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June 10, 2014

The 2013 Redraft

How Much Has Changed?

by Ron Shah and Baseball Prospectus


It's been a year since the 2013 draft, and we've gotten a good look at how the last crop of highly touted amateurs has has performed in the pros. To see how much perceptions of those players have changed, we decided to do the draft over again, assigning 27 picks to BP authors and re-drafting from scratch, selecting only from the pool of players who were picked last year. Here's how the first-round re-draft shook out.

1:1 Houston Astros
Actual Selection: Mark Appel
Re-Draft Selection: Kris Bryant (2013 no. 2 pick)
Reason:
What has Bryant done in pro ball? Rake. In his first full season, Bryant has a slash line of .346/.453/.682 with 19 HR, plenty of strikeouts but also plenty of walks. His stock has risen because he's proven he's simply the best player from the draft by hitting for average, power and even stolen some bases. As long as Bryant continues to rake I'll continue my love for him, as will everyone else. – CJ Wittmann
Analysis: Bryant moves up one spot from where he was actually taken, claiming the coveted no. 1 overall selection. The 22-year-old is terrorizing minor-league pitching and looks to be a cut above the rest of his peers from the 2013 draft class.

1:2 Chicago Cubs
Actual Selection: Kris Bryant
Re-Draft Selection: Clint Frazier (2013 no. 5 pick)
Reason:
Frazier hasn't produced like Bryant but the exceptional upside pushes Frazier to the top for me. I was considering Gray, Harvey and Manaea here as well but I've become more leery of pitchers and felt more comfortable taking the position player with star upside. – Mauricio Rubio
Stock Analysis: Arguably the best high school bat of the draft class, Frazier becomes the second positional player to be selected in as many picks. Frazier jumps the trio of pitchers who had originally been selected ahead of him, moving up to no. 2 overall.

1:3 Colorado Rockies
Actual Selection: Jonathan Gray
Re-Draft Selection: Hunter Harvey (2013 no. 22 pick)
Reason:
Harvey is further away from the college arms I passed up, but the 19-year-old is showing the performance and stuff to warrant such a high selection. Thanks to his lethal fastball-curveball combination and developing changeup, Harvey possesses the highest ceiling of any arm in the ’13 draft. – Ron Shah
Stock Analysis: In a draft class that many believed lacked high-ceiling prep arms, Harvey became just the second high school pitcher to be selected in the first round after he came off the board at no. 22 overall to the Baltimore Orioles. But now the righty becomes the first player to make a big jump forward because of how he’s exploded onto the professional scene.

1:4 Minnesota Twins
Actual Selection: Kohl Stewart
Re-Draft Selection: Jon Gray (2013 no. 3 pick)
Reason:
Gray probably should have gone no. 1 or no. 2 last year due to his enormous fastball and huge upside. This year, reports have had his fastball a little down in mph and his secondary offerings are a little less crisp but I still believe in the upside. Thought about Manaea here, too. – Chris Rodriguez
Stock Analysis: Considered to be one of the three players in the top tier, Gray falls outside of that class this time around, falling to the no. 4 overall selection.

1:5 Cleveland Indians
Actual Selection: Clint Frazier
Re-Draft Selection: Sean Manaea (2013 no. 34 pick)
Reason:
With his surgery behind him, he's putting all questions behind him, too; reports have been giddy, missing bats, has the body, and if there's really something called a ghostball I'd rather it be working for me than against me. – Sam Miller
Stock Analysis: A healthy Manaea entered “draft season” firmly in the mix, and perhaps the favorite, to be the no. 1 overall pick, but injuries would derail his season and draft stock. Now that Manaea is healthy and back to form, the southpaw easily enters the top-five fray.

1:6 Miami Marlins
Actual Selection: Colin Moran
Re-Draft Selection: Kohl Stewart (2013 no. 4 pick)
Reason:
Nothing substantial has changed with Stewart, and frankly, I'm pleased he's here at no. 6. His front-of-the-rotation potential has not dimmed at all given his performance in the Midwest League as a teenager, and as he settles in with more game experience, he could begin to move through the minor leagues more quickly. – Mark Anderson
Stock Analysis: Stewart slides just a few spot from his actual selection thanks to Harvey’s talent leap and Manaea’s return to form. But as mentioned, nothing has really changed with the 19-year-old, who is just plugging away in his first full season.

