CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Premium Article 6-4-3: I Will Sell Thi... (03/04)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: T... (03/02)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: C... (03/05)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Champions of the World (03/04)

March 4, 2009

Team Health Reports

Arizona Diamondbacks

by Will Carroll

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Team Audit | DT Cards | PECOTA Cards | Depth Chart

Head Trainer: Ken Crenshaw
Player Days Lost: 533
Total Dollars Lost: $11.3 million
Injury Cost: $17.6 million

Trend: Neutral. Believe it or not, 533 days is the worst showing that the Diamondbacks have put up since bringing Ken Crenshaw over from the Rays. Even so, they were only one less major injury away from being in the running for Crenshaw's second Dick Martin Award. Going from 400 days to 533 days is hardly a negative; the Diamondbacks effectively hid a few injuries at the Triple-A level with Micah Owings and Max Scherzer, and I'd rather credit that sort of creative handling than penalize it. Arizona is in contention every year in the NL West, due in large part to their having done a great job of keeping their talent on the field.

The Shape of the Season:

graph

The Big Question: Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic asks, "If Eric Byrnes' hamstring still isn't 100 percent, that leaves them with little outfield depth. Can a hamstrung Byrnes be better than the likes of Alex Romero, or do D'backs fans have to hope Gerardo Parra is ready soon?"

To answer that, I need you to order some hot wings. Ever bite off a piece of that spicy goodness, only to have that one little bit hang on to the bone, forcing you to tug just a little before it finally gives way? That's basically what happened to Byrnes, minus the cayenne. I know that might seem too graphic, but it tells you what he's facing. There have been some surgical successes, but Byrnes opted to stay away from the knife. Given his early issues, it's likely that he'll need extra rest to avoid overtaxing the muscles. The difference between Byrnes and Romero, or even Parra, is still great enough that 80 percent of Byrnes 80 percent of the time is the preferable option. It's up to Ken Crenshaw to keep him out there.

Fantasy Tip: Justin Upton was a disappointment last season, but he was also just 20 years old; at that age, brother B.J. was still fighting with his glove and with the shuttle from Durham to Tampa Bay. He's still got downside, but few players have such significant upside. With the team turning over its closer role again, Jon Rauch has the first shot, but many think that Max Scherzer will end up with the job. He's a good value play at either the back end of the rotation or as the closer in waiting, and considering Rauch's health, he may not be waiting long. Finally, while you don't get fired for buying IBM, pitchers are far more of a risk. Just because Brandon Webb or any other ace has done it for a number of years doesn't mean that all of the risk is gone.

1B Chad Tracy: Red light Tracy's slow comeback after microfracture surgery seemed normal at the time, but the operation has become so routine that it now appears as if Tracy's recovery might have taken longer than expected. I gave him a half measure there, but he's still solidly in the red. We don't know much about how long this will hold up.

OF Eric Byrnes: Red light See today's Big Question.

SP Max Scherzer: Red light Scherzer's mechanics have been an issue since he was drafted, especially since they appear to the naked eye to be more violent than they really are. It's his "head snap" that throws people off, but like those of Hideki Okajima or Fernando Valenzuela it's more of a noticeable and unusual focal point than a real flaw. The real question involves his stamina, which is pointing him toward the pen.

RP Jon Rauch: Red light Rauch came back from a torn labrum a couple of years ago and surprised everyone by doing well in the closing role. He wasn't so good after coming to Arizona in a trade, though he's cryptically said that the problems were off the field, not in his arm. If he's healthy and effective, he's likely to have another season similar to last year's, but for a much better team.

C Chris Snyder: Yellow light He's a catcher, which is really the only reason he's in the yellow band. Happily, Snyder has a solid backup in Miguel Montero, and has held onto his job while being pushed.

RF Justin Upton: Yellow light Upton's home/road splits were as much of a problem as the severe oblique strain that wiped out two months of his season. It should surprise no one that one of Upton's top comps is his brother, since their stat lines and their talent level are very similar.

SP Doug Davis: Yellow light There was a rumor going around at the time Davis was traded to Arizona that he had been heard in a Wisconsin bar telling Brewers fans that he was glad they'd dealt him since his arm was done. If this is true, then Davis isn't very self-aware. He's been a very consistent pitcher since he was given a second chance by Gord Ash. While his age puts him well into the yellow, the fact is that the system is hitting him pretty hard for the cancer he had to overcome, and I'm proud to say that it's rare enough that I didn't build it in.

CL Chad Qualls: Yellow light Qualls is that rarest of birds-the dependable relief pitcher who stays at this level for more than three years. It's in large part due to so many relievers always being at maximum effort. Qualls isn't one of them, so this is likely a high yellow.

2B Felipe Lopez: Green light One of the great mysteries of last season is why Lopez stopped running. I have some ideas, and think that he'll get an easy 25 steals, and more if he sticks in the leadoff slot.

SS Stephen Drew Green light

3B Mark Reynolds: Green light Reynolds stays green since he's still listed at third base. If they do ever decide on the option of moving him to second base, it would move him just inside the red. Yes, it's that big of an adjustment.

LF Conor Jackson Green light

CF Chris Young Green light

SP Brandon Webb Green light

SP Dan Haren: Green light Haren finished just on the green side of the green/yellow line. His having worn down at the end of the past two seasons is the big knock against him.

SP Jon Garland Green light

Related Content:  Jon Rauch

10 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Premium Article 6-4-3: I Will Sell Thi... (03/04)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: T... (03/02)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: C... (03/05)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Champions of the World (03/04)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article Baseball Therapy: Starving Young Royals, Bat...
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Wednesday, Septembe...
Eyewitness Accounts: September 17, 2014
Premium Article What You Need to Know: September 17, 2014
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Streaming Strikeouts
The Lineup Card: Eight Memorable Final-Week ...
Premium Article Skewed Left: How to Change Things When Chang...

MORE FROM MARCH 4, 2009
Premium Article On the Beat: The Braves' New World
Premium Article Champions of the World
Premium Article 6-4-3: I Will Sell This House!

MORE BY WILL CARROLL
2009-03-09 - Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: Florida Marlins
2009-03-06 - Premium Article Under The Knife: Spring Forward, Falling Bac...
2009-03-05 - Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: Cleveland Indians
2009-03-04 - Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: Arizona Diamondbacks
2009-02-27 - Premium Article Under The Knife: On the Mend?
2009-02-26 - Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: Kansas City Royals
2009-02-24 - Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: Colorado Rockies
More...

MORE TEAM HEALTH REPORTS
2009-03-09 - Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: Florida Marlins
2009-03-08 - Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: Los Angeles Dodgers
2009-03-05 - Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: Cleveland Indians
2009-03-04 - Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: Arizona Diamondbacks
2009-03-02 - Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: Texas Rangers
2009-02-26 - Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: Kansas City Royals
2009-02-25 - Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: Oakland Athletics
More...