CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Prospects Will Break Y... (11/04)
<< Previous Column
BP Unfiltered: Rereadi... (11/04)
Next Column >>
BP Unfiltered: Rereadi... (11/06)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Team Preview: ... (11/05)

November 5, 2013

BP Unfiltered

Rereading Nate Silver: 2. Collusion

by Sam Miller


In which Nate Silver forages through newspaper archives, and concludes that his first article in BP probably concluded with a mistake.

The 1987 Free Agent Market
Jan. 14, 2003

Abstract: At readers’ request, Nate fact-checks his previous claim that an efficient market—where salaries are strongly correlated to performance—is evidence against collusion. The statistical evidence is mixed, inconclusive, but Nate reverses course and realizes that statistical evidence wasn’t required. Looking at the individual cases at the time, he shows that collusion was remarkably obvious at the time; compared to 2003, when there were whispers from players about collusion, 1987 saw owners broadcasting collusion at 180 decibels. “Far from being a well-kept secret to be revealed only years later, collusion was pervasive, profound, and explicit.”

Key quote: “Indeed, after further consideration, I'm not so certain that my proposition (competitive labor market = efficient labor market) is correct, even in theory. Teams differ in the way that they assess a player's value. For that reason, it is certainly true that a market with a greater number of bidders does a better job, on the average, of performing that assessment accurately. The problem is that a player's salary is not determined in accordance with the average assessment of his talent. It is determined, rather, in accordance with the most favorable assessment of his talent. (This phenomenon has a name, the winner's curse, that is apropos to baseball). A player need only accept one free agent bid, and more often than not, he's going to accept the one that pays him the most. The really absurd contracts in recent memory - Darren Dreifort, Mike Hampton, Jay Bell - all came in highly competitive markets in which a single owner had an unreasonably favorable view of the player in question.”

Spent The Next Hour Curiously Googling: “Bob Horner” + Japan; “Player Relations Committee” + “Long Term Contracts” + 1985; “Jay Bell” + Years + Millions.

Tables: 3
Graphs: 1
Equations: none, besides allusions to previously used equations

On The Nate Silver Must-Read Scale: 2

Sam Miller is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Sam's other articles. You can contact Sam by clicking here

1 comment has been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Prospects Will Break Y... (11/04)
<< Previous Column
BP Unfiltered: Rereadi... (11/04)
Next Column >>
BP Unfiltered: Rereadi... (11/06)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Team Preview: ... (11/05)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Playoff Spotlight: Joe Pa...
Premium Article An Agent's Take: The Losses You Never Get Ov...
Premium Article Raising Aces: Brandon Finnegan, the Debut An...
Premium Article Pitching Backward: First-Pitching to the Sit...
Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: A Three-Act Tragedy, A T...
Pebble Hunting: The Best Teams Should Make T...
Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: World Series Preview: Gi...

MORE FROM NOVEMBER 5, 2013
Painting the Black: The 50 Best Free Agents ...
Premium Article Overthinking It: Brad Ausmus and Cementing t...
Premium Article Prospect Debate: Correa vs. Springer
Baseball ProGUESTus: Everything You Always W...
Premium Article Minor League Update: AFL Recap for Games of ...
Fantasy Article Fantasy Team Preview: Houston Astros

MORE BY SAM MILLER
2013-11-06 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 3...
2013-11-06 - BP Unfiltered: Rereading Nate Silver: 3. Bre...
2013-11-05 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 3...
2013-11-05 - BP Unfiltered: Rereading Nate Silver: 2. Col...
2013-11-04 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: Your New Favorite Player
2013-11-04 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 3...
2013-11-04 - BP Unfiltered: Rereading Nate Silver: 1. GMs...
More...

MORE BP UNFILTERED
2013-11-13 - BP Unfiltered: Rereading Nate Silver: 6. Inj...
2013-11-07 - BP Unfiltered: Rereading Nate Silver: 4. Pit...
2013-11-06 - BP Unfiltered: Rereading Nate Silver: 3. Bre...
2013-11-05 - BP Unfiltered: Rereading Nate Silver: 2. Col...
2013-11-04 - BP Unfiltered: Rereading Nate Silver: 1. GMs...
2013-10-25 - BP Unfiltered: Scouting the Draft: Quick Hit...
2013-10-16 - BP Unfiltered: Advance Scouting Series Compi...
More...