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July 22, 2009

On the Beat

Mid-Week Update

by John Perrotto

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AT&T Park is the house that Barry built. The Giants never would have been able to move into their beautiful waterfront ballpark in San Francisco's China Basin without having all-time home-run leader Barry Bonds hitting in the middle of their lineup to ensure plenty of sellout crowds that pay off a facility built without a heavy dose of public funding.

However, AT&T Park, or Pac Bell Park as it was known when it opened in 2000, wasn't exactly a house built for Barry. It is one of the more spacious parks in the major leagues. Now two seasons removed since the last time Bonds played in a major league game-remember, the embattled 45-year-old left fielder has yet to officially retire, and one can make a case that he's been blackballed after posting .276/.480/.585 slash stats with 28 home runs in 477 plate appearances in 2007-the Giants have a team they feel is much more suited to play at AT&T Park.

"It really is a pitcher's park and it always has been, though the presence [of Barry Bonds] hitting balls into McCovey Cove (beyond the right-field wall) made it seems more like a hitter's park," Giants manager Bruce Bochy said. "We finally have a team suited to our home park because our pitching is outstanding and our defense is good, too. We're doing things a little differently than the Giants have done in the past and it's working out quite well."

The Giants are scoring less and winning more as they are in the thick of a wild-card race following four straight losing seasons and five consecutive years without qualifying for the postseason. They are 50-43 and a half-game behind the Rockies in the National League Wild Card standings, though 9 games in back of the Dodgers in the NL West race. "You don't get this far into the season and play as well as we've played and be a fluke," Bochy said. "We feel like we've turned the corner this season after some rough years. We feel we're a legitimate playoff contender, and will be disappointed if we're not playing in October."

If the Giants do make it to the postseason, it assuredly will be because of a strong starting rotation led by a pair of young aces. Right-hander Matt Cain is second in the NL with a .760 expected winning percentage, and reigning Cy Young Award-winner Tim Lincecum is sixth with a .697 mark. Cain is only 24 years old; Lincecum is 25.

Randy Johnson, on the other hand, is 45, on the disabled list with a strained shoulder, and has a .483 expected winning percentage. However, Bochy credits him for helping the Giants' resurgence after the big left-hander signed with the team he grew up rooting for in Livermore, California as a free agent in the winter. "He's not only made us a strong pitching staff, but his presence and the way he prepares has been something that the rest of our pitchers have learned from," Bochy said. "His knowledge of the game and work ethic is second to none and our young guys understand that."

While closer Brian Wilson (1.099 WXRL) gets most of the mainstream publicity in the Giants' bullpen, it is left-hander Jeremy Affeldt who has solidified the relief corps after being signed as a free agent over the winter. His 2.743 WXRL is seventh in the NL, and ranks first among senior circuit lefties. Altogether, the Giants lead the major leagues with the lowest runs allowed with an average of 3.7 runs give up per game. They also rank third in Defensive Efficiency with a .705 mark. "We've got a situation where everyone is pitching well and contributing on our staff," Lincecum said. "It's a case where we're feeding off each other. Nobody wants to let the team down. Nobody wants to be that weak link. When you have that kind of pretty fierce internal competition, it's going to make everybody better."

Perhaps the Giants' hitters might want to start some internal competition of their own, as they are 27th in the majors in runs scored with 4.1 a game, which if anything overstates their effectiveness-they rank an even worse 29th in team-wide Equivalent Average. Third baseman Pablo Sandoval, the big, lovable Kung Fu Panda, is the only regular with an EqA over .268, as his .316 rates 15th in the NL. Giants general manager Brian Sabean has been trying to acquire a big bat for the pennant drive, and Athletics left fielder Matt Holliday's name keeps coming up as a possibility in a cross-bay trade.

However, Lincecum is not so sure the Giants need to add any pieces to get to the postseason. "I think we run the danger of disrupting something good here if we start changing the roster around," Lincecum said. "We've got a good enough team to make the playoffs with what we have right now. Our hitters score enough runs for us. We're getting enough offensive support. We have a pretty young team. There are about 15 or so of us who have been called up in the last two years and we've reached that point where we've been in the major leagues long enough that we're comfortable in our own skins now. We feel like our time has come. We're ready to win now. We are winning now."

That confidence is soaring two years removed from the Bonds' era. "It's a completely different culture now," Bochy said. "We've got a younger team now and the feeling in the clubhouse is a lot different. We play a different style of baseball. Barry was a great player and did great things, but we've moved on and we're showing you can do things differently and be able to win."

