will likely require a move to third base. He tends to lose focus defensively, leading to plenty of sloppy errors.
Ephemera: Of Triunfel's eight career home runs in 849 at-bats, seven have come in the pinball machine that is High Desert.
Perfect World Projection: He projects to be a high-average, plus defensive second or third baseman.
Path to the Big Leagues: He's played just 215 games in three years, so health and finding a permanent position for Triunfel are the first priorities.
Timetable: Triunfel will return to Double-A in 2010 and, at 20, he'll still be one of the youngest players in the league.

10. Greg Halman, CF
DOB: 8/26/87
Height/Weight: 6-4/190
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: Netherlands, 2004
2009 Stats: .182/.308/.364 at Rookie-level (3 G); .210/.278/.420 at Double-A (121 G)
Last Year's Ranking: 1

Year in Review: The Mariners' top prospect entering the year, Halman saw his bad approach at the plate completely fall apart, as he struggled to keep his batting average above the Mendoza line at Double-A and struck out 191 times in 468 at-bats.
The Good: On pure tools alone, Halman remains at the elite level. He has plus-plus raw power, so when he actually makes contact, it's very hard, with 46 percent of his hits going for extra bases, and 26 percent of them leaving the yard. He's a big, graceful athlete with above-average speed, good outfielder instincts, and a very strong arm.
The Bad: Halman swings at anything and everything, not just missing a lot of pitches, but often looking comical when doing so. If he doesn't begin to make significant progress in his approach and pitch recognition, everything else he brings to the table just isn't going to matter. Instead of maturing in 2009, he went backwards.
Ephemera: Halman struck out 50 times in the month of May alone, over just 97 at-bats.
Perfect World Projection: If he figures it out, he's a star, but those chances seem dim at this point.
Path to the Big Leagues: He has no path until he stops whiffing once every 2.5 at-bats.
Timetable: Halman will likely return to Double-A in 2010 as part of what could end up being a make-or-break season for his prospect status.

11. Maikel Cleto, RHP
DOB: 5/1/89
Height/Weight: 6-3/220
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: Dominican Republic, 2006 (Mets)
2009 Stats: 13.50 ERA (0.2-3-1-1) at Rookie-level (1 G); 5.33 ERA (25.1-35-11-24) at Low-A (8 G)
Last Year's Ranking: Just missed

Year in Review: A power arm acquired from New York in the J.J. Putz three-way deal, Cleto spent the first half of 2009 stuck in the Dominican due to visa issues, and he looked rusty upon his return.
The Good: Cleto's upside remains considerable, as his fastball sits in the mid-90s with a bit of sink, touching 98 at times. He's a big, physical presence on the mound and built to eat innings.
The Bad: One scout classified Cleto simply as "a spectacular mess." Beyond the impressive velocity, he brings little else to the table, as his slider and changeup are rudimentary offerings.
Ephemera: Cleto dominated Peoria during his brief Midwest League tenure, striking out 10 and allowing just one run over eight innings. In his six appearances against other opponents, he had an ERA of 7.27.
Perfect World Projection: He's a power arm for sure, but without refinement, he's going to be in the bullpen.
Path to the Big Leagues: As a reliever, he could move quickly, but at his age, it's too early to commit to that role.
Timetable: Cleto's spring showing will determine his assignment, but he could begin the year back at Clinton in order to find some success and avoid the nightmare of pitching in High Desert.

The Sleeper: Right-hander Anthony Varvaro is a small right-hander with a big arm who impressed scouts with his velocity and command in the Arizona Fall League and could end up as a late-inning relief specialist.

Top 10 Talents 25 And Under (Born 4/1/84 or later)

1. Felix Hernandez, RHP
2. Dustin Ackley, OF/2B
3. Michael Saunders, OF
4. Gabriel Noriega, SS
5. Adam Moore, C
6. Alex Liddi, 3B
7. Nick Franklin, SS
8. Johermyn Chavez, OF
9. Guillermo Pimentel, OF
10. Yusmeiro Petit, RHP

Hernandez is a no-brainer as the top talent, and 2009 is really just the beginning, as there are still two-four years of growth still in him. It will be interesting to see how he bounces back from a nearly 240-inning workload in 2010. I might be the world's only remaining believer in Petit as a solid back-end rotation type, as despite sub-standard stuff, his deception and command have led to nearly seven strikeouts per nine in the big leagues, while his fly-ball tendencies should work better in Seattle. Just missing is reliever Shawn Kelley, a strike-zone pounding reliever who has already reached his ceiling.

