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March 26, 2013

Fantasy Auction Values

Sixth Edition, March 26

by Mike Gianella

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Between some of my reactions to the prices at Tout Wars and a long list of injury news, it was an incredibly busy week for pricing updates. Below is a list of the most significant changes made this week.

National League Hitters

Hanley Ramirez $18 (previous: $30)
Hanley’s WBC thumb injury is expected to knock him out of commission until late May. This new bid takes his 2012 production and prorates it for the number of games he will play assuming a late-May return.

Cameron Maybin $19 (previous: $17)
Maybin went for a whopping $25 in Tout Wars on Sunday. While I think that’s way too high, I do believe there is more upside in Maybin’s price than the $15 paid for him in both CBS and LABR.

Pablo Sandoval $19 (previous: $22)
Sandoval is battling a bone spur in his elbow and probably won’t be ready for Opening Day. The price may need to drop again depending on further developments with the injury. Bruce Bochy is adamant that Sandoval will be ready, but I have my doubts.

Ryan Ludwick $14 (previous: $12)
I moved Ludwick up a couple of dollars after taking a closer look at his performance last year and his power potential in Cincinnati.

Domonic Brown $13 (previous: $11)
I keep moving Brown up, but this is probably about as far as I’m going to go. There is still some risk in Brown’s profile and outfield is deep in the National League.

Gerardo Parra $12 (previous: $7)
Adam Eaton $10 (previous: $16)
Eaton’s injury leads to a direct flip-flop for the two Arizona outfielders in the rankings. This might be a little high for Parra, but even as a straight fourth outfielder in NL-only formats, he still had the potential to earn $15.

Jordany Valdespin $7 (previous $4)
Collin Cowgill $6 (previous: $4)
Mets manager Terry Collins said that Valdespin will start at second base on Opening Day and that he’ll see a good amount of time in the outfield once Daniel Murphy comes back. I believe Valdespin is stretched as a starter, but on the Mets, he could pick up a sizable chunk of playing time. Cowgill moves up due to additional anticipated playing time as well.

Ian Stewart $3 (previous: $5)
Stewart won’t be available for Opening Day. He might be a bargain at this price, but there is a lot of risk and we have a significant amount of performance data that tells us not to chase.

Darin Ruf $2 (previous: $4)
The Phillies optioned Ruf to Triple-A. He could be up at some point, but for now, you’d be wise to bid with caution.

These hitters were specifically adjusted due to my price being significantly higher or lower than the LABR/Tout Wars market:

Justin Upton $32 (previous: $30)
Bryce Harper $31 (previous: $29)
Andre Ethier $19 (previous: $21)
Josh Rutledge $14 (previous: $12)
Tyler Colvin $10 (previous: $8)
Chris Nelson $8 (previous: $11)

National League Pitchers

Kyle Lohse $9 (previous: no bid)
Wily Peralta $1 (previous: $4)
Mike Fiers $7 (previous: $9)
Lohse signed with the Brewers yesterday, and since this is breaking news, the $9 is a placeholder bid. The assumption is that Peralta will be slotted into a long-relief role, though late rumors yesterday mentioned Mike Fiers as a possibility to lose his rotation job instead of Peralta.

Aroldis Chapman $22 (previous: $17)
Jonathan Broxton $2 (previous $11)
Chapman will close for the Reds and is the second-best option in baseball behind only Craig Kimbrel. Broxton moves down significantly without the potential to earn saves.

Zack Greinke $18 (previous: $15)
I moved Greinke down last week, but based on the current health reports I’m moving him back up somewhat. There is still a good amount of risk here, though, and I’d be wary of anchoring my staff with Greinke.

Brandon League $13 (previous: $11)
As the Dodgers closer, League should be priced a little higher than he was, even with Kenley Jansen in the fold.

Roy Halladay $13 (previous: $15)
I’m extremely fearful of Halladay. He might wind up being a significant bargain at this price, but I suspect the ceiling on Doc this year is $20 and not $30.

