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February 13, 2014

Feature Focus

PECOTA Weighted Means Spreadsheet

by Colin Wyers

Note: this piece was originally published on July 11, 2013.

Welcome back to another installment of Feature Focus! I’m your host, Richard Kiley. (We spared no expense.) This week, I want to talk to you about the PECOTA Weighted Means Spreadsheet.

To download the PECOTA Weighted Means spreadsheet, simply go to the Fantasy dropdown on the navbar at the top of any BP page:

If you’re a BP subscriber (you are a subscriber, aren’t you?) that link will download an Excel spreadsheet. The most common way to open those is with Microsoft Excel. If you don’t have Excel, however, there are several alternatives:

  • You can download the free Excel Viewer for Windows.
  • Users of Mac OS X v10.7 (Lion) and newer can use Preview, which comes preinstalled
  • You can download one of several free Excel-compatible spreadsheet programs, like Gnumeric, LibreOffice, and OpenOffice
  • You can import the spreadsheet into Google Docs or Office Web Apps and view it in your web browser.

The first sheet is an informational page, containing the latest date updated, the copyright notice, information about the playing time forecasts and a link to the PECOTA glossary. For players who are in the depth charts (that is, expected to play in MLB), we use their Depth Charts forecast from the moment the spreadsheet was published; all other players have automated playing time forecasts based on their past playing time, both major and minor league. This means that summing values out of the PECOTA spreadsheet will vastly outstrip the amount of playing time we actually expect in MLB for the season; if you want team totals, you need to use only the values for players who are in the depth charts (which will have a “T” in the DC_FL column in their respective sheet).

The next sheet contains hitter forecasts. Several columns are links; you can click on a player’s BPID to view his player card, his team to view the team’s Depth Chart page, or his MLBCODE to visit the player’s page at MLB.com. The spreadsheet also displays a player’s official stats, and several rate stats computed from those. Please bear in mind that the rate stats are rounded separately from the counting stats, so a player’s hit totals may not reconcile exactly with his listed batting average, for instance. We also show the key value stats we use for hitters at BP—True Average, Baserunning Runs, FRAA, VORP and WARP. Then come the PECOTA diagnostics, based on the percentiles.

Much like the hitters sheet, the pitchers sheet contains hyperlinks for player cards and the team’s Depth Chart page. We have a variety of official (and essentially official, like Quality Start) stats, along with our value stats and PECOTA diagnostics. If you're wondering about projections of rest-of-season performance, you can find those on the player cards.

That’s all for this week. Have requests for additional PECOTA spreadsheet features? Or have a feature at BP you’d like to see highlighted? Leave a comment below.

Colin Wyers is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Colin's other articles. You can contact Colin by clicking here

Related Content:  PECOTA,  Projections,  Feature Focus

26 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

Josh Engleman

I know this isn't necessarily the best place to ask this question, but it is of similar nature. Are the Raw CSV's on the PFM essentially updates of this PECOTA sheet but for the rest of the season?

The reason I ask is that Yasiel Puig has the highest TAv in that RAW CSV (.332) [Miguel Cabrera is .332 for reference]. That seems incredibly wrong so I just assumed I am wrong.

Jul 11, 2013 05:42 AM
rating: 0
 
Deech

This was my question as well. If you guys could have an article explaining the rest of season projections on the PFM thatd be great. Is it just PECOTA running new everyday or what?

Jul 11, 2013 07:52 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Colin Wyers
BP staff
 
Josh Engleman

So what exactly is driving the "Puig is the best hitter in baseball" projection? This feels like a Wieters-ish issue.

Jul 11, 2013 08:45 AM
rating: 0
 
Deech

thanks for the link, I don't mind the crazy Puig projection. Weiter's didn't work out, but sometimes you need to make a bold prediction because big debuts happen.

Jul 11, 2013 08:53 AM
rating: 0
 
Josh Engleman

No.

Jul 11, 2013 10:00 AM
rating: -1
 
Grizpin

The sheet is dated 3/28. Is there supposed to be an updated sheet for the second half?

Jul 11, 2013 06:05 AM
rating: 0
 
newsense

Spreadsheets with percentiles would be nice. You could have separate spreadsheets for the 90th percentile, 70th percentile, etc.

Jul 11, 2013 12:47 PM
rating: 0
 
EthanSpalding

RIP Colin

Feb 13, 2014 05:58 AM
rating: 1
 
kvamlnk

"Then come the PECOTA diagnostics, based on the percentiles."

Some further explanation could help. Is IMPROVE relative to the Pecota projection or some sort of recent career average? (the rookies all seem to have low IMPROVE scores)

Is (Breakout - Collapse) a reasonable proxy for upside?

Feb 13, 2014 07:37 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

They're relative to production over the past five years (weighted). TAv for hitters, FRA for pitchers.

Feb 13, 2014 07:41 AM
 
ThatRogue

What happened to the percentiles? I thought they used to be listed on the player pages, but I can't seem to find them anymore.

Feb 13, 2014 07:51 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

Not there yet. They will be.

Feb 13, 2014 07:52 AM
 
therealn0d

I'm being denied access, and, needless to say, it isn't making me happy.

Feb 13, 2014 12:25 PM
rating: -1
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

Denied access to the spreadsheet?

Feb 13, 2014 13:46 PM
 
FlemSnopes

I get a "resource can't be located" message when I click on the spreadsheet link.

Feb 14, 2014 04:53 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

It's accessible again now.

Feb 14, 2014 06:21 AM
 
pobothecat

For spreadsheet novices --- avoid Open Office. The HELP section is virtual garble. And different enough from Excel that the web's bounty of free Excel tutorial material will be almost useless to you.

Instead try Kingsoft Office. Absolutely free, clean interface, good HELP, attractive to the eye.

http://www.kingsoftstore.com/

Feb 14, 2014 22:05 PM
rating: 0
 
pobothecat

If you're so new to spreadsheets that you need a remedial-level explanation of what they're about just to get you grounded, read the Google Spreadsheet HELP section. It's a five minute read and THE starting point for raw beginners.

Feb 14, 2014 22:10 PM
rating: 0
 
tjgrons

When you download the spreadsheet is there a rhyme or reason to the order? Because I see top players at the top mixed with mediocre players. Sorry if this is a stupid question.

Feb 16, 2014 02:02 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

Each tab should be in descending order of projected WARP.

Feb 16, 2014 04:03 AM
 
Troncone

The spreadsheet I just downloaded says 3/28/2013 on top.

Mar 18, 2014 20:32 PM
rating: 0
 
Troncone

And now it says "Directory access is forbidden"

Mar 18, 2014 20:33 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

Are you a Premium subscriber? (The spreadsheet isn't accessible to monthly subscribers.) If so, how are you trying to download it?

Mar 18, 2014 20:36 PM
 
man656

I am looking for the 2011, 2012, and 2013 PECOTA Spreadsheet Releases that came out at the beginning of the respective year...Are those available anywhere?

Feb 22, 2015 08:18 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member BP Customer Service
BP staff

Hi, Michael. Yes, BP Customer Service is glad to help you and we sent you a follow up email. Thanks for your support of Baseball Prospectus.

Feb 22, 2015 11:37 AM
 
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Premium Article Prospects Will Break Y... (02/12)
<< Previous Column
Feature Focus: Sortabl... (08/28)
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