Summary: The Mariners have traded away many prospects over the last two years, including an impressive trio for Cliff Lee, so the system is a bit thin. Ackley gives them an elite-level talent at the top, and while it's not a good system overall, there are plenty of high-upside teenagers at the lower levels, so there's plenty of potential.


Next up: the Tampa Bay Rays.

Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Kevin's other articles. You can contact Kevin by clicking here

46 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

Jeff Reese

What have you heard about Rich Poythress? I'm mildly surprised he didn't make the top 15.

Jan 06, 2010 09:23 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

I've made my feelings about first base prospects no secret. If you don't absolutely mash, I have problems with you as a prospect. Double-A was a heady assignment to begin with, but I know plenty of scouts who saw him as one of those college bats that wouldn't translate well. He ended up 17th for me.

Jan 06, 2010 10:08 AM
 
Drew Miller

I love these--the rankings are fun. I do have a question about this year's value system. Earlier I saw that Carlos Carrasco is down to a three-star prospect (from five last year), even though his outlook hasn't changed from "third starter". Similarly, I'd have expected a "good...everyday big-league catcher" who is a "finished product" (Moore) to be more than a three-star prospect.

Did you change your valuations to be a big more strict on who earns the higher grades?

Jan 06, 2010 09:23 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

I think for Carrasco, it's more of a situation where while his perfect world projection hasn't changed, the percentage change of him reaching the projection has dropped significantly for me. Moore was close to a four star, but I just don't see much impact potential for him as much as I think he's a nice piece.

Jan 06, 2010 10:10 AM
 
philly

Not being able to crack the top 15 of a thin system is a pretty bad sign for Josh Fields. What are the main concerns - a decline in stuff from college, durability, etc.

Jan 06, 2010 09:53 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Durability and mechanics have always been a big issue, and you can add command and control as well. The biggest issue was the dramatic loss of velocity, and while it picked up a bit in Arizona, at Double-A he was often just 90-93, and his slider lost significant crispness. I just had too many scouts who had a WTF reaction to see him in order to put him there, he was in my 20-25 range.

Jan 06, 2010 10:12 AM
 
jeffstoned

Kevin, I read that the Phillies basically had the choice between Saunders and Gillies in the Lee trade. Assuming this is true, did they choose unwisely?

And, not to spoil the Phils' list, but around where do you think you'd have put Gillies, Aumont and Ramirez in this group?

Jan 06, 2010 09:53 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Personally, I'd have Saunders ahead of Gilles, and by a good sized margin. That said, if that is true, I can't say I'm shocked, as the Phillies adore athletes, esp. ones with elite-level speed. I'd have Aumont ahead of Gilles for sure.

Jan 06, 2010 10:14 AM
 
mymrbig

Great stuff Kevin!

You comment on the diverging opinions of Ackley's power ceiling, but you didn't weigh in. What kind of power do you see him showing in the majors in his prime?

Saunders struggled a good bit with LHP in AAA last year, but it didn't seem to be too much of a problem before that. Is this a major concern, or do you expect him to adjust with more experience?

Jan 06, 2010 10:11 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

I think it's mostly a small sample size issue. I brought it up with some scouts, all of whom saw it as a normal platoon, although he does swing with less . . . confidence, if you will against southpaws, focusing more on contact, so most of his power is vs. RHP.

As for Ackley, I think he'll be a 18-22 HR guy in is prime, but never a huge bopper.

Jan 06, 2010 10:17 AM
 
lworkin

Thanks for the prospect lists, enjoyable reading.

Michael Pineda, injuries keeping him off the list or something else?

Jan 06, 2010 10:19 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

I like him as a strike-thrower who tends to keep the ball on the ground, but most think his profile is as a reliever.

Jan 06, 2010 10:31 AM
 
evo34

Wow. Pineda just ranked as #16 in all of MLB at BA, yet not in your top 15 for the Mariners alone..

