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January 31, 2014

BP Experts Prospect Mock Draft

Rounds 5-7

by Baseball Prospectus


Continuing with the theme of less filler and more of the good stuff, let’s jump right in here. If you want to revisit the parameters of the draft, they are all in the initial post of the series. If you don’t, you may skip right over this:

So without any further ado, here are the next three rounds (five, six, and seven) of the Baseball Prospectus Expert Mock Prospect Draft with analysis from the participants themselves:

Round Five

5.57) Kyle Crick, RHP, San Francisco Giants (Eno Sarris, FanGraphs)
“My research suggests that the changeup is the healthiest pitch—maybe that's why so many organizations insist that their prospects learn it—which is ironic because an oblique issue felled Crick this year. And his delivery is not without its detractors. That's okay; the changeup is also a platoon-buster, and his is excellent. It's a hard changeup, but it works for whiffs and grounders since his fastball hits the mid-90s. Along with Meyer and Stroman, Crick demanded my attention in Arizona this past fall. Like Owens, Crick needs to work on his command. Like Owens, Crick starts with two excellent pitches and lots of gas. One of these guys will hopefully work out to give lots of strikeouts—long-term injury concerns due to bad command/mechanics can fall on these players' next owners' heads.”

5.58) Colin Moran, 3B, Miami Marlins (Chris Crawford, MLB Draft Insider)
“It took me a little while to warm up to Moran, but I've come around in a big way. He has excellent barrel control and rarely swings at pitches outside of the strike zone (a staple of UNC hitters), and even if he doesn't put up big homer totals, he should be a doubles machine with the ability to drive the ball into the left and right field gaps. My only concern is that he's not a lock to stick at third, but if he can, he's a .300 hitter who can hit 18-20 homers, and I could see him contributing in Miami as soon as the middle of next season.”

5.59) Stephen Piscotty, OF, St Louis Cardinals (Ray Guilfoyle, Fake Teams)
“The Cardinals' first-round pick in the 2012 draft has moved quickly, as he has already played half a season in Double-A ball, showing solid hitting skills with average power. He is well liked in the Cardinals organization and some think he can make an appearance in the big leagues as soon as this season. He should start the year in AAA and could get a call up should Matt Holliday or Allen Craig go down with an injury, assuming Oscar Taveras is already manning an outfield spot in St. Louis.”

5.60) Matt Wisler, RHP, San Diego Padres (John Sickels, Minor League Ball)
“Like my other pitching pick, Erik Johnson, Wisler gets less press notice than some top pitching prospects but looks like a good value from where I'm sitting. He throws four pitches for strikes, pitched very effectively in Double-A at age 20, and will play in a big-league home park that is conducive to pitching.”

5.61) Raimel Tapia, OF, Colorado Rockies (Bret Sayre, Baseball Prospectus)
“I've taken some safer names thus far, so now it's time to shoot for the moon. The reports on Tapia from his 2013 U.S. debut in the Pioneer League are pornographic, and the helium may only get stronger when he takes aim at the 100-foot wall in right-center field at Asheville (okay, fine, I'm slightly exaggerating). He has power, speed, and can barrel up everything—which can lead to continued low strikeout rates (was at 10.8 percent this past season). A full-season explosion, and the start of far too many CarGo comps, awaits.”

5.62) Kohl Stewart, RHP, Minnesota Twins (J.D. Sussman, Bullpen Banter)
“There are far more high-quality pitchers than position players left on the board at this point. The best of the remaining position players are at positions we've already filled, too. There are a couple of upper-minors SPs I considered here, but Stewart distinguishes himself from them because he has a solid chance to be an Ace level starter; to be special. I'm not thrilled about taking a high school arm, but Stewart isn't a typical high-school arm. In a few rounds, there will still be plenty of solid piece-type players to choose from, but prospects who can develop into premium players at their positions will be hard to come by.”

5.63) Alen Hanson, 2B, Pittsburgh Pirates (Mike Newman, RotoScouting)
“After drafting a pair of pitchers and corner infielders, it makes sense to select Hanson due to positional need. Fortunately, the shortstop (future second baseman?) is probably the most established prospect commodity left, so the pick isn't a reach. Hanson was pushed aggressively in 2013, finishing the season with a .274/.329/.427 triple-slash line at an age that made him young for the level of competition. His OPS plummeted from a breakout 2012, but Hanson still tallied 48 extra-base hits and 30 stolen bases. Hanson's bat whip is impressive, and I like the way the bat head lingers in the strike zone. As he matures, a middle infielder who hits .285 with 12-15 home runs and 20-plus stolen bases isn't out of the question.”

