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February 7, 2013

Arbitration Showdown

Mock Hearing: Max Scherzer

by Maury Brown, Larry Granillo and Ben Lindbergh

It's salary arbitration season in Major League Baseball, and here at Baseball Prospectus we're holding mock hearings, arguing for or against the actual team/player filing figures before a three-person panel of certified arbitrators. We've selected 10 of this winter's most intriguing, highest-dollar cases to cover in depth over the first two weeks of February (regardless of whether the players' real-life cases remain unsettled). After each side's opening argument and rebuttal/summation below, we'll give you a chance to vote on what you think the result should be before seeing the panel's decision. For more on the arbitration process, read the series intro by Atlanta Braves Assistant GM John Coppolella, listen to his appearance on Episode 35 of Up and In, or check out the BP Basics introduction to arbitration.

In Part Four of this 10-part series, we'll tackle Detroit Tigers pitcher Max Scherzer, who sought $7.4 million and was offered $6.05 million. Unbeknownst to our arbitrators, Scherzer and the Tigers reached a one-year settlement at the $6.725 million midpoint, avoiding arbitration.

Mock Hearing Schedule

Chase Headley [2/4]
Jason Hammel [2/5]
Shin-Soo Choo [2/6]
Max Scherzer [2/7]
Jim Johnson [2/8]
Martin Prado [2/11]
Homer Bailey [2/12]
Jordan Zimmermann [2/13]
Dexter Fowler [2/15]
Sergio Romo [2/15]

Table of Contents

The Criteria
Player's Presentation
Club's Presentation
Player's Rebuttal/Summation
Club's Rebuttal/Summation
The Reader Poll
The Panel
The Panel's Decision
The Sabermetric Perspective/Additional Commentary

The Criteria

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21 comments have been left for this article.

BP Comment Quick Links

code of conduct

Maury Brown

BP staff

Hardest case I've done.

Feb 07, 2013 07:41 AM

Shaun P.

You had a great point, though, Maury, highlighting that "What the Tigers are offering is higher than what any other starting pitcher entering his second year of salary arbitration eligibility received in 2012." But that Scherzer requested a salary that was slightly less than the average of Larry's reasonable comparables, plus that Schezer had a really good year, made it really tough for your position.

My experience with arbitration as a lawyer is that the arbitrators are most often trying to do what seems reasonable in light of what they know. Scherzer's filing amount was eminently reasonable in light of the comparables and his performance, and so he won. Jason Hammel's (for example) was not, and so he lost.

I thought you did a great job.

Feb 07, 2013 11:29 AM

rating: 1

SC

Are the clubs so obviously ignorant of important measures like K rate during these hearings? Is it really a matter of tricking the panel into thinking W/L matters more than K/9 or WHIP (not mentioned anywhere by anyone)?

Feb 07, 2013 08:03 AM

rating: 0

Ben Lindbergh

BP staff

WHIP was mentioned in the Hammel case, and my mom emailed me to ask what it was.

Feb 07, 2013 08:15 AM

jdeich

"His record, 12 wins and 11 losses for 2010, 15–9 for 2011, and 16-7 for 2010, shows consistent improvement."

Somewhere, Phil Hughes is wearing out his phone trying to book this panel. "Did you know I once won 18 games? Felix Hernandez only averages 14 wins per year, and Matt Cain only averages 12! Some silly people gave them each $20M per year! Ho, ho. P.S. I'll take only $18M, for realsies."

Feb 07, 2013 08:52 AM

rating: 2

Maury Brown

BP staff

As to WHIP... It can be used, but you risk shooting up valuable time in a hearing if you get an arbitrator that is not versed in a statistical category.

Feb 07, 2013 08:11 AM

piraino

The team side comps of Lannan, Bailey etc. were ridiculous. As soon as I saw those names, I knew there was no case to be made for the team. A welcome relief to have a hearing that I could decide easily to make me feel smart. Most of the time I'm scratching my head and feeling stupid.

Feb 07, 2013 08:47 AM

rating: 2

Maury Brown

BP staff

I've done probably a dozen mock arb comps. This one was tough as Scherzer clearly was the tops in his service class by starting pitcher. You make the best of what you have and run with it. Still...

Remember, a key factor is not always whether a player is better or worse by statistical merit, rather whether a salary sought or offered is reasonable. That's my argument.

Feb 07, 2013 08:51 AM

SC

Do you think the Tigers offer was too low?

