CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
The Week in Quotes: Se... (10/05)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: On... (10/21)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: Po... (10/06)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Tweaking the Talent Sy... (10/05)

October 5, 2009

Playoff Prospectus

Post-Season Pens

by Christina Kahrl

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Last week, I ranked the playoff rotations, coming to the conclusion that, looking at who would be starting the post-season games as opposed to the team-wide performances, the Cardinals were easily in the best position as far their rotation was concerned, while the Yankees, Angels, and Rockies were at something of a comparative disadvantage. To repeat the exercise with the bullpens, let's look at who's done best in terms of season-long performance (through Sunday's games):


                   MLB   Relief   MLB
Team         WXRL  Rank   FRA     Rank
Yankees    15.489    1   4.18      7t
Dodgers    13.235    2   3.46      1
Red Sox    11.405    4   4.17      6
Twins       9.990    9   4.28     11
Angels      8.482   12   4.80     23
Cardinals   8.010   15   4.02      5
Tigers      7.782   17   4.63     19
Phillies    6.631   18   4.30     12
Rockies     6.374   19   4.85     24

Overall, the season-long and team-wide WXRL marks confirm a lot of what you'd expect at first glance-the Yankees, Dodgers, and Red Sox have three of the best closers in the land in Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Broxton, and Jonathan Papelbon, after all, and the Twins aren't too far behind with Joe Nathan shutting things down. The Phillies and Brad Lidge? Well, that's a Halloween-appropriate scare. However, when you get into the brass tacks of how the bullpens have performed on the basis of what they've done with the runners they've inherited and what they've allowed opposing hitters to do via Fair Run Average, and you get a slightly different picture. Lidge's regular deliveries of bad news in the ninth aside, the Cardinals get some props, and the Red Sox come down a few pegs. Maybe that Theo Epstein character knew what he was doing, adding Billy Wagner at the last instant after all.

So, to revisit the exercise we did with the rotations, why not look at the bullpens with these same metrics, but favor those who will have the biggest impact? For this, I cut teams down to their top four relievers, used combined full-season FRA results for the guys traded in-season-so that Rafael Betancourt's impact on the Rockies or George Sherrill's with the Dodgers truly shine to full effect-and weighted things to favor the closers to reflect modern sensibilities, essentially weighting closers' contributions equally to the other three. With that done, which teams have the real firemen they'll want to turn to late in the game?


           Top 4      Top 4
Team         FRA       WXRL    Top 4 Dudes
Twins       2.08     12.805    Nathan, Guerrier, Mijares, Rauch
Yankees     2.20     14.159    Rivera, Hughes, Aceves, Coke
Cardinals   2.23      7.737    Franklin, McClellan, Miller, Reyes
Red Sox     2.38     10.676    Papelbon, Okajima, Ramirez, Wagner
Dodgers     2.52     13.795    Broxton, Sherrill, Troncoso, Kuo
Rockies     3.64      7.015    Street, Betancourt, Morales, Beimel
Angels      3.77      8.292    Fuentes, Oliver, Bulger, Jepsen
Tigers      4.07      9.059    Rodney, Lyon, Miner, Seay
Phillies    6.68      2.187    Lidge, Madson, Eyre, Myers '07

A few notes, by team:

  • The Twins combo is devastatingly good, with Nathan getting quality support from both Jose Mijares and Matt Guerrier. Late-season addition Jon Rauch is something of a placeholder to square the quartet in this exercise; watch out for Jesse Crain, who has been much more effective since coming back from the DL (2.76 ERA).

  • Cardinals: Franklin's been freaky-good, yes, and with the example set by Lidge in terms of blazing a trail from horror to greatness to Human Torch all over again, people might wonder and worry. Fair enough, but performance talks, and Lidge kept it together last year-who's to say Franklin can't this time around? It seemed appropriate to rank Reyes as the Cards' fourth man ahead of Blake Hawksworth, given Tony La Russa's raising situational matchups from mere in-game tactic to full-blown life-style choice.

