CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Premium Article The Call-Up: Grant Gre... (07/08)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Tra... (07/09)

July 8, 2013

The Top 50 Fantasy Prospects

Midseason Update

by Bret Sayre

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

What can three months teach us about the landscape of talent in the minor leagues? Most of the time, that short span teaches us not to overrate three months of performance. For example, if you had jumped off the Shelby Miller bandwagon at midseason last year, when he had an ERA of around 6.00 in the Pacific Coast League, you probably had a tough time squeezing back onto it when he turned things around. Then again, this isn’t specific to just three months worth of performance—the top of prospect lists are littered with players who had down years and were soured on. Eric Hosmer had a terrible 2009 campaign in Low-A before reestablishing himself as a stud the following season. Wil Myers had an extremely disappointing 2011 season, which caused his prospect star to dim.

And that’s without even getting into the players whose promise wanes without any good reason other than time. As we’ve become more aware of the minor leagues in general, the concept of “prospect fatigue” has taken center stage—and it’s only gotten worse with Mike Trout and Bryce Harper exploding into our consciousness at such a young age. It’s simple: The longer a player remains on the prospect scene, the easier it is to gloss over his talent. You don’t just see this with post-hype prospects like Domonic Brown, Julio Teheran, and Martin Perez (all top-10 talents at one point), but you see it with current members of this list. It’s starting to happen to Billy Hamilton and Jonathan Singleton. The climb for prospects is never one that is straight uphill—and just because a certain player’s stock is down from a fantasy standpoint, that doesn’t mean that the “next big thing” has more value.

First, there are a few disclaimers specific to the prospect list to go over before we jump in. Again, these rankings are for fantasy purposes only and do not directly take into account things like an outfielder’s ability to stick in center or a catcher’s pop time. Of course, these things do matter indirectly, as they affect a player’s ability to either stay in the lineup or maintain eligibility. So, while Austin Hedges may be a top-20 prospect on BP’s Top 101, this is due in large part to his defensive value, and you’ll see that he’s not on this list because his upside isn’t nearly as great for fantasy. They are also measured for a reasonably deep mixed league (15-16 teams) with standard rotisserie settings. That means if you’re in a 10-team league, the big risk/reward prospects should get a bump in value—with the safer prospects getting more of a bump in a single-league or 20-team mixed format.

Additionally, home parks need to be factored in, just as they are when we discuss the fantasy merits of major-league players. Since A.J. Burnett’s fantasy potential increased greatly when he went from New York to Pittsburgh, we can’t pretend that these prospects operate in a vacuum, unaffected by park factors. Of course, there’s no guarantee that they will reach the majors with their current organizations, so although present teams are reflected in the rankings, they are not a heavy consideration. Most importantly, the intention of this list is to balance the upside, probability, and proximity of these players to an active fantasy lineup.

Finally, with the ambiguity of mid-season eligibility hanging over our heads, I decided to remove all players who are currently in their future roles at the major-league level. That means no Gerrit Cole, Zack Wheeler, or Wil Myers, even though they all still technically have prospect eligibility. I also did not rank players like Tyler Skaggs or Trevor Bauer, who, despite still having eligibility, are more known commodities at the major-league level. And finally, I am only including 2013 draft picks that have officially signed, which is why Kris Bryant isn’t on the list. If he had signed, he’d be right inside the back end of the top-20.

Within the list below, in addition to the write-ups, you’ll find important information about each prospect, including his potential fantasy value (in dollars) at his peak and the risk factor associated with his reaching that peak. Also, you will find a fantasy overview, which summarizes how many categories each player will be useful in, along with any fantasy that carry impact potential. For this exercise, we defined “impact” as having the potential to be in the top 15 to 20 players in a given category. For instance, hitters with 30-homer potential are considered “impact” performers in that department, while pitchers can earn the strikeout distinction by flashing the stuff necessary to whiff 200 batters in a season. And finally, you’ll see a quick summary of what’s changed since the pre-season Top 100 list was put out in early March.

So without any further ado, here are your top 50 fantasy prospects, as of the halfway mark of the 2013 season:

1) Oscar Taveras, OF, St Louis Cardinals (Age: 21, ETA: Late 2013, Preseason Rank: 2)

Potential Earnings: $35+ Risk Factor: Low

Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, HR, RBI

What has changed: Not much. Taveras is still the best hitter in the minor leagues, despite missing time this season with a lingering ankle injury. And don’t lose sight of the fact that he just turned 21 years old in late June.

