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March 7, 2013

Prospects Will Break Your Heart

Atlanta Braves Top 10 Prospects

by Jason Parks

State of the Farm: “I look at you all see the love there that's sleeping.”

Prospect rankings primer

The Top Ten

  1. RHP Julio Teheran
  2. RHP J.R. Graham
  3. RHP Lucas Sims
  4. RHP Mauricio Cabrera
  5. C Christian Bethancourt
  6. LHP Sean Gilmartin
  7. SS Jose Peraza
  8. LHP Alex Wood
  9.  2B Tommy La Stella
  10. LHP Luis Merejo

1. Julio Teheran
Position: RHP
DOB: 01/27/1991
Height/Weight: 6’2’’ 175 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: International free agent, 2007, Colombia
2012 Stats: 5.08 era (131 IP, 146 H, 97 K, 43 BB) at Triple-A Gwinnett; 5.68 ERA (6.1 IP, 5 H, 5 K, 1 BB) at major-league level
The Tools: 6 FB; 6+ CH

What Happened in 2012: The high-ceiling arm continued to struggle with his command and the execution of a breaking ball, which caused his prospect stock to drop.

Strengths: Easy/fluid arm; excellent extension; fastball works 89-94; plus offering; changeup can be money pitch; fastball disguise with excellent arm speed and late action; several sources put a 7 on the pitch.

Weaknesses: Command struggles; can fall out of delivery; fastball can straighten out, especially up in the zone; breaking ball inconsistency; shows slower CB with 12/6, but it’s often too loose; harder upper-70s breaker has two-plane movement, but similar arm speed issues that cause it to slurve.

Overall Future Potential: 6; no. 2/3 starter

Explanation of Risk: Moderate risk; major-league quality floor, but breaking ball and command need refinement to reach rotation ceiling.

Fantasy Future: With two plus pitches, Teheran has the stuff to be an impact starter; good strikeout potential at peak with delivery/arm to handle workload.

The Year Ahead: One of the more frustrating young arms in the game, Teheran was once on the fast track to the top of the rotation, but the upper minors exposed his fringe breaking stuff and his command issues. The arm is still loose and live, and the fastball/changeup combo gives him the firepower to achieve major-league success, but several sources question the ultimate ceiling and the chance to reach it. If Teheran can add some movement to his fastball, continue to execute a high-quality changeup, and find comfort and utility with either of his breaking ball looks, he can still develop into a no. 2 type at the highest level. But the future isn’t as clear and defined as it once appeared for the Colombian righty.

Major league ETA: 2011

2. J.R. Graham
Position: RHP
DOB: 01/14/1990
Height/Weight: 6’0’’ 185 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: 4th round, 2011 draft, Santa Clara University (Santa Clara, CA)
2012 Stats: 2.63 ERA (102.2 IP, 88 H, 68 K, 17 BB) at High-A Lynchburg; 3.18 ERA (45.1 IP, 35 H, 42 K, 17 BB) at Double-A Mississippi
The Tools: 7 FB; 6 SL; 5 potential CH

What Happened in 2012: Making his full-season debut, Graham shoved it in High-A and eventually found his way to Double-A, where the diminutive righty’s stuff seemed to improve with each start.

Strengths: Big-time arm strength; can absolutely bring it; fastball has heavy life and velo, working 93-97 in starts; can sit 96-98 in bursts; impact pitch; slider is plus offering; can manipulate break length; longer in the 83-85 range; can push it to the low-90s with late cut to the glove side; attacks the zone; fearless competitor; good overall command profile.

Weaknesses: Lacks height; fastball gives him wiggle room, but needs to work down to create angle; changeup not on same level as slider; can overthrow pitch; shows good vertical life, but command of offering comes and goes.

Overall Future Potential: 6; no. 2/3 starter

Explanation of Risk: Moderate; has high floor with FB/SL mix; has the arsenal and command to start.

