CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Premium Article What You Need to Know:... (05/29)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Pebble Hunting: How Pi... (05/24)
Next Column >>
Pebble Hunting: Every ... (05/31)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Painting the Black: Th... (05/29)

May 29, 2013

Pebble Hunting

A Week of Watching Eric Hosmer

by Sam Miller

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

On Sunday, a baseball broadcaster informed me (and you and everyone we know) that a player on the Kansas City Royals entered the game 10 for his previous 28. “That’s a .357 average, so he’s coming,” I was told.

Eric Hosmer hasn’t done much this year, and his inability to take the great leap forward is a big reason why Kansas City’s go-for-it plan has disappointed thus far. But a .357 average, that’s pretty high, and if he’s coming, maybe the Royals would have something. It’s easy to buy into Eric Hosmer’s .357 average. It’s just easy to buy into Eric Hosmer, all the time, despite how long it’s been since he was good. He used to be so good, after all. And .357! Maybe that .357 means something.

So I went back and watched a week of Hosmer, from last Tuesday through Memorial Day. That stretch included most of that .357 average, and a couple other games. I wanted to block out what I know about Hosmer—12th overall prospect just 27 months ago, Rookie of the Year contender just 19 months ago, MVP sleeper just 14 months ago, etc.—and imagine that I’m watching a player who just appeared in my world without notice. What would I think about this player? How seriously would I take his potential? Would he stand out? And would that .357 do anything for me?

It’s hard to block out the backstory completely. Hosmer memories kept coming back to me. Furthermore, it’s hard to ding a guy’s swing without wanting to compare it to his swing from two years earlier, when he could hit, so I kept going back to him, too. (I’m also, of course, not a scout, so I’d caveat my impressions by noting that they’re impressions, not evidence.) But I tried.

So here’s what I thought of Eric Hosmer, random guy.

Power: Not evident. This is a hitter who was supposed to be Will Clark with power; we once wrote that “some scouts grade Hosmer's power a perfect 80,” which is true of maybe two players in the minors today. His isolated power this season is 10th lowest among 168 qualifiers, right between Pete Kozma (Hosmer is better) and Denard Span (Hosmer is worse :(). In the week that I watched him, he didn’t reach the warning track, and his lone extra-base hit was a line drive down the line the opposite way.

He’s got a clear other-way approach, and Royals announcers constantly say that’s where his power is. Seven of his 19 home runs as a rookie, and eight of 15 since, went to the left of center field. His best swings, it’s true, are on balls that he hits to left field or center field, but those swings—sturdier, more balanced—produce line drives more than any backspin or distance, and when he did hit fly balls to left field they were pop-ups, suggesting more that he was behind on the pitches than that he was aiming for the left-field seats.

If I'd never heard of Eric Hosmer, I would: compare this player's power to Casey Kotchman's, perhaps unfavorably.  

Plate discipline: He’s not a hacker, by any means, and in particular he seems to identify breaking pitches out of the zone quickly and lay off. Perhaps because of this, virtually nobody I saw in a week attacked him with sliders. But he’ll chase fastballs, particularly up, which dovetails nicely with pitchers’ plan against him: fastballs, particularly up.

He seems uncomfortable with all good fastballs, and it shows in his takes. When we spent a week with Manny Machado, I jokingly included Machado's “great taking indeed.” But hitters and hitting instructors genuinely do talk about how some takes are more encouraging than others—when a batter spots the error in the pitch early and takes it confidently. Hosmer was fidgety even when he was taking fastballs:

Watch his lower body, shifting directions at the last split second. He never looked quite certain of his decision to take, until the ball was past him. I picked up this vibe repeatedly. 

If I'd never heard of Eric Hosmer, I would: not have any opinions about this player's plate discipline. 

Hitting ability: The all-fields approach should provide singles and doubles. Hosmer squares up pitches in any part of the zone when he stays back, but has a tendency to jump at pitches and either jam himself on fastballs or roll over off-speed pitches in the zone. He got base hits on some lousy pitches, though those weren't generally impressive base hits. 