2) Xander Bogaerts, SS, Boston Red Sox (Age: 20, ETA: 2014, Preseason Rank: 5)

Potential Earnings: $35+ Risk Factor: Low

Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in HR, RBI

What has changed: He’s getting closer. And for those of you who were worried about his 21-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in a small Double-A sample last year (even though I told you not to be), he’s at 68-to-47 across both levels of the upper minors this season. And he’s even thrown in a career-high seven steals.

3) Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins (Age: 19, ETA: 2015, Preseason Rank: 18)

Potential Earnings: $35+ Risk Factor: High

Fantasy Potential: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, R, SB

What has changed: Everything. Buxton has exploded into everyone’s consciousness this year, and has the highest upside of any player on this list. And when I say upside, I mean that he has the tools to match the stat line of Mike Trout’s 2012 season. His risk factor has also decreased, as he’s nowhere near as raw as he was advertised to be coming out of the draft.

4) Miguel Sano, 3B, Minnesota Twins (Age: 20, ETA: 2014, Preseason Rank: 11)

Potential Earnings: $30-35 Risk Factor: Medium

Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in HR, RBI

What has changed: You may notice that the “OF” dropped off his headline, which is potentially the biggest boon to his fantasy value. The reports have shifted from Sano being a liability at the hot corner to a potential above-average defender. If he sticks at third base, which seems likely at this point, his still-insane power will be much more valuable.

5) Billy Hamilton, OF/SS, Cincinnati Reds (Age: 22, ETA: Late 2013, Preseason Rank: 3)

Potential Earnings: $35+ Risk Factor: High

Fantasy Overview: Three-category contributor; Impact potential in R, SB

What has changed: The risk. Stealing 80 bases again in the minors is great and all, but when it comes with an on-base percentage around .300 in Triple-A, some chinks in the armor start to show. He can still be plenty valuable as a bottom-of-the-order speedster, but that’s not what we were hoping for coming into the year. There’s still plenty of time for him to turn this around though, so let’s not rush to label him a faster Dee Gordon.

6) Javier Baez, SS, Chicago Cubs (Age: 20, ETA: 2015, Preseason Rank: 16)

Potential Earnings: $35+ Risk Factor: High

Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, HR, RBI

What has changed: Absolutely nothing. Baez is still showing off all of the tools you would want for fantasy purposes, and he’s still showing the same plate-discipline issues that have followed him around since being drafted. His big test will come in Double-A, where he was promoted last week. The upside here is second only to Buxton’s.

7) Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (Age 20, ETA: 2014, Preseason Rank: 30)

Potential Earnings: $30-35 Risk Factor: Medium

Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in W, K, ERA, WHIP

What has changed: An improvement in control has moved Bradley up to top-pitching-prospect-in-the -game territory, and it’s been staggering enough that he may even see major-league time before the end of this season. He’s been nothing short of dominant all season long.

8) Taijuan Walker, RHP, Seattle Mariners (Age: 20, ETA: 2014, Preseason Rank: 13)

Potential Earnings: $30-35 Risk Factor: Medium

Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in W, K, ERA, WHIP

What has changed: The tools translated into performance for Walker in his return trip to Double-A, and he’s carried it with him into Triple-A as well. And while it may feel like he’s been around for a while now, Walker is actually a few days younger than Archie Bradley.

9) Christian Yelich, OF, Miami Marlins (Age: 21, ETA: Late 2013, Preseason Rank: 23)

Potential Earnings: $25-30 Risk Factor: Low

Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, R, RBI

What has changed: A lowered risk factor. Despite missing most of June with an abdominal injury, Yelich has built off his strong spring and more than held his own in Double-A. And don’t let the middling batting average fool you; Yelich still has one of the strongest hit tools in the minor leagues.

10) Gregory Polanco, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates (Age: 21, ETA: 2014, Preseason Rank: 46)

Potential Earnings: $30-35 Risk Factor: Medium

Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, SB, R

What has changed: He’s no one-year wonder. There’s always a risk with guys who have surprisingly strong full-season debuts, but Polanco has followed it up by being even better across High-A and Double-A. He could be a slightly-more-valuable version of his future teammate and outfield partner, Starling Marte.