1:7 Boston Red Sox
Actual Selection: Trey Ball
Re-Draft Selection: J.P. Crawford (2013 no. 16 pick)
Reason:
Shortstops with the skills to stay there; barely-over-18-year-olds with the plate discipline to post close to even strikeout-to-walk ratios in full-season leagues; sons of professional football players who pursue baseball instead. These are a few of my favorite things. – Ben Lindbergh
Stock Analysis: Crawford takes a significant step into the top 10 after being taken No. 16 overall by the Phillies. While a few players ahead of Crawford have either had very poor showings or didn’t sign, it is clear Crawford’s tools and feel for the game had originally been undersold.

1:8 Kansas City Royals
Actual Selection: Hunter Dozier
Re-Draft Selection: Braden Shipley (2013 no. 15 pick)
Reason:
Widely considered a steal when he slipped outside the top 10, Shipley hasn’t done much to lower his stock during his first year as a pro despite a brief injury hiccup this spring. The righty is a converted shortstop, which is good news for two reasons: He’s a plus athlete with a clean delivery, and there’s not much mileage on his arm. Shipley profiles as a mid-rotation starter. After a quick promotion to High-A Visalia, he’s as good a bet to reach at least that projection as first-overall pick Mark Appel. – Daniel Rathman
Stock Analysis: In reality, Shipley went the pick immediately before Crawford, going off the board at no. 15 overall to the Diamondbacks. This time their orders are reversed, but both are making jumps into the top 10. Shipley hasn’t been great in his pro career, but that is because he isn’t a fast-moving college arm like some of his peers are. Perhaps more importantly, the 22-year-old hasn’t been underwhelming at the lower levels, which is more than you can say about some of those originally selected ahead of him.

1:9 Pittsburgh Pirates
Actual Selection: Austin Meadows
Re-Draft Selection: Reese McGuire (2013 no. 14 pick)
Reason:
Since his debut, McGuire has impressed with his defense behind the plate, his bat-to-ball skills, and his leadership. He has an advanced skill set as a receiver and possesses a nice level swing from the left side of the plate. His defensive profile alone warrants top 10 consideration and when you add in his constant improving offensive game, this pick is a no-brainer. – Chris King
Stock Analysis: Teams can get apprehensive when it comes to investing heavily in high school catchers, just like prep arms, largely because of their low success rates. But the Pirates might have found the treasure chest with McGuire, as he looks the part behind the dish and has a stick to go with it. The Pirates’ no. 14 overall selection is trading places with fellow organizational teammate Austin Meadows, whom Pittsburgh originally selected with their first draft choice at No. 9 overall.

1:10 Toronto Blue Jays
Actual Selection: Phillip Bickford
Re-Draft Selection: Mark Appel (2013 no. 1 pick)
Reason:
Off to a slow start professionally but a relatively easy pick at 11 in the redo. Should contribute to a MLB rotation, still has upside (PS I wanted Reese McGuire *shakes fist*) – Harry Pavlidis
Stock Analysis: Appel has clearly fallen out of favor in this exercise, as he slides all the way down to the bottom of the top 10. The Stanford product had been praised for his major-league-ready polish, but Appel’s pro career has him searching for answers. The 22-year-old has posted an earned run average of nearly 12, as he’s had to deal with injuries, velocity concerns, and everything in between at the lower levels.

1:11 New York Mets
Actual Selection: Dominic Smith
Re-Draft Selection: Hunter Dozier (2013 no. 8 pick)
Reason:
Tabbed as a bit of a reach at no. 8, I'll happily take him three spots lower after about 550 PA of solid work under his belt. Even if he doesn't stick at SS, I think he's worth the price here at 11. – Paul Sporer
Stock Analysis: Despite being considered a reach at the time of his selection, Dozier falls just a few spots down in the re-draft. A contributing factor is the performance, as the future Kansas City Royal with an ever-growing fan base continues to turn heads. It took 10 picks, but we finally have our second college bat off the board.

