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October 4, 2013

Playoff Prospectus

ALDS Game One Recap: Red Sox 12, Rays 2

by Zachary Levine


“Myers” was the name they chanted, because it was easy. It’s two syllables, and that’s a good place to start. And Wil Myers had the most embarrassing play of the Devil Rays’ brief and sudden return to existence in the fourth inning Friday.

He went back on a loud but ordinary David Ortiz fly ball, heard footsteps from Desmond Jennings, and let it drop. Before too long—or after an eternity to Myers – the Red Sox had turned a two-run deficit into a three-run lead and were on the way to a 12-2 bludgeoning in Game 1 of their Division Series at Fenway Park.

It’s easy to put Myers on the hook for that five-run explosion, but the defense all around was atrocious, and Matt Moore was hit around a bit by the league’s best offense, which has been known to do this from time to time. You can actually come up with just how much of this was Myers.

Had Myers been able to make the routine catch, the Red Sox would have had a runner on first and one out, which according to our run expectancy matrix results in .4934 runs per inning. Drop it, and it’s 1.866 runs expected with second and third with no outs, a difference of about 1.37 runs. Granted, that’s for an average lineup and situation, which doesn’t describe the Red Sox order in a playoff game at Fenway Park.

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Related Content:  Boston Red Sox,  Wil Myers,  Tampa Bay Rays

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<< Previous Article
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Next Article >>
Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: NL... (10/04)

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