No idea who is right, but this might be the biggest prospect opinion disparity between BP and BA that I have ever seen.

Feb 23, 2011 12:47 PM
rating: 0
 
mbrignall

What about Mauricio Robles? I know he's pretty far from the bigs, but trader Jack was really high on him after the trade, and he was pretty good at High Desert.

Jan 06, 2010 11:07 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

He was 15-20, and I almost made him the sleeper. Small lefty with HUGE arm, but could be set-up man ceiling.

Jan 06, 2010 11:34 AM
 
JC

Did Mike Carp come anywhere near this list?

Jan 06, 2010 12:16 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

He was in the 15-20 list. See first baseman comments.

Jan 06, 2010 13:30 PM
 
sports2shop

Hi Kevin,

With all due respect, I think you might have missed OF Carlos Peguero on this list. Yes, he played in the California League which is a hitter's paradise, but for a 21-year old who hit 31 HRs and 66 extra base hits at HiA not to even make the top 15 for the Mariners?? I would definitely rate Peguero higher than Chavez who had to repeat Low A this year and still put up inferior numbers to Peguero. I know you are one of the few experts out there who give Koby Clemens credit despite playing in the Cal League so how about a little love for Peguero as well?

Jan 06, 2010 13:15 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Carlos Peguero struck out 172 times in 491 at-bats. Away from High Desert, he hit .236/.284/.449. I couldn't get much positiveness from scouts on him, either. He was not missed, simply nothing in my process merited his inclusion. I give Koby Clemens plenty of credit, but I absolutely kept the ballpark in mind at all times, and even in a horrible Houston system, he's not going to rate all that high.

Jan 06, 2010 13:29 PM
 
sports2shop

Thanks Kevin. But I will still staunchly advocate for including Peguero on this list. After all, you have Halman rated despite 183 Ks in fewer ABs (457) for an abysmal .210/.278/.420 line. Strikeouts aren't everything. Mark Reynolds slugged .543 while striking out 223 times in 578 ABs. In a power starved Mariners organization, I still think Carlos Peguero should have been rated in the Top 10. BTW, Peguero slugged .560 this year...

Jan 06, 2010 13:45 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

High Desert, High Desert, High Desert, and he has nowhere near Halman's tools. You can advocate all you want, I'm simply saying why I personally did not include him.

Jan 06, 2010 13:47 PM
 
Drew Miller

Reynolds is the exception, not the rule (and he's nearly the only one). Besides, lots and lots of strikeouts in the minors often means an inability to hit a particular pitch or assortment of pitches in various zones. Unless he improves his strikeout rate Peguero is going to be eaten alive by AAA pitching, let alone MLB pitching.

Jan 06, 2010 21:23 PM
rating: 0
 
sungods7n

Not to mention that .236/.284/.449 way from High Desert includes .300/.314/.620 with 4 HR in 11 games in Lancaster. That leaves something like .221/.277/.407 in relatively normal parks.

Jan 06, 2010 20:11 PM
rating: 1
 
Cromulent

You mentioned recently that you would soon be making a Neftali Feliz level early call on a prospect. Is it Noriega? He's an intriguing package but it seems an aggressive rating.

Jan 06, 2010 13:20 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

It's an aggressive rating for sure, but I adore Noriega's profile and uniqueness, but he's not the guy. The guy is a pitcher, and he's coming very soon.

Jan 06, 2010 13:26 PM
 
Ira

is it Martin Perez? He's a stud.

Jan 06, 2010 13:55 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Sure, but everyone has him high.

Jan 06, 2010 14:00 PM
 
Al Skorupa

My money is on Profar.

Jan 06, 2010 14:18 PM
rating: 0
 
Al Skorupa

Crap. Its a pitcher?

Jan 06, 2010 14:18 PM
rating: 0
 
Al Skorupa

American League at least??

Now Im stumped.

Jan 06, 2010 14:20 PM
rating: 0
 
sungods7n

My guess, his initials are AC and we will know by the end of the week.