  • Yankees: Coke might seem a strange choice for the fourth guy, since you would figure Damaso Marte's the situational lefty of choice, but Marte's numbers are awful, while Coke's performance (4.32 FRA) makes a nice enough placeholder in trying to sort out Joe Girardi's odd set of choices past the obvious virtues of Mo (1.80 FRA) and Phil Hughes (an incredible 1.27).

  • Red Sox: The benefit of pushing Billy Wagner into the mix makes sense, given that Takashi Saito's performance has been uneven in a low-leverage role (0.172 WXRL), and Manny Delcarmen's been bad news (4.87 FRA). Let's face it, I think we're all guessing that Wagner's more likely to be getting key spots than either of those two. Why Ram-Ram ahead of Daniel Bard? Because he's been more effective over the full season, and in a more significant role, Bard's late-season trial in the late innings notwithstanding.

  • Dodgers: Sherrill's the real star here, with a 1.83 FRA to Broxton's 2.63, so the eighth inning's even better guarded than the ninth. There's talk that Ramon Troncoso might not even make the roster, but the separation between his FRA (2.79) and Ronald Belisario's (2.99, but in a much more situational righty's role in less-important situations overall) is minute enough that it wouldn't affect their Dodgers' ranking, just an observer's judgment of Joe Torre for potentially dropping a key reliever on the basis of one bad ballgame against the Cardinals.

  • Rockies: The Rox get a big boost from giving Betancourt (3.10 FRA) and Joe Beimel (3.75) their due for each man's full season of work, just mostly with other teams. They might get an even bigger boost if Jose Contreras' September spin in the pen (1.54) means that the big Cuban is going to make like El Duque and show off some late-career post-season heroics. If Huston Street's ailing, the Rockies might just be able to wing it without him.

  • Angels: This hasn't been Brian Fuentes' year, but between him, Darren Oliver, and flame-throwing Jason Bulger, the Halos have an employable if too-frequently combustible trio. This might encourage Mike Scioscia to give his starters long leashes in October, which makes sense given the team's limited depth in the pen.

  • Tigers: Fernando Rodney probably conjures up too many comparisons to Todd Jones-he may convert save opportunities, but he's generally putting as big a scare into his team's fans as he does the opposition. A mere one blown save or no, his 4.16 FRA is only worsted by the Flaming Lidge among post-season closers. Fu-Te Ni has had his moments; plug him in for Seay, and the Tigers rank ahead of the Angels with a 3.69 Fab Four FRA-but that doesn't reduce the Fernando factor.

  • Phillies: With Chan Ho Park, Scott Eyre, J.C. Romero, and Brett Myers all at less than their best beyond the pall of smoke that follows Lidge to the bump, it's hard to evaluate who's going to be in the pen and doing what. I've used Myers' performance as a reliever in '07 as a middle-relief placeholder; swap him into the closer's role and replace Eyre and Lidge with Park and Romero (dream on, Phillies phans), and you wind up with a completely adequate Fab Four FRA of 3.02-or much more like a real playoff team's performance. So much depends on Lidge either magically recovering his missing velocity or getting swapped out of the role while other people heal up fast, that you almost want to set the defending world champs to one side away from the other seven playoff teams and say, 'well... maybe.'

So, strange as this might seem, it's the Twins-if they make it-and the Cardinals who are sitting pretty with the best pens in their respective leagues. Just as the Cards boast the best quartet for starting their games, they also have the best foursome to take on the lion's share of their key late-game frames. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers have nothing to be ashamed of, the Rockies are hoping their late-season reinforcements can make the difference, the Angels and Tigers aren't in a good way, and the Phillies are a complete wild card. Think it'll be fun to watch? You betcha.

A version of this story originally appeared on ESPN Insider Insider.

Christina Kahrl is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Christina's other articles. You can contact Christina by clicking here

Related Content:  The Who,  FRA

8 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

rbrianc

Christina
It's been widely published the Angels will have Ervin Santana in the pen, and I suspect other teams will also have an extra starter or two down there for round 1. Santana will be a big impact there - any other teams getting a 'wild card'?

Oct 05, 2009 12:34 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Christina Kahrl
BP staff
(11)

Maybe he will, and maybe more likely he'll pitch long relief, since Sciosia's already publicly commented that he's "comfortable with the back end of his bullpen," i.e., those four guys I named.

