CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Under The Knife: Abuse (05/18)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Future Shock Blog: May... (05/18)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Future Shock Blog: May... (05/20)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Power Ou... (05/19)

May 19, 2009

Future Shock Blog

May 19

by Kevin Goldstein

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde

Jose Contreras, RHP, White Sox (Triple-A Charlotte)
Monday's stats: 9 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 K
Two weeks ago, could you have ever imagined Contreras throwing a one-hitter at any level? Yes, there he was Monday night, carrying a no-hitter into the eight and needing just 100 pitches to cruise to the shutout victory. True progress, or another indication of how massive the difference is between even the highest level of the minors and the big leagues?

As if Toronto needs more good news

J.P. Arencibia, C, Blue Jays (Triple-A Las Vegas)
Monday's stats: 3-for-3, 2B, 2 HR (7), 2 R, 4 RBI, 2 BB
Like Baltimore uber-prospect Matt Wieters, Arenciba was a first-round pick in 2007, and like Wieters he hit 27 home runs in his full-season debut while splitting time between High- and Double-A. A free-swinging approach got him dinged by some, and the fear that he would be exposed by experienced Triple-A breaking ball specialists. That seemed to be a legitimate concern when he hit .224 without a home run in April, but May has been a different story, as Arencibia is slugging .697 with seven bombs in 66 at-bats, while also learning the value of a little patience with seven walks.

Finally warming up?

Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates (High-A Lynchburg)
Monday's stats: 3-for-5, 2B, HR (8), 3 R, 2 RBI, BB
The second overall pick in last year's draft, Alvarez has been one of the biggest disappointments is the prospect world this year, but he's finally showing signs of life, with his first three-hit game since Opening Day, and a 7-for-16 mark in his last four that includes two home runs and seven RBIs. He's still hitting just .229 on the season, but with plenty of power and patience, there's little need to temper one's enthusiasm.

And the No. 2 pick the year before Pedro . . .

Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals (High-A Wilmington)
Monday's stats: 2-for-4, HR (7), R, 3 RBI
Moustakas was one of the Midwest League's worst performers in April of last year, but by the time the second half came around, he was the most dangerous hitters on the circuit. This year, he's taking far less time to heat up, as Monday's performance extended his hitting streak to nine games, including home runs in three of his last four contests.

California, here he comes?

Mat Latos, RHP, Padres (Low-A Fort Wayne)
Monday's stats:6.2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 8 K
San Diego's top prospect missed the first three weeks of the season recovering from an ankle injury, but the decision to ease him into the year by sending him back to the Midwest League is proving to be far too conservative a move. Monday's performance was his fourth dominant outing in four tries, as the six-foot-six righty has allowed just one run over 25 innings, while giving up only 10 hits, walking three and striking out 27. He should be heading for High-A Lake Elsinore soon.

He keeps hitting, so he keeps showing up here

Josh Vitters, 3B, Cubs (Low-A Peoria)
Monday's stats: 3-for-5, 2B, HR (6), 3 RBIs
It's like the best kind of broken record you can imagine if you are Vitters. On Saturday, he had three hits, including a home run; Sunday he had three hits, including a home run, and yesterday? You guessed it. Three hits, including a home run. Our data guru, William Burke crunched the number and found that the last time a big leaguer had three straight games with at least three hits and a home run was Rays third baseman Evan Longoria last June. However, it's more rare than you think, as only 14 occurrences of such a streak have occurred in the majors over the last 40 years.


Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Kevin's other articles. You can contact Kevin by clicking here

10 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

ramtax

Don't the PCL park factors mean we should be tempering the enthusiasm about Arencibia a bit? Maybe more than a bit?

May 19, 2009 11:05 AM
rating: 0
 
buffum
(458)

Even with a 1-hitter, the 5:3 K:BB for Contreras suggests something a bit short of "dominating." Which is kind of where I want my rehabbing major-league rotation guy to end up.

May 19, 2009 11:35 AM
rating: 0
 
cardsfan89

No mention of Brett Wallace being called up to AAA? Without looking I'd say he's the first position player in the draft to be playing at that level.

Also thoughts on Casey Mulligan aka Motte 2.0? His dominating performances should merit him some national cred.

May 19, 2009 12:37 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Don't forget Conor Gillaspie was in the big leagues last year.

May 19, 2009 12:51 PM
 
Dan

Does Gillaspie's 5 AB's in 2008 or Ross Detwiler's 1 IP in 2007 have any affect on either players arbitration clock?

May 19, 2009 14:15 PM
rating: 0
 
cardsfan89

Good call. Why you're the professional.

This has to be being done in anticipation of him starting for the big league club.

May 19, 2009 15:18 PM
rating: 0
 
ktr

They count as that fraction of a season towards their clocks. Number of days they were up/ number of days in season= % of season applied towards their arb clocks. Short answer: barely any affect.

May 19, 2009 14:47 PM
rating: 0
 
mymrbig

Just to clarify ktr's insight, "number of days they were up" = # of days on 25-man roster. Actual playing time when on the 25-man roster has zero influence on arbitration clocks, just # of days on the 25-man roster. So if a guy is up all of September but only gets a couple at-bats or innings, he might still get 30 days or so of service time.

Also, if a guy gets injured while on the 25-man roster, he goes on the major league DL and accumulates service time while on the DL. This occasionally results in disputes between the club and player if the player claims he was injured while on the major league roster and the club claims he was injured after being demoted to the minors.

May 20, 2009 10:54 AM
rating: 0
 
mymrbig

Jeeze, just to clarify my clarification, 25-man roster = major league roster in September, when rosters can expand beyond 25 players!

May 20, 2009 10:56 AM
rating: 0
 
Dan

Thanks Guys. I had always wondered about that. Makes me think the phrase "starting the arbitration clock" is a bit misleading. Not that you can't stop a clock....

May 20, 2009 11:14 AM
rating: 0
 
You must be a Premium subscriber to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!
<< Previous Article
Premium Article Under The Knife: Abuse (05/18)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Future Shock Blog: May... (05/18)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Future Shock Blog: May... (05/20)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Power Ou... (05/19)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article Daisy Cutter: How the Kipnis Got His TAv
Premium Article What You Need to Know: Another Day, Another ...
Premium Article Release Points: Where Have You Gone, Stephen...
BP Wrigleyville
West Coast By Us: Hats, Man
Premium Article The Call-Up: Michael Feliz
Premium Article The Call-Up: Chi Chi Gonzalez

MORE FROM MAY 19, 2009
Prospectus Hit and Run: Rotation Freak Shows
Premium Article Prospectus Today: Texas Leather
Premium Article Under The Knife: Breaking Down
Premium Article Prospectus Q&A: Toby Harrah, Part One
Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Power Outages

MORE BY KEVIN GOLDSTEIN
2009-05-21 - Premium Article Future Shock: Way Too Early Mock Draft
2009-05-21 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: May 21
2009-05-20 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: May 20
2009-05-19 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: May 19
2009-05-18 - Premium Article Future Shock: Monday Ten Pack
2009-05-18 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: May 18
2009-05-15 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: May 15, 2009
More...

MORE FUTURE SHOCK BLOG
2009-05-22 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: May 22
2009-05-21 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: May 21
2009-05-20 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: May 20
2009-05-19 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: May 19
2009-05-18 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: May 18
2009-05-15 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: May 15, 2009
2009-05-14 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: May 14, 2009
More...