Dan Haren $12 (previous $14)
Haren moves down a couple of dollars simply based on preference. If you believe that he is 100 percent and will remain healthy all year, this bid should be moved up quite a bit.

Jason Motte $10 (previous: $19)
Mitchell Boggs $6 (previous: $1)
Trevor Rosenthal $6 (previous: $3)
Motte was diagnosed with a “mild” elbow strain, but anytime you hear about bad things going on with a pitcher’s elbow it should give you pause. Motte went for $12 in Tout Wars after going for $20 in LABR. This could be a bargain, but there’s enough uncertainly to make Motte one to avoid for me. Boggs is the short-term option for saves, but Rosenthal could be the long-term option if Motte’s injury proves to be more serious. If Rosenthal doesn’t get saves, he’s still a good guy to own for the rate stats and the strikeouts.

Wade Miley $10 (previous: $12)
Miley is suffering through a tired/dead arm. He’ll probably be okay, but the low prices in LABR/Tout Wars mean that you can most likely get him at this price.

Julio Teheran $6 (previous: $4)
A strong spring combined with Teheran’s ceiling pushes his bid up a couple of dollars.

Jacob Turner $3 (previous: $5)
Turner went for $1 in CBS and $2 in LABR. If you want him, this price should do it.

Johan Santana $3 (previous $5)
Santana’s timetable continues to get pushed back. His status for 2013 looks more and more uncertain as we close in on Opening Day.

Zack Wheeler $3 (previous $5)
Wheeler will be great long-term, but $6 was a lot for a pitcher who won’t start 2013 in the majors and whose timetable for promotion is entirely unknown.

American League Hitters

Victor Martinez $17 (previous $19)
I have to give Peter Kreutzer of askrotoman.com credit on this one. He studied the likelihood of hitters past a certain age returning to form after missing a full season. These players didn’t do particularly well, with only one, Danny Tartabull, even remotely returning to form. Seventeen dollars is still an aggressive bid; I just didn’t want recommend paying close to $20.

Michael Saunders $15 (previous: $17)
There is some trepidation about Saunders, so I moved him down to reflect his market. I still like Saunders as a sneaky power-speed option in 2013.

David Ortiz $14 (previous: $16)
Ortiz won’t be ready to go Opening Day and his advanced age concerns me.

Derek Jeter $12 (previous: $15)
Jeter won’t be ready on Opening Day, either. His health is more and more of a question, and my certainty that he will play a full slate of games diminishes as the season gets close.

Andy Dirks $11 (previous: $9)
With the Tigers cutting Brennan Boesch, Dirks has cemented a job in Detroit’s outfield.

Mark Teixeira $10 (previous: $12)
Another week, another downgrade for Teixeira. Unless I hear any more concrete news on his health, though, I won’t move him down further.

Justin Smoak $9 (previous: $7)
Smoak has been having a strong spring and will get least one more chance to live up to his untapped potential. As a post-hype sleeper, a $9 bid is more realistic in AL-only formats.

Stephen Drew $8 (previous: $11)
Drew’s concussion might not be a significant issue, but concerns about his general health will push his price down. He went for $4 in AL Tout Wars.

Vernon Wells $6 (previous: $1)
Wells has the opportunity to pick up a solid chunk of at bats on an ancient Yankees team. Even if he isn’t starting all year, he should find his way into the lineup a fair amount of the time.

Tyler Greene $1 (previous: $8)
Ronny Cedeno $3 (previous: no bid)
Greene was cut by the Astros and is out of options. Cedeno is his replacement.

Wilson Betemit $1 (previous: $4)
Nolan Reimold $7 (previous: $4)
Betemit suffered a grade-two or -three PCL tear today and will most likely miss a significant portion of the season. I’m not certain that Reimold is going to be the greatest beneficiary, but barring a trade, he would seem to have the most to gain.

