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February 21, 2014

Graphical Fantasy Rankings

Outfielders

by Mauricio Rubio

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For the earlier editions in this series, click below:

I broke these down into three different graphs, left field, center field, and right field. These are ordered by where PECOTA’s book version thinks these players will play. The outfield in general has a big upper tier, which is a function of how rapidly the bottom falls out when you get to the bottoms of the position. Let’s take a look at each graph

Again, these graphs are based on the PECOTA book projections, but we’ll soon have a more reader-friendly interface that will present you with more options (including interchangeable stats for those of you in leagues with different stat layouts).

It’s refreshing to see CF host the two best players at the position. Trout is clearly the top player here and I toyed with the idea of making a sixth tier just to highlight his upper extremes. The book has him at 38 stolen bases and 24 HRs and a .394 OBP. McCutchen has neither the SBs nor the power potential but he’s an elite all-around player and it’s reflected with the bars here.

Bryce Harper has a real chance at joining the five-star-tier guys when we do this next season. Ryan Braun’s 2014 can go a lot of ways, though I think the book was too pessimistic with his projections. I would put Matt Kemp in that same boat. I think it’s understandable to be conservative with both of these players but I would target both of these players.

Hamilton is going to be a hot player to track through 2014 for one reason or another. If he plays every day he’s going to steal 70 bases. Similarly Puig will be watched closely in 2014. I think he will be targeted aggressively in upcoming drafts but I think a three-star-tier ranking is appropriate here. He has to prove it over a full season.

PECOTA is optimistic about B.J. Upton’s ability to bounce back in 2014, which comes with a low average still but pretty good counting stats. I think Alejandro De Aza’s playing time took a hit with Eaton’s arrival, so adjust accordingly. Bourjos is a health risk, which is why his numbers don’t project so well.

For the curious, here are the tier breakdowns:

HR

Tier 1

18+

Tier 2

13-17

Tier 3

8-12

Tier 4

3-7

Tier 5

0-2

RS

Tier 1

64+

Tier 2

51-63

Tier 3

38-50

Tier 4

25-37

Tier 5

0-24

RBI

Tier 1

65+

Tier 2

49-64

Tier 3

35-48

Tier 4

21-34

Tier 5

0-20

SB

Tier 1

17+

Tier 2

11-'16

Tier 3

5-10

Tier 4

1-5

Tier 5

0

AVG

Tier 1

277+

Tier 2

263-276

Tier 3

249-262

Tier 4

234-248

Tier 5

233-

Mauricio Rubio is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Mauricio's other articles. You can contact Mauricio by clicking here

Related Content:  Fantasy,  Outfielders

19 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

rofldude

Is Adam Eaton an omission by design or inadvertent?

Feb 21, 2014 05:28 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Mauricio Rubio
BP staff

Design, there are a host of guys, Aramis Ramirez is another example, that I wanted to spend time on apart from the positions. It'll all be updated at the end.

Feb 21, 2014 05:59 AM
 
BP staff member Mauricio Rubio
BP staff

CarGo will be added tonight.

Feb 21, 2014 06:02 AM
 
apaterson

If this is from a fantasy perspective, then Choo should be listed as a CF. He'll have eligibility in all fantasy leagues this year.

Feb 21, 2014 06:57 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Mauricio Rubio
BP staff

I'll flip him out when I add CarGo, thanks.

Feb 21, 2014 06:58 AM
 
AJ

Thank You! Thank You! Thank You! Breaking down by LF/CF/RF is super helpful as all but two of the seven dynasty leagues I am in use them over OF.

Feb 21, 2014 07:52 AM
rating: 1
 
ander521

Quote "Again, these graphs are based on the PECOTA book projections, but we’ll soon have a more reader-friendly interface that will present you with more options (including interchangeable stats for those of you in leagues with different stat layouts)"

WOW!!!!

Was thinking of doing this myself, since I love the graphics you have put together (In fact you have inspired me to think about presenting data at work in new and different ways).

Feb 21, 2014 10:15 AM
rating: 2
 
BP staff member Mauricio Rubio
BP staff

That's awesome, I hope it goes well.

Feb 22, 2014 07:49 AM
 
NightmareRec0n

Would it be fair to say Matt Kemp = Justin Upton + injury risk?

They are very similar low contact power/speed guys.

Feb 21, 2014 11:46 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Mauricio Rubio
BP staff

I think Kemp has higher potential in terms of average at this point, and Upton has more power potential moving forward. It's close though.

Feb 22, 2014 07:50 AM
 
BP staff member Mauricio Rubio
BP staff

CARGO has been added.

Feb 22, 2014 07:48 AM
 
Myles Handley

Centerfield picture is broken for me.

Feb 24, 2014 06:04 AM
rating: 0
 
jasonFWL

Are you going to do pitchers too... i find the visual very helpful?

Feb 25, 2014 17:31 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Mauricio Rubio
BP staff

Yes, I'm working on it now, expect it Friday.

Feb 26, 2014 10:52 AM
 
scifi451

The center field image is broken for me as well.

Feb 25, 2014 20:13 PM
rating: 0
 
LarsJohanson

Still broken for me.

Feb 26, 2014 10:51 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Mauricio Rubio
BP staff

will fix tonight, sorry about that.

Feb 26, 2014 10:52 AM
 
LarsJohanson

Thanks for the update

Feb 27, 2014 06:11 AM
rating: 0
 
dancini

The CF page will not load for some reason on all of my devices

Feb 26, 2014 10:59 AM
rating: 0
 
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