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February 15, 2013

Fantasy Freestyle

Mike Trout and Regression Obsession

by Mike Gianella

Like many fantasy players, I spend little if any time during the season worrying about what a player will earn the following year. Even in keeper formats, I don’t invest a significant amount of time trying to figure out future earnings.

While I didn’t have an exact dollar value assigned to Mike Trout for 2013 back in October, I assumed that I’d have him ranked first or second in AL-only formats and first, second, or third in mixed formats. Besides Ryan Braun and Miguel Cabrera, there were few players who seemed capable of putting up big enough fantasy numbers to come close to Trout.

I assumed my thinking would represent conventional wisdom, and that nearly every expert would agree that Trout would be at worst a top-10 player in mixed formats. However, this has not been the case. Although they don’t represent the majority, a number of experts have given Trout a thumbs-down review for 2013. These recommendations have advised anything from moderate to extreme caution with Trout. One expert went so far as to say that Mike Trout would only be the eighth-best outfielder in fantasy this year.

Instead of simply dismissing the anti-Trout crowd as off-base, I thought I’d take a closer look at Trout and determine whether or not the regression argument has any merit.

Mike Trout’s Sophomore Season: Establishing a Baseline

Most of the negativity surrounding Trout has been very vague. Few if any specific examples of comparable players have been provided, and those examples that have been offered have typically been players who don’t fit Trout’s profile in terms of age and/or skillset.

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18 comments have been left for this article.

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Shawn

Early report out of Angels camp has Trout reporting heavier than last year. Since a lot of Trout's elite value is tied up in stolen bases, I'm curious how you think this might affect his numbers.

Feb 15, 2013 06:30 AM

rating: 0

Mike Gianella

BP staff

If Trout maintains that weight and is sitting there on Opening Day, I'd be somewhat concerned. I suspect that he's going to lose some of that between now and Opening Day.

Feb 15, 2013 06:56 AM

78wasGreat

Excellent analysis. My thoughts exactly. Those who don't wish to select Trout within the first couple of picks or spend high $$ on him are missing the point in my opinion; Trout will most likely regress, but his floor is higher than almost any other player in the league due to his speed.

I'd rather have Trout's 20HR and 45SB with a good possibility for more than, say, Votto's 30HR and 100RBI.

Feb 15, 2013 06:36 AM

rating: 1

AndrewBall

I completely agree. Great first piece.

Feb 15, 2013 07:46 AM

rating: 0

Deadheadbrewer

Thank you for using some AL-only dollar values. Sometimes the "only" leagues get ignored.

Feb 15, 2013 08:08 AM

rating: 0

benekelly

Every pice I've seen talking about Trout's regression has pointed to his (presumably unsustainable) BABIP. Why didn't you see that as a factor?

Feb 15, 2013 08:17 AM

rating: 0

Mike Gianella

BP staff

I kind of, sort of addressed BABIP in Table 2. I think that Trout's batting average and BABIP are both likely to slip. However, given Trout's overall skill set I think it's possible that he has a higher baseline to work from than an average/above average hitter. His speed should also help him keep his BABIP high even if it does indeed regress. But, yes, I would expect some slippage in AVG/BABIP in 2013.

Feb 15, 2013 08:34 AM

Slyke18

Great first piece, Mike. Fantastic analysis, I look forward to reading your future posts!

Feb 15, 2013 08:40 AM

rating: 0

mtgannon

Great first piece. I have been listening to a lot of experts in preparing for my drafts (particularly my 15-team NFBC draft since Trout will be kept in my other 2 leagues) and trying to figure out where I would be comfortable drafting him. I still probably think I will have him 3rd overall, but in a 15-team NFBC snake draft, I think I would much rather pick in the 7-10 range than in the top 3 anyways.

Feb 15, 2013 10:03 AM

rating: 0

jcutiger

What do make, if anything, of the report that Trout is up to 240 lbs? Steals seems like the # that would have the least regression, but that's a lot of weight and could impact how much he runs. The steals are what separates him from others that are 5-tool guys IMO.

Feb 15, 2013 19:07 PM

rating: 1

jcutiger

Sorry, see that was already asked.

Feb 15, 2013 19:07 PM

rating: 1

saigonsam

I am curious as to how many of those 113 players who earned more than $30 in the previous season, did it while missing the first month of the year. I agree he may slip in value on a per game basis, but the added playing time should more than make up for this difference.

Feb 15, 2013 21:38 PM

rating: 0

Mike Gianella

BP staff

Table 4 doesn't represent the players who earned $30 the year before. Rather, it lists the 113 players who cost $30 or more in that auction and reviews how they did.

But, yes, to your point there are very few examples of players that missed a fair amount of time and earned $30. And I agree, the additional games that Trout will play should be taken into account. Part of the exercise above took Trout's 2012 numbers and blew them up over the course of a full season to get a flavor for this.

Feb 16, 2013 07:25 AM

saigonsam

Thanks for the reply. The article did go into it, but it seemed to me that the missed month was not considered in the conclusion.

Feb 16, 2013 17:00 PM

rating: 0

saigonsam

I guess what I am trying to say is your statement "History tells us that Trout is extremely likely to earn less than he did in 2012" is not true because I seriously doubt many other of those +$30 players missed a month of the season. I'd guess many of the declines the next year were a result of injury.

Trout's baseline is 139 games played. If you gave me an over/under of 139 games played for Trout in 2013, I'd bet the over.

Feb 16, 2013 17:14 PM

rating: 0

bmwilliams84

Great article. I'm looking forward to reading you throughout the season.

Feb 16, 2013 05:35 AM

rating: 0

greenengineer

I think you miss a key point. The chance that Trout plays 162 games and is mediocre is pretty small. But what about the chance that he tears his ACL in April and is out for the year (or similar)? To me, that's the biggest risk of any $30+ player - you've put too much of your eggs in one basket.

Feb 16, 2013 06:28 AM

rating: -2

Mike Gianella

BP staff

Table 4 covers some of this ground, albeit in a rough way. Most of the players we expect will earn $30+ will lose their owners money. Whether or not you should spend $40, $35, or even $30 on a player is a discussion worth having (and there are good arguments on both sides), but the primary thrust argument isn't that Trout is worth $40 but rather that nearly every player at the top of the heap is subject to regression and/or injury. If you don't want to pay Trout $40 in an auction format because you believe everyone at that price is a risk, that's a fair point. However, if you want to ding Trout because of injury/regression, you have to ding everyone else as well.

Feb 16, 2013 06:58 AM

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