11) Carlos Correa, SS/3B, Houston Astros (Age: 18, ETA: 2016, Preseason Rank: 17) – Link

Potential Earnings: $35+ Risk Factor: Extreme

Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in HR, RBI

What has changed: He’s more than living up to expectations, but he has been overshadowed by the Buxton Show. Last time I checked, an 18-year old shortstop with a .325/.416/.460 line in full-season ball is worthy of running up prospect lists, both fantasy and otherwise.

12) Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (Age: 21, ETA: 2014, Preseason Rank: 15)

Potential Earnings: $30-35 Risk Factor: Medium

Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in W, K, ERA, WHIP

What has changed: Just because Bradley has jumped ahead of him in the rankings doesn’t make what Taillon is doing this season any less impressive. He should still take his rightful place as the number two in the Pirates rotation behind Gerrit Cole in relatively short order.

13) George Springer, OF, Houston Astros (Age: 23, ETA: 2014, Preseason Rank: 35)

Potential Earnings: $30-35 Risk Factor: Medium

Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in HR, SB

What has changed: A lot. The concern coming into the season was that the high-octane offensive environment of Lancaster heavily influenced his numbers, but Springer is showing that he can hit plenty outside of the California League. He boasts one of the best power/speed combos in the minor leagues.

14) Nick Castellanos, OF/3B, Detroit Tigers (Age: 21, ETA: Late 2013, Preseason Rank: 19)

Potential Earnings: $25-30 Risk Factor: Low

Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, RBI

What has changed: After a bit of a slow start at Triple-A, Castellanos just continues to hit. In fact, in the month of June, he hit .361/.441/.583 with five homers, 16 walks, and only 13 strikeouts. Those plate-discipline numbers are a big deal for someone who had 76 strikeouts to 14 walks in 79 games at Double-A in 2012. But his move from third base to the outfield does lower his value slightly.

15) Kevin Gausman, RHP, Baltimore Orioles (Age: 22, ETA: Now, Pre-season Rank: 29)

Potential Earnings: $20-25 Risk Factor: Low

Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in W, K

What has changed: The hype from spring training turned out to be fully warranted, as Gausman earned a call up before Memorial Day. And he’s pitched much better in the majors than his 5.97 ERA would indicate; he also has a 3.7 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 3.61 xFIP.

16) Carlos Martinez, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals (Age: 21, ETA: Late 2013, Preseason Rank: 33)

Potential Earnings: $20-25 Risk Factor: Low

Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in K, ERA

What has changed: The likelihood of Martinez getting a real shot as a starter at the major-league level has increased, though his value remains buoyed by the fact that he could fail at that and still become an elite-level closer.

17) Addison Russell, SS, Oakland Athletics (Age: 19, ETA: 2015, Preseason Rank: 20)

Potential Earnings: $30-35 Risk Factor: High

Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in HR, RBI

What has changed: After an aggressive assignment to High-A, Russell struggled out of the gate. But he’s really turned it on over the last two months; since he took a trip to Lancaster on May 10, he’s hitting .304/.357/.569 with eight homers and nine steals in just 48 games. Yes, it is the Cal League, but Russell had also just finished high school at this time last year.

18) Jonathan Singleton, 1B, Houston Astros (Age: 21, ETA: Late 2013, Preseason Rank: 22)

Potential Earnings: $20-25 Risk Factor: Low

Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in HR, RBI

What has changed: Nothing. In a small sample since getting back up to Triple-A after his 50-game drug suspension (not the performance-enhancing type, unless you’re talking about downing tacos), Singleton has struggled. But all this is doing is pushing back his debut date—he still projects to be a very solid corner bat for fantasy.

19) Noah Syndergaard, RHP, New York Mets (Age 20, ETA: 2014, Preseason Rank: 38)

Potential Earnings: $25-30 Risk Factor: Medium

Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in W, K, ERA, WHIP

What has changed: He’s putting it all together. Not that his 2012 campaign wasn’t impressive, but he didn’t need much more than his 70-grade fastball to navigate the Midwest League. The fact that he’s been better this year shows you where he’s going. He remains a dark-horse candidate to be the best pitching prospect in the game at season’s end.