5.64) Andrew Heaney, LHP, Miami Marlins (Ben Carsley, Baseball Prospectus)
“I really wanted Kohl Stewart here, and in retrospect I maybe should have grabbed a high-upside arm when I took Wong and settled for a lesser MI prospect here. But I'm far from disappointed to be nabbing Heaney now, as I think he is a comparable prospect to Henry Owens, but one who could post better numbers thanks to his home ballpark and playing in the National League. I'm not expecting the wins to roll in, but I'll take a lefty who should produce a respectable strikeout rate, good WHIP, and solid ERA as soon as 2015 this late in the draft. The upside isn't crazy, but the floor is high, and Heaney is a solid foundation for my pitching staff. “

5.65) Joe Ross, RHP, San Diego Padres (Nick Shlain, Rotowire)
“Ross is a big kid at 6-foot-3, and he uses that frame and a strong lower half to pound the bottom of the zone with low-to-mid-90s heat and induce ground balls. If his shoulder holds up, I anticipate that Ross will be a mid-rotation innings-eater at the major-league level with a chance for more. His slider flashes plus and he needs to work on his changeup, but down the line he could be similar to the pitcher Ivan Nova was in 2013, with ground-ball tendencies and good strikeout totals. “

5.66) Josh Bell, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates (Mike Rosenbaum, Bleacher Report)
“After playing in only 15 games in 2012 after suffering a torn meniscus in his left knee, Josh Bell returned to action last season and quickly reminded everyone of his potential by posting a .369 wOBA and 131 wRC+ in 519 plate appearances at Low-A West Virginia.

The 21-year-old switch-hitter projects to hit for both average and power at the highest level, employing a short line-drive stroke from the right side of the plate and a more leveraged and power-oriented swing from the left. Bell hit 37 doubles compared to 13 home runs last season, and as he continues to add strength and gain experience against quality pitching, it’s easy to envision him becoming a consistent 20-plus-home-run threat at maturity.”

5.67) Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (Craig Glaser, Bloomberg Sports)
“Glasnow is a giant (6-foot-7) strikeout machine. He probably added as much to his stock as any pitching prospect in 2013, as he struck out 36.3 percent of the batters he faced in Class-A ball, allowing only a .141 batting average thanks to a .215 BABIP, which contributed to his sterling 2.18 ERA. The main concern is control, as he also walked 13.5 percent of the batters he faced. He sits in the low-to-mid-90s with his fastball, which combined with his height should give batters fits. He also has a strong curveball, which projects as a plus pitch. With room to add some weight, there's a chance he could add some velocity as well. He'll need to work on his control and his changeup to avoid becoming a bust, but, should he make it, the potential is there for him to be a dominant major-league starter.”

5.68) D.J. Peterson, 3B, Seattle Mariners (Jim Callis, MLB.com)
“I had targeted Kohl Stewart with this pick, then Tyler Glasnow (and Andrew Heaney would have been next on my list), but those plans have been dashed. I'll change gears and take an impact bat. D.J. Peterson might be the best all-around hitter to come out of the 2013 draft, so he's my pick. He combines exceptional bat speed and hand-eye coordination, and he slammed 13 homers in his first 55 pro games. Even if his lack of quickness pushes him to first base, he has the bat to be a star.”

5.69) Braden Shipley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (Nick Faleris, Baseball Prospectus)
“I had tabbed D.J. Peterson for this pick. With Jim popping him the pick ahead of me, I'll instead grab another 2013 draft favorite in Nevada standout Braden Shipley. The limited track record belies the relative safety of the pick, as Shipley checks all the boxes—a sound mechanical foundation, highly athletic actions, and electric raw stuff. He has limited experience on the mound, but in that short timespan he has had no trouble establishing himself as a potential future frontline arm wielding three plus-or-better offerings. Entering his first full season of exposure to a pro-dev staff, he could blow up in a big way this summer.”