I'd imagine that among the challenges this piece demands is arguing a position that you would not have taken. Presumably the club makes their offer after preparing a case for that offer, where in these highly instructive exercises, you're forced to try and reverse engineer the team's salary number.

In future pieces if you think the offer or demands are too low/high for what you'd want to argue, that would be another valuable insight.

Feb 07, 2013 09:06 AM

rating: 0

Maury Brown

BP staff

No, I think the number was reasonable. It's important to note that both the MLBPA and 245 Park review filing numbers very closely and make recommendations. A side in a case does not have to follow the recommendation, but there's reasons why the sides provide it....

If you're a small agency that's never done a salary arb hearing, you run the risk of filing a figure that can be way outside what is realistic. Remember, there's nothing to stop an agent from filing far over the relative comp for a player, but in doing so you run the risk of getting killed at hearing.

The mid-point serves its purpose for settlements, which is why there are so few cases that go to hearing. In this series of mock hearings, you're not arguing the mid-point as the panel rules on one figure or the other, there is no middle ground.

Feb 07, 2013 09:18 AM

R.A.Wagman

Interesting that Scherzer and the Tigers eventually agreed to a contract at exactly the mid-point, as per Cot's.

Feb 07, 2013 08:55 AM

rating: 0

Maury Brown

BP staff

This happens more often than you might think. In fact, last year there were 8 mid-point settlements:

Robert Andino ($1,300,000)
Daniel Bard ($1,612,500)
David Ortiz ($14,575,000)
Shaun Marcum ($7,725,000)
Brett Gardner ($2,800,000)
Hunter Pence ($10,400,000)
Casey McGehee ($2,537,500)
Jason Motte ($1,950,000)

Feb 07, 2013 09:13 AM

Richard Bergstrom

From what I understand, players and clubs prefer a midpoint if possible just because the arbitration hearings can lead to bad feelings.

Feb 07, 2013 10:27 AM

rating: 1

Maury Brown

BP staff

I have been told more than once that the "bad feelings" thing is overblown. Remember, what's occurring is a case for the players of a big raise as opposed to a bigger raise. Even when the player loses, he wins.

Feb 07, 2013 10:42 AM

Maury Brown

BP staff

Let me just say, that this was an incredibly enjoyable exercise and I hope BP makes this an annual series.

Feb 07, 2013 09:20 AM

andrews

Would the injury concerns have much of an impact? I would guess that his injury record is good, though they are very recent and may impact 2013.

Feb 07, 2013 09:31 AM

rating: 0

deeswan

I just want to say thanks to the BP crew for offering these mock arbitration cases to us. While I read nearly everything on the site, these cases are something that I find very compelling and I've enjoyed them so far. It is great to have BP shed some light on something that has been, by and large, a mysterious process to me.

Feb 07, 2013 09:32 AM

rating: 8

mdangelfan

Congratulations BP authors. A very original, informative, and enjoyable idea for offseason entertainment.

Feb 07, 2013 11:41 AM

rating: 3

DetroitDale

Great case.

I thought the two year v. Three year distinction on comparables was ridiculous, but the injury concern very valid. Not so much the earlier ones but A shoulder injury the pitcher describes as nagging who depends on high velocity and high strikeouts is a concern. Not enough to swing the case to the club, but a worry for a team that depends on his continued success.

On the other hand, if the off season allowed the shoulder to heal, I look forward to mad max taking the next step forward as the rest of his stats catch up to his devastating k/9 ratio.

Feb 07, 2013 14:01 PM

rating: 1

Peter Benedict

I have very much enjoyed this series.

Feb 07, 2013 20:50 PM

rating: 1

edanddom

Great job to everyone involved. This was satisfying as a reader not only for its specific subject matter (especially for Max Scherzer and any Detroit reference), but also for its relevance to negotiations and other pure business matters. Maury's point that "you risk shooting up valuable time in a hearing if you get an arbitrator that is not versed..." is valid whether it is a sports-themed arbitration or in other business matters.

Finally, this is yet another example of how one can be enlightened through the lens of baseball. That illumination is what drives me back to Baseball Prospectus time and again. Fantastic series and I look forward to more.

Feb 10, 2013 06:09 AM

rating: 0

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<< Previous Article

On the Beat: Spring He... (02/07)

<< Previous Column

Arbitration Showdown: ... (02/06)

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The BP Wayback Machine... (02/08)

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