20) Dylan Bundy, RHP, Baltimore Orioles (Age: 20, ETA: 2015, Preseason Rank: 7)

Potential Earnings: $25-30 Risk Factor: Medium

Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in W, K, ERA, WHIP

What has changed: The surgery. But don’t freak out—even if Bundy is not back in the majors until the first half of 2015, he’ll still only be 22 years old. That’s how far ahead of the curve he was prior to going under the knife. Dealing Bundy for 60 cents on the dollar will likely come back to bite you. With force.

21) Travis d’Arnaud, C, New York Mets (Age: 24, ETA: Late 2013, Preseason Rank: 12)

Potential Earnings: $20-25 Risk Factor: Medium

Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor

What has changed: Very little, but it hasn’t been positive. He hasn’t shaken his reputation as injury-prone, mostly because he’s missed nearly the entire season due to a fracture in his left foot. But the potential is still there for d’Arnaud to be an upper level fantasy backstop, in the mold of Brian McCann.

22) Max Fried, LHP, San Diego Padres (Age: 19, ETA: 2015, Preseason Rank: 42)

Potential Earnings: $25-30 Risk Factor: High

Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in W, K, ERA, WHIP

What has changed: Nothing. Fried still has loads of fantasy potential in that left arm of his, and despite not putting up gaudy numbers in the Midwest League, he is still my pick to be the top fantasy pitching prospect in the game after the 2014 season.

23) Clint Frazier, OF, Cleveland Indians (Age: 18, ETA: 2016, Preseason Rank: NR)

Potential Earnings: $35+ Risk Factor: Extreme

Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, HR, RBI

What has changed: He got drafted. Frazier has the most fantasy upside of anyone in the 2013 draft, and while this is an aggressive ranking, his bat speed alone nearly warrants it. And the impact potential above may underrate his ability to add value on the base paths.

24) Gary Sanchez, C, New York Yankees (Age: 20, ETA: 2015, Preseason Rank: 44)

Potential Earnings: $25-30 Risk Factor: High

Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in HR, RBI

What has changed: Higher likelihood of positional eligibility. While Sanchez’s defense is still questionable, we don’t really care if he’s any good behind the plate for fantasy purposes, we just care that he’s there. He’s still a compressed version of Jesus Montero: less bat, more defense.

25) Mark Appel, RHP, Houston Astros (Age: 21, ETA: 2014, Preseason Rank: NR)

Potential Earnings: $20-25 Risk Factor: Medium

Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in W, ERA

What has changed: He got drafted. Again. Appel does a lot of things well, but I don’t think the package comes together to form a frontline fantasy pitcher. Then again, it’s not like we’re talking about another Luke Hochevar here.

26) Rymer Liriano, OF, San Diego Padres (Age: 22, ETA: 2015, Preseason rank: 56)

Potential Earnings: $25-30 Risk Factor: High

Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor

What has changed: Nothing, as he hasn’t played this year. Hasn’t lost any upside though.

27) Michael Wacha, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals (Age: 22, ETA: Late 2013, Preseason Rank: 63)

Potential Earnings: $15-20 Risk Factor: Low

Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in W, ERA, WHIP

What has changed: A rise in his fantasy floor and timetable. Not a jump in his ceiling.

28) Robert Stephenson, RHP, Cincinnati Reds (Age: 20, ETA: 2015, Preseason rank: 77)

Potential Earnings: $25-30 Risk Factor: High

Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in W, ERA, K

What has changed: He continues to build around that incredible fastball of his.

29) Jake Marisnick, OF, Miami Marlins (Age: 22, ETA: 2014, Preseason rank: 61)

Potential Earnings: $25-30 Risk Factor: High

Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor

What has changed: The power has taken a step forward as he has reached the Double-A level.

30) Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays (Age: 20, ETA: 2015, Preseason rank: 68)

Potential Earnings: $25-30 Risk Factor: High

Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in W, K, ERA, WHIP

What has changed: He’s continued to make his infielders work extra hard as he awaits a more challenging assignment.

31) Alen Hanson, SS/2B, Pittsburgh Pirates (Age: 20, ETA: 2015, Preseason rank: 39)

Potential Earnings: $25-30 Risk Factor: High

Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor

What has changed: Nothing. He’s still rising, just not as quickly as his fellow 2012 West Virginia standout, Gregory Polanco.

32) Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays (Age: 21, ETA: 2015, Preseason rank: 41)

Potential Earnings: $25-30 Risk Factor: High

Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in W, K, ERA

What has changed: His control is rounding into form without his stuff becoming any more hittable.

