One item that should also be considered, as this isn't a free agency deal: it's also partially a reward for services rendered. For his career to date, Felix has been very underpaid. I'm certain that aspect was part of the negotiations, and Seattle's management would be hard pressed to argue against that point.

Another aspect to consider is the "keeping his fans" happy part. I'm guessing Seattle's marketing group was able to demonstrate pretty easily that tying up Hernandez for the foreseeable future would help with a variety of merchandising for the next several years. This is not just about looking at dollars per win for this specific player. I could imagine that a prolonged contract discussion in 2013 and 2014 would eat into Hernandez jersey sales, for example. And I can't imagine the Smoak jerseys are flying off the shelves.

In other words, while Seattle is taking on considerable risk, and this contract in 2019 could be an albatross, I think it's unlikely that Felix Hernandez's P&L for the rest of his career will end up red.

Out of curiosity, are there any studies that show that pitchers who throw a lot of innings in pitcher's parks tend to remain healthier than pitchers who throw in non-pitchers parks?

I mean, sure Felix throws a lot of innings, but it's not like he's racking up 140+ pitch count games with the bases loaded in Coors Field, right?

This same franchise was risk adverse when facing Randy Johnson's impending free agency and sold nine years too early, leaving the franchise's best pitcher to enter the Hall of Fame as a Diamondback. This M's fan is glad to see them not repeating that mistake again. Risk aversion is sensible but we're talking about a pitcher who will be not much older than CC Sabathia is now when his contract expires. All kinds of things are possible but this is a calculated risk worth taking.

I just don't see the risk. They got him through his prime, and they're not getting the later portion of his decline. He's not a man with a gimmick pitch and with the way the market works now, a bad deal doesn't look so bad 2 years down the road because the baseline gets bumped up a ridiculous amount every year. The Mariners never have been able to bid on large free agents and with the cap on the draft now, the money was just burning a hole in their pocket. It's not like the Cardinals with Pujols & Holliday when, at the time Holliday was signed, they had to choose between one or the other.

As a lifelong Mariner's fan and PNW resident, and also a sabermetric geek who's watch Felix ascent since A ball, I can say no single player means more to their team than Felix Hernandez. After Arod, Randy Johnson, even Ken Griifey all left after starting their careers here(hedging Johnson's Montreal time), Felix is finally a standout figure willing to deal with our rainy Winters and wear the knight's armor in the name of building a competitor.

He loves the area and the fans and we love him, maybe as much as we loved Griffey. All hail the King, loyalty is royalty indeed!