Jan 06, 2010 14:39 PM
rating: 0
 
zywica

I think it depends on just how similar this pitcher is to the Feliz case. In that one, BA (Ballew) completely missed the boat, while KG was so on the money. With Colome, it's not like BA, et al are really overlooking him. Kevin would just like him a notch or two more. Ranking just behind the SSs in that system has him almost with a top 100 type of ranking. At best that's more of a 2008 Feliz scenario than when Goldstein first raved about him so boldly and correctly.

In that vein, I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that Wilking Rodriguez is Goldstein's guy. Like Feliz, Rodriguez apparently ranks in the teens on BA's list, and with Ballew ranking the Rays there are just so many parallels.

Jan 06, 2010 20:15 PM
rating: 0
 
sungods7n

KG has been touting this announcement for at least a few months, long before the BA Rays list came out so you have to throw that requirement out the window.

Colome was rated the #2 player in the NY-P League and Wilking was #3 in Appy so those two are more similar than different in that respect.

Jan 06, 2010 21:36 PM
rating: 0
 
zywica

I wouldn't call them similar. Neftali Feliz was a top ten player in BA's GCL top twenty the same year that Ballew virtually ignored him. Colome was ranked much more highly on their top ten than Rodriguez will be.

That said, you point about how long he's been talking about it is valid, and he's liked Colome all summer. I certainly wouldn't be surprised if he's the guy; I just don't think that Colome is a great comparison to Feliz unless he REALLY loves him, because he is much more highly regarded, prospect list-wise, than Feliz was elsewhere at the time.

Jan 07, 2010 16:13 PM
rating: 0
 
sockeye

Allen Craig?

Awesome!

Jan 07, 2010 00:24 AM
rating: 0
 
Cromulent

Matt Moore?

Jan 06, 2010 14:42 PM
rating: 0
 
sports2shop

I think whoever guessed Alexander Colome is on the money--lefty, sits at 94-95, touches 97 and .174 BA against. Matt Moore is excellent, but has been #4 to #6 on most lists already. I wanted to guess Kyle Lobstein of Tampa--got $1.5M signing bonus as 2nd best lefty behind Matusz, started this year 1 level higher than usual, hitting 94 on the gun, .204 BA against. However, he wasn't as dominant as AC. Speaking of AC...if Aroldis Chapman were to sign with Tampa, Texas or Toronto in the next few days, then he could be the next Neftali Feliz!

Jan 06, 2010 15:29 PM
rating: 0
 
pennybank

Thanks Kevin, just subscribed and I gotta say this site rocks.

Jan 06, 2010 15:41 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Welcome!

Jan 06, 2010 17:59 PM
 
stevemillburg

You left out one key scouting report: Just how much power does your cat have? My girlfriend has a cat that could probably bat cleanup for a couple of major-league teams. Though he'd be a cancer in the clubhouse.

Jan 06, 2010 17:02 PM
rating: 0
 
R.A.Wagman

Kevin - what are your thoughts on Steve Baron? I loved what I'd heard about him pre-draft, although was kind of surprised he went as high as he did. What are you hearing about his offensive potential? Thanks for the lists

Jan 07, 2010 06:43 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Baron was #16 for me. Catcher with power and defense, but a lot of questions as to his pure bat.

Jan 07, 2010 09:29 AM
 
BERSMR

You would think that Halman really could have used a winter ball gig to keep working on pitch recognition and contact. Would the reason a player like that wouldn't play winter ball be because none of the teams in the major winter leagues wanted to commit at bats to him or just a desire to step back for a bit before going at it again in the spring?

Jan 07, 2010 08:23 AM
rating: 0
 
billm21

Halman played some Instructional League ball in the fall. I was at the Mariners complex early in the morning on two separate occasions during the fall, and both times I saw Halman out for individual instruction with one of the coaches. So he's obviously trying to improve.

Jan 07, 2010 08:58 AM
rating: 1
 
BERSMR

that's good to hear. It certainly doesn't seem like his issues are the type that will get any better if he doesn't see a curveball for five months.

Jan 07, 2010 11:40 AM
rating: 0
 
RandyKutcherHair

Did Jharmidy DeJesus come close to making you Top 11? I haven't read much about him since his Northwest League performance as an 18 year old.

Jan 07, 2010 21:16 PM
rating: 0
 
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