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April 16, 2013

Prospects Will Break Your Heart

Checking in On: Shortstops, Part 1

by Jason Parks

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While it’s premature to suggest the 2013 crop of minor-league shortstops will usher in a Golden Era for the position, the class of talent might be the deepest at the position we’ve seen in a long time. Heading into the season, 13 shortstops cracked the Baseball Prospectus 101, including seven within the top 35. Going even deeper, more than 25 shortstops were included on individual teams’ top 10 lists, with several more featured as “On the Rise” candidates for the season.  

Unlike in previous seasons, the current class is lousy with legitimacy, meaning the bulk of the crop has a good chance to remain at the position going forward. Just looking back a few seasons, some of the 101-worthy shortstop prospects included names likes Grant Green, and Wilmer Flores, and Christian Colon, and Miguel Sano, guys who aren’t what I would consider pure shortstops, or even worthy of the distinction “pure enough.”

Even though the season is young and has yet to offer much in the way of a blossom or a wilt, let’s check in on the 2013 class of shortstops in the minors, putting them in purity tiers designed to highlight the likelihood of defensive sustainability at the position, ranging from the purest in the field to those who might be hard pressed to stick at the position at the highest level. For this particular article, let’s keep the bulk of the focus on the top-tier talent, but add scouting notes on a few of the lesser names in the class who have a chance to make waves this season.

The Pure Shortstops

Jurickson Profar (Rangers)
Placement on BP 101: 1
Current level: Triple-A Round Rock
2013 Sample: .222.400/.259 (8 games; 27 at-bats)
Notes: The consensus top prospect in the game, Profar failed to crack the Opening Day 25, but the roster crunch had more to do with a surplus of bodies than with Profar’s readiness for the challenge. With Elvis penciled in as the starting shortstop for the next decade, Profar’s likely home will be at second, but not because of any defensive limitations he might have; Profar’s slick in the field, with a very good glove, a very strong arm, and a flair for making the difficult play. He will still make the casual error, and his decision making often has a stronger tether to the dramatic than to fundamentals, but he makes plays. The stick can separate him from others in the class, because he could end up with a well above average hit tool coupled with at least average power, making him a force on both sides of the ball. He’s off to an odd start in Triple-A, with a lot of walks but not a lot of quality contact, especially from the left side of the plate. It’s only a matter of time before Profar finds his way to the major-league level, but unless he is offered up in a trade, he won’t be making his bones as a shortstop for the Rangers.

Francisco Lindor (Indians)
Placement on BP 101: 10
Current Level: High-A Carolina
2013 Sample: .333/.429/.472 (10 games; 36 at-bats)
Notes: It was during the fall instructional league in 2011, not long after Lindor signed and managed to play a few games in the New York-Penn League, that I first put eyes on him. I was in Goodyear, standing with my face folded into the fence surrounding the field, watching this 17-year-old shortstop showcase talents that were far more developed than his age might suggest. The following day, I was sharing the experience with a member of another team’s front office, waxing poetic about his glove and his approach and his superman qualities, which I think I amended to include a cape and spandex and perhaps the ability to heal the sick. The money quote that followed form the industry source burrowed its way into my head, ringing at the same volume 18 months later. “Lindor is going to play shortstop at the major-league level for 15 years. He might not be a glory guy, but you can have the lineups printed up in advance with his name on them.” You aren’t going to hear this about many players in the minors, and the qualities that prompted such a statement are already evident in his lower-level game. In a small sample, the now 19-year-old is hitting for average, showing a very mature approach at the plate, and flashing the type of leather that will play all the way up the chain. He’s a special talent despite the fact that his numbers might fall short of that distinction. The number on his back, as he trots out to a premium position in the Indians org for the foreseeable future, is the number that matters the most.

Adalberto Mondesi (Royals)
Placement on BP 101: 58
Current Level: Low-A Lexington
2013 Sample:
Notes: While he won’t be confused for an elite defender at the position, Mondesi does project to have a plus profile at shortstop, a rarity even among the most talented of players. The actions are smooth and the arm plenty strong, but his overall feel and instincts for the game are what push his skill set above most of his contemporaries. Despite only being 17, you can see that Mondesi has the ability to slow the game down, to play at an elevated level against elevated competition without losing his approach or his presence on the field. He’s still raw in all phases of the game, especially at the plate, where he shows the necessary instincts to hit but lacks the strength in the swing and experience to hit with much authority. He’s going to swing and miss a lot in these formidable developmental years, and when contact is made, it’s more likely to be soft than threatening, but it’s all going to be there in the end. The similarities to both Profar and Lindor can’t be discounted, as all three are switch-hitting shortstops with instincts feel for all phases of the game. It might take Mondesi a few years to reach a similar prospect tier, but the talent is there for such an eventuality.

