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December 17, 2013

Fantasy Freestyle

Putting Stock in the Best Hitters of the Second Half

by Bret Sayre


It’s relatively easy to tell when a player has a full-on breakout. Matt Carpenter and Paul Goldschmidt both had easily the strongest seasons of their respective careers in 2013—it doesn’t take a baseball genius to figure that out. However, every pre-season, there is always be a lot of talk about how a player had a “breakout second half,” leading to talk that they will be able to build off that experience in the following season. At face value, that makes sense. But at face value, we’re also clearly dealing with sample size issues. For every Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson, who hinted at their offensive explosions towards the end of the prior season, there are many more who never capitalize on said promise.

For the purposes of this exercise, we’re going to be looking at hitters with a .900+ OPS during the second half of the previous season in at least 100 plate appearances. But before we dig into the 2013 members of this group, we’re going to take it one step further and look back at the last couple of seasons to see exactly how this control group fared.

Let’s start with the 2012 second-half stars, sorted by 2013 fantasy profit (all valuations courtesy of BP’s own Mike Gianella):

Player

Split

Year

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<< Previous Article
Premium Article Prospects Will Break Y... (12/16)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Sev... (12/13)
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Fantasy Freestyle: Goi... (12/19)
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Premium Article Minor League Update: I... (12/17)

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