The Giants, though, are winning with heavy hearts after Sue Burns, the club's principal owner, died of lung cancer Sunday at 58. Burns was diagnosed with the disease on July 10, and passed away just nine days later. Later that night after Burns was diagnosed, Giants left-hander Jonathan Sanchez threw a no-hitter against the Padres; Burns was unable to attend. "It was the first game anyone remembers her missing in years," Giants president Larry Baer told the San Francisco Chronicle. "In some ways, you almost feel like she gave her permission to move on to new heights without her."

---

The Yankees are in first place in the American League East by one game over the Red Sox. However, that apparently isn't enough to satisfy owner Hal Steinbrenner. Steinbrenner made it clear earlier this week that second-year manager Joe Girardi's future would be very much in jeopardy if the Yankees fail to make the playoffs for a second straight season. The Yankees' run of 13 consecutive post-season appearances ended last year as Girardi took over for Joe Torre. "Joe knows what's expected of him," Steinbrenner said. "It's never changed. We expect to win every year. We've said that, we always say that, and our job is to field a championship-caliber team every year. That's what we strive to do."

Girardi said he does not feel any undue pressure because of Steinbrenner's comments. He was a player, coach and broadcaster with the Yankees before taking over as a manager, so he understands what the organization is about. "I know the expectations," Girardi said. "I knew when I took the job in year one, and I know what they were this year and for however long I manage here. The expectations are going to be on the next guy, too. It's never going to change."

Steinbrenner certainly makes it sound that "the next guy" could be in place at the start of the 2010 season if the Yankees don't get to the playoffs. "I think we've got a championship-caliber team," Steinbrenner said. "Everybody's got their injuries, everybody's got their ups and downs in different areas, nobody's perfect and we all know that, but I think we're doing good."

The Yankees are first in the majors in run scored with an average of 5.5 a game (but second in team EqA behind the Rays), and 10th in runs allowed with a 4.8 average. While some in the organization believe the Yankees need to make a deal for a starting pitcher with right-hander Chien-Ming Wang on the disabled list (again), GM Brian Cashman said he isn't looking to add in that department with the non-waiver trade deadline approaching at the end of the month. The Yankees called up right-hander Sergio Mitre from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre to start Tuesday night, and he beat the Orioles despite allowing four runs in 5 2/3 innings. However, Girardi worries what might happen if the Yankees lose another starter, particularly since right-handers Phil Hughes and Alfredo Aceves have been converted to relievers this season to strengthen a shaky bullpen. "If we have another injury, where do we go?" Girardi said.

---

Though he has been the target of boo birds at Kauffman Stadium in yet another frustrating Royals' season, general manager Dayton Moore told the Kansas City Star that manager Trey Hillman will back in 2010 to fulfill the third and final year of his contract. At the outset of his tenure, Hillman was considered an innovative hire, as he had spent the previous five seasons managing in Japan. However, the Royals are 37-56 this season and in fourth place in the AL Central, 13 games behind the Tigers. In 2008, Hillman's rookie season, the Royals were 75-87.

However, Hillman believes the Royals are making progress under his leadership and was grateful to hear he still has Moore's endorsement. "For our general manager to say that, it certainly gives you a boost of confidence, no doubt, and I'm appreciative of that," Hillman said.

Hillman said he understands the heat he takes from the fans, particularly since the franchise has not been to the postseason since 1985 and has finished under .500 in 13 of the last 14 seasons. "I'm for whatever this organization wants to do," Hillman said. "I want to be here. I want to continue to grind through this, to go through the hard times and the hard knocks, the second-guessing of strategical moves, the protection of (closer Joakim) Soria and making sure we don't run him back into another injury. I've got to stick with my guns, stick with my convictions of what I've learned and what I know is best for the individual guys over the long haul for this organization, whether I am here or whether I'm not here, to do what's right. I'll continue to do that to the best of my ability."

---

The Rays made their surprising run to the AL pennant last season without making any major in-season acquisitions. In third place in the AL East, 4 games behind the Yankees, the Rays again figure to stick mainly with what they already have this year in an attempt to get back to the postseason. "We've had lots of creative thoughts and conversations," executive vice president Andrew Friedman told the St. Petersburg Times' Marc Topkin. "Whether that yields anything remains to be seen. Based on how difficult it is to make deals in general, it's safer to bet on no than yes."

