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November 5, 2013

Prospect Debate

Correa vs. Springer

by Jason Parks and BP Prospect Staff


When we started the Astros farm system discussion, I thought I’d kick off the process by asking a basic yet profound question: Can we make a case that George Springer is a better prospect than Carlos Correa? Regardless of my personal lean, I wanted to craft a convincing argument for both sides, and encourage a deeper debate on the merits of the two players in question. The following is part of our email exchange on the subject, including quotes from scouts and front office members, whose names and affiliations have been redacted for their protection. This is how the sausage is made.

Jason Parks: Let's debate. Can we make a case for Springer over Correa? I'm not sold yet, but as [redacted] and I were discussing, Springer is a low-risk, middle-of-the-diamond player with power and speed. Correa has the higher
ceiling and the higher risk, and it’s not a given that he sticks up the
middle.

Nick Faleris: I'd like to argue against Springer over Correa, but I can't given Springer's season and the fact I so vocally doubted him entering the year. I think Correa is ultimately the better major leaguer, but Springer is basically ready to start trying to contribute, and the profile is up the middle. We'll see how it actualizes.

I guess I'll ask the question: Should we kick around Appel over Correa? I think Appel has some non-physical impediments to reaching his ceiling, but I'd listen to someone who wants to argue there is value in his proximity to the majors. Personally, I think his Midwest League showings were echoes of 2012, and that kept me coming back to questioning whether he has the requisite "fuck you" in him to be a true impact arm.

I am moving back toward Correa ending up at third base, but I'm a believer in the power coming on strong over the next two years.


I still lean bullpen for McCullers, but for me the stuff is above Velasquez, as is the overall profile. The fastball/breaking ball is really, really impressive for Lance and he maintained his stuff much better over the season than I expected him to. Only three HR allowed all year, to boot.

Chris Mellen: I'm more apt to go with Correa over Springer if we think he is going to be the better major-league player. The realistic role reads to me that it is factoring in some amount of risk toward not reaching his ultimate ceiling. Obviously, Correa's risk is high, but we wouldn't be ranking him so high to begin with if there wasn't some level of confidence that he's going to reach the majors in some capacity.

Correa's realistic role can be lower right now, like a 5, due to the present gap to get to a 7 and risk. I'd see that as a basis for Springer being higher. As presented, I would say that Correa is projecting as at the least Springer's equal and better on ultimate potential.

[Redacted]: Correa for me by wide margin. Might be best player in game in 3 years and no doubt for me that he plays SS. Only guy on his level is Baez of Cubs.

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Related Content:  Prospects,  Scouting,  Houston Astros,  Minor Leagues

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<< Previous Article
Baseball ProGUESTus: E... (11/05)
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