Fantasy Future: Has bat-missing stuff and groundball tendencies; has a good chance of developing into mid-rotation arm with a slightly higher projection; could be frontline relief arm.

The Year Ahead: Graham is legit. He lacks prototypical size, but he’s an athletic arm with impact stuff; the fastball is a beast and the slider is a very promising secondary offering. With a good command profile and feel for the splitter-like changeup, he has all the components to start. He’s going to get undervalued by some because of the size, but this is a future impact arm and he could see the majors in 2013.

Major league ETA: 2013

3. Lucas Sims
Position: RHP
DOB: 05/10/1994
Height/Weight: 6’1’’ 200 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: 1st round, 2012 draft, Brookwood High School (Snellville, GA)
2012 Stats: 1.29 ERA (7 IP, 2 H, 10 K, 1 BB) at complex-level GCL; 4.33 ERA (27 IP, 26 H, 29 K, 12 BB) at rookie-level Danville
The Tools: 6 FB; 6 potential CB; 5+ potential CH

What Happened in 2012: 21st overall pick in the 2012 draft, Sims certainly looked the part in short-season ball, showing bat-missing stuff from a clean, athletic delivery.

Strengths: Very good athlete; easy delivery; natural; works with a plus fastball; velo in the low-90s and can spike in the mid-90s; some life; multiple breaking ball looks; curve/slider; multiple sources put a future 6 on the CB; good depth and shows good feel for commanding it; can turn over a projectable changeup.

Weaknesses: Mixed opinion on physical/arsenal projection; several sources questioned the ultimate upside; battle of the breaking ball: which one can step forward as true bat-missing weapon; loose in the zone with fastball; can work up.

Overall Future Potential: 6; no. 2/3 starter

Explanation of Risk: High risk; long road to the show; projection is debatable.

Fantasy Future: Could develop into league-average starter; has potential for more; has pitchability and good raw stuff; could develop in a number of ways.

The Year Ahead: The 18-year-old Sims is ready to make the jump to the full-season level, and in turn, start his journey up prospect lists. While his projection is a subject of debate, his track record of success on the hill is well documented and respected. One source said it best: “Sims knows how to stand on the mound and go to work.” With the potential for three above average pitches and a good command profile, Sims could be sitting atop this list in short order. Lots to like with this arm.

Major league ETA: 2016

4. Mauricio Cabrera
Position: RHP
DOB: 09/22/1993
Height/Weight: 6’2’’ 180 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: International free agent, 2010, Dominican Republic
2012 Stats: 2.97 ERA (57.2 IP, 45 H, 48 K, 23 BB) at rookie-level Danville
The Tools: 7+ FB; 6 potential CH; 5 potential CB

What Happened in 2012: In his stateside debut, Cabrera turned heads with the strength in his right arm, routinely pumping fastballs in the mid-90s and touching triple digits on the radar gun.

Strengths: Elite arm strength; explosive fastball; works anywhere from 91-97; has touched 99-100; very loose arm; projectable; good feel for present changeup; above-average potential; can spin slurvy breaking ball.

Weaknesses: Feel for arsenal, but raw; will overthrow fastball; command is loose; secondary arsenal lacks high-end projection; changeup can get too firm and lose action; breaking ball is in the hand, but inconsistent and below average.

Overall Future Potential: 6; no. 2/3 starter

Explanation of Risk: High risk; short-season resume; secondary arsenal needs full-grade jumps.

Fantasy Future: High-impact fastball will miss bats in either bullpen or rotation; very easy stuff; if secs step forward, the ceiling is up in a major-league rotation.

The Year Ahead: Cabrera is the next big name arm coming up in the Braves system, and a strong showing at the full-season level will pour that status in concrete. The arm strength is ridiculous, and when he learns to harness that beast, he will start missing more bats. The changeup is his best secondary pitch, and the breaking ball will need to take a big step forward to keep the rotation projection afloat, but he has some feel for craft and several sources think he could end up with at least an average curve or slider to go along with a plus potential changeup and a plus-plus fastball.