5.70) Arismendy Alcantara, 2B/SS, Chicago Cubs (Craig Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus)
“I don't think my love of Alcantara is any great secret. I like his value at an up-the-middle position as well as the chance that he could be helpful as soon as this year (though 2015 is more likely). He's got some pop despite a small frame, and showed it in the Futures Game. Double-digit homers aren't out of reach, and he has shown a willingness to steal bags as well. My favorite part about his game was his increased walk rate despite the jump from High-A to Double-A. He should be able to contribute all around without being much of a detriment anywhere. It's a safe pick, but my only bat so far is years off (Adalberto Mondesi).”

Round Six

6.71) Michael Choice, OF, Texas Rangers (Craig Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus)
“I'll follow him up with another safe pick who should see major-league time this year in Michael Choice. I think the move to Texas does a lot for his value and while there is a ton of swing-and-miss to his game, there's enough power potential there for me to bite. He's got a chance to see major at-bats this season despite the acquisition of Shin-Soo Choo, and is a viable in-house option for Texas if Alex Rios departs after next season (they hold a club option).”

6.72) Sean Manaea, LHP, Kansas City Royals (Nick Faleris, Baseball Prospectus)
“Were it not for impressive recent reports on Manaea, I'd leave the risk for someone else to take on. But even as someone who has eyed the limby lefty with caution since his Cape Cod breakout, I have to acknowledge how impressive the Royals' supplemental-first rounder has been at times in the past, and what the upside looks like if he can stay healthy and harness the stuff. He's a potential no. 2 starter that can bring three future plus pitches with deception, missing plenty of bats along the way, and from recent accounts it sounds like Manaea is looking more and more like the dominant force evaluators salivated over on the Cape. There's risk, but that's generally the case with the players still left on the board.”

6.73) Blake Swihart, C, Boston Red Sox (Jim Callis, MLB.com)
“I still have my eye on a few pitchers who come with high ceilings but also some risk, and I'll gamble that one of them makes it back to me. I'll go with position scarcity here and grab Swihart, a very athletic catcher and gifted hitter. I see him hitting .280 with 15 homers per year, maybe a few more, and accumulating plenty of runs and RBI while batting in the middle of a productive Red Sox lineup.”

6.74) Mike Foltynewicz, RHP, Houston Astros (Craig Glaser, Bloomberg Sports)
“Capable of hitting triple digits with his fastball, Foltynewicz is another pitcher who has some control issues to work on before he can be counted on to be a productive pitcher in the majors. He has used a curveball and slider as secondary pitches in the minors, with the slider apparently having the edge right now, though both of them need significant work. The Astros invited him to spring training this year, and he will likely spend the year in Double-A or Triple-A working on complementing his electric fastball with command, control, and secondary pitches. Hopefully, he'll figure something out and become a strong starter, but even if he can't, it's easy to imagine a role for his fastball at the back end of a bullpen.”

6.75) Rymer Liriano, OF, San Diego Padres (Mike Rosenbaum, Bleacher Report)
“Liriano’s stock is down after Tommy John surgery cost him the entire 2013 season, but I thought he was worth the gamble considering the lack of thunder on my team. The 22-year-old has yet to show consistent over-the-fence power in games—23 career home runs in 1,356 full-season plate appearances—but he posted back-to-back seasons with 30-plus doubles before the injury, and his physicality (6-foot, 225 pounds) suggests there's plenty of untapped raw.

Though his tools are loud and projectable, Liriano still lacks consistency in all facets of the game. Specifically, his inability to make adjustments at the dish has resulted in an ugly track record following mid-season promotions. However, it is worth noting that he was a younger player at each advanced level. Regardless, when he finally puts everything together, Liriano could be a middle-of-the-order corner outfielder with legit 20/20 potential.”

6.76) Luis Sardinas, SS, Texas Rangers (Nick Shlain, Rotowire)
“Sardinas is a toolsy shortstop and his speed could make him a good fantasy value down the line. He has a fluid swing from both sides of the plate and hit .298 in 98 A-ball games as a 20-year-old. At the major-league level, I can see him contributing runs, average and stolen bases. He might develop some gap power, but I don't expect that to be a big part of his game. Sardinas is a plus defender with a great arm, so sticking at shortstop isn't an issue for him.“

6.77) Jake Marisnick, OF, Miami Marlins (Ben Carsley, Baseball Prospectus)
“Losing Rymer was a big punch to the gut—he's one of my favorites and I thought I'd be able to steal him in round seven or eight—but I shall move past my depression with Marisnick, who seems to be a forgotten man among outfield prospects despite a strong power/speed combo and a history of reaching base in the minors. Am I worried that the hit tool will dampen the utility of his other tools? Yes. But I'll gamble on someone who could be George Springer-lite this late in the draft, especially since he should contribute this season. I do think he needs another 250-400 PA in Triple-A, but I'm not letting his poor showing in the majors last year dissuade me.”

