CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Futures Guide 2014 is Now Available in Paperback and Three E-book Formats.

Premium and Super Premium Subscribers Get a 20% Discount at MLB.tv!

<< Previous Article
Fantasy Article Bullpen Report: Movin'... (05/30)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Dissecting the Draft: ... (05/17)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Dissecting the Draft: ... (06/04)
Next Article >>
Premium Article What You Need to Know:... (05/30)

May 30, 2013

Dissecting the Draft

Examining Kris Bryant

by Nick J. Faleris


Since we first set out talent tiers for players in consideration for selection with the seventh overall pick in the draft, some significant events have affected the stock of two of our potential targets. We have also seen reporting that this draft class contains a unanimous “top 3”—a triumvirate that does not match up with our tiering. We’ll quickly address the shakeup in the tiers before devoting the bulk of this entry to a thorough examination of Kris Bryant—the “unanimous elite talent” that didn’t make the cut for our Tier One grouping.

Tiering Updates
There are two players whose tiering requires re-examination due to recent events. Below is a summary of each, including the events that have transpired and the impact on the player’s value.

Player: Sean Manaea, LHP, Indiana St. University
Event: Continues to struggle with health (including his ankle, hip and shoulder), quality of stuff.
Effect: Many evaluators familiar with Manaea prior to his dominant stint on the Cape have yet to see the player described to them by their East Coast brethren. While injuries this spring have limited his availability and ability, he has to show the consistent ability to throw his fastball and secondaries at a high level. The ceiling remains high, but there is too much risk at this point for him to remain in serious consideration for the seventh overall pick in the draft. He doesn’t fit the typical profile of someone willing to cut an under-slot deal, so he’s out of Tier Three as well. He will be considered as a second-rounder, should he be available at pick 45.

Player: Ryan Boldt, OF, Red Wing HS (Red Wing, MN)
Event: Torn meniscus; out of action through June.
Effect: Boldt remains one of the best center-field prospects in the draft class, but the injury (as well as his late-starting high school season) requires us to make an appraisal based primarily on last year’s looks and limited workouts last offseason. The injury itself doesn’t appear to be a long-term concern, but it does somewhat increase the drafting organization’s leverage. He remains in Tier Three for now, but he’s probably a better acquisition fit as an over-allotment signing in the second round than a money-saver in the top 10 overall. Provided we have satisfactory options once we’ve completed our Tier Two review, we are likely to cross Boldt off as a potential first-round target.

Entering today’s analysis, this is where our tier currently stand:

Tier One
1. Jonathan Gray, RHP, Oklahoma University | Scouting Report
2. Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford University | Scouting Report
3. Clint Frazier, OF, Loganvilee HS (Loganville, GA) | Scouting Report

Tier Two (Ranked)
1. Kohl Stewart, RHP, St. Pius X (Houston, TX)
2. Trey Ball, LHP, New Castle HS (New Castle, IN) | Scouting Report (LHP)

Tier Two (Unranked—alphabetical)
1. Kris Bryant, 3B, University of San Diego | Scouting Report
2. JP Crawford, SS, Lakewood HS (Lakewood, CA)
3. Jon Denney, C, Yukon HS (Yukon, OK)
4. Reese McGuire, C, Kentwood HS (Covington, WA)
5. Braden Shipley, RHP, University of Nevada
6. Dominic Smith, 1B/OF, Serra HS (Los Angeles, CA)
7. Ryne Stanek, RHP, University of Arkansas

Tier Three
1. Ryan Boldt, OF, Red Wing HS (Red Wing, MN)

Kris Bryant—Elite or No?
Much of the draft-related electronic ink spilled over the past few weeks has centered on a reported consensus that the 2013 draft class has seen three players emerge as the clear top three talents—Mark Appel, Jonathan Gray, and Kris Bryant. While Appel and Gray both fit in as elite talents in our tiers, Bryant ranks as a Tier Two target. It should be noted that no one expects Bryant to be available when we make our selection at seventh overall (myself included), so most of what we cover today is irrelevant to our actual decision-making come draft day. Still, I thought it important to address the discrepancy between my tiering and the widely reported “unanimous top three.” Plus, this an interesting topic for examination in its own right, and will hopefully spark your further interest in breaking down draft prospects from multiple angles.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

6 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Fantasy Article Bullpen Report: Movin'... (05/30)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Dissecting the Draft: ... (05/17)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Dissecting the Draft: ... (06/04)
Next Article >>
Premium Article What You Need to Know:... (05/30)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
The Call-Up: George Springer
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of Wednesday, Apr...
Premium Article Pebble Hunting: Every Manager's Face: The Ne...
Premium Article What You Need to Know: Cueto in Control
Premium Article What Scouts Are Saying: April 17, 2014
Premium Article Notes from the Field: Carolina League Notes ...
Overthinking It: Lessons We Learned Yesterda...

MORE FROM MAY 30, 2013
Premium Article What You Need to Know: Triple Threat
Fantasy Article Bullpen Report: Movin' on Up
Premium Article The Call-Up: Alex Wood
Premium Article The Call-Up: Alex Colome
Premium Article The Call-Up: Michael Wacha
Premium Article Daily Roundup: Around the League: May 30, 20...
Fantasy Article Free Agent Watch: American League, Week Nine

MORE BY NICK J. FALERIS
2013-06-05 - Premium Article Scouting the Draft: Pitchers to Know (Part 2...
2013-06-04 - Premium Article Dissecting the Draft: Pairing and Parsing 1-...
2013-06-03 - Premium Article Scouting the Draft: Pitchers to Know (Part 1...
2013-05-30 - Premium Article Dissecting the Draft: Examining Kris Bryant
2013-05-30 - BP Unfiltered: Dissecting the Draft: Kris Br...
2013-05-22 - Premium Article Scouting the Draft: Center Fielders to Know
2013-05-22 - Premium Article The Call-Up: Kevin Gausman
More...

MORE DISSECTING THE DRAFT
2013-06-07 - Premium Article Dissecting the Draft: Assessing Day 1, and D...
2013-06-06 - Premium Article Dissecting the Draft: Three Roads from Which...
2013-06-04 - Premium Article Dissecting the Draft: Pairing and Parsing 1-...
2013-05-30 - Premium Article Dissecting the Draft: Examining Kris Bryant
2013-05-17 - Premium Article Dissecting the Draft: Profiling Prep Arms
2013-05-10 - Premium Article Dissecting the Draft: Due Diligence
2013-05-06 - Premium Article Dissecting the Draft: Identifying Our Tiers
More...