Hak-Ju Lee (Rays)
Placement on BP 101: 75
Current Level: Triple-A Durham
2013 Sample: .412/.512/.647 (10 games; 34 at-bats)
Notes: Lee’s stock took a hit last season with a disappointing run at the plate in the Southern League, as he hit an empty .261 and looked overmatched against quality stuff. So far in 2013, the 22-year-old is hitting over .400 and showing impressive secondary skills, but the real Lee is probably closer to the 2012 version, a contact-oriented hitter who puts his legs into the equation and good ball/strike-recognition skills that allow for some on-base ability. What puts Lee on this tier is his overall defensive skill set, which is very fluid and easy, with soft hands, a strong arm, and excellent range. Being a plus-plus runner helps, but Lee shows an aptitude for the position and a quick first step and body control. As a player who profiles as an above average defender at the highest level, any impact with the bat will be gravy, and if Lee can make quality contact against quality pitching, use his legs to put pressure on the defense, and work some walks, he has a chance to reach a first-division ceiling.

Luis Sardinas (Rangers)
Placement on BP 101: 86
Current Level: High-A Myrtle Beach
2013 Sample:
Notes: A true Venezuelan shortstop, Sardinas has even louder tools than his fellow July 2nd and organizational mate Jurickson Profar. He hasn’t been very lucky on the health front, losing valuable developmental time thanks to multiple shoulder injuries, but when he’s on the field, he has the skills to stand out; the defense profiles as an easy 6 at the highest level, with big range, a strong arm, and the type of actions that stand shoulder-to-shoulder with the best in the minors. His body is skinny and not particular strong, which can leave his loose, easy swing a bit empty, but he shows contact ability and the wheels to help that play up. This is a big if, but if Sardinas can stay healthy and manage to add some weight and strength to his wiry frame, the bat could make some noise and push him up prospect lists, giving Texas a valuable trade chip going forward.

Outside the top 101

Jose Iglesias (Red Sox)
Placement on Red Sox Top Ten: 9
Current Level: Triple-A Pawtucket
2013 Sample: .143/.294/.357 (4 games; 14 at-bats)
Notes: Iglesias raked out of the gate for the Sox, with nine hits in his first 20 at-bats, but soon found himself back in Triple-A with the arrival of Stephen Drew on the major-league scene. Iglesias sits atop this list when it comes to defensive wizardry, with a glove that some scouts don’t hesitate to put an 80 grade on. The bat is his biggest weakness, and one of the reasons he found himself on the outside of the top 101 prospects in the game. This guy doesn’t have to do much at the plate to have value, and if he can find his stroke in Pawtucket and keep his focus despite a yo-yo developmental journey since signing in 2009, he will get another chance to prove his mettle at the highest level. Defense isn’t the same draw as power or speed, but I’d pay twice the price of admission just to watch Iglesias take infield. 

Didi Gregorius (DBacks)
Placement on DBacks Top Ten: 5
Current Level: Triple-A Reno
2013 Sample: .423/.464/.731 (6 games; 26 at-bats)
Notes: The prospect return in the Trevor Bauer trade, Gregorius arrived on the scene as a well known defensive player, but questions about the bat have prevented him from emerging as a top prospect. First of all, his real name is Mariekson Julius Gregorius, which is a plus-plus name and it makes me want to see him succeed. More importantly, the 23-year-old can really pick it at shortstop, with an above average glove and a plus-plus hose for an arm. Opinions vary on his offensive potential, with some saying his solid-average hit tool will play up even higher thanks to the speed and he could be a .280-plus hitter, while others think he will struggle against velocity and fall short of what could make him an everyday player. The 2013 sample is tiny, and the environment he’s playing could balloon the numbers and disguise the faults, so it will be important to measure Gregorius’s progress once he returns to the major-league level.