6.78) Lucas Sims, RHP, Atlanta Braves (Mike Newman, RotoScouting)
“Sims is a pitcher I scouted on multiple occasions in 2013. With a 92-95-mph fastball and hammer curve, he has the makings of a swing-and-miss arsenal. An added bonus is the fact that Sims is one of the more athletic pitchers in minor-league baseball. This leaves the right-hander a high ceiling talent with room to improve.

One concern of mine is the ball comes out of his hand much like Trevor Bauer. Sims has a tendency to elevate the fastball and it's a bit flat. This caught up to Indians prospect at the upper levels and Sims will need to make adjustments. Whether one believes in Sims' future or not, he's a strong pick here as the top player in the Braves system. That recognition leaves him as a valuable trade chip in dynasty leagues.”

6.79) Phillip Ervin, OF, Cincinnati Reds (J.D. Sussman, Bullpen Banter)
I find myself struggling to come up with position players that excite me here. Conversely, there are a whole slew of arms of about similar quality available. I'm not thrilled with the concept of taking a non-elite outfield prospect, but I'm going to go with Ervin from Cincinnati. He boasts a lightning-quick bat and hands with surprising power. He’s also a good athlete with base-stealing skills. I loved Ervin on the Cape, and I think he's going to continue to surprise people throughout his career. He won't carry a fantasy team or anything, but he's a strong across-the-board contributor who will play in a hitter-friendly park that fits him well.”

6.80) Brian Goodwin, OF, Washington Nationals (Bret Sayre, Baseball Prospectus)
“Like you guys thought I wasn't going to take him. I'm going to buck the "shiny new toy" trend and go with a player who struggled in 2013, but I still believe has the skill set to be a valuable fantasy player as soon as 2015. Goodwin can be a true five-category contributor, even if he is not elite in any of them.”

6.81) James Paxton, LHP, Seattle Mariners (John Sickels, Minor League Ball)
“I’m going back to the well for another major-league ready pitcher to pair with Erik Johnson and Matt Wisler: Paxton. He had an erratic year in Triple-A but showed what he was capable of doing in a brief major league trial. I think he will surprise people this year. He's not a shiny new toy, but he can dominate when everything is working.”

6.82) Dominic Smith, 1B, New York Mets (Ray Guilfoyle, Fake Teams)
“Smith is a 2013 draft pick who hit well in Rookie ball after signing with the Mets. He showed a keen eye at the plate in 48 games at that level, walking at a 12 percent clip with an acceptable strikeout rate, but did not hit for much power at all. He is just 18 years of age, so he has plenty of time to develop the power, which is a must if he is stuck at first base. Then again, a first baseman with average power and a high walk rate isn't so bad in an era when power continues to drop across the sport.”

6.83) J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies (Chris Crawford, MLB Draft Insider)
“Well, I had Dominic Smith's card ready to hand in, but since he was stolen from me, I'll go with the best middle-infielder on my board in Crawford. As a left-handed hitter with excellent feel for hitting along with plus defensive instincts (if not tools), I could see Crawford moving through the system very quickly, and seasons of .290 batting averages with 12-15 homers and 20-25 stolen bases are not out of the question.”

6.84) Austin Hedges, C, San Diego Padres (Eno Sarris, FanGraphs)
“Austin Hedges' game may not translate well to fantasy. He's a great defensive catcher, and his throws to second wowed the crowd in Arizona. But at the plate instead of behind it, his best asset might just be his ability to make contact. Here, I'm okay with taking a catcher and seeing if the power will develop. I really wanted Crawford, though.”