If I'd never heard of Eric Hosmer, I would: hope for David Segui but settle for Mark Sweeney

Swing: Hosmer’s swing looks balky to the untrained eye, and while this is true of plenty of good hitters—one of which Hosmer recent was!‚Äč—Hosmer's swing looks noticeably balkier than it did two seasons ago. Here’s a swing from 2011 matched up with one from this week. There’s an obvious bias here; the swing you’re seeing on the left led to a positive outcome, the more recent one to a negative outcome. But there are features here that are common to most of Hosmer's current swings: 

Hosmer has a bigger leg kick now than he used to. He invests a lot of energy into timing mechanisms, so it might be that this is about that, about trying to stay back on pitches. But it's also possible that he's trying to generate more power. (I have the same curious wonder about the way he briefly lets go of the bat with his bottom hand and then regrips as the pitch is about to be delivered. Timing mechanism? I'm guessing timing mechanism.) Hosmer used to have a very compact but explosive load in his swing, as you'll see below—pivot back, explode forward. He now seems to be straining to wind himself up. You can see the change in the next pair of photos, as the pitch comes in and Hosmer's posture is already hunched. See the difference in both the angle of his torso and the way his front foot is already flat, his lower half flimsy: 

As the hips fly open, the hands now lag behind. And the lack of balance is apparent, as he spins out with far less control and no real tension:

And he falls over the plate after the swing; he falls over on swing after swing throughout the week, ending up in the right-handed batter's box far more than he ended up on first base. Here are the same two swings as GIFs: 

Keith Law last week wrote for ESPN Insider about Hosmer’s struggles. He notes that the problems start at the beginning of the swing:

Hosmer starts his hands just behind his ear and they are in constant motion from when he gets set in the box to when he loads them in a position over his rear foot and lower than his front shoulder, which causes his back (left shoulder) to start to point up and back at the first base dugout. His hands continue moving as he strides, further back and further up, tracing half a circle, counterclockwise, before he brings them forward -- by which point he's already turned his hips most of the way. The torque he generates through hip rotation is wasted, and I think that's where his impressive raw power has gone. 

Hosmer is consistently late on fastballs. In seven days, I saw Hosmer foul off 18 pitches, and my recollection is that one of them—a slider that he dribbled toward the first-base dugout—was pulled. Nearly without fail, the rest were fastballs that he popped foul into the left-field stands or, occasionally, lined sharply toward the third-base dugout. Part of this is approach—as noted, he goes the other way—but the frequency of foul pop-ups on fastballs points to an inability to catch up and get on top of these pitches.

Being late on fastballs makes him susceptible to well-sequenced pitches, and pitchers were able to get him out with fairly simple combinations of changeups backed up by fastballs, or high fastballs followed by paralysis fastballs low and away. I can’t stress enough how overmatched he looked by good fastballs—anything over 92, really, and even slower than that when sequenced with changeups.

If there's one thing in common in all of these, it's his front hip, flying out while his hands try to catch up.

So the .357 turned out to be, basically, a lie. Surprise! We could have guessed as much, given the conveniently drawn endpoints—extend it, say, four games further back and he’s hitting .256 in his past 43 at-bats. We could have wondered what else had happened in those 28 at-bats, and the answer is not much: Hosmer had drawn one walk in that stretch, and he had just two extra-base hits, both doubles. During his hot streak, then, Hosmer had hit all of .357/.379/.429. Coming out of it? Not yet. Maybe someday, but not yet.  

Sam Miller is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Sam's other articles. You can contact Sam by clicking here

Related Content:  Kansas City Royals,  Royals,  Eric Hosmer,  Mechanics,  Hitting,  Slump

23 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

brokeslowly

Nice job Sam. You could be a scout!

May 29, 2013 07:10 AM
rating: 0
 
Leg4206

Thanks for the article. Very interesting.

I'm sort of fascinated by the diagnoses and fixes. I know nothing about hitting, but his complete lack of balance is striking. How did they let him regress that far without addressing it?

May 29, 2013 07:29 AM
rating: 2
 
Mike W
(830)

Very nice job.

Shorter: Hosmer appears to have trouble with velocity, and has compensated by starting his trigger earlier, which caused an increase in his pre-swing movement and sapped his power.