Jonathan Villar (Astros)
Placement on Astros Top Ten: 6
Current Level: Triple-A Oklahoma City
2013 Sample:
Notes: Villar has loud tools and a respectable ceiling because of those loud tools, but the utility of those tools is another story. Villar is a player who rarely puts everything together on a given night, either flashing the leather or forcing the arm, or showing off a nice swing only to lose his approach, or succumbing to his emotions and taking himself out of the focus of the game. The hit tool is below average and unlikely to have impact, but with plus defensive tools and easy plus run, Villar could have some value, especially on a team short on talent at the position. But the woes of 2012 have carried over to 2013, as Villar is dead weight at the plate and getting absolutely punished by right-handed pitching. As a floor Villar projected as a utility man, but that floor has the potential to rot away if the bat can’t show any signs of life.

Jose Peraza (Braves)
Placement on Braves Top Ten: 7
Current Level: Low-A Rome
2013 Sample:
Notes: If you notice, when I speak of Venezuelan shortstops, I do so with reverence and respect, as the country has a knack for growing impressive leather wizards. Peraza is another in a long line of slick defenders from the area, possessing the kind of skills that have impact potential at the highest level. The arm is an easy 6 and possibly a 7, with the glove and range both projecting at the plus level. The bat has some promise, with a short to-the-ball swing built for contact, although it’s underdeveloped when compared the defensive chops and likely to stay in the backseat during the developmental journey. Peraza made the jump to full-season ball to start the 2013 season, and I’m going to assume he will be over his head on the offensive side of the ball for the majority of it. He’s soon to turn 19 and the Braves are in a good position to allow him the time to develop, even if that means he spends several years in the lower minors. The glove, the arm, and the speed make this kid an interesting prospect, and down the line the bat has a chance to make him a very legit player. It’s very early in the process, but the reports on the defensive chops are very good and despite not hitting much in his first two weeks of action, his approach is keeping him in counts and giving him opportunities to reach base. 

Jason Parks is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Jason's other articles. You can contact Jason by clicking here

51 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

mmason

Awesome article Jason! Noting that you consider this article to only be Part 1, would it be unfair of me to ask where is Addison Russell? Is his omission simply because you don't believe he projects as a SS?

Apr 16, 2013 04:19 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Russell projects as a shortstop, just not one that I consider to be a "pure" shortstop. He will appear in Part 2, under the "Pure Enough" tier.

Apr 16, 2013 07:30 AM
 
Sharky

Anything on Trevor Story? Brutal start to 2013. Looks like that's common for that Modesto team. Small sample size?

Apr 16, 2013 04:42 AM
rating: -1
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Part 2

Apr 16, 2013 07:29 AM
 
dcapofari

I still don't understand why the Rangers gave that contract to Andrus with Profar being a sure thing at defense. Also, since he now looks like he'll be at 2b does that lower him as the top prospect?

Apr 16, 2013 06:20 AM
rating: 2
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Profar has a chance to be a better offense player than Elvis, but his glove isn't on the same level. Elvis is one of the best in the game. Profar is a pure shortstop, but he will still have a ton of value at 2B, especially if the bat proves to be legit.

Apr 16, 2013 07:29 AM
 
cooper7d7

Correa? Wait for Part II?

Apr 16, 2013 06:46 AM
rating: 0
 
jonmischa

Where are Addison Russell, Carlos Correa, and Xander Bogaerts?

Apr 16, 2013 07:11 AM
rating: -2
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Part 2

Apr 16, 2013 07:27 AM
 
huztlers

Part 2 sounds a lot better. This sounds like largely a list of future utility players

Apr 17, 2013 19:45 PM
rating: 0
 
timber

What's this I hear about Adalberto Mondesi saying he wants to go by Raul now?

Apr 16, 2013 07:42 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

"His momma call him Clay, I'm going to call him Clay."

Apr 16, 2013 07:46 AM
 
Benjamin Harris

Then you're a putz.

Apr 16, 2013 08:14 AM
rating: 4
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Speaking of pure quality, that movie still stands up.

Apr 16, 2013 08:17 AM
 
ddufourlogger

That boy can sing!

Apr 16, 2013 08:58 AM
rating: 4
 
Dave Holgado

"Alright, I'll taste the soup. Where's the spoon?"

"Ach-haaaa... ach-haaaa."