Oct 05, 2009 12:54 PM
 
thenamestsam

I was thinking along these lines also, but with regards to the Yankees. Joba has been so messed up recently that I hesitate to expect anything from him. But he has been dominant in a late innings role before, and if he could somehow put it back together(let a fan dream), that bullpen could become an opponent's nightmare.

Oct 05, 2009 17:55 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Christina Kahrl
BP staff
(11)

I'm planning on re-running the numbers for both this and the rotations piece for an Unfiltered post tomorrow. One of the things I'll build in is credit for Joba, Ervin Santana, etc., to see what that tells us. My thought is that it won't provide a significantly different answer--I think the separations between the pens that are very good and those that are merely functional is pretty clear.

Oct 06, 2009 08:08 AM
 
3n2sports

Just wanted to point out that Lidge has had his velocity back (if we want to count '08's average of around 94 rather than '05's zippier 96) for about 2 months now. I get to watch a number of the Phils games via gameday and you could verify this with brooksbaseball or your own data bank. His earlier problems topping out at 92 are gone, his problems with walks, hits, and runs are not.

Oct 05, 2009 17:54 PM
rating: -1
 
mcesare

I believe Marte has been pitching better of late and Coke gives up some long balls so Marte might be the lefty of choice. It also looks like they will use Joba out of the pen, but do they trust him enough in a big spot? Franklin has not pitched so well the last few weeks while Hawksworth has been playing a more prominent role then Reyes down the stretch. Wagner has come up short in some big postseason spots in the past.

Oct 06, 2009 07:34 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Christina Kahrl
BP staff
(11)

Here again, I pointed out that I was using Coke's performance record this season as a placeholder. Hawksworth's Leverage score is a hint--as with Bard's--that they might be pitching in "more important situations," except that they aren't really that important. It'll be interesting to see if reliever usage patterns revert to pre-September roles or if teams like the Cardinals and Red Sox, who were "in" weeks ago, were using the dead time before season's end to actually audition people for more important situations.

Oct 06, 2009 08:05 AM
 
WoodyS

I think that your comment about Torre is unfair and makes me wonder if you've been watching the same Dodger bullpen that I have. Troncoso didn't have just one bad innning against the Cardinals, he's had bad inning after bad inning. I can't calculate WXRL, but his ERA after the All-Star game has been 4.85, while Belisario's has been 1.21. I love your columns, but in this one case I disagree with you.

Oct 06, 2009 08:15 AM
rating: -1
 
You must be a Premium subscriber to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!
<< Previous Article
The Week in Quotes: Se... (10/05)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: On... (10/21)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: Po... (10/06)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Tweaking the Talent Sy... (10/05)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, May 29
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of Thursday, May ...
Fantasy Rounders: San Diego's Marine Player
Premium Article Rubbing Mud: Context is King
Premium Article Daisy Cutter: How the Kipnis Got His TAv
Premium Article What You Need to Know: Another Day, Another ...
Premium Article Release Points: Where Have You Gone, Stephen...

MORE FROM OCTOBER 5, 2009
Premium Article Prospectus Hit and Run: The Perils of Relyin...
Premium Article Prospectus Today: Madness
Premium Article Checking the Numbers: Location and Perceptio...
Premium Article Tweaking the Talent System
The Week in Quotes: September 28-October 4

MORE BY CHRISTINA KAHRL
2009-10-20 - Premium Article Transaction Action: Roster Tweaks
2009-10-14 - Premium Article The Baserunning Report
2009-10-08 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: Angels versus Red Sox LD...
2009-10-05 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: Post-Season Pens
2009-10-04 - It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over
2009-10-01 - Premium Article Transaction Action: Winding Down the NL
2009-09-24 - Premium Article Fab Fours
More...

MORE PLAYOFF PROSPECTUS
2009-10-07 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: Yankees versus Twins LDS
2009-10-07 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: Phillies versus Rockies ...
2009-10-06 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: Post-Season Ballparks
2009-10-05 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: Post-Season Pens
2008-10-21 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: One Through Twenty-Five?
2008-10-11 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: Coming Unravelled
2008-10-10 - Playoff Prospectus: Red Sox versus Rays
More...