He needs to calm his swing down. He and Gordon Beckham need the same hitting coach, wherever he is.

May 29, 2013 07:35 AM
rating: 1
 
Dave Holgado

Fantastic piece. I noticed that all of the recent gifs above involve Hosmer swinging at pitches on the outer half of the plate, and I'm wondering two things. (1) Does Hosmer also fall over the plate now when he takes a cut at one on the inner half? And (2) have opposing pitchers simply stopped pitching him on the inner half in recognition of Hosmer's struggles with pitches away?

May 29, 2013 08:18 AM
rating: 2
 
BP staff member Sam Miller
BP staff

Yes, at times; No

May 29, 2013 08:27 AM
 
BP staff member Jason Wojciechowski
BP staff

Per the PITCHf/x Hitter Profile on his page, I'd add that pitchers have actually been *more* willing to come inside on Hosmer than they were in 2011.

May 29, 2013 15:01 PM
 
zwestwood

This reminds me of my high school career. Once I became uncomfortable (see: high velocity) my only option was to hopefully hit opposite field. Start leaning outside hoping to catch up and your power is moot.

Reminds me of BJ Uptons downward trend too. He started adding all this herky jerky timing mechanisms and here we are in his "prime" and he is having a career worst year.

Please Eric, read baseball prospectus article on hitting coaches.

I pray to the baseball gods to save a once promising hitter.

May 29, 2013 08:47 AM
rating: 0
 
zwestwood

Eric, if you are reading, see attached link...

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20317

May 29, 2013 08:48 AM
rating: 0
 
timber

He needs an article about a good pitching coach?

May 29, 2013 09:23 AM
rating: 0
 
Richard Bergstrom

His back leg looks ugly. Seems its always bending awkwardly.

May 29, 2013 08:55 AM
rating: -1
 
Pat Folz

Ugh, I've watched him a fair amount this year, and I'm even less of a scout than you, but he just doesn't look like a Major Leaguer right now, bloop-fed .357 average or no.

I know the Fringe Average guys were skeptical about how much he could benefit from being demoted, but I really think he needs to be. Flailing away at Major League velo hasn't worked for 1.3 years now, dude needs to get his swing mechanics back together before the bad habits become permanent.

May 29, 2013 09:18 AM
rating: 1
 
howlingmoon

His butt is heading to the dugout every swing. His butt goes back and then he leans his upper body in at a 30 degree angle and falls across the plate. Somebody straighten him out, he was my final pick in my AL fantasy league and I could use the help.

May 29, 2013 12:24 PM
rating: 2
 
mblthd

Kaitlin Cochran = the Ted Williams of softball:

http://www.pomounties.org/cms/lib02/PA01000181/Centricity/Domain/112/Cochran_01.gif

May 29, 2013 12:30 PM
rating: 0
 
mblthd

More Kaitlin Cochran:

http://oi26.tinypic.com/2cmm7ag.jpg

Hosmer might also do well to study Amber Garza's swing:

http://i56.tinypic.com/s45llc.gif

May 29, 2013 12:47 PM
rating: 0
 
Brady Childs

I have a question about the hand/semi circle thing. Going by your .gifs, he was doing this in 2011 as well. What does that mean?

May 29, 2013 14:15 PM
rating: 0
 
Wells

Can I spot you guys $50 to stop including animated GIFs in articles? It's incredibly distracting and kills the mobile experience PLEASE I BEG YOU. Otherwise, nice article.

May 29, 2013 15:39 PM
rating: -2
 
bobbygrace

I don't use down-votes to disagree with people, so I'll just say that I'm pro-GIF and I vote! GIFs add richness to this article and to the site's analysis in general.

May 29, 2013 19:12 PM
rating: 7
 
BP staff member Sam Miller
BP staff

As a person who spent years printing out BP articles to read on my lunchbreak, I can understand how some platforms aren't good for GIFs. But I find them useful. Super duper useful, more useful than words can be, both for illustration and for accountability. So GIFs it is. Hopefully there's enough content of all styles on the site for everybody to enjoy.

