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March 11, 2013

Fantasy Auction Values

Fourth Edition, March 11

by Mike Gianella

Last Monday, I examined how the bidding in the AL-only LABR auction impacted some of my bids. This week, it’s the National League’s turn (although I do have a handful of notes about the American League based on injury news).

National League Hitters

Matt Kemp — $36 (previous: $34)

I still have some reservations about bidding into the mid-$30s for Kemp without seeing if his power is back, post-injury. However, the aggressive bidding in CBS ($39) and LABR ($36) made me feel my bid was a bit too conservative.

Aramis Ramirez — $24 (previous: $26)

I’m not overly concerned about Ramirez’s injury, but the combination of the injury and his age made me move down his bid slightly. His ceiling is around $30; take away the nine steals Ramirez had last year, and he loses $3 of value. With older hitters, I advise against banking on the best-case scenario.

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28 comments have been left for this article.

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grandslam28

Have you heard the PED rumor going around out there by the guy who broke the Melky Cabrera suspension? Would this uncertainty affect your bids?

Mar 11, 2013 05:26 AM

rating: 0

Mike Gianella

BP staff

I've heard the rumor. At the moment, I view it with a healthy degree of skepticism. It doesn't mean it isn't true....I'm sure that the source of the rumor and the person reporting it aren't lying and don't have an ax to grind. However, I don't have enough information about how this person obtained the information on Melky (the original source, not the person reporting on it) and so don't know if this was a stroke of luck or something more. There have been PED suspensions since Melky Cabrera's and there haven't been any other leaks to date. Again, this doesn't mean that the source is wrong, but I have more questions than answers about how reliable the source is. I can't knock Braun down $10-12 based on the information I have at the moment.

Mar 11, 2013 06:12 AM

grandslam28

I'm not saying $10-12 yet, because even with a suspension it might only knock Braun down 11-14. But maybe a few bucks lower to be risk averse. I understand the skepticism, but the guy was right before & should be given at least a little notice. At worst I think that it should at least get a mention on the possibility, give people the info, & let them decide if they will let it affect their bids.

Mar 11, 2013 07:57 AM

rating: 0

abskippers

I'm trying to decide between a $1 Willin Rosario and a $29 Verlander for my 5th keeper. Obviously if Rosario were projected for a $20 season, it would be an easier choice, but PECOTA has him at $2. Also my league has a 1350 total IP cap, so someone who can dominate 17% of my total IP should justify a premium. It's also a 1 C league. So is Rosario potentially special enough to hold on to, or is he just as likely to revert to hitting .240 and get stuck in a part time role?

Mar 11, 2013 06:42 AM

rating: 0

Mike Gianella

BP staff

How deep is your league? The shallower the league, the less valuable Rosario is. In a 12-team mixer I have Rosario higher than that, but based on your league's rules I can understand your reluctance to make that deal. I think Rosario has enough power that he'll stick, but I agree with your concerns about the BA/possibilities for regression. If you think you can replace Verlander in the draft, I'd say make the deal. However, if you think pitching is going to be hard to get a hold off, you might want to hold back.

Mar 11, 2013 07:44 AM

Robotey

RE: Beltran - Doesn't it simply come down to whether you believe Beltran's knees will hold up or they won't? The $20 limit on him looks too much like last year at this time. If you buy that he's healthy enough for 500 PA's then he's easily worth closer to $25, especially in an OBP league. If you don't think he's healthy then you drop out of bidding after $12. Hedging lands yo in fourth place. No?

Mar 11, 2013 07:37 AM

rating: 0

Mike Gianella

BP staff

For me, the purpose of the bid limit is to be as agnostic as possible with most players. If I think Ryan Braun is going to put up a $50 season and the market's paying $40, that tells me that I'm probably being too optimistic and should probably put down a $45 bid limit. On the other end of the spectrum, if I loathe someone like Beltran and when the gavel sounds for someone else at $12 my stomach hurts, then that price is too low. My hope with the bid is that I'm building in a little profit with each player. Twenty-three for Beltran is still on the optimistic side of the spectrum, and what I'm saying with the bid is I think he'll hold up. If he doesn't and I only get 300-350 PAs I hope they're good ones and I won't take a bath. The bid tries to factor all of this in.

Mar 11, 2013 08:27 AM

Robotey

Fair enough. Your stomach turning when the gavel sounds comment resonates with veteran auction participants for sure. Don't know what's worse: watching a rival score a potential bargain or getting stuck with a player you didn't want when you bid against said rival to prevent him obtaining that bargain.