1:12 Seattle Mariners
Actual Selection: D.J. Peterson
Re-Draft Selection: Tim Anderson (2013 no. 17 pick)
Reason:
Anderson is an electric, middle of the diamond talent, raw in most aspects of the game but the ceiling is huge and the makeup could get him there.– Jason Parks
Stock Analysis: Anderson jumps a handful of picks from his original selection at no. 17. His unparalleled background had teams cautious; a two-sport junior college athlete who came out of nowhere. Because of his age, he brought more risk than a prep player, and less polish than someone in the collegiate ranks. But with Anderson’s impact tools playing at the minor-league ranks, some teams higher in the draft are kicking themselves for letting him slip.

1:13 San Diego Padres
Actual Selection: Hunter Renfroe
Re-Draft Selection: Alex Gonzalez (2013 no. 23 pick)
Reason:
While I may have been hoping that Tim Anderson fell here, Chi Chi is more than just a nice consolation prize. There's nothing super flashy about his game, but a starter who will move quickly and has three pitches that project as plus has a ton of value. I like his chances to be a no. 3 starter at the major-league level for a long time. – Bret Sayre
Stock Analysis: Gonzalez makes a major jump up the board, going 10 picks before the Rangers originally took him with the no. 23 overall selection. The 22-year-old righty is doing well in terms of performance, posting a 2.62 ERA across 11 starts in High-A. The righty just earned a promotion to Double-A, so we will now get a better feel of what he is and isn’t.

1:14 Pittsburgh Pirates
Actual Selection: Reese McGuire
Re-Draft Selection: Austin Meadows (2013 no. 9 pick)
Reason:
I'm not the world's biggest Meadows fan, but in my relatively uneducated opinion, he's clearly the best talent left. Meadows has missed the entire 2014 season with a hamstring injury so far, but that doesn't impact his long-term potential as a legit role-6 player in the least. I was hoping Anderson would fall to me, but I knew he wouldn't get past Parks and Sayre. – Ben Carsley
Stock Analysis: Meadows had been in the conversation for top prep bat in the class, but ultimately lost out after Clint Frazier went off the board ahead of him. The same is true in this exercise, except that Meadows has been passed by a few others, including organizational teammate Reese McGuire.

1:15 Arizona Diamondbacks
Actual Selection: Braden Shipley
Re-Draft Selection: Marco Gonzales (2013 no. 19 pick)
Reason:
I've been slow to come around on Gonzalez after not liking him a ton as an amateur, but having seen him a couple of more times since the draft, I'm a big believer in the potential. With a changeup that is arguably one of the best in the minor leagues, Gonzalez can confound hitters and work through lineups multiple times. He's going to move quickly through the system and he could be a no. 3 or no. 4 starter. – Mark Anderson
Stock Analysis: The Cardinals love to target college arms with command of a fastball-changeup combination, so no one should have been surprised when the Red Birds popped Marco Gonzales out of Gonzaga University. Gonzales entered a system with a knack for developing guys with the aforementioned qualities, so look at him now: going a few spots higher than he did in reality while humming up through the minor-league ranks. Some call this The Cardinal Way.

1:16 Philadelphia Phillies
Actual Selection: J.P. Crawford
Re-Draft Selection: Trey Ball (2013 no. 7 pick)
Reason:
To say Ball has left a lot to be desired since making his pro debut last season would be an understatement. Control and command haven't been there and when he's around the plate he's getting hit hard. There is still a good deal of upside in his arm and arsenal, so for me, it's worth the risk with the 17th pick. – Chris King
Stock Analysis: At the time of his selection, Ball had been a two-way player with legitimate talent on the mound and at the plate. It could have gone either way, but the Red Sox decided Ball’s future would be as a left-handed pitcher after selecting him with the no. 7 overall pick. He falls nearly 10 picks in this exercise, as the soon to be 20-year-old has gotten off to a rough start in pro ball.