May 29, 2013 19:18 PM
 
shmikdog

also fully support use of GIFs

May 29, 2013 20:38 PM
rating: 1
 
Pat Folz

You're supposed to be able to stop gifs by pressing ESC. Unfortunately, this doesn't seem to be working in Firefox 20?

May 29, 2013 20:33 PM
rating: 0
 
shmikdog

wow. looks like his problem is he's starting the swing with a rotation of the hips, causing his hands to drag too far behind the rest of his swing. this is a common golf swing problem which, not coincidentally, causes one to hit soft fades. it's really not that hard to fix... just make sure your first move from the top of the swing is a weight shift forward, leading to a slight lateral shift in the hips. the hands drop into the slot, then you can clear the hips and hands together, getting a straight shot with power. his old swing shows he used to be able to do that. i'm amazed it's that hard to fix. i mean, i get that it would be harder to fix in baseball given the dynamics of hitting a moving vs. stationary ball. but still...

hey hosmer... take a golf lesson... it'll set you straight.

May 29, 2013 16:08 PM
rating: 0
 
abcjr2

"wow. looks like his problem is he's starting the swing with a rotation of the hips, causing his hands to drag too far behind the rest of his swing. this is a common golf swing problem"

This is a great point, I was thinking the same thing but you said it better. In golf, of course, opening the hips too early pulls the hands ahead of the club head at contact which opens the club face, taking away power and putting a fade spin on the ball.

I recall seeing Barry Bonds on TV once explaining how in the off season he practiced with someone throwing tennis balls to him and he would focus on moving his open palm from behind his left ear just to the point of contact ,meeting the ball with his left hand ("if a catcher can catch it, I can hit it") -- he was practicing the move of throwing the bat head through the swing and not letting it fall behind the hip rotation.

May 30, 2013 13:32 PM
rating: 1
 
Richard Bergstrom

On the subject of The Silly Things Royals Do, while Brett may make a fine hitting instructor, before he didn't seem to express interest in a full-time job and he's not even sure he'd make a good teacher. Meanwhile, they didn't outright fire the old hitting coach, just reassigned him back to the minors...

May 31, 2013 20:59 PM
rating: -1
 
You must be a Premium subscriber to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!
<< Previous Article
Premium Article What You Need to Know:... (05/29)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Pebble Hunting: How Pi... (05/24)
Next Column >>
Pebble Hunting: Every ... (05/31)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Painting the Black: Th... (05/29)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Fantasy Article The Quinton: Draft Setting and the Wisdom of...
Every Team's Moneyball: Baltimore Orioles: U...
Every Team's Moneyball: Miami Marlins: Haste
Fantasy Article Expert League Auction Recap: Tout Wars: Gene...
Premium Article Daisy Cutter: Pedroia Got His Thumb Back, Bu...
Spring Training Notebook: Grapefruit League
Premium Article Some Projection Left: Top 50 Draft Prospects...

MORE FROM MAY 29, 2013
Premium Article What You Need to Know: Up in Their Grilli
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Wednesday, May 29
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Your Annual Reminder: Don...
Premium Article Daily Roundup: Around the League: May 29, 20...
Fantasy Article Free Agent Watch: National League, Week Nine
Fantasy Article Sporer Report: Trading Tips
The BP Wayback Machine: In the Slot

MORE BY SAM MILLER
2013-05-31 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, May 31
2013-05-31 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 2...
2013-05-30 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 2...
2013-05-29 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: A Week of Watching Eric Hosm...
2013-05-29 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 2...
2013-05-28 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 2...
2013-05-24 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: How Pitchers Age at the Plat...
More...

MORE PEBBLE HUNTING
2013-06-05 - Pebble Hunting: The Batting Order Evolution
2013-06-03 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: A Riddle in a Minor-League B...
2013-05-31 - Pebble Hunting: Every Manager's Face, Part 1
2013-05-29 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: A Week of Watching Eric Hosm...
2013-05-24 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: How Pitchers Age at the Plat...
2013-05-20 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: Extreme Strikeout Matchups
2013-05-15 - Pebble Hunting: The Starts That Defied FIP
More...