Mar 11, 2013 08:54 AM

rating: 0

pobothecat

Mike -- I'm confused by the table. I see that last week's addition had tabs, so I'm guessing this is ... what, the average price of all your expert auctions? But you mention that Revere went for $20 and here he's listed at $6. (Adam Eaton $2, Torii Huner $1?) Please forgive my failure to grasp what I'm sure is obvious to everyone else --- but what am I looking at here? Thanks.

Mar 11, 2013 15:58 PM

rating: 0

pobothecat

(edition, not addition)

Mar 11, 2013 15:58 PM

rating: 0

BarryR

These numbers are for single league auctions. If you click on the NL Only tab, you'll see these adjusted prices (or AL Only, for those guys). Now whether it makes a lot of sense for a player to be a $16 player in a single league while being only $2 in a mixed (Eaton) or $13 and $1 (Venable) is a subject worthy of some discussion.

Mar 11, 2013 17:07 PM

rating: 0

Behemoth

I think it does make sense. I mean these guys are waiver wire stuff in standard mixed leagues, but they have significant value in NL only because they get 500ABs and they put up reasonable numbers of counting stats.

Mar 12, 2013 03:06 AM

rating: 0

swarmee

In usual years, a $1 mixed league player is an approx $10 player in an only, so it's not far off.

Mar 12, 2013 04:01 AM

rating: 0

Mike Gianella

BP staff

You're looking at the mixed values. I'm talking about Revere in NL-only.

Mar 11, 2013 17:31 PM

pobothecat

Thanks

Mar 12, 2013 09:14 AM

rating: 0

hyprvypr

For my points league there is just nothing available... These lists are useless like most: Samardja over Beckett? I have no idea how you come to that...

Mar 13, 2013 19:06 PM

rating: 0

Mike Gianella

BP staff

What are your point values?

Mar 14, 2013 09:18 AM

Robotey

Anyone got a link for the NL LABR results?

Mar 14, 2013 07:53 AM

rating: 0

Mike Gianella

BP staff

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/fantasy/2013/03/05/nl-labr-overview/1965015/

Mar 14, 2013 09:17 AM

Robotey

thanks

Mar 14, 2013 12:34 PM

rating: 0

Robotey

LABR Draft - wow - that's a lot pitchers between $15 and $20

Mar 14, 2013 12:38 PM

rating: 0

warpigs

Mike, I play in a league where saves and runs scored aren't counted, 4x4...any thoughts on a strategy for how I might adjust your numbers for a league with those variables? Especially on the pitching side, PECOTA/PFM isn't really doing it for me.

Mar 14, 2013 20:07 PM

rating: 0

Mike Gianella

BP staff

What are the categories? Is it Wins, ERA, WHIP, K and BA, HR, RBI, SB?

Mar 15, 2013 04:37 AM

warpigs

Yes, you got it right.

Mar 15, 2013 07:26 AM

rating: 0

swarmee

The PFM should work perfectly in that situation: closers/relievers will be almost worthless, and hitter values will look like the newest 4x4 article he wrote.

Are you allocating enough money to pitchers? How does PFM fail you? Or does it give you answers you're not expecting?

Mar 15, 2013 17:07 PM

rating: 0

warpigs

I'm allocating 30% to pitchers. There seems to be very little in value difference between SPs on PFM, except for the very top tiers, that's my main issue. The problem I gather is that PFM is apparently super conservative with W's with most being assigned between 10 and 12. Therefore PFM doesn't offer much separation between them. I think Paul's bid values would probably be more valuable to me that PFM so I was looking into whether it could be adapted for a 4x4.

Mar 15, 2013 17:24 PM

rating: 0

swarmee

Ah, that's correct. That is a "limitation" of the PECOTA projections. Some pitchers will get 20 wins, but no true projection system knows which one. So PECOTA goes ultra-conservative when it comes to wins, based on regression to the mean. However, if all your competitors are paying $30 to the guys projected to get 18-20 wins, they'll most likely lose value compared to their auction price. If you buy the tier of good ERA/WHIP/K pitchers on bad teams, you'll lead in those categories and anyone who gets wins will out-earn what you spent on them. If this is how your league drafts, you may end up spending 80% on your hitters in this scenario, and "ditch wins".

Mar 15, 2013 18:54 PM

rating: 0

warpigs

Thanks. I may end up giving that a try - especially on my NL only side because my potential keepers are basically mediocre or slightly worse. I appreciate the tip.

Mar 17, 2013 08:17 AM

rating: 0

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<< Previous Article
Raising Aces: Under th... (03/08)

<< Previous Column

Fantasy Auction Values... (03/04)

Next Column >>

Fantasy Auction Values... (03/18)

Next Article >>

Top 100 Dynasty League... (03/11)

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