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February 21, 2014

Graphical Fantasy Rankings

Outfielders

by Mauricio Rubio

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For the earlier editions in this series, click below:

I broke these down into three different graphs, left field, center field, and right field. These are ordered by where PECOTA’s book version thinks these players will play. The outfield in general has a big upper tier, which is a function of how rapidly the bottom falls out when you get to the bottoms of the position. Let’s take a look at each graph

Again, these graphs are based on the PECOTA book projections, but we’ll soon have a more reader-friendly interface that will present you with more options (including interchangeable stats for those of you in leagues with different stat layouts).

It’s refreshing to see CF host the two best players at the position. Trout is clearly the top player here and I toyed with the idea of making a sixth tier just to highlight his upper extremes. The book has him at 38 stolen bases and 24 HRs and a .394 OBP. McCutchen has neither the SBs nor the power potential but he’s an elite all-around player and it’s reflected with the bars here.

Bryce Harper has a real chance at joining the five-star-tier guys when we do this next season. Ryan Braun’s 2014 can go a lot of ways, though I think the book was too pessimistic with his projections. I would put Matt Kemp in that same boat. I think it’s understandable to be conservative with both of these players but I would target both of these players.

Hamilton is going to be a hot player to track through 2014 for one reason or another. If he plays every day he’s going to steal 70 bases. Similarly Puig will be watched closely in 2014. I think he will be targeted aggressively in upcoming drafts but I think a three-star-tier ranking is appropriate here. He has to prove it over a full season.

PECOTA is optimistic about B.J. Upton’s ability to bounce back in 2014, which comes with a low average still but pretty good counting stats. I think Alejandro De Aza’s playing time took a hit with Eaton’s arrival, so adjust accordingly. Bourjos is a health risk, which is why his numbers don’t project so well.

For the curious, here are the tier breakdowns:

HR

Tier 1

18+

Tier 2

13-17

Tier 3

8-12

Tier 4

3-7

Tier 5

0-2

RS

Tier 1

64+

Tier 2

51-63

Tier 3

38-50

Tier 4

25-37

Tier 5

0-24

RBI

Tier 1

65+

Tier 2

49-64

Tier 3

35-48

Tier 4

21-34

Tier 5

0-20

SB

Tier 1

17+

Tier 2

11-'16

Tier 3

5-10

Tier 4

1-5

Tier 5

0

AVG

Tier 1

277+

Tier 2

263-276

Tier 3

249-262

Tier 4

234-248

Tier 5

233-

Mauricio Rubio is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Mauricio's other articles. You can contact Mauricio by clicking here

Related Content:  Fantasy,  Outfielders

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