33) Yordano Ventura, RHP, Kansas City Royals (Age: 22, ETA: 2014, Preseason rank: 75)

Potential Earnings: $20-25 Risk Factor: Medium

Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in K, ERA

What has changed: His chances of being a starter (and a fine one at that) have increased.

34) Garin Cecchini, 3B, Boston Red Sox (Age: 22, ETA: 2015, Preseason rank: NR)

Potential Earnings: $20-25 Risk Factor: Medium

Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in SB

What has changed: His Invincibility Star hasn’t worn off yet.

35) Albert Almora, OF, Chicago Cubs (Age: 19, ETA: 2015, Preseason rank: 81)

Potential Earnings: $20-25 Risk Factor: Medium

Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor

What has changed: He’s been even better than advertised in his full-season debut.

36) Danny Hultzen, LHP, Seattle Mariners (Age: 23, ETA: Late 2013, Preseason rank: 37)

Potential Earnings: $15-20 Risk Factor: Low

Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor

What has changed: His unexpected control issues from last season and his shoulder issues from April appear to be things of the past.

37) Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians (Age: 19, ETA: 2015, Preseason rank: 59)

Potential Earnings: $20-25 Risk Factor: Medium

Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor

What has changed: His offensive ceiling continues to creep up as he advances.

38) Brian Goodwin, OF, Washington Nationals (Age: 22, ETA: 2014, Preseason rank: 34)

Potential Earnings: $25-30 Risk Factor: High

Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Potential impact in R, SB

What has changed: Hasn’t taken that next step forward, but still has all the tools in his shed.

39) Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (Age: 19, ETA: 2015, Preseason rank: NR)

Potential Earnings: $25-30 Risk Factor: High

Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Potential impact in W, K, ERA, WHIP

What has changed: Can’t stop striking Midwest League hitters out. It’s a good problem to have.

40) Dan Vogelbach, 1B, Chicago Cubs (Age: 20, ETA: 2016, Preseason rank: 67)

Potential Earnings: $25-30 Risk Factor: High

Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, HR, RBI

What has changed: There’s still heaven in Vogelbach’s bat.

41) Kyle Crick, RHP, San Francisco Giants (Age: 20, ETA: 2015, Preseason rank: 83)

Potential Earnings: $25-30 Risk Factor: High

Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in K, ERA

What has changed: He needs to cut down on his walks, but man can he miss bats.

42) Tyler Austin, OF, New York Yankees (Age: 21, ETA: 2014, Preseason rank: 58)

Potential Earnings: $20-25 Risk Factor: Medium

Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor

What has changed: A statistically disappointing season hasn’t put a damper on his potential value. He’s just not a star.

43) Mike Olt, 3B/1B, Texas Rangers (Age: 24, ETA: 2014, Preseason rank: 25)

Potential Earnings: $20-25 Risk Factor: Medium

Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor

What has changed: It’s been a disappointing season so far, but there’s time for him to turn it around.

44) Joc Pederson, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers (Age: 21, ETA: 2014, Preseason rank: NR)

Potential Earnings: $20-25 Risk Factor: Medium

Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor

What has changed: Quickly changing his reputation from a gamer to a gamer with tools and more upside than we thought.

45) Joey Gallo, 3B, Texas Rangers (Age: 19, ETA: 2016, Preseason rank: NR)

Potential Earnings: $25-30 Risk Factor: Extreme

Fantasy Overview: Three-category contributor; Impact potential in HR, RBI

What has changed: Twenty-six more homers. Twenty-five more singles.

46) Maikel Franco, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies (Age: 20, ETA: 2014, Preseason rank: NR)

Potential Earnings: $20-25 Risk Factor: High

Fantasy Overview: Three-category contributor; Impact potential in HR, RBI

What has changed: He’s breaking out, but don’t go too crazy. There’s still a lot of risk here.

47) Alex Meyer, RHP, Minnesota Twins (Age: 23, ETA: 2014, Preseason rank: 82)

Potential Earnings: $20-25 Risk Factor: High

Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in K

What has changed: Still chipping away at the bullpen tag. Not that it would be terrible for his fantasy value if he were a closer.

