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February 6, 2013

The Keeper Reaper

Corner Infielders for 2/6/2013

by Michael Street

Lance Berkman | Texas Rangers

Shallow (30 keepers): No
Medium (60 keepers): No
Deep (90 keepers): No
AL-only (60 keepers): Fringe
Super Deep (200 keepers): Yes

When something’s too good to be true, it probably is. That’s what Berkman’s owners should have been thinking after his bounceback from fantasy irrelevance in 2011. After earning $30.82 in 2008 (according to the PFM’s new feature that allows us to see fantasy earnings in the past five seasons), Fat Elvis ate too many peanut butter, bacon, and banana sandwiches and hit a combined .262/.384/.464 over the next two seasons, never breaking double-digit fantasy earnings.

Big Puma rebounded in a big way in 2011, posting his best OPS+ since 2006, while hitting .301/.412/.547 with his new team, the Cardinals. He earned $20.44 and seemed revived, staying off the disabled list for the first time since 2008 and shrugging off concerns that he couldn&r

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7 comments have been left for this article.

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manhaus1

(11086)

When you make the statement that prado was ranked 93rd in mixed leagues last season is any positional value built into that rank? The talk of his dollar returns in 2010 and 2012 being good for a third baseman and poor for an outfielder suggest that positional value is not accounted for in last year's rankings.

Feb 06, 2013 07:34 AM

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Michael Street

BP staff

(55771)

No, his ranking of 93rd is based entirely on his overall rating, regardless of position.

But that's why I also reference his ranking among third basemen, which is the more valuable fantasy position between 3B and OF. (I didn't consider his potential 2B and SS eligibility, since those would require a fairly low 10-game threshold that many leagues may not have.)

The PFM initially ranks players overall, but you can pull down a menu to select only players at a certain position, and you can set the qualification parameters (along with many others) on PFM's dashboard. That way, you can see how a player ranks against others at his position.

I will always try to reference whether a player's ranking is overall or within his position, using the latter ranking when I think that it's relevant to do so.

Thanks for the question!

Feb 06, 2013 10:47 AM

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manhaus1

(11086)

Thanks Michael. So, looking back to Alcides Escobar's write-up earlier this week. If I were to believe that Escobar's 64th ranking in PFM is sustainable for 2013 and beyond then I would want to keep him in a medium depth league since SS should be a relatively weak position offensively?

Feb 07, 2013 11:36 AM

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Michael Street

BP staff

(55771)

Generally speaking, yes, that's a good move. Team-specific fantasy questions always come down to variables like strategy, roster structure, and league competitiveness, so it's hard to say whether keeping Escobar is *always* a good move in leagues with 60 keepers.

But you've got the right idea about position scarcity and its relationship to PFM. I'd also lean towards keeping a fringe-y player like Escobar at a thin position like SS.

Feb 07, 2013 12:40 PM

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Rod S.

(72653)

I don't understand how you can make a keeper judgement without discussing $. For example, If you have LaRoche at $15, then I agree, not a keeper, but if you have him for $1 as I do, I would argue that he is a great bargain as a keeper. Nobody is worth keeping if the salary is too high and most starters are keepers if you have them for $1.

Feb 27, 2013 13:27 PM

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Michael Street

(55771)

Rod--

That's a great question, which led Derek Carty to cover precisely the same issue here:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19231

To summarize, there are just too many factors to make a blanket dollar value judgment about an individual player. Keeper dollar value is affected by many things, including

--league size and scoring
--roster composition
--draft budget (and how/whether it's affected by keeper value)
--keeper minimums and maximums
--opportunity cost for keeping one player over another
--individual strategy

Trying to peg a specific keeper value for a single player that can safely apply for all teams in all leagues is an exercise in futility. Even a $1 LaRoche might not be keepable if you have better CIF options, while a $15 LaRoche could be a keeper if all the superior CIF options in your league are kept by other players, and your team doesn't have another viable 1B.

Thanks for the question!

Feb 27, 2013 17:36 PM

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swarmee

(40459)

The goal of this list is mainly for redraft leagues, where you can keep 4-5 keepers or something like that per team. It has limited utility in auction leagues, but that's because it's not designed to. Other fantasy articles cover some of that and the PFM should be used for that reason as well.

Mar 24, 2013 19:16 PM

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<< Previous Article

Fantasy Beat: Comparin... (02/06)

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The Keeper Reaper: Rel... (02/05)

Next Column >>

The Keeper Reaper: Sta... (02/07)

Next Article >>

Sobsequy: Why Some Fri... (02/06)

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