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September 30, 2013
by Craig Goldstein and Bret Sayre
Rays (David Price) vs. Rangers (Martin Perez) – 8:07 p.m. ET
PECOTA Odds of Winning: Rays 65.3 percent, Rangers 34.7 percent
Rays vs. Perez (L)
Rangers vs. Price (L)
Zobrist, 2B (S)
Kinsler, 2B (R)
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10 comments have been left for this article.
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The game's at 8pm Eastern
My mistake. We'll get that fixed.
I see David Price putting the team on his shoulders and carrying them this game
Good call, Dale.
I just don't trust Price to get it done this time. Despite what PECOTA says and despite their history of choking, I like the Rangers' chances in this game. However, I think the Rays have a better chance of going deep into the playoffs if they take care of business against the Rangers.
What a laugh, let me know ANYBODY other than PECOTA who thinks Texas is a 2-1 underdog in this game. Price's history against the Rangers alone is enough that the odds ought to be 2-1 the other way.
Can't wait for another MLB postseason in which every matchup is won by the team I want to lose.
Yeah, there's something seriously flawed with PECOTA if it's predicting a 65.2% TB win percentage. The no-vig market at the sharpest sportsbooks in the world has the odds around TB 52.5%, and there's no way MLB betting markets are so inefficient that 13% inefficiencies exist.
Well sure, but sportsbooks are designed to get the most money, not to pick the team they think will win, so if the public perception is wrong then they'll play to that.
I'm not PECOTA expert, but I'd remind us that it has a very long memory, so Price's consistent excellence likely factors into the weighting of the advantage, versus Perez's up and down limited time in the majors. Perhaps it discounts Price's personal history against Texas when it shouldn't, but perhaps it's right to disregard a very good pitchers history against a team that might be fundamentally different from one that he's faced in the past.
No, that's a common misconception. Sports markets in major sports on high profile games are extremely efficient. A sharp sportsbook that will take large bets can't simply offer a mispriced line to trap suckers because the sharp bettors and groups will simply gobble up the other side. Inefficiencies do exist, but not to the tune of 13%. If there was truly a 13% inefficiency and something that was posted publicly identified that inefficiency, you can be certain that it would be reflected in the market.
If you really don't believe 13% inefficiencies exist in MLB, you're not trying hard/intelligently enough. Source: 15 years of betting baseball.
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