CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Daily Roundup: Around ... (05/05)
<< Previous Column
BP Unfiltered: The Fli... (05/03)
Next Column >>
BP Unfiltered: The Wee... (05/06)
Next Article >>
The Week in Quotes: Ap... (05/06)

May 6, 2013

BP Unfiltered

Why The Angels, Blue Jays, and Dodgers Have Non-Zero Playoff Odds

by Sam Miller

I'm dumb, so when I see something like the Angels falling nine games out of first place after 31 games, I think "welp, that'll do it then." And then when I look at the playoff odds and see that they're still 20 percent likely to make the playoffs, I'm surprised. I understand the mechanisms at work -- the Angels are probably a good team, and so the odds expect them to play like a good team going forward -- but it's impossible to imagine any team making up an 11-20 stretch. It's impossible to imagine it because I'm dumb. It shouldn't be that hard to imagine.

The worst 31-game stretches by last year's playoff teams: 

Rangers: 15-16
Yankees: 14-17
Orioles: 12-19
Tigers: 11-20
A's: 10-21

Giants: 15-16
Reds: 15-16
Nationals: 15-16
Braves: 13-18
Cardinals: 11-20

A lot of other teams had stretches this bad and didn't make the playoffs, so you know, it's not good. It's really not good to have a stretch like this at the start, leaving no room for another stretch like this. But this is why the Angels, Dodgers, Blue Jays aren't at zero, and why, like me, you might be dumb for expecting otherwise. 

 

 

Sam Miller is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Sam's other articles. You can contact Sam by clicking here

Related Content:  Angels,  Dodgers,  Blue Jays

5 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Daily Roundup: Around ... (05/05)
<< Previous Column
BP Unfiltered: The Fli... (05/03)
Next Column >>
BP Unfiltered: The Wee... (05/06)
Next Article >>
The Week in Quotes: Ap... (05/06)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Offseason Trades and the ...
Fantasy Article Retrospective Player Valuation: National Lea...
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: The Butler Did It
Premium Article Rumor Roundup: The Ideas That Dayton Moore T...
Premium Article Skewed Left: Saving on Stanton?
An Agent's Take: When the Smallest Transacti...
Premium Article Pitching Backward: The Guy Who Makes Scherze...

MORE FROM MAY 6, 2013
Premium Article What You Need to Know: The Hot Starters
Premium Article Pebble Hunting: What Scott Kazmir Looks Like...
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, May 6
Premium Article Dissecting the Draft: Identifying Our Tiers
The Week in Quotes: April 29-May 5
Premium Article Daily Roundup: Around the League: May 6th, 2...
Fantasy Article The Stash List: Pitchers Versus Position Pla...

MORE BY SAM MILLER
2013-05-06 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: What Scott Kazmir Looks Like...
2013-05-06 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 1...
2013-05-06 - BP Unfiltered: The Week In Albert Pujols Pla...
2013-05-06 - BP Unfiltered: Why The Angels, Blue Jays, an...
2013-05-03 - Pebble Hunting: Baseball Out of Context
2013-05-03 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 1...
2013-05-02 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 1...
More...

MORE BP UNFILTERED
2013-05-10 - BP Unfiltered: Dissecting the Draft: Mark Ap...
2013-05-08 - BP Unfiltered: Futures Guide 2013 Book News
2013-05-06 - BP Unfiltered: The Week In Albert Pujols Pla...
2013-05-06 - BP Unfiltered: Why The Angels, Blue Jays, an...
2013-05-03 - BP Unfiltered: The Flimsy Case Against Clay ...
2013-05-02 - BP Unfiltered: Dissecting the Draft: Clint F...
2013-04-30 - BP Unfiltered: The Love Song Of P. Scott Pr...
More...