48) David Dahl, OF, Colorado Rockies (Age: 19, ETA: 2016, Preseason rank: 45)

Potential Earnings: $25-30 Risk Factor: Extreme

Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, R

What has changed: Very little, as he’s been out since April with a severe hamstring injury.

49) Kyle Zimmer, RHP, Kansas City Royals (Age: 21, ETA: 2014, Preseason Rank: 47)

Potential Earnings: $15-20 Risk Factor: Medium

Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in K, ERA, WHIP

What has changed: Struggling in High-A, but reports still remain mostly positive. Depending on which day you see him.

50) Bubba Starling, OF, Kansas City Royals (Age: 20, ETA: 2016, Preseason Rank: 51)

Potential Earnings: $30-35 Risk Factor: Double-Extreme

Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in HR, RBI, R, SB

What has changed: Still could be a future first-round fantasy pick. Still could flame out in Double-A.

Five More on the Verge: Corey Seager, Delino DeShields Jr., Julio Urias, Eddie Rosario, Lucas Giolito

Bret Sayre is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Bret's other articles. You can contact Bret by clicking here

50 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

azynkewl

SSS, Frazier is off to a great start, but for some reason he's missed a few games or been subbed out early. Any idea why?

Jul 08, 2013 03:58 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

He's been in the lineup pretty consistently, so I can't imagine it's anything major. He may just be getting back into baseball shape after an extended absence from games.

Jul 08, 2013 08:29 AM
 
DanDaMan
Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway.

Ownership under 20%, still in the minors- where die Erasmo go? Maybe I'm missing him somewhere.
Love these lists Bret, but it seems you've changed your thinking a bit on this one, no longer giving more weight to the guys who might be called up sooner. I mean some of these guys sound like they'll be great, but even in a 5 or 6 keeper league I couldn't hold on to someone who hasn't even had his first MLB game by the end of this season. In which case, what use would someone like Buxton be to me? Follow?

Jul 08, 2013 04:17 AM
rating: -12
 
Behemoth

This is a prospect list, not the stash list.

Jul 08, 2013 05:34 AM
rating: 1
 
SteveWhite

Buxton is a potential Mike Trout talent. That should have plenty of use for you.

Jul 08, 2013 06:43 AM
rating: 1
 
randolph3030

Nobody reads the intro.

Or the title, apparently.

Jul 08, 2013 06:51 AM
rating: 2
 
DanDaMan
Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway.

Wow. Holy snarkness. Excuse me for seeing Bret's name and mixing up prospect list and stash list! Just totally inexcusable I guess.

Jul 08, 2013 13:48 PM
rating: -6
 
Behemoth

Thanks for the list. A few surprises for me are the inclusions of Gallo and Starling. Very few prospects with their hitting issues ever make it, and even if they do, there is a question about if they make enough contact to stick. Gallo has 135Ks in 80-odd games at low-A - that's pretty horrific really.

Also wondered why Liriano had jumped so much despite not playing. It seems odd when others like Dahl were pretty static.

Jul 08, 2013 04:56 AM
rating: 0
 
Behemoth

Oh, and the other one that I forgot. I think Hultzen is out again with more shoulder issues - just for a couple of weeks at the moment, but I wouldn't assume that everything is good yet.

Jul 08, 2013 05:51 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

They're both showing off the swing and miss in their game a plenty, but for fantasy, you can't ignore the upside, even if the risk is extreme. Like I say with these extreme risk guys, they're worth owning until they're not, and these two are definitely worth owning.

As far as Liriano, I'll be honest--I wanted to put him much higher on the pre-season list, but it was a collaboration. This is a better reflection of where I personally see his value sitting.

Jul 08, 2013 08:21 AM
 
grandslam28

what about raul mondesi V?

Jul 08, 2013 07:07 AM
rating: 1
 
timber

My guess is he projects to be more valuable to a real baseball team than to a fantasy team.

Jul 08, 2013 07:53 AM
rating: 0
 
Wyomissing

Mondesi could have a higher ceiling than Lindor. He's definitely one of the top 50 fantasy prospects in the minors.

Jul 08, 2013 08:25 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

Great prospect, and he would have made the list had it gone to 60, but he's just so far away and his fantasy upside is still up in the air. He has the potential to be a fast riser and a special player, but he may be a more valuable real-life guy than fantasy guy

Jul 08, 2013 08:23 AM
 
Matt Martin

Would like to know the reasoning behind Springer's ETA being 2014. I look at Springer's compelling AAA stats, albeit a small sample, and believe that the drums must be beating loud in Houston for his immediate promotion.