These hitters were specifically adjusted due to my price being significantly higher or lower than the LABR/Tout Wars market:

Jason Kipnis $23 (previous: $21)
Alcides Escobar $22 (previous: $24)
Kyle Seager $18 (previous: $16)
Lance Berkman $10 (previous: $8)
Jarrod Saltalamacchia $9 (previous: $7)
Carlos Pena $7 (previous: $9)
Josh Donaldson $6 (previous: $3)

American League Pitchers

R.A. Dickey $20 (previous: $18)
I’m convinced that Dickey will hold a fair amount of his value in 2013, so I decided that the $18 price was too low.

Jon Lester $18 (previous: $16)
I finally caved and added a couple of dollars to Lester’s bid based partly on his strong spring, but mostly because of his performance prior to 2012.

Chris Perez $12 (previous: $10)
The health reports look positive and Perez should be ready on Opening Day or shortly thereafter.

Casey Janssen $9 (previous: $12)
Sergio Santos $5 (previous: $3)
The Blue Jays are saying Janssen is fine and ready for Opening Day, but reports on his velocity are of some concern. Santos moves up again based on these concerns.

Grant Balfour $12 (previous: $9)
Balfour’s timetable also looks good and his price has been moved up accordingly.

Phil Hughes $6 (previous: $9)
Back injuries and starting pitchers make me nervous. Down goes Hughes.

Ivan Nova $6 (previous $4)
A closer look at Nova’s high K/IP rate last year tells me that he was a little low for 5x5 formats.

This pitcher was specifically adjusted due to my price being significantly higher or lower than the LABR/Tout Wars market

Anibal Sanchez $11 (previous: $9)

Mike Gianella is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Mike's other articles. You can contact Mike by clicking here

Related Content:  Tout Wars

19 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

saigonsam

So Tyler Greene's value increases $7 after being cut by the Astros? Sounds about right.

Mar 26, 2013 03:35 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Daniel Rathman
BP staff

Fixed.

Mar 26, 2013 06:03 AM
 
GarryPowell

Ryan Howard $2 in a mixed league?

Mar 26, 2013 10:02 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Mike Gianella
BP staff

Perhaps somewhat low, but I do not have much faith in a Howard bounce back in 2013. I believe he will not be that far above replacement level.

Mar 26, 2013 10:27 AM
 
matthewpb

When you're in the auction, how do you guys synthesize this info with the tiers and the PFM numbers? Or do you just choose one and forget the others?

Mar 26, 2013 18:05 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Mike Gianella
BP staff

I don't. I target almost entirely based on value and go from there. However, Jason, Paul, Paul, Josh, and Bret might answer this differently. Different analysts have different approaches, and there isn't a "right" or "wrong" way if you reach your ultimate goal.

Mar 26, 2013 18:16 PM
 
swarmee

Well, it depends on how much you trust your projection set. If you think it's 90% the best possible guess as to how the players will perform, then for an unknown (say Justin Ruggiano) who is expected to earn $24 in your league, you price enforce all the way up to $23. You'll probably get him at $10 or so, since the magazines or sites other people use won't be as high on him.

One of the ways that has helped me weather the projections down is to crowdsource by averaging the dollar values from a couple of sources. For example, weight these four sources equally: PFM, Fantasy Baseball Guide mag, CBS $$, and Tout Wars/LABR. It's a little extra work, but it will help you come up with more reasonable bids.

That will allow you to get more of a consensus look at player values, so you're not reaching on any player that is projected to do well in one but crummy in anoter. It's a way to hedge your bets if you don't trust any single projection set. That's kind of what Mike is doing by making bid lists, since the bid lists price in what players are going for in the expert leagues, and the experts have all their own projection sets or sources.