Major league ETA: 2016

5. Christian Bethancourt
Position: C
DOB: 09/02/1991
Height/Weight: 6’2’’ 220 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: International free agent, 2008, Panama
2012 Stats: .243/.275/.291 at Double-A Mississippi (71 games)
The Tools: 8 arm strength; 6 glove; 6 raw

What Happened in 2012: A disappointing Double-A campaign for the toolsy Panamanian, as the contact ability and approach weren’t up to the challenge of the level.

Strengths: Elite pop times; routinely pops sub 1.7; 8-grade arm; fast release; good footwork; balance; glove is plus; receiving skills have improved; high-end defensive profile behind the plate; shows promising raw pop; line-drive stroke; good athlete for size.

Weaknesses: Approach to hitting is well below average; doesn’t have a lot of swing-and-miss, but reactionary hitter who doesn’t work counts or show on-base ability; contact is soft; hit/power tools play down against live pitching; five o’clock offensive profile; makeup has been questioned by a few sources.

Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division player

Explanation of Risk: Extreme; has played at Double-A level, but major question marks about offensive profile; bat is likely to play far below projection.

Fantasy Future: Has the potential to be an impact player, with elite arm strength behind the plate and some pop in the bat. However, the bat is very light in games; likely down-the-lineup role.

The Year Ahead: When the Baseball Prospectus 101 came out, Bethancourt received some love, finding himself ahead of org-mates Sims and Cabrera on the list. But a deeper dig revealed greater concerns about the offensive profile, pushing him down the team list. The arm strength and overall defensive profile is enough to put Bethancourt at the major-league level, but the stick is empty and the approach just crushes his value. If he can bring a plan to the plate and coerce the raw pop in his bat into game action, he’s a legit impact talent. If not, he’s just a backup catcher with all-star level catch/throw skills and a wasted bat. Another turn in Double-A could produce better results and hopefully a step forward at the plate. He’s only 21, so hope is not lost.

Major league ETA: 2014

6. Sean Gilmartin
Position: LHP
DOB: 05/08/1990
Height/Weight: 6’2’’ 190 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted/Acquired: 1st round, 2011 draft, Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL)
2012 Stats: 3.54 ERA (119.1 IP, 111 H, 86 K, 26 BB) at Double-A Mississippi; 4.78 ERA (37.2 IP, 41 H, 25 K, 13 BB) at Triple-A Gwinnett
The Tools: 5 FB; 5 SL; 5+ CH

What Happened in 2012: True to form, Gilmartin made 27 starts, logged 157 innings, and forced weak contact at two levels in the upper minors.

Strengths: Pitchability; pedestrian fastball velocity, but can move pitch around and add/subtract; above average changeup is effective; keeps righties off fastball; has good sink and arm-side fade; slider flashes above average, works as average offering; good two-plane slice; above average command profile; makes it work.

Weaknesses: Lacks true plus pitch; relies on sequence and location; pitches to weak contact; not big bat misser; curveball is get-me-over/change-the-sight-line pitch; will pitch backwards off changeup.

Overall Future Potential: 5; no. 4 starter

Explanation of Risk: Low risk; mature arsenal; pitchability; already achieved Triple-A level.

Fantasy Future: Back-end innings chewer; league average at best; steady.

The Year Ahead: A crowded rotation could keep Gilmartin in Triple-A for a healthy chunk of the 2013 season, but an opening is only an injury away, and the 22-year-old southpaw has the makeup and arsenal to step up to the highest level and hold his own. The stuff is average to solid average, but he makes it work by moving the ball around and changing speeds, keeping hitters from sitting on his upper-80s/low 90s fastball. It’s not a sexy profile, but dependable innings eaters have a lot of value, and Gilmartin looks like a safe bet to live up to that prophecy.