Apr 16, 2013 09:48 AM
rating: 0
 
gdragon1977

She's your queeeeeeeeeeen to-oo be!

Apr 16, 2013 09:55 AM
rating: 1
 
ttt

A man has the right to change his name to vatever he vants to change it to. And if a man vants to be called Muhammad Ali, godammit this is a free country, you should respect his vishes, and call the man Muhammad Ali!

Apr 16, 2013 09:26 AM
rating: 0
 
Dan W.

I say Clay!

Apr 16, 2013 11:35 AM
rating: 0
 
Noel Baldwin

Will Alen Hanson be in part 2?

Apr 16, 2013 07:45 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Yes. Not a prospect I consider to be a "pure" shortstop. Not really a prospect I consider to be a "Pure Enough" shortstop either, but he will definitely appear in the series.

Defensive tiers for this series:

Pure
Pure Enough
Less-Than-Pure

Apr 16, 2013 07:48 AM
 
SC

I believe that hierarchy has wide applications and look forward to your expansion of its use to describe everything from alcoholic drinks to those foolish enough to be wooed by alcoholic drinks.

Apr 16, 2013 11:51 AM
rating: 2
 
Klochner

Has this position been this deep at any point in time in recent memory? This seems like a pretty solid list and it doesn't even include any of the aforementioned Pure Enough guys.

Apr 16, 2013 07:46 AM
rating: 2
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

I can't recall a shortstop class this deep in recent memory, but the ultimate goal is to develop these players to the highest level, so we can look back in a few years for more historical perspective. Lots of high ceiling talent; lots of pure shortstops; lots of shortstops that are just a step below that (Correa, Baez, Russell, etc.). Even the shortstops that are unlikely to stick at the position long-term (Bogaerts, Paulino) are highly skilled elsewhere.

Apr 16, 2013 07:52 AM
 
Dan

"I can't recall a shortstop class this deep in recent memory"

From BA's Top 100 list from 1995:

1) A-Rod
3) Chipper
4) Jeter
8) Alex Gonzalez
20) Rey Ordonez
22) Nomar

Apr 16, 2013 08:02 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

I wasn't dipping back into the mid-90s, but yes, that's a very impressive class, featuring hall of fame level talent. Perhaps in ten years we will be able to look back on this class with the same reverence. It certainly has the talent and the depth to produce a long list of first-division players.

Apr 16, 2013 08:11 AM
 
NJTomatoes

Quite arguable whether 1995 is recent memory. Just sayin'.

Apr 16, 2013 10:16 AM
rating: 0
 
Andy Cochrane

I live my life thinking 1995 is recent. Even though when I look rationally I realise it is almost 20 years ago!

Apr 16, 2013 12:19 PM
rating: 1
 
JoeTetreault

Professor, I have ruminated on this topic with other observers of the game and wanted to get your take.

A plethora of developing shortstops suggests, to my mind at least, an intelligent utilization of an organization's development resources, because the more shortstops a team can develop, the more likely it can cover the infield at the highest level with better than average fielders.

Shortstops with plus to plus-plus hit tools can shift to their left or right depending on their arm strength and organizational need. While those with the purest gloves stay at short and pick it at the highest level. I noticed four farm systems I respect (Texas, KC, Cleveland and Boston) have insane depth at shortstop.

First, is this a reasonable observation? Secondly, does this organizational focus account for a lack of highly-rated "pure" second basemen in farm systems? Thanks!

Apr 16, 2013 07:50 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Every team in baseball covets up-the-middle talent, but method of procurement is always a factor. Teams that heavily scout and acquire from the Latin American markets are better equipped to stockpile lower-level shortstops, as the rule 4 draft puts an even greater premium on their services, especially the ones that can stick all the way up. The farm systems you listed have been big players in the international markets.

The better the bat, the better chance that player can survive as the shift off the middle, which most players do. That's what makes the pure shortstops so special because they will only have to move for organizational need, not developmental inefficiency. Of course, finding a legit (pure/pure enough) shortstop that is also a plus hitter is a rare find, and can offer extreme value at maturity.

Apr 16, 2013 07:58 AM
 
JoeTetreault

Thanks, Jason. I noticed similar depth in centerfield, in this year's prospect rankings, as well. Is it the same basic rationale, except with a greater emphasis on Rule 4 talent options?

