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May 6, 2013

Dissecting the Draft

Identifying Our Tiers

by Nick J. Faleris


Introduction

We left off in our last installment by identifying 14 targets to consider for selection with our first pick (seventh overall) in our shadow draft:

  1. Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford University
  2. Trey Ball, LHP/OF, New Castle HS (New Castle, IN)
  3. Ryan Boldt, OF, Red Wing HS (Red Wing, MN)
  4. Kris Bryant, OF/3B, University of San Diego
  5. JP Crawford, SS, Lakewood HS (Lakewood, CA)
  6. Jon Denney, C, Yukon HS (Yukon, OK)
  7. Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville HS (Loganville, GA)
  8. Jonathan Gray, RHP, Oklahoma University
  9. Sean Manaea, LHP, Indiana St. University
  10. Reese McGuire, C, Kentwood HS (Covington, WA)
  11. Braden Shipley, RHP, University of Nevada
  12. Dominic Smith, 1B/OF, Serra HS (Los Angeles, CA)
  13. Ryne Stanek, RHP, University of Arkansas
  14. Kohl Stewart, RHP, St. Pius X (Houston, TX)

We also set the framework for decision making at the top of the draft by noting these 14 targets fall into one of three categories: 1) an above-average value for the slot, or talent beyond that which I’d typically expect to be available at this slot; 2) solid value for the slot, or talent I’d typically expect to be available at this slot, and 3) fallback talent, or talent roughly on par with those in category 2, but better suited to fit (as part of my desired draft class on the whole) with talent I expect to grab in the next few rounds.

The goal of this installment is to break each of those 14 picks down into one of the above three categories. This is the starting point for the decision-making process. Moving forward, we will take a close look at each player, rank our options in each category (as well as across categories), and ultimately wind up with a decision-making tree that will serve as a general guide for our selections on draft day, with the effects of our first pick rippling down to later picks based upon our determined strategy.

Sound complicated? In a way, it is—but that’s what makes it fun. We are going to use this series to explore the basics of this process, and in particular the issues and related theories we will be using to assist us along the way. These theories are meant to be challenged, discussed, and, hopefully, tweaked as a result of our dialogue in the comments section, so let’s all roll up our sleeves and have some fun with this.

Tier 1: Must Haves

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<< Previous Article
The Week In Quotes: Ap... (05/06)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Dissecting the Draft: ... (04/30)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Dissecting the Draft: ... (05/10)
Next Article >>
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit Lis... (05/06)

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