Jul 08, 2013 07:50 AM
rating: 1
 
Behemoth

Is there any need to promote now, rather than get an extra year of service time given that it will take the Astros a while to be competitive again?

Jul 08, 2013 08:01 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

I just don't see a great reason to rush him in Houston. He may very well get the call, which is why he's a recurring name on The Stash List, but I think the odds of him finishing the season with Triple-A is higher at this point.

Jul 08, 2013 08:25 AM
 
teaaker

Are people not buying Cesar Puello's season? Is it the BioGen link?

Jul 08, 2013 08:37 AM
rating: 2
 
amazin_mess

The most glaring omission, in my opinion, both here and at BA. I'm fairly certain he's being dinged because of Biogenesis, because on performance alone, he's an easy Top 50 guy.
I find it interesting, because most BB writers go out of their way to defend Ryan Braun, but a prospect's name appears on a list and its "guilty as charged." I don't understand the dichotomy.

Jul 08, 2013 10:27 AM
rating: -2
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

His absence from this list has absolutely nothing to do with the Biogenesis link. He's back on the radar, but I am not sold on either his hit tool or his power. There's no shame in ranking behind the outfielders towards the bottom of this list, and he would have made a top-75.

Jul 08, 2013 10:44 AM
 
amazin_mess

I remain deeply offended. ;-)

Jul 08, 2013 14:09 PM
rating: -1
 
amazin_mess

I'd love an explanation why you don't buy Puellos power, if its not about Biogenesis. His power dwarfs Tyler Austins and Christian Yelich.

Jul 09, 2013 12:04 PM
rating: -2
 
amazin_mess

Lol.....and now it looks like he's going to get suspended. Probably safe not to buy his power afterall.

Jul 09, 2013 19:14 PM
rating: -2
 
jonjacoby

What about Jackie Bradley? I know he was listed at #80 in the preseason, while he didn't impress in his first stint at Boston, he looked better in his short 2nd go-around. He seems like a high floor/ low ceiling guy.

Jul 08, 2013 08:40 AM
rating: 0
 
AciDjAzz

Jackie Bradley is more of a real life talent then a go fantasy guy, he's high on prospect lists because of his defense and glove, not because he's a real great hitter. And that was pretty noticeable in his cup of coffee with the big club

Jul 08, 2013 09:13 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

I agree with this comment. He's someone who will likely always be more valuable for the Sox than for his fantasy teams.

Jul 08, 2013 12:05 PM
 
bigchiefbc

My only counter to that is that his walks and doubles power (and being able to bang them off the Monster 81 games a year) will make him much more valuable in points leagues vs roto.

Jul 08, 2013 17:41 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

I don't disagree with that premise, but this list is designed for roto formats.

Jul 08, 2013 19:09 PM
 
DeathSpeculum

forget about Jorge soler? I know he broke his leg, but that shouldn't take him off the list completely, should it?

Jul 08, 2013 09:59 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

That was an omission on my part--not sure how he fell off my spreadsheet while I was making updates. He should be #22 right between d'Arnaud and Fried, with a $25-30 potential earnings and high risk.

Jul 08, 2013 11:36 AM
 
DeathSpeculum

also, if I may ask a second question - where would Bryant fit on this list, or where will he (assuming he signs)?

Jul 08, 2013 10:02 AM
rating: 0
 
DeathSpeculum

doh. back end of the top 20. ne'ermind. too many words at the top there.

Jul 08, 2013 10:03 AM
rating: 0
 
jumbodoug

No Soler?

Jul 08, 2013 10:18 AM
rating: 0
 
BirdlandPGH

I'm not sure I understand how Billy Hamilton can be ranked so high. Of what relative value are his stolen bases when he can barely get on base in the first place (in AAA, mind you)?

Jul 08, 2013 10:21 AM
rating: 0
 
jkropp13

How close was Jesse Winker to making the list? He seems like the kind of guy that will potentially be more valuable in fantasy than real life based on his suspect fielding.

Jul 08, 2013 10:38 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

He was certainly in the mix for the next group of 15-20 players. He's taken a step forward this year.

Jul 08, 2013 11:14 AM
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

The developmental process is not a straight line. Hamilton has the ability to get on base and win a category almost single-handedly. There's incredible value in that.