Apr 16, 2013 08:06 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Yes. Up the middle talent will always be at a premium, but its easier to find a good outfielder than a good infielder. I know centerfield gets called a premium position--and it is--but I don't put it in the same league as shortstops or catchers. If you have speed and baseball instincts, you can probably figure centerfield out. It takes a lot more than that to develop into a quality shortstop.

Apr 16, 2013 08:13 AM
 
BarryR

This was actually a key component of the defensive spectrum, as Bill James introduced it. He posited that good organizations tended to stockpile talent on the SS-2B-CF side of the spectrum, while poor ones had a disproportionate number of 1B-LF types. When I read that, I was blown away, as I had never thought about it that way. The key is that a SS can move down the spectrum and still play a key defensive position, while someone at the other end rarely goes up the spectrum.
Of course, that was written in the mid-70s, the relatively early days of both the draft and the DH. The DH then was the province of the elderly and the infirm, but as things have developed, it has become a place for an extra bat, especially a corner type. This has been a big advantage for AL teams, as they don't have to worry about where those extra corner guys will play.

Apr 16, 2013 12:22 PM
rating: 2
 
genehuh

Francisco Lindor is the only rule 4 draftee on this list.

Apr 16, 2013 09:37 AM
rating: 3
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Yep. Speaks to the scarcity of pure shortstop skills available stateside. Oddly enough, the five main prospects in the "Pure Enough" tier were all acquired in the Rule 4 draft.

Apr 16, 2013 09:40 AM
 
philly

Begs the questions... why?

Too many premium athletes lost to other sports?

Or too many premium athletes with strong arms sticking as pitchers?

Something else?

Apr 16, 2013 10:14 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Losing premium athletes to other sports is a big issue in baseball. Premium athletes in the U.S. usually play multiple sports, and if college is the goal, the scholarship packages and general exposure are likely to to be more attractive in those other sports (football/basketball). In other parts of the world, baseball is life and the only ticket out of town.

Apr 16, 2013 10:19 AM
 
jfribley

That all makes sense. Is there also a greater tendency towards bulking up amongst younger stateside athletes that might knock them off the position? Or not as much of a factor?

Apr 16, 2013 10:45 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

This is an interesting point. Bulking up could be a factor, especially with the physical demands of football. If you want to survive high school football in the South, you need to have the body of a man at an early age.

Apr 16, 2013 10:51 AM
 
batts40

Happy to see the increased frequency of articles from the Professor on BP. Good stuff.

Apr 16, 2013 09:54 AM
rating: 0
 
glover6ss

Chris Owings?

Apr 16, 2013 10:16 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Part 2: Pure Enough.

Apr 16, 2013 10:20 AM
 
dantroy

Would you say Lindor is a 7 glove?

Apr 16, 2013 10:26 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

I'd put a 6 on it now, and through repetition the utility of the tool should play to 7. The actions are very smooth; hands very soft.

Apr 16, 2013 10:30 AM
 
dantroy

Will this series consider the likes of Wilfredo Tovar, who may have a SS glove but probably won't hit enough to have a significant career?

Apr 16, 2013 11:03 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Tovar wasn't featured on the Mets Top Ten list, or mentioned as an On the Rise prospect, so he won't be mentioned in this particular series.

Apr 16, 2013 11:24 AM
 
kcheaden

Will Jace Petersen of the Padres be discussed? As a football player learning to play baseball he's made steady progress thus far in his career and may be a late bloomer.

Apr 16, 2013 12:31 PM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Peterson didn't make the cut. I've seen him play countless times, and he can flash it. He's not a great shortstop and I don't believe in the bat. He also didn't make the Padres top 10 or the "On the Rise" section, so he was excluded from this particular series. I'd be happy to profile any player not featured after the fact.

Apr 16, 2013 12:42 PM
 
Schere

Schoop: part 3? Or not even?

Apr 16, 2013 15:20 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Playing shortstop, but more of a 2B/3B. Not in the series as a SS.

Apr 16, 2013 15:49 PM
 
MaineSkin

Pertaining to Villar, do SH usually struggle on the left side? Yes, this is an extreme broad question, but I would understand if he was struggling on the right side, but with his speed you think he just try to make Hct and use his legs. I just traded for him in a dynasty knowing he will at least get his shot (and knowing R.I.P. Goldstein loves tools).

Jun 10, 2013 20:10 PM
rating: 0
 
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