Major league ETA: 2013

7. Jose Peraza
Position: SS
DOB: 04/30/1994
Height/Weight: 5’11’’ 170 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: International free agent, 2010, Venezuela
2012 Stats: .318/.348/.424 at complex-level GCL (21 games); .281/.351/.339 at rookie-level Danville (32 games)
The Tools: 6+ arm; 6+ run; 6 potential glove; 5 potential hit

What Happened in 2012: After a 66-game clip in the Dominican Summer League in 2011, Peraza made his stateside debut in 2012, showing more stick than expected to go along with his plus defensive tools.

Strengths: Impact defensive tools at shortstop; can really play the position and projects to stay in that role; arm is easy plus; several sources put a 7 on the tool; slick actions; natural feel for the position; easy plus run; will find more consistency as body gets stronger; efficient baserunner; good overall approach; hit tool has some projection; has contact ability.

Weaknesses: Promising glove, but early in development; fundamentals to improve through repetition; can play too fast/too eager; contact-oriented swing that might play empty; long way to go.

Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division player

Explanation of Risk: Extreme risk; rookie-level resume; loud defensive tools; wait-and-see on the bat; will play 2013 season at 19.

Fantasy Future: Has contact ability and legit wheels, so should be able to hit for average and steal bases; very efficient; doesn’t get caught stealing; limited pop; table setter or down-the-lineup offensive profile.

The Year Ahead: Peraza has a lot of fans in the scouting community, and if he takes a step forward at the full-season level, his stock will soar. He has true shortstop ability, which makes any offensive production gravy on the steak. With a short, clean stroke and serious speed, Peraza is going to keep defenses alert, and if he reaches base, he’s always going to be a threat to steal and steal with high success rate. He has instincts for the game, and if he can add some strength and show legitimacy with the stick, this is a big-time prospect just waiting to bust out. Keep an eye on this player.

Major league ETA: 2017

8. Alex Wood
Position: LHP
DOB: 01/12/1991
Height/Weight: 6’4’’ 215 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted/Acquired: 2nd round, 2012 draft, University of Georgia (Athens, GA)
2012 Stats: 2.22 ERA (52.2 IP, 39 H, 52 K, 14 BB) at Low-A Rome
The Tools: 6 FB; 6 potential CH

What Happened in 2012: Wood jumped from college to full-season ball, using his brand of low-slot funkiness to miss Low-A bats.

Strengths: Good size/strength; lots of deception in the delivery; funky mechanics that he is able to repeat; from lower slot, fastball is crisp and heavy; pounds lower zone; bowling ball weight and very hard to lift; can go get velo in bursts; changeup is plus; plays with fastball and offers deception out of the hand; follows fastball but has some fading action in addition to the sink; strike-thrower; mature approach.

Weaknesses: Mechanics are funky and might not play with heavy workload; drop-and-explode type with violent head jerk; max effort; breaking ball is below average; only average at best projection; mostly FB/CH; majority of sources put relief profile on player.

Overall Future Potential: High 5; late-inning reliever/setup

Explanation of Risk: Low risk; mature approach; strong, mature frame; two now plus pitches.

Fantasy Future: Out of the ‘pen, could be effective setup option, with easy plus fastball from the left side and a very good changeup.

The Year Ahead: Wood will be developed as a starter, but will most likely end up as a power arm in the back of a bullpen. His mechanics are violent and they scare small children, but so far his command has been good and he’s been effective in four- and five-inning spots. He doesn’t have a go-to breaking ball, but the changeup can miss bats and he will bust it out against both lefties and righties. Relief prospects are often a hard sell, but when you have a setup future and a low risk factor, the value is high. If he stays healthy, Wood looks like a future major-league arm.