1:17 Chicago White Sox
Actual Selection: Tim Anderson
Re-Draft Selection: Ryan McMahon (2013 no. 42 pick)
Reason:
After lighting up the Pioneer League, he was considered by many to be one of the breakout candidates this season. He's followed through with 10 bombs and a near .900 OPS while transitioning to full-season ball as a 19-year-old kid. Looks like he could be a stud. – J.P. Breen
Stock Analysis: The Rockies took McMahon out of Mater Dei High School in the second round with the no. 42 overall draft selection. But in this exercise, McMahon becomes a mid-first round talent, jumping ahead 25 picks—the biggest leap of any position player.

1:18 Los Angeles Dodgers
Actual Selection: Chris Anderson
Re-Draft Selection: Hunter Renfroe (2013 no. 13 pick)
Reason:
The right fielder dropped six spots from where he was originally taken in 2013, making him too enticing to pass up with this selection. The raw tools profile remains loud, and while the utility of the hit tool is still in question with 75 whiffs through 63 California League games, Renfroe is one of the only players left on the board who could eventually settle in the middle of the big-league lineup. That much upside is hard to ignore with this pick. – Ethan Purser
Stock Analysis: Renfore falls a handful of picks, but very little has changed in the grand scheme of things. The 22-year-old put up numbers in the strongest conference in college baseball while showing the tools a team wants to dream on. At the same time, we won’t have an idea of Renfroe and the adjustments he’ll need to make until the outfielder reaches the higher levels of the minor leagues.

1:19 St. Louis Cardinals
Actual Selection: Marco Gonzales
Re-Draft Selection: D.J. Peterson (2013 no. 12 pick)
Reason:
I would have liked to take a bat here, specifically by nabbing a falling Renfroe, but he went right ahead of me. Instead I’m taking the type of prospect I often steer clear of by selecting a future first baseman. But I’m comfortable in this instance since I do believe Peterson is going to hit once he reaches the major leagues, which will be sooner rather than later. – Ron Shah
Stock Analysis: Peterson doesn’t have the tools to see a huge increase in stock, given his limited profile as a future first baseman. Fortunately for the 22-year-old, he carries a big stick, possessing the ability to hit for a high average and plus power. He’ll just need to keep showing that potential to avoid being forgotten.

1:20 Detroit Tigers
Actual Selection: Jonathan Crawford
Re-Draft Selection: Michael Lorenzen (2013 no. 38 pick)
Reason:
Entering last year's draft, Lorenzen was seen as a sure reliever, but the Reds saw something others didn't, and he looks like a solid bet to stick in the rotation. After seeing him in Pensacola earlier this year, I would agree with the Reds’ assessment and view him as a hard-throwing righty with mid-rotation potential, and that's a first round pick. – Mark Anderson
Stock Analysis: As mentioned above, Lorenzen isn’t the pure reliever some pegged him as out of college, so his stock is seeing a significant rise. If the former Titan continues the path he is on, the Reds (and Mark) will be getting a steal.

1:21 Tampa Bay Rays
Actual Selection: Nick Ciuffo
Re-Draft Selection: Dominic Smith (2013 no. 11 pick)
Reason:
Regarded as the best pure hitter in the high school class entering the 2013 draft, Smith is a good value 11 spots lower than he was drafted. After a very promising debut in rookie ball last year he has gotten off to a slow start as an 18-year-old in the SAL, but has shown the ability to to hit for average and get on base as one of the youngest players in the league. The power has not translated while playing half of his games in a home run graveyard but he shows it in BP and it is likely only a matter of time.– Todd Gold
Stock Analysis: Smith is going to need to hit and keep hitting in order to not see a drop in stock, as the 19-year-old receives the label of a first baseman-only prospect. But so far he hasn’t, hitting just .258/.326/.296 in his first full season, albeit in a pitcher’s palace.

