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November 19, 2013

Fantasy Bargains and Busts

American League Hitters

by Mike Gianella


Why look back?

This question is typically asked in philosophical or self help circles, with the answer typically being that we should never look back and should always focus on what lies ahead, not behind. Generally speaking, this isn’t bad advice. If you get too bogged down in what happened yesterday, you’ll miss out on opportunities in the present.

In fantasy baseball, this philosophical view is held strongly by the vast majority of experts as well as players in the industry. For them, Satchel Paige had it right: “Don’t look back; something may be gaining on you.” Last year is last year, and to waste time focusing on last year is wasting time that you could be looking at ways to improve your team in the upcoming season. It’s only November, and already there are mock drafts being held, magazines being written and edited, and prognosticators gearing up for 2014. 2013 is in the past, and we should stop thinking about it.

There is something to be said for this philosophy. And yet, there is also something to be said for looking back at what happened last year, seeing what happened, examining what went right and what went wrong, and looking for trends that might help us in the future.

Analysts in a variety of fields do it all the time. Looking back at what happened last year offers us something that we cannot get by merely looking ahead: a vast amount of useful data. What happened this year will not happen next year. However, last year’s numbers do provide us with a foundation for understanding what could happen based on the data we have at our disposal.

Where some analysts look at statistics, I’m far more interested in how owners spent their (hypothetical) fantasy dollars. Are we spending our money wisely in fantasy auctions? Is there anything that can be gleaned from our spending habits in fantasy baseball that can improve our gaming performance next year? What does 2013 tell us?

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<< Previous Article
Premium Article Prospects Will Break Y... (11/18)
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Fantasy Article Fantasy Bargains and B... (11/21)
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Premium Article Minor League Update: I... (11/19)

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