Major league ETA: 2014

9. Tommy La Stella
Position: 2B
DOB: 01/31/1989
Height/Weight: 5’11’’ 185 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted/Acquired: 8th round, 2011 draft, Coastal Carolina University (Conway, SC)
2012 Stats: .231/.444/.615 at complex level GCL (5 games); .302/.386/.460 at
High-A Lynchburg (85 games)
The Tools: 5+ potential hit; 5 glove

What Happened in 2012: While older than most prospects in High-A and not especially toolsy, La Stella continued to do what he does best: hit.

Strengths: Above-average hitability; good bat control; gap hitter with some pop; very mature approach; walks more than he strikeouts; not a platoon hitter; solid hands/actions at second; max-effort player.

Weaknesses: Lacks left-side tools; arm is below average; below average run; has some pop, but isn’t big power threat; hit tool only carrying tool; 24 years old and has yet to play in Double-A.

Overall Future Potential: 5; second-division player

Explanation of Risk: Moderate risk; physically mature; has above average hit tool; has yet to play Double-A level.

Fantasy Future: Hit-tool second baseman; limited offensive profile; lacks over-the-fence power; lacks speed; should hit for batting average with some on-base skills.

The Year Ahead: The Double-A test is upon La Stella. Hit tool is his only carrying tool, so he will need to keep raking to stay on the radar. He lacks a left-side profile and he can’t hit in the middle of the order, but he can drive the ball in the gaps and play a passable second base. He’s a max-effort gamer type, but his future is tied to his stick, and if he can’t hit against more advanced pitching, his major-league future will be in doubt.

Major league ETA: 2014

10. Luis Merejo
Position: LHP
DOB: 10/08/1994
Height/Weight: 6’0’’ 175 lbs.

Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted/Acquired: International free agent, 2011, Dominican Republic
2012 Stats: 4.61 ERA (41 IP, 38 H, 53 K, 9 BB) at complex level GCL
The Tools: 6 potential FB; 5+ potential CB/CH

What Happened in 2012: As a 17-year-old, Merejo stepped up to the complex-level and struck out 53 batters in only 41 innings.

Strengths: Advanced pitchability; 5/6 fastball; works upper-80s/low-90s; good late arm-side movement; flashes average-to-above-average curve/change; plus command potential.

Weaknesses: Needs to get stronger/hold velo; lacks size; curveball can get too loose; mechanics on secondary stuff can get deliberate; entire arsenal can get soft/lack intensity; projections aren’t crazy.

Overall Future Potential: 5; no. 3/4 starter

Explanation of Risk: Extreme; complex-league resume; long way to go.

Fantasy Future: Lefty with three pitches and good feel; could be mid-rotation type; perhaps more if arsenal ticks up.

The Year Ahead: No need to rush the 18-year-old, so a jump to full-season ball isn’t a given. However, with a solid arsenal and a good feel for craft, Merejo could handle such an aggressive assignment. He lacks size and needs to add strength, but his fastball has some life and should eventually settle in as a consistent plus pitch. The curve and change will flash above-average potential, and with a sound delivery and command profile, Merejo should be able to execute the offerings. He’s a long way off, but you have to like the arm and the feel for pitching.

Major league ETA: 2017

Prospects on the Rise:

1. RHP Cody Martin: 23-year-old command/control pitchers aren’t often rising prospects, but with a strong Double-A campaign in 2013, Martin could crack the top 10 in this system. With a well-rounded arsenal and good pitchability, Martin can not only keep hitters off balance but he can also miss a fair amount of bats. 

2. RHP Andry Ubiera: 19-year-old Dominican power arm, Ubiera is inching toward a breakout in 2013. He can already work 92-93 with a lively fastball that can touch 95, and shows feel for a plus potential curveball. When he puts together the command and finds some consistency, he is going to take off.

3. 3B Edward Salcedo: Every year scouts ponder the breakout potential of Salcedo, who always seems to be on the cusp of figuring it out and taking the next step in his development. Unfortunately, in 2012, much like in 2011, Salcedo teased the potential but fell short of the expectations his raw offensive tools suggest is possible. It’s a huge year for the young Dominican, as the Double-A test will either pass Salcedo to the next prospect tier or remove all doubt about his weaknesses.

