CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Premium and Super Premium Subscribers Get a 20% Discount at MLB.tv!

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Raising Aces: A Taxono... (09/27)
<< Previous Column
Pebble Hunting: Pedro ... (09/23)
Next Column >>
Pebble Hunting: The Se... (10/10)
Next Article >>
Premium Article What You Need to Know:... (09/27)

September 27, 2013

Pebble Hunting

The Hypotheses That Require Revisiting

by Sam Miller


One option would be to just stay quiet for six months, wait until the season is over, and dump 9,000 articles on you all at once. But the other option is to write things with incomplete data, acknowledge the incompleteness, note that that data are interesting, compelling, suggestive or freaky, and revisit it later when you remember.

We try to do the latter. Here are a few things to revisit from the first few weeks of the season or just before the season.

Piece: Stolen bases are missing! Where are the stolen bases? Somebody find the stolen bases!

Gist: After years of stolen base rates rising, seemingly correlated to the drop in league-wide offense, leaguewide stolen base attempts plummeted in April. Various explanations were tested and found wanting. An honest-to-goodness mystery.

Since then: At the time, the league was attempting to steal .69 times per game; since then, teams have averaged .83 steals per game. That’s still down a bit from the previous two seasons (.89 and .93 attempts per game), which is still a little interesting considering the direction the league seemed to be going, but it’s right in line with 2006-2010. Shoot, if Billy Hamilton had been up the entire season and stolen 276 bases, like I assume he would have, then the average would be a perfect match for 2012! The likelihood that this was just a small sample size fluke seemed to be (statistically) low, until every other explanation failed, at which point the likelihood that this was just a small sample size fluke seemed to be very high. And that’s just what it probably was.

Piece: First basemen are missing! Where are the first basement? Somebody find the first basemen!

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

3 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Raising Aces: A Taxono... (09/27)
<< Previous Column
Pebble Hunting: Pedro ... (09/23)
Next Column >>
Pebble Hunting: The Se... (10/10)
Next Article >>
Premium Article What You Need to Know:... (09/27)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of Tuesday, Augus...
Premium Article What You Need to Know: August 20, 2014
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Red Sox Place Their Be...
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Being Wrong About Yovani ...
Fantasy Article They Hold No Quarter: Second Basemen
The Lineup Card: Sevin Epitaphs for Bud Seli...
Moonshot: The Analytic Value of the Crack of...

MORE FROM SEPTEMBER 27, 2013
Premium Article Overthinking It: Mariano Rivera's Final Four...
Premium Article What You Need to Know: A Bronx Goodbye
Premium Article Raising Aces: A Taxonomy of Pitcher Triples
The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, September 2...
Fantasy Article Fantasy Fool's Gold: American League Startin...
Premium Article Daily Roundup: Around the League: September ...

MORE BY SAM MILLER
2013-10-02 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 2...
2013-10-01 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 2...
2013-09-30 - BP Unfiltered: Michael Cuddyer's Ink Is Blac...
2013-09-27 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: The Hypotheses That Require ...
2013-09-27 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 2...
2013-09-26 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 2...
2013-09-25 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 2...
More...

MORE PEBBLE HUNTING
2013-11-04 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: Your New Favorite Player
2013-10-23 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: What To Talk About When the ...
2013-10-10 - Pebble Hunting: The Season in Pain
2013-09-27 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: The Hypotheses That Require ...
2013-09-23 - Pebble Hunting: Pedro Hernandez and the Rash...
2013-09-20 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: Attacking Andrew McCutchen
2013-09-18 - Pebble Hunting: Why Koji Uehara?
More...