Jul 08, 2013 10:48 AM
 
mmg3327

Brett, are these ranking geared for Rotisserie leagues, Head to Head leagues, or both? I think the type of league affects Hamilton's value (i.e. I think his potential base stealing dominance matters more in Rotisserie scoring).

Jul 08, 2013 11:57 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

These are for rotisserie leagues, and yes it absolutely matters in Hamilton's case. He likely drops at least 15 spots if you're talking about a category H2H league, but those steals are gold in roto.

Jul 08, 2013 12:07 PM
 
eliyahu

Very curious about Kaleb Cowart. Is he going through a reasonable learning curve or has his stock really dropped?

Jul 08, 2013 10:50 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

No, it's a reasonable learning curve--but he was borderline top-50 guy last year, so being off this list isn't a huge knock on him. Still like his potential long-term.

Jul 08, 2013 11:37 AM
 
dr4sight

I was surprised to not see Wilmer Flores' name in the group. He's the same 21 yrs old as Taveras and his AAA stats (yes, he plays half his games in hitter haven Las Vegas) are every bit as good as your #1 guy.
Not saying that Wilmer should even make your list in the top 20 but not in the top 50? Hmmmm.

Jul 08, 2013 11:12 AM
rating: -1
 
dtothew

Wow. Just plain wow.

Jul 08, 2013 19:07 PM
rating: 2
 
delatopia

I doubt very highly that Wilmer Flores would make a top 100 list, let alone a top 50. Generally excels only when he repeats a level, doesn't look like he's going to post the roto-friendly stats like SB and HR ... I just don't see it.

Jul 08, 2013 23:09 PM
rating: 0
 
sp1012

This is his first season at AAA.

Jul 09, 2013 14:19 PM
rating: 0
 
LoyalRoyal

Thanks for the list. Interesting to compare this fantasy prospect list with Parks' prospect list. Great stuff.

Jul 08, 2013 20:28 PM
rating: 1
 
saigonsam

Wow, just 10 months past perhaps the most historic rookie season in the history of baseball, and we have our first comparison.

Jul 09, 2013 03:10 AM
rating: 1
 
mhmckay

No Rosell Herrera?

Jul 09, 2013 18:36 PM
rating: -1
 
BP staff member Bret Sayre
BP staff

Not yet. He's repeating the level and has defensive question marks. He's almost certainly a top 100 guy for fantasy purposes now, but I'm not jumping in head first on him. I need to see more before making him a top 50 guy.

Jul 10, 2013 09:55 AM
 
jkropp13

Did Micah Johnson get any consideration for the top 50?

Jul 10, 2013 10:08 AM
rating: 0
 
You must be a Premium subscriber to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!
<< Previous Article
Premium Article The Call-Up: Grant Gre... (07/08)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Tra... (07/09)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of Wednesday, May...
Premium Article Painting the Black: Stealing Signs
Fantasy Rounders: Statistical Crossroads
Eyewitness Accounts: May 28, 2015
Premium Article Pitching Backward: Started From the Bottom, ...
Premium Article The Call-Up: Eduardo Rodriguez
Premium Article Some Projection Left: Ask the Industry: Catc...

MORE FROM JULY 8, 2013
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: One Less Marlin, and a...
Premium Article Painting the Black: The Outside Man
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of Sunday, July 7
Premium Article What You Need to Know: The NL East Gets Inte...
Premium Article Daily Roundup: Around the League: July 8, 20...
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, July 8
The Week in Quotes: July 1-7

MORE BY BRET SAYRE
2013-07-11 - Premium Article The Call-Up: Sonny Gray
2013-07-11 - Fantasy Article Free Agent Watch: Week 15
2013-07-09 - Fantasy Article The Stash List: All Killer, No Filler
2013-07-08 - Fantasy Article The Top 50 Fantasy Prospects
2013-07-08 - Premium Article The Call-Up: Grant Green
2013-07-02 - Fantasy Article The Stash List: Remembering the Medlen Effec...
2013-06-29 - Fantasy Beat: Weekly #streameroftheday Updat...
More...


INCOMING ARTICLE LINKS
2015-05-18 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: In Search of the Next Joc...
2013-07-09 - Fantasy Article The Stash List: All Killer, No Filler