Factors on the Farm (Prospects likely to contribute at the ML level in 2013

1. C/IF/OF: Evan Gattis: The feel-good story of 2011 continued the narrative in High-A, where the 26-year-old Texan started the season by abusing Carolina League pitching to the tune of a 1.289 OPS. Reality entered the story after a promotion to Double-A, as Gattis was still able to muscle balls out of the park but pitchers with stuff were able to find the holes in his swing. The narrative going forward is anybody’s guess, but at some point in 2013, the setting with likely shift to the major-league level, where the unlikely prospect will get a taste of the bright lights, even if its in a bench role.

2. OF Todd Cunningham: Versatile grinder that can handle all three outfield spots and swing a good stick with secondary skills. Cunningham isn’t set up to be an impact player, but he’s a future major-league contributor, either as a bench outfielder or perhaps a second-division starter.

3. 1B/3B Joe Terdoslavich: Switch-hitting bat-first type with a really great name and a chance to contribute if called upon in 2013. While he’s unlikely to find a home as a major-league regular, his bat should be enough to carve out a career as a bench player, one that can play in multiple defensive spots, although not at a high (or even solid-average) level.

Top 10 Talents 25 and Younger (born 4/1/1987 or later)

  1. Justin Upton
  2. Jason Heyward
  3. Craig Kimbrel
  4. Andrelton Simmons
  5. Julio Teheran
  6. J.R. Graham
  7. Freddie Freeman
  8. Mike Minor
  9. Lucas Sims
  10. Christian Bethancourt

When an organization can trade off a promising young arm and still have plenty percolating through the pipeline, it speaks volumes about drafting and development strategies. The Braves flexed their muscles in the offseason, sending four minor leaguers, including highly regarded right-hander Randall Delgado, to Arizona for Justin Upton. Though Upton’s body of work to date has yo-yoed, the talented outfielder is the type of bat that can solidify the middle of a lineup for years to come. Fellow outfielder Jason Heyward rebounded from a tough sophomore campaign, flashing the power and overall skills in 2012 that made him the top prospect in the game a few years ago. The two can do a lot of damage to opposing teams as they continue to ramp toward their peaks. Closer Craig Kimbrel combines uncanny control and bat-missing stuff to own the ninth inning. The reliever provides the necessary stability in a bullpen that allows everyone else’s role to follow suit.

The first prospect on this list checks in at the fifth slot. Julio Teheran’s explosive fastball and deceptive changeup give him a strong foundation for keeping hitters at bay multiple times through a lineup. The consistent crispness of his curveball, along with the harnessing of the command are the hurdles in front of him for achieving his ceiling. 2011 draftee J.R. Graham has risen quickly into the upper minors and is another representation of the Braves’ desire to load up on arms. Graham’s sinking fastball displays excellent movement and downward action, lending the projection of a solid no. 3 starter at the big-league level with continued progression polishing off his arsenal.  

Homegrown talents Freddie Freeman, Mike Minor, and Andrelton Simmons are cost-controlled options that allow flexibility in roster construction, along with the profiles of average major leaguers. Lucas Sims is the name to keep an eye on.  The 18-year-old right-handed pitcher enters his first full professional season loaded with promise, along with the combination of raw stuff and polish at an early age to emerge at the top of the system’s list as the developmental markers are being met. —Chris Mellen               

A Parting Thought: The system as a whole isn’t crazy deep, and the lean is certainly arm heavy, but the top tier in the system is quite strong, and if promising young prospects like Sims, Cabrera, and Peraza take a developmental step forward, a mid-tier farm can transform into something more substantial by this time next year.

Last year's Braves rankings

Special thanks to Mark Anderson, Chris Mellen, and Nick Faleris for their input and influence on this list.

Jason Parks is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Jason's other articles. You can contact Jason by clicking here

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