Round Seven

7.85) C.J. Edwards, RHP, Chicago Cubs (Eno Sarris, FanGraphs)
“At this point in the draft, there's a lot more pitching than hitting, but at least I'm excited about C.J. Edwards. Sure, I'd like him to stand taller, get more life on the fastball, and, maybe most of all, eat (he's on the frail side now), but I think he'll settle in with a low-nineties fastball and a plus curveball at worst—and the changeup has a chance to be average. Maybe he's not an ace. The Cubs need all kinds, and mid-rotation guys in the NL are mostly useful in fantasy. Or I use the gaudy strikeout numbers to pry a hitter loose.”

7.86) Hunter Harvey, RHP, Baltimore Orioles (Chris Crawford, MLB Draft Insider)
“It wasn't my intention to take a pitcher this early again, but Harvey was the last player on my personal top 30 still available, and I couldn't 'risk' waiting another round. With a fastball that touches 96 and a curve that will show two levels of break, Harvey has a chance to miss bats at the big-league level, though the change still needs development. Nevertheless, with Harvey's feel for pitching and two potential out pitches, there's big-time upside in his right arm, and he should be able to help in all of the starting-pitching categories.”

7.87) Bubba Starling, OF, Kansas City Royals (Ray Guilfoyle, Fake Teams)
“The former top prospect has fallen on hard times in the low minors, and questions persist about his ability to make enough contact and whether he can correct the flaws in his swing. Some are attaching a bust label on him, but he is still just 21 years old. He still has the chance to make the necessary corrections. though they will have to happen soon. George Brett on line one, please.”

7.88) Josmil Pinto, C, Minnesota Twins (John Sickels, Minor League Ball)
"No, he's not going to it .342 over a full season, but I bet he can hit .280 with some power. He controls the strike zone reasonably well, and his defense has improved a lot over the last three years, enough that the Twins are comfortable moving Joe Mauer to first base. Pinto may not be a star, but he should be solid, and a catcher who can hit is one of the holier grails for both fantasy teams and real ones."

7.89) Tim Anderson, SS, Chicago White Sox (Bret Sayre, Baseball Prospectus)
“Adding to the recent theme, pitching continues to be available, so I'll take my chances with who gets back to me and take the highest upside hitter left on my board. Anderson carries a good amount of risk, but the specter of a power/speed combination (who also has the potential for an above-average hit tool) at such a shallow position is too much to pass up on. And after spending what seemed like half of the last There Is No Offseason podcast defending him, I'm even more resolute in this pick. Give me upside or give me death.”

7.90) Allen Webster, RHP, Boston Red Sox (J.D. Sussman, Bullpen Banter)
“I'll take Allen Webster. Tremendous arm and stuff. I think Webster has a very strong chance to be a frontline starter. His command falters and his stuff can be a little inconsistent, but I think he just needs to get stronger (and that he will).”

7.91) Rosell Herrera, SS, Colorado Rockies (Mike Newman, RotoScouting)
“Herrera has been a personal favorite since watching him drop back-to-back batting practice bombs after making a side bet with an Asheville coach. When he flopped in 2012, I beat back my fondness for the infielder and wondered what went wrong. In spring of 2013, I stumbled upon Herrera taking batting practice on the back fields and fell hard all over again. Then, he dropped a ridiculous bomb in game action, which led me to add him as an honorable mention when discussing the best players scouted in Arizona.

With ideal size and developing power, Herrera profiles well offensively. He's likely to move off of shortstop, but I'm fine with him as a second or third baseman. Once Herrera fills out his frame, I trust the bat will play regardless.”

7.92) Joey Gallo, 3B, Texas Rangers (Ben Carsley, Baseball Prospectus)
“Yes, this pick scares the crap out of me. Gallo struck out in over one-third of his plate appearances last year, has a hole in his swing the size of Jose Altuve, and produced a mediocre .245/.334/.610 (.610!) line in Single-A. The odds are not good that the hit tool ever comes around enough for the massive, jaw-dropping power to play, and I probably just drafted a dud.

But even if there's a 10 percent chance that Gallo can hit enough to start in the majors, that chance would see him outperform all but 20-or-so names on this list, from a fantasy perspective. Gallo can hit 40 homers in the majors in 500 PA, and his absurd arm means those PA would likely come at 3B. We hear Adam Dunn/Mark Reynolds/Russell Branyan comps all the time, and save for Dunn, it's not an inspiring list. But I'll take his upside this late in the draft without a second thought.”