Mar 26, 2013 19:45 PM
rating: 2
 
matthewpb

I've tried to do that kind of crowdsourcing in the past, but the time in consolidating all those sources into one cheat-spreadsheet has become too much. I think that being able to put Mike's wisdom side by side with the PFM, that would go a long way towards replacing that crowdsourcing.

Regardless, this is very helpful info. Thanks.

Mar 26, 2013 20:13 PM
rating: 1
 
Robotey

I think best approach to auction is pick the 12 most important spots out of the 23 on your roster, target players and budget hom much you can spend. Be realistic. If you end up getting a guy for a few dollars less, than you can spend a few more on another. Owners overthink auctions. Target your players and get them. If others overbid, know in advance which other players you can slot in --and that's where the tiers come in.

Mar 28, 2013 15:43 PM
rating: 0
 
matthewpb

I appreciate all the different approaches, especially being able to see how you come to your conclusions.

It would be great in the future to have some comprehensive tool that would show all of your takes side by side or in the same format so we could easily use your collective judgement.

Mar 26, 2013 20:05 PM
rating: 0
 
cgraham73

I am going with a new approach for me which is FIRM values that I will bid right up to if I like the guy... I am using LABR and CBS as kinda supporting sources while giving most weight to Mike's predicted values and the TOUT WAR PRICES(except where I saw in the auction that auction dynamics drove a price up and not necessarily his value, just maybe he was the last speed guy or whatever...Not sure how its gonna work for me cause I have used most of my previous 20 or so auctions a more "go by my gut" approach with some rough values for general guides...I won a lot of championships in the early years but have been in a first place drought for 5 years so I think it's time to get a little more scientific..

The draft is a NL Only Keeper$$ league saturday morning so I will let you know how it goes..

Thanks again Mike for all your hard work...I enjoyed your plan of attack at the NL TOUT draft...

Take care, Chris

Mar 28, 2013 14:05 PM
rating: 0
 
LynchMob

Gattis seems worth a buck in NL-only, right?

Especially if keeper league ... is he that long of a long-shot? Perhaps ...

Mar 31, 2013 22:01 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Mike Gianella
BP staff

Sure.

In only leagues, the guys that aren't listed and the guys that are $1 are fairly interchangeable.

In Tout Wars, Gattis was OF only (eligible only at the position he played most in the minors in 2012). This is not an uncommon rule (we play with it in one of my home leagues) so be aware.

Apr 01, 2013 05:00 AM
 
swarmee

He went for $7 in my NL only keeper league. Puig went for $10. Jose Fernandez went for $8 before it was announced he made the roster.
Looks like we love prospects in my league.

Other prospects bought during the auction:
$2 Dee Gordon, $1 Gary Brown, $2 Didi Gregorius, $2 Adeiny Hechavarria, $2 Darin Ruf, $4 Trevor Rosenthal, $3 Rob Brantly, $8 Travis d'Arnaud, $3 Jake Marisnick, $1 Hunter Morris, $1 JR Graham, $1 Zach Lee

Asian imports: $21 Kyuji Fujikawa, $9 Hyun-jin Ryu

I nominated Adeiny at $1 when I had a max bid of $2. Had I nominated him at $2, nobody else could have bought him, so I lost him for my poor situational awareness.

Apr 01, 2013 07:13 AM
rating: 0
 
LynchMob

So, who did you eventually get for $2? Or did you leave that buck on the table?

Apr 01, 2013 12:54 PM
rating: 0
 
swarmee

Wilton Lopez, COL RP. Had to settle for Mets 3B Wilmer Flores at $1 to fill CI. I can call up Yonder Alonso at CI or I can save him for trading when teams start ditching.

Apr 01, 2013 20:29 PM
rating: 0
 
LynchMob

Will there be a 7th edition?

Apr 07, 2013 08:57 AM
rating: 0
 
swarmee

I doubt it; nobody's drafting anymore.

Apr 07, 2013 17:52 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Mike Gianella
BP staff

No.

Apr 08, 2013 04:44 AM
 
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