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February 26, 2013

Fantasy Beat

Budget Allocations and Pitching-Staff Outcomes

by Jason Collette

Last week, we reviewed how the experts split their money in the LABR and ToutWars auctions in 2012. While the winners each spent at least 30 percent of their budget on pitching, other teams that spent even more did much worse while some who spent less nearly won the league.

The next step is seeing the theory in action. In a perfect world, the totals needed for each of the categories would be rather stable so we could accurately forecast exactly what we would need to finish within the top three spots of each category at season’s end. Since fantasy baseball is never that perfect, we are forced to use the most recent history.

The final standings from the 15-team Mixed ToutWars league are cleanly preserved for us on the OnRoto site. MLB.com’s Cory Schwartz easily won the league, placing in the top three in five of the 10 categories and securing a top-five spot in all but one of the rest. The table below shows what was needed to finish a tick above second place in each category, as well as what it took to capture third place.

We learned last week that each of the winners in the LABR and ToutWars leagues spent at least 30 percent of their auction budget on pitching. What we did not see is what that kind of pitching staff would look like on paper, statistically, coming out of the auction. Using the player projection data and auction values from our Player Forecast Manager, we can piece together a pitching staff based on set dollar amounts to see what kind of pitching staff one could put together in a vacuum, assuming everyone held to the same dollar amounts. (Note that the ratios below are approximations, rather than exact computations.)

The 75/25 split:
In this popular split, an owner spends just $65 on his pitching staff. This is an example of the type of nine-man pitching staff and stats that could be assembled based on our PFM values and projections:

This pitching staff would have finished no higher than eighth place in any one category.  While a team that spends 75 percent of its budget on hitters may have a very strong offense, it has shortcomings that must be addressed during the season either via free agency or trade.