If the Rays do add any players, it will like be complementary types, such as a middle reliever or utility man. "We have supreme confidence in the 25 guys we have and feel like we are well-poised for a successful second half," Friedman said. "That being said, it's not our nature to be content. We're not in the business of doing something just for the sake of doing it. But we've had a lot of different conversations, and will continue to do so until the deadline."

---

Scouts' views of various major league players

  • Mariners closer David Aardsma: "I've been waiting for the other shoe to drop all year, but I'm starting to think it won't. He's figured a few things out about pitching, and his confidence is obviously at an all-time high."
  • Giants first baseman/outfielder John Bowker: "I'm not very convinced he is the answer, but the Giants need some pop in their lineup badly, and he's the closest thing they have to a power-hitting prospect."
  • Rays designated hitter Pat Burrell: "The Rays are finding out what the Phillies already knew-he is on the downhill side of his career and sliding rapidly."
  • Brewers third baseman Bill Hall: "They are starting to work him into the outfield mix, and have finally figured out what he really is, a good bench guy, albeit an overpaid good bench guy."
  • Orioles first baseman Aubrey Huff: "I've got to believe some contender is going to pick him up for the stretch run. He can really hit. He can't do much else, but he hits enough to make a difference."
  • Nationals outfielder Austin Kearns: "He has completely faded into oblivion, and hardly ever gets off the bench for the worst team in baseball. It's hard to believe so many people thought he was going to be a star when he came up with the Reds. I really how much career he has left."
  • Indians left-hander Aaron Laffey: "I just don't see him as anything more than a number-five starter. The Indians have a lot of guys like him who should really be long relievers or at Double-A."
  • Rockies left-handed reliever Franklin Morales: "The Rockies are looking to trade for a veteran lefty for the late innings, but they just put this kid into the role. He's got the stuff for it, and he's ready to do more than pitch middle relief."
  • Tigers designated hitter Marcus Thames: "The Tigers need to just leave him in the lineup the rest of the way. He's given them some pop and they can't keep tinkering with their lineup at this point of the season. They need to play their most productive guys, and Thames is one of them."
  • Cubs right-hander Randy Wells: "He really has been a bright spot for the Cubs. He doesn't dazzle you with his stuff, but he attacks hitters and isn't scared to throw strikes."

---

Three series to watch this weekend, with probable pitching matchups (all times Eastern):

Twins at Angels, Thursday-Sunday (July 23-26)
Scott Baker vs. Jered Weaver, 10:05 p.m.; Francisco Liriano vs. John Lackey, 10:05 p.m.; Nick Blackburn vs. Sean O'Sullivan, 4:10 p.m. (Fox); Anthony Swarzak vs. Ervin Santana, 3:35 p.m.

Cardinals at Phillies, Friday-Sunday (July 24-26)
Joel Pineiro vs. J.A. Happ, 7:05 p.m.; Kyle Lohse vs. Rodrigo Lopez, 4:05 p.m. (Fox); Todd Wellemeyer vs. Joe Blanton, 1:35 p.m. (TBS)

Giants at Rockies, Friday-Sunday (July 24-26)
Matt Cain vs. Jason Marquis, 9:10 p.m.; Jonathan Sanchez vs. Jason Hammel, 8:10 p.m. (MLB Network); Ryan Sadowski vs. Jorge De La Rosa, 3:10 p.m.

John Perrotto is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see John's other articles. You can contact John by clicking here

21 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

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amazin_mess

Love the scout's views...one suggestion - David Wright. His lack of power is enigmatic.

Jul 22, 2009 09:27 AM
rating: 0
 
Evan
(47)

The blackballing of Barry Bonds makes me angry.

Jul 22, 2009 09:49 AM
rating: 5
 
Hoff

But is it a blackballing/listing? Can a team from a legitimate revenue perspective not want bonds on the team? Is that legal under the current agreement?

Jul 22, 2009 10:24 AM
rating: 1
 
harderj

I'm a Barry fan myself, but with the trial hanging over his head, plus his likely salary demands, plus the perception that he is a "prima donna" in the clubhouse and "difficult" with fans and the media, plus his diminished defensive and baserunning skills and reluctance to move to first base, plus his fan base (such as it is) being fairly Bay Area-centric (and maybe not even Oakland) all probably makes it more trouble than it's worth for a team to take him on.

Still, I'd love to see what he could do down the stretch as the five-days-a-week DH for, say, the Yankees in their lefty homer h(e)aven...

Heck, I'd even like to see Mike Veeck contact him about playing for one of his minor league teams.