7.93) Jesse Biddle, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies (Nick Shlain, Rotowire)
I'm a little surprised to see Biddle still on the board here. It wasn't the best Double-A debut ever (3.64 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) but he was hardly outclassed. There are questions about his fastball (velo whores, all of you), but I'm encouraged by his ability to miss bats (26.2 percent strikeout rate). I'm a fan of the body, secondary stuff, and his pitchability. Could have a no. 3 type pitcher here.

7.94) Miguel Almonte, RHP, Kansas City Royals (Mike Rosenbaum, Bleacher Report)
“I wasn’t planning on selecting another pitcher for the duration of the draft, but the opportunity to land Almonte in the seventh round was too good to pass on. Anyway, I fell in love with the right-hander after watching him shove it against Lakewood last spring.

At 6-foot-2, 180 pounds, the 20-year-old has an aggressive approach and floods the zone with a projectable four-pitch mix, including a plus fastball in the 91-95 mph range (T96-97) and above-average changeup with outstanding fade. The right-hander’s control resulted in excellent strikeout (24.7 percent) and walk (6.7 percent) rates last season in the South Atlantic League, while his 1.16 WHIP ranked fifth among all qualified starters. Though Almonte may hit some road bumps between the High- and Double-A levels and will need to develop a consistent breaking ball, he has the potential to contribute in multiple fantasy categories if he can come close to reaching his lofty ceiling.”

7.95) Rafael Montero, RHP, New York Mets (Craig Glaser, Bloomberg Sports)
“Pretty close to the complete opposite of my last two picks, Montero is a control artist who may not have the ceiling of a guy like Glasnow but has a much higher floor. He throws a low-90s fastball, a slider, and a changeup, but his main asset is his control. After striking out over 27 percent of batters he faced in High-A in 2012 and Double-A to start 2013, Montero finished up 2013 pitching for the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate, the Las Vegas 51s, where he struck out 21 percent of the batters he faced but, more importantly, walked only seven percent. Vegas is one of the hardest minor-league parks to pitch in, and Montero's 3.05 ERA and 2.87 FIP in Triple-A are real credits to what he can do on the mound. He's also close to the majors, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him pitching in Citi Field during the 2014 season.”

7.96) Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds (Jim Callis, MLB.com)
“After I took Blake Swihart with my last pick, I made a short list of targets for my next choice. But Phillip Ervin, Dominic Smith, C.J. Edwards, Allen Webster, Rosell Herrera, and Joey Gallo all went, wiping out my entire list. I'll go with Winker, who posted an .841 OPS with nearly as many walks (63) as strikeouts (75) in the pitcher-friendly Low-A Midwest League last year—at age 19. He should hit for solid power and average, and I envision a future .280 hitter with 20-plus homers annually once he gets settled in at Great American Ball Park. I was hoping I could wait another couple of rounds on Winker, but I'll pop him here.”

7.97) Nick Williams, OF, Texas Rangers (Nick Faleris, Baseball Prospectus)
“Williams is a sleeping giant, with potential plus-plus hit and above-average raw to go with plus playable speed. The bat-to-ball ability is deep rooted and primal, with a no-nonsense "see ball; hit ball" approach. The bat speed and hand-eye coordination allows Williams to thrive in the box in spite of a minimalist approach and borderline detrimental level of aggression. His playable speed ranks below his athletic ability, as big cuts limit his jumps out of the box, and his limited feel for the craft of base running leads to inconsistent reads and poor jumps. At this point in the draft, I don't care about any of that, as Williams' innate ability to punish baseballs could mean a .300/20-plus line, and there simply aren't many tested full-season talents left on the board that can boast that potential. If he can stumble into double-digit stolen bases as well, all is the better.”

7.98) Lewis Brinson, OF, Texas Rangers (Craig Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus)
“While I would have loved to have a shot at Nick Williams, I'll do my best to move on by selecting his more athletic teammate Lewis Brinson. At the time of his drafting, Brinson was thought of as a toolshed who could be something incredible but lacked baseball instincts. Once in camp though he showed he had instincts to go with his myriad tools and received a bunch of helium. He struggled to make contact at Low-A (38 percent strikeout rate!) but I believe he can cut down on the whiffs enough to allow his power (21 home runs), and speed (24 stolen bases) to play up. Throw in a solid walk rate at Low-A (9.5 percent) and his age (19), and there's a lot to hope on. There's obviously a lot that can go wrong, but at this point in this draft, the upside is too much to pass up.”

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