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March 27, 2014

Skewed Left

PECOTA vs. Vegas

by Zachary Levine


One year later, I couldn’t bring myself to take PECOTA back to Las Vegas with me. It wasn’t that we did badly last year. We did OK. We nailed a couple of the big unders, betting on the White Sox and Phillies not reaching their above-.500 Over/Under figures in what would turn out to be terrible seasons. We lost on some others, as PECOTA was too high on the beat-up Yankees, too low on the Orioles (like the rest of us) and missed the Braves party completely. We also collected on the Dodgers winning the NL West, which they did easily after a slow start.

So we’re still solvent; it’s just that I can’t take PECOTA back to Las Vegas with me. I can’t really explain why, but it was something in between the Riviera and the Rhino, and while the details are sort of fuzzy, when we got the request to revive PECOTA’s best gambling bets, I thought it was best to do it from the comforts of home through the magic of offshore wagering.

I thought we might have missed our chance because of the lowercase “o” opening day overseas, but Bovada, one of the leading online wagering sites, simply updated the Dodgers and Diamondbacks numbers and let the games go on. And speaking of the Dodgers, they’re one of the teams that PECOTA is the most extreme on—and in the positive direction, despite having the highest number on the Bovada board.

Already off to a 2-0 start, they get PECOTA’s vote as the strongest bet on the over, given the output of our simulation system.

As for the strong under play, it’s once again going to be Atlanta. Fool me once, shame on the Nationals for underachieving in 2013. But with an over-under of 87.5 even after the injuries have taken their toll and a .500 PECOTA projection, it’s the easiest Under play on the board.

You have to take slightly skewed odds on these (-125) in the direction we’re betting them vs. (-105) the other way, but these are the ones with the best chance of hitting.

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Related Content:  PECOTA,  Betting,  Vegas,  Vegas Odds

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<< Previous Article
Premium Article Baseball Therapy: Adva... (03/27)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Skewed Left: Where Are... (03/20)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Skewed Left: The Revol... (04/03)
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Premium Article Draft Ten Pack: Weeken... (03/27)

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