Jul 23, 2009 08:12 AM
rating: 0
 
Jason Snell

Pablo Sandoval is really an amazing story. He wasn't even in the majors a year ago. I can't remember the Giants bringing up a young hitter from the minors with this much potential since... um... Will Clark?

Jul 22, 2009 09:58 AM
rating: 4
 
harderj

Matt Williams?

Jul 22, 2009 13:06 PM
rating: 1
 
parkerap

Published too soon. Awaiting comments on the Adam LaRoche deal...

Jul 22, 2009 11:23 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Christina Kahrl
BP staff
(11)

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9269

Jul 22, 2009 16:13 PM
 
surlycooper

Nelson Liriano, eh?

Jul 22, 2009 11:24 AM
rating: 0
 
Nelbowski

He's the hottest pickup in Japanese antiquity keeper leagues this week.

Jul 22, 2009 12:28 PM
rating: 0
 
deafears

He yells "HAW! HAW!" after every strike-out.

Jul 22, 2009 15:43 PM
rating: 0
 
Christopher Miller
(88)

so the phillies knew he was on the downside, eh? Something about 2008 looked different than 2006? He may well be on the downside, but I can't imagine the Phillies said "hey, Pat Burrell's on the downside, let's fix that with...37 year old Raul Ibanez!"

Jul 22, 2009 11:57 AM
rating: 1
 
Hoff

well, they did. I mean, it doesn't look logical thinking, but they might be vindicated.

Jul 22, 2009 16:28 PM
rating: 0
 
marcello

AT&T Park hasn't been a pitchers park since 2002-2003. In fact, it's playing more as a hitters park now.

Jul 22, 2009 12:03 PM
rating: -1
 
harderj

I read this and thought "no way," but indeed, so far in 2009 and for 2008, AT&T has played as a slight hitters' park:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor?season=2009

And while that was true in 2004 as well, it was actually a slight (but not extreme) pitchers' park in 2005, 2006, and 2007.

FWIW, I had no idea park factors bounced around so much from year to year...makes me question the method a bit.

Jul 22, 2009 13:19 PM
rating: 1
 
marcello

Well, walls can be moved around to affect them, although I don't know how frequently that happens. Also, I would suggest using the Park Factors at BBRef instead of ESPN, they are much better.

Jul 22, 2009 13:50 PM
rating: 0
 
harderj

Thanks for the reference, and sorry to dispute what you said in your post...I knew I had seen some list in some fantasy magazine I read this year, but rather than digging that out I just googled, and ESPN's list showed up on top.

I don't think PacBell/AT&T's dimensions have changed since it opened, but I could be wrong there as well...

Jul 22, 2009 14:30 PM
rating: 0
 
Patrick M

Single-season park factors bounce around a lot because you are talking about small sample sizes. The schedule only calls for 81 games in each park, and that number is small enough that flukey weather, advantageous pitching match-ups, or just plain dumb luck can have an impact on the result.

Spreading park factors over 2-3 seasons probably makes more sense, but then it's problematic for stadiums that had some sort of significant change over that interval.

Jul 22, 2009 17:54 PM
rating: 1
 
harderj

Further thoughts on PacBell/AT&T park factor. Thanks again to marcello for the bbref ref, and for opening my eyes to my misbelief that it's a strong pitcher's park.

It is clear that though over the life of the park it's favored pitchers (ESPN average from 2001-2008 of .961; BBRef average from 2000-2008 of 97.8 pitcher factor and 98.2 batter factor), the toughest four years for batters were 2000-2003.

Since then, it's 1.011 using ESPN's method and 100.8 using BBRef's, with 2009 so far being slightly higher still.

Funny, then, that Bochy and the Giants are convinced that pitching and defense are how to build the team...especially with Petco and Dodger Stadium balanced against Colorado and Arizona in their own division, so being kind of a wash.

For what it's worth, the correlation between ESPN's and BBRef's numbers for SF from 2001-2008 are fairly strong at .83 or .85 (depending on whether it's BBRef's pitcher park factor or hitter park factor).

Jul 23, 2009 08:59 AM
rating: 0
 
eighteen

I don't understand why it should seem odd that Bochy and the Giants' front office braincamp make decisions based on incomplete and/or inaccurate information.

Jul 23, 2009 11:08 AM
rating: 0
 
anderson721

Hey, I could have thought up the Austin Kearns comment. Come to think of it, so could my 9 year old. Maybe even my dog.
Could we skip the no-brainers next week?

Jul 23, 2009 12:14 PM
rating: -2
 
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