1:22 Baltimore Orioles
Actual Selection: Hunter Harvey
Re-Draft Selection: Nick Ciuffo (2013 no. 21 pick)
Reason:
As is the case with most of their positional prep picks, the Rays will take it slow with Ciuffo, shipping him off to Princeton for short-season ball later this month. All complex reports have backed his amateur rep as a good catch-and-throw backstop with power potential at the plate and top-tier makeup and leadership skills. This is a catcher around whom you can build a system. – Nick J. Faleris
Stock Analysis: Ciuffo falls just one selection from his original draft spot, and nothing’s really changed with him either. The 19-year-old is behind his peers in the developmental process, but that is to be expected with most prep catchers.

1:23 Texas Rangers
Actual Selection: Alex Gonzalez
Re-Draft Selection: Travis Demeritte (2013 no. 30 pick)
Reason:
Demerrite will take time but the bat speed and sound of the ball off his bat provides a glimpse into the offensive production he could provide. He's raw on defense and lacks an approach at the plate but the ceiling is too high for me to ignore. There's some serious clout in his bat, with more to come as he adds strength to his frame. I jumped on him six spots earlier than the Rangers because guys with his ceiling are hard to find this late in the round. – Ryan Parker
Stock Analysis: Demeritte jumps ahead seven spots from his original draft selection. The 19-year-old doesn’t get the buzz his draft class peers do, but he’s showing power at a young age in his first full season. His stock could shift some depending on his future position, since Demeritte is seeing time at the hot corner as well as second base.

1:24 Oakland Athletics
Actual Selection: Billy McKinney
Re-Draft Selection: Phillip Ervin
(2013 no. 27 pick)
Reason: Ervin, an athlete with bat speed, always appealed to me. If he were four inches taller I think he would have probably been a top 10 pick. He's struggling in A-ball, but that doesn't concern me at all. He only got 34 games in Rookie ball before jumping to the Midwest League. He needs to be at a level where he's challenged, too. I see Ervin as a first division outfielder. I also considered Jonathan Crawford here. – Al Skorupa
Stock Analysis: Despite his early struggles in the Midwest League, Ervin’s moved up a few spots in this exercise. His stock could shift some depending on his future position, since the 21-year-old is still finding his defensive home. He’s currently playing all three outfield spots and is considered somewhat of a “tweener” in that regard.

1:25 San Francisco Giants
Actual Selection: Christian Arroyo
Re-Draft Selection: Jonathan Crawford (2013 no. 20 pick)
Reason:
Crawford dropped five spots in this draft through no fault of his own, so I'm happy to pounce on a college right-hander with two potential plus pitches. Yes, there’s a chance he ends up as a reliever, but he'd still be productive in that role and would only move faster through my farm system. For now, he'll remain a starter and work to improve his fastball command, which is the biggest obstacle in his way. – Jeff Moore
Stock Analysis: Crawford drops five spots in the re-draft due to lacking the clear future in the starting rotation. We won’t learn more about Crawford until he moves up the ladder, as he is still lagging behind compared to those selected ahead of him.

1:26 New York Yankees
Actual Selection: Eric Jagielo
Re-Draft Selection: Aaron Judge (2013 no. 32 pick)
Reason:
Judge is a high risk talent with elite raw power. It might take some time for him to alter his swing in a manner conducive for in-game success at the higher levels, but that is a risk I would be willing to take with this selection. – Tucker Blair
Stock Analysis: As a lottery ticket, Judge is moving up six spots, replacing his organizational teammate Eric Jagielo in this spot. The Fresno State product possesses huge raw power, but there are questions as to whether he can hit enough, due to his enormous limbs. Until that dream is crushed, Judge’s stock will continue to rise, with many betting on the huge upside.

1:27 Cincinnati Reds
Actual Selection: Phillip Ervin
Re-Draft Selection: Chris Anderson (2013 no. 18 pick)
Reason:
Anderson is the best player available. I’m picking the Dodger prospect because of his upside; Anderson looks the part and shows four pitches, but is held back by inconsistency and fastball command struggles. – Ron Shah
Stock Analysis: Anderson’s stock has slipped due to his poor showing in the hitter-friendly California League. He falls nine picks from his original selection as a result, but still shows the upside that made the Dodgers take him at no. 18 overall.

Ron Shah is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Ron's other articles. You can contact Ron by clicking here

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